Nadal's serve cost him his 21st GS title

TennisFan3

Talk Tennis Guru
As mentioned before Nadal's serving has been awful in 2021 clay season:
  • Career high double faults per set: this F.O 2021 and much of the clay swing. 8 double faults vs Novak - a record for Nadal in any ATP match.
  • Lower Avg mph on 1st serve. Lower % won on 1st serve. (59% 1st serve pts won, and 40% 2nd serve pts won)
  • Lack of variety on serve. Tennis channel showed placement of serve this year vs last year. He lacks spot serving and very predictable in his patterns - circa 2015-2017.
  • Unable to get cheap points on serve. Repeatedly broken by multiple players all clay season and mauled by Djokovic today.
  • Nadal was continuously under pressure on every service game vs Novak. He started a lot of games with 0-15 and couldn't serve big and finish games.
What the stats do not capture is the 3rd shot in the rally. Which means that the shot Nadal hits after the opponent returns his serve.
In prior years, the 3rd shot from Nadal was usually his forehand, because it was impossible to find his backhand while returning his serve.
Now that the serve is weaker, it's easy to attack Nadal on his backhand with your ROS. Djokovic did that beautifully today.

Statistically for the entire RG 2021 SF Nadal hit 236 forehands and 232 backhands. Which means the ratio is roughly 50-50. In most of Nadal's match wins (RG 2020 and earlier years) - he hits way more forehands than backhands.
Even after serving, Nadal was unable to get the ball on his forehand and do damage. This is ultimately what cost him the match.

Djokovic and Federer have recognized the importance of serve. Novak hired Ivanisevic and is serving amazing in 2021. It was key to Novak's win in AO 2021 and what is likely to be RG 2021. Nadal has not made any similar improvements, and has actually regressed.

Nadal has had an ATG career. But he needs help and needs to improve his serve ASAP. The serve would be even more critical in non clay slams - if Nadal wants to have chances to add to his tally.
 
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