Post Big 3 pecking order?

[beltsman]

What will the pecking order be post-Big 3? Zverev, Shapo, Thiem, Tsitsipas, Medvedev, Rublev, Wolf, FAA, Khachanov, Fritz, Opelka, and others. How do you see the pecking order shaping up? Who will be Tier I, II, etc?

 

[Third Serve]

Tier 1: Thiem, Zverev, Medvedev, Tsitsipas, maybe FAA. I could see any of these guys being the dominant force. Had doubts about Zverev but he seems to be improving at Bo5 and Thiem has started to build a solid career outside of RG already. My guess is Thiem will win a lot for a couple of years and then slowly fade out.

Tier 2: Shapovalov, Khachanov, Rublev, maybe FAA

Tier 3: Fritz, Opelka, Tiafoe, De Minaur, and most of the rest of the next gen.

 

[James P]

It's going to change over time

Tier 1 2020-2023: Medvedev, Thiem, Zverev, and Tsitsipas in some order in the top 5
Tier 2 2020-2023: Rublev, Shapovalov, Auger-Aliassime in the top 10
Tier 3 2020-2023: Coric, De Minaur, Khachanov, Opelka, Fritz in the top 20

Tier 1 2023-2026: Auger-Aliassime, Tsitsipas, Zverev, Sinner in the top 5
Tier 2 2023-2026: Medvedev, Thiem, Rublev, Shapovalov, Alcaraz in the top 10
Tier 3 2023-2026: De Minaur, Coric, Khachanov, Opelka, Fritz in the top 20

Some Lost Gen guys will stick around and fill in some of the other spots, or perhaps a newer youth movement behind FAA/Sinner/Alcaraz

 

[BGod]

Thiem will likely dominate for a few years. On clay and hard. Guys like Raonic, Shap, Med, Khachanov probably contend on grass but largely wildcard.

Zverev, Tsitsipas underachieve

 

[MeatTornado]

By the time all 3 of them are totally done that group of names might be irrelevant.

 

[TheNachoMan]

Tier 2 2023-2026: Medvedev,

Why do you think Medvedev will decline by 2023?

 

[James P]

Why do you think Medvedev will decline by 2023?

I don't think his career is going to be short lived or that he'll necessarily decline, just that there are a lot of moving parts and he's one of the older NextGen guys, so he'll probably settle in to the lower half of the top 10 in 4 or 5 years from now.