Rafa is apparently in trouble

[NoleFam]

I tend to listen to Mouratoglou's points ever since he predicted Djokovic's demise at the beginning of 2018 AO. He was able to analyze Djokovic's past court positioning, serve speed and groundstroke speed and said Djokovic was considerably vulnerable compared to previous years when he won. Lo and behold, he was out in a few days. He also showed how much better Djokovic was than everyone else this year so that was twice he was right. He does good analysis when he is breaking these players down but I don't know if this means Nadal will not race to another title here. Is Nadal really tiring in these intense matches? I missed his match today so I'm the dark on how he even played, so this is a question that remains to be seen.

 

[Zebrev]

Sounds crazy, but I think Federer might end up a tougher semifinal opponent than Thiem here.

I believe Djokovic is the favourite, even more so, because he only has to face one of Fedal - not both.

 

[haqq777]

Mouratoglou also has a horse in the race; Tsitsipas trains at his academy and Patrick is often on court coaching him at practices. This could also just be mind games. I mean sure, Rafa's movement is not what it used to be but he is still a force to reckon with on clay.

 

[bjsnider]

The only thing with which I take exception is Djokovic being excluded from the same age/endurance issue. There's an 11 month age gap between Nadal and Djokovic. Some of the bloom of youth wears off thirtysomething athletes, there's no question. I can see a younger player with superior fitness outlasting them at this point.

 

[Deleted member 77403]

I tend to listen to Mouratoglou's points ever since he predicted Djokovic's demise at the beginning of 2018 AO. He was able to analyze Djokovic's past court positioning, serve speed and groundstroke speed and said Djokovic was considerably vulnerable compared to previous years when he won. Lo and behold, he was out in a few days. He also showed how much better Djokovic was than everyone else this year so that was twice he was right. He does good analysis when he is breaking these players down but I don't know if this means Nadal will not race to another title here. Is Nadal really tiring in these intense matches? I missed his match today so I'm the dark on how he even played, so this is a question that remains to be seen.

I saw the match live end to end, and Nadal didn't look tired to me at all. The first two sets were over too quick to even think Nadal would be getting fatigued. He won the first two sets with loss of only four games. What happened in the third set was a poor game plan from Nadal, he kept feeding Goffin balls into his forehand, and after a while, the Belgian started to open up his shoulders and find his timing on that wing, and was unleashing massive bullets. Now what was not looking good was how someone like Goffin was able to push through Nadal with his level of firepower, and this is where the whole movement things comes into play, a peak Nadal would be getting more balls back into play, even if he was executing a bad game plan. Nadal's court positioning was off in that third set, it wasn't set up for defense, which is what he needed from the way he was tactically playing that set.

Goffin struggled to keep that level up in the fourth set, and Nadal changed tactics and started to hit more to the backhand, eventually being able to control the ball and getting a key break which he held onto, though Goffin refused to go away at that point.

 

[Gary Duane]

Tsitsipas and Thiem won't do it and Djokovic is a 50/50 shot at best. So saying Nadal is in trouble is probably a bit inaccurate.

Moratoglou is Mr captain obvious. He's also the one that said Djokovic could beat Federer's record (obviously Djokovic can do it that's not news, but it doesn't mean he will). And it's the same here. Everyone knows Nadal isn't quite as good as he used to be and that he can't go 5 hrs in 2-3 matches and expect to win tournaments anymore. That doesn't mean he'll lose here.

More like Mr. Hand! (signals)

 

[NoleFam]

I saw the match live end to end, and Nadal didn't look tired to me at all. The first two sets were over too quick to even think Nadal would be getting fatigued. He won the first two sets with loss of only four games. What happened in the third set was a poor game plan from Nadal, he kept feeding Goffin balls into his forehand, and after a while, the Belgian started to open up his shoulders and find his timing on that wing, and was unleashing massive bullets. Now what was not looking good was how someone like Goffin was able to push through Nadal with his level of firepower, and this is where the whole movement things comes into play, a peak Nadal would be getting more balls back into play, even if he was executing a bad game plan. Nadal's court positioning was off in that third set, it wasn't set up for defense, which is what he needed from the way he was tactically playing that set.

Goffin struggled to keep that level up in the fourth set, and Nadal changed tactics and started to hit more to the backhand, eventually being able to control the ball and getting a key break which he held onto, though Goffin refused to go away at that point.

Ok I see so it seems Mouratoglou is jumping the gun. I will say defensively, Nadal is not as great as he used to be. Even so, it is so hard to sustain the level needed to take 3 sets from him on clay. His movement is exposed the least on this surface so that's the main reason. I do think Goffin may have given some hope to some people in the draw though.

 

[Lleytonstation]

Yeah full of Fed fans crapping in their adult diapers knowing Fed is going to lose

Not at all, I know Fed will lose and I am okay with that. If he reaches the semi's that's a positive. Even if he loses to Nadal (which he would), it wouldn't change a thing. It would just show why their H2H is so lopsided, because Fed reaches SF and F on all surfaces all the time. Not just on Clay.

 

[sredna42]

Moral victory: Nadal.

 

[Deleted member 77403]

Ok I see so it seems Mouratoglou is jumping the gun. I will say defensively, Nadal is not as great as he used to be. Even so, it is so hard to sustain the level needed to take 3 sets from him on clay. His movement is the least exposed on this surface so that's the main reason. I do think Goffin may have given some hope to some people in the draw though.

Correct, and the one person who was watching closely with a growing smile would have been Djokovic. Novak has been preparing his forehand for a potential match up with Nadal here, I know you and I have had this discussion, but it begs being brought up here to illustrate the blood is in the water analogy. Novak has purposefully being dancing around his backhand to bring more and more forehands into play, and if look at the trajectory of the ball, you can see he is looking to move the ball up and away off the court, exposing the angles early on and then adjusting his stroke mechanics to flatten out the ball especially inside out, that shot in particular is designed to attack the Nadal forehand out wide and open up the court.

If he is watching Nadal play poor tactics against Goffin by overplaying to the forehand, then Djokovic will punish him for it, if they play. Nadal will be forced to go at the backhand of Djokovic, which automatically plays into Novak's main strength and which is firing beautifully here. Novak will see that Nadal's court positioning is not ideal to play defense if someone is giving him a forehand assault, Rafa was struggling with Goffin's forehand DTLs today, Novak has increased the amount of times he is using that shot himself if you saw the past two matches.

 

[Bhagi Katbamna]

I won't believe Morgatalu until I see the hand signals.

 

[NoleFam]

Correct, and the one person who was watching closely with a growing smile would have been Djokovic. Novak has been preparing his forehand for a potential match up with Nadal here, I know you and I have had this discussion, but it begs being brought up here to illustrate the blood is in the water analogy. Novak has purposefully being dancing around his backhand to bring more and more forehands into play, and if look at the trajectory of the ball, you can see he is looking to move the ball up and away off the court, exposing the angles early on and then adjusting his stroke mechanics to flatten out the ball especially inside out, that shot in particular is designed to attack the Nadal forehand out wide and open up the court.

If he is watching Nadal play poor tactics against Goffin by overplaying to the forehand, then Djokovic will punish him for it, if they play. Nadal will be forced to go at the backhand of Djokovic, which automatically plays into Novak's main strength and which is firing beautifully here. Novak will see that Nadal's court positioning is not ideal to play defense if someone is giving him a forehand assault, Rafa was struggling with Goffin's forehand DTLs today, Novak has increased the amount of times he is using that shot himself if you saw the past two matches.

Novak's forehand looks lethal right now. He is doing that whipping motion with it again which I haven't really seen since 2016 maybe? Maybe AO final? It's amazing how much he improved that shot from the jerky inconsistent forehand it was at the beginning of his career which lacked depth a lot of the time. To me if he wants to win this title, that is the one shot that must be firing on all cylinders. You are right. He has been running around that backhand in both matches this tournament. Bingo on everything else in this paragraph, and I couldn't have said it better.

If he plays too Djokovic's forehand too much, he will put himself in trouble. I think he should play Djokovic's backhand more because it's harder to attack from that corner than if Djokovic is standing there controlling the center with a whipping forehand. Then if he goes to the backhand too much, Novak can pin him into that forehand corner and open up the court. Nadal's best bet is to mix it up and keep Novak guessing, and keep him off balance, then go for his kill shots. I'm getting ahead of myself. It's just the 3rd round.

 

[Otacon]

I'd like to remind that Nadal, Federer and Djokovic are not Gods and it is therefore not blasphemous to dissect their games

 

[Deleted member 77403]

Novak's forehand looks lethal right now. He is doing that whipping motion with it again which I haven't really seen since 2016 maybe? Maybe AO final? It's amazing how much he improved that shot from the jerky inconsistent forehand it was at the beginning of his career which lacked depth a lot of the time. To me if he wants to win this title, that is the one shot that must be firing on all cylinder. You are right. He has been running around that backhand in both matches this tournament. Bingo on everything else in this paragraph, and I couldn't have said it better.

If he plays to Djokovic's forehand to much, he will put himself in trouble. I think he should play Djokovic's backhand more because it's harder to attack from that corner than if Djokovic is standing there controlling the center with a whipping forehand. Then if he goes to the backhand too much, Novak can pin him into that forehand corner and open up the court. Nadal's best bet is to mix it and keep Novak uessing, and keep him off balance, then go for his kill shots. I'm getting ahead of myself. It's just the 3rd round.

Nadal will have no choice but to mix it up, Djokovic is preparing an assault from both sides, it is very clear he is sharpening everything up for Nadal. Another thing worth noting down, is the almost ease with which Novak is moving around the ball to hit his forehand, this is conscious decision he is making during the actual rally, almost asking himself the question, Can I run around my backhand again without compromising my position or sacrificing my leverage? And when the answer is a yes, he is not hesitating even for a second to do just that, and bring in a barrage of massive forehands into the mix, on which he can impart a lot more spin when he wants to. Nadal on the other hand is going the opposite way with his movement, he is trying to bring more backhands into play, because of his diminished movement and the tactical strategy to try to stay up and center in the court. Djokovic wants Nadal to hit more backhands from that side, that has always been part of the gameplan, it is about how well Nadal can execute them under pressure that becomes the ice breaker between them.

It is only third round, but always fun to talk this stuff and share what we have seen.

LOL if they don't even make it, at least we have a hypothetical match between them.

 

[NoleFam]

Nadal will have no choice but to mix it up, Djokovic is preparing an assault from both sides, it is very clear he is sharpening everything up for Nadal. Another thing worth noting down, is the almost ease with which Novak is moving around to the ball to hit his forehand, this is conscious decision he is making during the actual rally, almost asking himself the question, Can I run around my backhand again without compromising my position or sacrificing my leverage? And when the answer is a yes, he is not hesitating even for a second to do just that, and bring in a barrage of massive forehands into the mix, on which he can impart a lot more spin when he wants to. Nadal on the other hand is going the opposite way with his movement, he is trying to bring more backhands into play, because of his diminished movement and the tactical strategy to try to stay up and center in the court. Djokovic wants Nadal to hit more backhands from that side, that has always been part of the gameplan, it is about how well Nadal can execute them under pressure that becomes the ice breaker between them.

It is only third round, but always fun to talk this stuff and share what we have seen.

LOL if they don't even make it, at least we have a hypothetical match between them.

Agreed on mixing it up. I actually thought Nadal did an excellent job of this in their Wimbledon match. Lots of slices slowing down the rally and then pummeling forehands every chance he got. He was very very aggressive in that match and that is really the right tactic for Nadal to play against Djokovic. It's just that on clay, the balls keep coming back. I do think Djokovic is fine tuning both sides for the big boys and ultimately Nadal if it comes to that, and he wants to lead with the forehand based on what I've seen so far. From Nadal's standpoint, he has to take it to Djokovic and not let him control that center. When Djokovic does that, your chances of beating him are slim. He should employ more of the same strategy he had in Rome but can he play like that again for 4 or 5 sets straight is the question.

That's true. We always have our hypothetical TTW matches if we don't get match we want.

 

[Deleted member 77403]

Agreed on mixing it up. I actually thought Nadal did an excellent job of this in their Wimbledon match. Lots of slices slowing down the rally and then pummeling forehands every chance he got. He was very very aggressive in that match and that is really the right tactic for Nadal to play against Djokovic. It's just that on clay, the balls keep coming back. I do think Djokovic is fine tuning both sides for the big boys and ultimately Nadal if it comes to that, and he wants to lead with the forehand based on what I've seen so far. From Nadal's standpoint, he has to take it to Djokovic and not let him control that center. When Djokovic does that, your chances of beating him are slim. He should employ more of the same strategy he had in Rome but can he play like that again for 4 or 5 sets straight is the question.

That's true. We always have our hypothetical TTW matches if we don't get match we want.

You said it, because it is clay, Novak will get more balls back from Nadal's hitting, unlike at Wimbledon. And yes, it is about who controls the middle and gets the other moving that will ultimately decide who wins should they play, Nadal on this court is very good at controlling the middle of the court, due to how he leaps into that position from the back of the court. It is not really lateral movement to get into that position, something he needs to do on grass or hard, but it is more forward movement, due to his return position, it allows him to get into the center quicker and keep his opponent back and to the side with a high bouncing return. That first shot from Nadal is always key on PC, Novak knows this.

 

[NoleFam]

You said it, because it is clay, Novak will get more balls back from Nadal's hitting, unlike at Wimbledon. And yes, it is about who controls the middle and gets the other moving that will ultimately decide who wins should they play, Nadal on this court is very good at controlling the middle of the court, due to how he leaps into that position from the back of the court. It is not really lateral movement to get into that position, something he needs to do on grass or hard, but it is more forward movement, due to his return position, it allows him to get into the center quicker and keep his opponent back and to the side with a high bouncing return. That first shot from Nadal is always key on PC, Novak knows this.

Yes Rafa is the best at controlling the center on clay and especially on Chatrier. The ultimate challenge is to take away the center from him and to be able to not give him those angles he likes. Rafa can get incredible angles on that court because he can stand so far back to retrieve and move in like you said to cut off shorter balls and just destroy his opponents with his kill shots. The one thing is that he is slower so if you want to beat him, you have to find a way to somewhat exploit that, even on clay. To beat Rafa on that court, you need everything working starting with the serve.

 

[Deleted member 77403]

Yes Rafa is the best at controlling the center on clay and especially on Chatrier. The ultimate challenge is to take away the center from him and to be able to not give him those angles he likes. Rafa can get incredible angles on that court because he can stand so far back to retrieve and move in like you said to cut off shorter balls and just destroy his opponents with his kill shots. The one thing is that he is slower so if you want to beat him, you have to find a way to somewhat exploit that, even on clay. To beat Rafa on that court, you need everything working starting with the serve.

There you have it folks.

 

[Dondon]

That flaky coach of serbrena meltdown fire starter

 

[Harry_Wild]

Patrick Mouratoglou is trying to be reinforce his men's player that he is coaching - Stefanos Tsitsipas psy and to try to put some doubt into Rafa's head.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Mouratoglou

https://www.**************.org/tenn...-better-than-roger-federer-nadal-mouratoglou/

 

[Third Serve]

Yeah full of Fed fans crapping in their adult diapers knowing Fed is going to lose

God bless you

 

[MichaelNadal]

I mean isn't he the guy that's been running around like a bunny since 05? It's a miracle he's still as good as he is.

 

[donquijote]

I heard that Rafa is apparently in trouble because there is no more space in his home to keep the 18th Slam trophy.

He is obviously in deep trouble after your post.

 

[beltsman]

Bull has zero chance of losing this RG lol

 

[Sentinel]

Are you serious? Explain to me exactly what is so ridiculous about this thread. The OP only posted an observation from a tennis coach/analyst.

After this gem from you, you shouldn't be talking about ridiculous threads being deleted.

https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...as-pouille-4th-round-matchup-incoming.625392/

LOL, touche !!!

 

[duaneeo]

Surely today's Nadal doesn't have the physical endurance of yesteryear Nadal. And, his physical endurance has rarely been tested at Roland Garros, so it would definitely be something he's not used to.

 

[victorcruz]

rAfA iS aPpArEnTlY iN tRoUbLe DoE

 

[vive le beau jeu !]

In English, we would call this a clickbait

the title made me think they finally caught him...

 

[Deleted member 743561]

.

 

[irishnadalfan1983]

So the guy is slowing down as he approaches his 34th year, how amazing...!!!

Exactly - what an insight

 

[March31]

Nadal and Djokovic are stamina beasts, which will allow them to be competitive in their late 30s. Federer has never been the same physical beast as Nadalovic, so don't know if Federer's stamina will last so much as Nadal's and Djokovic's ones.

But Fed IS being competitive in his late thirties.

 

[hipolymer]

I tend to listen to Mouratoglou's points ever since he predicted Djokovic's demise at the beginning of 2018 AO. He was able to analyze Djokovic's past court positioning, serve speed and groundstroke speed and said Djokovic was considerably vulnerable compared to previous years when he won. Lo and behold, he was out in a few days. He also showed how much better Djokovic was than everyone else this year so that was twice he was right. He does good analysis when he is breaking these players down but I don't know if this means Nadal will not race to another title here. Is Nadal really tiring in these intense matches? I missed his match today so I'm the dark on how he even played, so this is a question that remains to be seen.

link to Mouratoglou's djokovic analysis?

 

[octobrina10]

Patrick Mouratoglou has just made an interesting observation on Eurosport.

He has indeed noticed that since the beginning of the year, Nadal tends to start his matches at full throttle in order to finish off his opponent as soon as possible because he no longer has the physical endurance of yesteryear to wear them down.

Today against Groffin, I think we've clearly seen this pattern. But David is not good enough to sustain a high level of play for 5 sets.

Bottom line is if there's someone who can stay with Rafa for more than 3 hours, he’s got a good chance to wear him down and beat him.
Someone like Tsitsipas, Thiem or Djokovic.

It is a well-known fact that Carlos Moya has wanted Rafa to shorten the points and spend less time on the court:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1133683762380906497

 

[Sentinel]

the title made me think they finally caught him...

Haha !!!!

 

[Sentinel]

It is a well-known fact that Carlos Moya has wanted Rafa to shorten the points and spend less time on the court:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1133683762380906497

Good !
So now the point will be shorter than the serve routine

 

[Nadal_Django]

Lol

 

[World Beater]

Nadal has rarely been pushed to his physical limit in a bo5 match because most players cant actually stay with nadal to even get to 5 sets.

4 sets with nadal is already sufficiently taxing and most players can't handle it.

 

[Raining hopes]

I would say much the same of Federer. Neither of them can any longer sustain repeated long matches. They need to get the job done as quickly as possible and against the lower ranked players this is what they now tend to do.

Fraud can't keep his level intact for over a set and a half. And his highest highs aren't even that formidable now to begin with.

 

[Sentinel]

Fraud can't keep his level intact for over a set and a half.

And yet plenty of you haters accuse him of being onto something since he is still playing at 37+.

I love it how you guys contradict yourselves LOL.

 

[junior74]

I think he has a point. Rafa is playing shorter points nowadays. Lost his last 5 setters against Fedovic.

Losing a set to a below average Goffin is not a good sign - although some might say it is

 

[Raining hopes]

And yet plenty of you haters accuse him of being onto something since he is still playing at 37+.

I love it how you guys contradict yourselves LOL.

I am actually a fan. Since 2004-05.
The biggest contradiction is I like Djokovic too. Maybe because I started supporting him when he wasn't a threat to Fraud .

 

[Sentinel]

It is a well-known fact

I don't know whether I am more tickled by the fact that you call something tweeted on 29 May (roughly 2 days ago) a "well-known fact", or that you bold-faced "well-known".
How do you know it is "well-known" ? Is it taught in school or university ?
Does everyone follow Carlos Moya's tweets ?

(Just messing with you, don't get offended. It's a well-known fact that I mess with a lot of people )

 

[Sentinel]

Losing a set to a below average Goffin is not a good sign - although some might say it is

Did someone actually say its a good sign ?
Of what, that he can go for four sets ?

 

[junior74]

Did someone actually say its a good sign ?
Of what, that he can go for four sets ?

Our old friend @vive le beau jeu ! - among many - might see it as a good sign, A New Hope

 

[octobrina10]

I don't know whether I am more tickled by the fact that you call something tweeted on 29 May (roughly 2 days ago) a "well-known fact", or that you bold-faced "well-known".
How do you know it is "well-known" ? Is it taught in school or university ?
Does everyone follow Carlos Moya's tweets ?

(Just messing with you, don't get offended. It's a well-known fact that I mess with a lot of people )

C.Moya has wanted Rafa to play more aggressively since CM joined the Rafa team.
Sport.es, December 23, 2018 (Via Google Translate): "Since Moya's arrival, Rafa has become a more aggressive player."
https://www.sport.es/es/noticias/tenis/equipo-rafa-nadal-7022905

 

[Otacon]

I think he has a point. Rafa is playing shorter points nowadays. Lost his last 5 setters against Fedovic.

Losing a set to a below average Goffin is not a good sign - although some might say it is

In fact, Rafa's 5-setter record has not been good in the last 4 years or so.
He's only 5-7 since 2015.
More worryingly for him, he has not won a single GS since the 2013 FO when taken to 5 sets.
The ultimate challenge of course is to trouble him here, at RG, his last bastion.

 

[merwy]

I think Tsitsipas would get absolutely slaughtered if he gets to play Nadal. I give him absolutely zero chance. Heck, Federer has more chance of beating Nadal at this tournament and that's saying a lot.

 

[Standaa]

The only reason Nadal is trouble is Djokovic.

Take Novak out of it and Nadal is lock for the trophy.

 

[ibbi]

I'm not sure that is a fitness issue so much as a case of mental laziness, but even if it is, if he plays like he did in the first 2 sets against Goffin yesterday against a Thiem or a Tsitsipas they'll both probably be mentally beat up so bad he doesn't then need to be at full force to finish them off. Djokovic is a different issue.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

A bit of an overreaction here. Nadal drops 1 set and people thinks he’s in trouble. I still see him reaching the final for sure. I can only see Djokovic being able to go 3-4 hours to beat him but it’s still a tall order. Nadal is always the favourite at RG with Djoko not far behind in 2nd.