Rublev into Top Ten by end of Roland Garros (Delpo too!)

[Meles]

Here is the current rankings projection of a sort for the future top 10 with notes on the likely big movers (the players current points less their points from early 2017 through RG; players who had a great 2nd half to 2017 naturally up higher on this list):
1 Roger Federer 5560 (unlikely to play clay)
2 Rafael Nadal 3730
3 Grigor Dimitrov 3730
4 Alexander Zverev 2740 (solid ranking even with the loss of 1000 points for Rome)
5 Marin Cilic 2625
6 David Goffin 2200 (will move up rankings during clay season)
7 Kevin Anderson 2185 (Anderson makes top 10 with good early hard court season)
8 Juan Martin Del Potro 2080 (A shoe in if he's not injured)
9 Jack Sock 1880
10 Sam Querrey 1655
11 John Isner 1610
12 Adrian Mannarino 1290
13 Roberto Bautista Agut 1260
14 Diego Schwartzman 1205 (On the move upwards with a good clay season)
15 Damir Dzumhur 1180 (On the move upwards with a good clay season)
16 Lucas Pouille 1165
17 Filip Krajinovic 1117 (On the move upwards with a good clay season)
18 Nick Kyrgios 1110 (unlikely to play great on clay so Auz Open huge)
19 Andrey Rublev 1091 (SEE BELOW)
20 Dominic Thiem 1075 (likely to have another great clay season, top 20 player off clay)
21 Tomas Berdych 1045
22 Gilles Muller 1015

Rublev is playing really well to start out 2018 and has clearly had an excellent conditioning session over the off-season training with Thiem's group. Rublev's serve game is still a relative weakness, but his return game has been on the rise for several years and the early signs show Rublev with much more stamina and vastly better footwork to start out 2018. Here is his progression on return (forgive the reused graphic):

The bolded above show Rublev's impressive progress over the last few years with return points won. Chung and Coric are more typical for developing players with return games generally not showing great leaps early in a player's career and then leveling out and declining after age 24. The 6' 2", scrawny Rublev is a very, very different. His numbers have been building based on a strong 2nd return game where he just punishes lesser serves. Now in early 2018, Rublev has made a huge leap forward in stamina and footwork from just a few months ago (doubting this?, catch his recent match with a goating wall of rebounding Pella in Doha where Rublev turns it on at the end of the match.)

What this means is Rublev is going to have another jump in his return numbers this year and will have himself a top notch return game (much better than Kyrgios, Zverev, and just about all the rest save Thiem who has improved in early 2018 markedly.) Rublev's is an odd return game mind you because its really driven by 2nd return.

Even without a great serve (and his first serve kept him in the match with Pella by the skin of his teeth), this won't matter nearly as much on clay. Rublev has all the tools to have a great clay season and squeak into the top 10 by the conclusion of Roland Garros. If Rublev beats the wiley and resurgent Monfils in the Doha final tomorrow he'll move up to 15 on this list and will only need to gain about 700 points on Querrey and Sock to pass them by the end of RG.

Feel free to comment on any player listed above and their likely ranking come grass season.

 

[mike danny]

By the way, where is Delpo? Why isn't he playing any warm-up?

 

[Meles]

 

[Meles]

By the way, where is Delpo? Why isn't he playing any warm-up?

He and Sock will be playing Auckland next week.

 

[Zebrev]

I'm sure he will make top ten at some point, but I don't want him there.

 

[Meles]

I'm sure he will make top ten at some point, but I don't want him there.

Don't worry too much. Rublev may not stay there if he makes it before grass season as he's defending QF at US Open and other points. Zedbot's giant serves should keep the burgeoning Rublev return game at bay. Rublev probably has the footspeed now and strokes to win neutral rallies so their future matches will be quite competitive.

 

[Red Rick]

I'm sure he will make top ten at some point, but I don't want him there.

I want Zverev out. But we can't always have what we want right.

How about a Rublev-Zverev Aussie Open QF?

 

[metsman]

Finally a reasonable thread about NextGen

 

[Red Rick]

I was just getting hopeful for Rublev but then the Meles came in and ****ed it big time.

Seriously though, RG is crazy early. I was looking at top 15 by years end, with top 20 as a more conservative estimation.

 

[Meles]

Finally a reasonable thread about NextGen

I know you like FAA and Shaps pretty well, but Rublev too.

I've seen some back a few years ago say his forehand technique fairly close to Federer's (game style sure isn't).

Keep your eyes on Tsitsipas whose blown my mind with his early play in 2018; he's like some kind of super stretch Federer and he too is pretty good at trading with the ball bashers without being one himself.

 

[Red Rick]

By the way, where is Delpo? Why isn't he playing any warm-up?

Plays Auckland

 

[mike danny]

Plays Auckland

I forgot about Auckland.

Why play a warm-up precisely 1 week before the AO? Doesn't seem like a smart decision.

 

[Red Rick]

I forgot about Auckland.

Why play a warm-up precisely 1 week before the AO? Doesn't seem like a smart decision.

Excuse to do the whole tired/possum routine.

 

[Meles]

I was just getting hopeful for Rublev but then the Meles came in and ****ed it big time.

Seriously though, RG is crazy early. I was looking at top 15 by years end, with top 20 as a more conservative estimation.

It sounds crazy early, but he has that ATP 250 win and QF at US Open and possibly tomorrow another 250 win. Rublev is good on clay and his fledgling serve game won't hurt him as much on clay, so I'm projecting him to crack the top ten and then he could very well fall out of it if his serving doesn't get better. Rublev just needs 700 points unless Kyrgios makes deep run at Auz Open. This is all possible because you'll notice that Djoko, Murray, and Stanimal are pretty much out of the running for top 10 by the end of RG. Rublev just has to pass Sock which really isn't a big ask given Sock doesn't play some of the big clay events (ditto Querrey).

 

[Red Rick]

It sounds crazy early, but he has that ATP 250 win and QF at US Open and possibly tomorrow another 250 win. Rublev is good on clay and his fledgling serve game won't hurt him as much on clay, so I'm projecting him to crack the top ten and then he could very well fall out of it if his serving doesn't get better. Rublev just needs 700 points unless Kyrgios makes deep run at Auz Open. This is all possible because you'll notice that Djoko, Murray, and Stanimal are pretty much out of the running for top 10 by the end of RG. Rublev just has to pass Sock which really isn't a big ask given Sock doesn't play some of the big clay events (ditto Querrey).

Sock doesn't defend too much before the end of the clay season. If Kyrgios is serious this year there's no way Rublev passes him in like ever.

You're basically talking about Rublev doubling his ATP points in 10 tournaments.

 

[Meles]

I forgot about Auckland.

Why play a warm-up precisely 1 week before the AO? Doesn't seem like a smart decision.

Sock has done well in Auckland, but perhaps not the best move for him as he's a bit of a threat at Auz in my mind.

Delpo, Anderson, and Cilic really not the best at Auz? Flat hitting works at Auz, but these guys like higher balls which is not the case on plexicushion; that is my best guess.

 

[Meles]

Sock doesn't defend too much before the end of the clay season. If Kyrgios is serious this year there's no way Rublev passes him in like ever.

You're basically talking about Rublev doubling his ATP points in 10 tournaments.

Kyrgios may have a good year, but chances are that Rublev will make up ground on clay. If Kyrgios does do really well then the bar is making up 900 points on Delpo. I'm expecting Rublev to be probably the fifth best clay courter?:
1-2. Nadal/Thiem
3. Goffin
4. Zverev
5. Rublev

Perhaps I'm missing someone who would be better on clay, but can't think of anyone. 30 years old is really, really old on clay so even Wawa, Muzziah, and Djoko having a nice comeback will not be as good. Expecting Rublev to check in with 42% return points won on clay which is very solid. Rublev could be approaching 53% points won on clay which is excellent especially for his age.

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah, and the 5th best clay courter is based on nothing.

 

[BorgCash]

Rublev should control his temper to get into top 10.

 

[Meles]

Rublev should control his temper to get into top 10.

Pretty much a check so far in 2018.

 

[Red Rick]

Pretty much a check so far in 2018.

I want him to never control it and reach top 10 anyway.

 

[Sysyphus]

Expecting Rublev to check in with 42% return points won on clay which is very solid. Rublev could be approaching 53% points won on clay which is excellent especially for his age.

Why are you expecting this? That's very high. He'll be playing tougher opposition this year on clay given his ranking. He'll need more effective second serving (and 1st percentage) to live up to your great white hype

 

[Meles]

Yeah, and the 5th best clay courter is based on nothing.

Rublev dominated in Umag, his last clay tournament. As you well know he's a much better player just six months later.

Clay leaders on points (does not include qualifiers or challengers) from Ultimate Tennis Stats:
1 ESP ESP Rafael Nadal 58.28%
2 CRO CRO Marin Cilic 54.78%
3 AUT AUT Dominic Thiem 53.87%
4 SRB SRB Novak Djokovic 53.37%
5 FRA FRA Richard Gasquet 52.99%
6 ESP ESP Roberto Carballes Baena 52.96%
7 CAN CAN Milos Raonic 52.57%
8 GER GER Alexander Zverev 52.53%
9 RUS RUS Andrey Rublev 52.34%
10 GER GER Philipp Kohlschreiber 52.26%
11 FRA FRA Jo Wilfried Tsonga 52.20%
12 BEL BEL David Goffin 52.19%
13 KOR KOR Hyeon Chung 52.19%
14 GBR GBR Andy Murray 52.15%
15 SUI SUI Stan Wawrinka 52.13%
16 FRA FRA Lucas Pouille 52.12%
17 ESP ESP Fernando Verdasco 51.84%
18 ESP ESP Pablo Carreno Busta 51.79%
19 ARG ARG Leonardo Mayer 51.67%
20 ARG ARG Diego Sebastian Schwartzman 51.64%

Conservatively its pretty easy to project Rublev 5th best on clay for 2018. Name players who you see as close or better? Djokovic having a solid return might bump him down to 6. Pouille having a dream season might get ahead of Rublev. One could also go the other way and have Rublev at 3 behind Thiem and Nadal. Rublev beat Goffin and Dimitrov pretty soundly as last year's US Open. I'd be comfortable projecting Rublev ahead of Goffin and Zverev if in a bold mood.

 

[Red Rick]

Rublev dominated in Umag, his last clay tournament. As you well know he's a much better player just six months later.

Clay leaders on points (does not include qualifiers or challengers) from Ultimate Tennis Stats:
1 ESP ESP Rafael Nadal 58.28%
2 CRO CRO Marin Cilic 54.78%
3 AUT AUT Dominic Thiem 53.87%
4 SRB SRB Novak Djokovic 53.37%
5 FRA FRA Richard Gasquet 52.99%
6 ESP ESP Roberto Carballes Baena 52.96%
7 CAN CAN Milos Raonic 52.57%
8 GER GER Alexander Zverev 52.53%
9 RUS RUS Andrey Rublev 52.34%
10 GER GER Philipp Kohlschreiber 52.26%
11 FRA FRA Jo Wilfried Tsonga 52.20%
12 BEL BEL David Goffin 52.19%
13 KOR KOR Hyeon Chung 52.19%
14 GBR GBR Andy Murray 52.15%
15 SUI SUI Stan Wawrinka 52.13%
16 FRA FRA Lucas Pouille 52.12%
17 ESP ESP Fernando Verdasco 51.84%
18 ESP ESP Pablo Carreno Busta 51.79%
19 ARG ARG Leonardo Mayer 51.67%
20 ARG ARG Diego Sebastian Schwartzman 51.64%

Conservatively its pretty easy to project Rublev 5th best on clay for 2018. Name players who you see as close or better? Djokovic having a solid return might bump him down to 6. Pouille having a dream season might get ahead of Rublev. One could also go the other way and have Rublev at 3 behind Thiem and Nadal. Rublev beat Goffin and Dimitrov pretty soundly as last year's US Open. I'd be comfortable projecting Rublev ahead of Goffin and Zverev if in a bold mood.

Have you taken one look at that list. Apart from Nadal topping it it's good for nothing but me wiping my puke off my lap after I drink myself silly tonight

 

[Meles]

Why are you expecting this? He'll be playing tougher opposition this year on clay given his ranking. He'll need more effective second serving (and 1st percentage) to live up to your great white hype

For 2017 tournament full tour level these are the stats for Rublev (no challengers or qualifiers):
Return points won 43.7%

The interesting question will be his effectiveness on serve which we know he's not improved greatly over the off-season. What will happen on clay?
Season was 60.9% serve points won. If we dump to UMAG main draw we hit 64.2%. 64% on serve points would be a big jump from the whole of 2017, but the UMAG improvement in serve numbers was due to his burgeoning ground game which has gone off the charts so far in 2018. If I'm getting crazy on the points, I could see Rublev jumping to 65% points won on serve for clay 2018 and 43% on return, which would be an impressive 54.0% points one and probably good enough for 3rd.

This all makes some sense when you realize how undernourished the Rublev physique has been he's up to 162 pounds now and was 142 pounds two years ago. For a player like Zverev going from 182 to 202 pounds would likely cause a decline in return. For Rublev, he just looks quicker with much more stamina just from this off-season. He could easily put on another 20 pounds and get stronger and quicker on the tennis court. I don't think this return jump is a fluke. The kid is going to be devouring 2nd serves on clay.

 

[Meles]

Have you taken one look at that list. Apart from Nadal topping it it's good for nothing but me wiping my puke off my lap after I drink myself silly tonight

These are tools. You might have said the same thing about Kyrgios, Dimitrov, and Tsonga from their early hard court stats in 2017, but they sure had the results later in the season.

I would never rank off this list, but it tempers one's views and you have to realize the players played etc. Baena really stands out in the list and we had Bolelli in 2016.

Its pretty simple these are the contenders in 2018 for the top so again pick your players you'd rate above Rublev and I'll shoot them down for you.

 

[Gary Duane]

Feel free to comment on any player listed above and their likely ranking come grass season.

First of all, what a shame there is no long list for total points won. You have to get it one by one in ATP profiles, with no decimal. You can probably look it up at TA. But it would be useful to have a list, by year, by surface, by career.

It blows my mind how close to 50% players can be on points and still get in the top 20 or so.

Watching the points race is interesting if you are really tracking ranking, by the numbers. I'd prefer to go by seasons, and there are really four:

HC spring
clay
grass
HC fall

In the end the only thing that matters is who wins the events in each season, and how it ends up as the year finishes.

For instance, Fed is almost guaranteed to make it to #1 soon, but without a win at the AO or significant wins after than, before clay, I really don't care. For Nadal to remain #1 most likely he has to get it back again after RG.

For the rest I'm content to just watch. It really looks like Fed is the "last old man standing", so how his health goes will be crucial to having at least one more great year. Back problems? If they start again, if he has a physical decline, this could for sure be the year everything changes.

I look at last night's match between Mmo and ADM as a sign of things to come. How much has the need for players to be older and stronger just a recency bias thing?

We are mostly likely about to find out in the next couple years.

 

[Meles]

First of all, what a shame there is no long list for total points won. You have to get it one by one in ATP profiles, with no decimal. You can probably look it up at TA. But it would be useful to have a list, by year, by surface, by career.

It blows my mind how close to 50% players can be on points and still get in the top 20 or so.

Watching the points race is interesting if you are really tracking ranking, by the numbers. I'd prefer to go by seasons, and there are really four:

HC spring
clay
grass
HC fall

In the end the only thing that matters is who wins the events in each season, and how it ends up as the year finishes.

For instance, Fed is almost guaranteed to make it to #1 soon, but without a win at the AO or significant wins after than, before clay, I really don't care. For Nadal to remain #1 most likely he has to get it back again after RG.

For the rest I'm content to just watch. It really looks like Fed is the "last old man standing", so how his health goes will be crucial to having at least one more great year. Back problems? If they start again, if he has a physical decline, this could for sure be the year everything changes.

I look at last night's match between Mmo and ADM as a sign of things to come. How much has the need for players to be older and stronger just a recency bias thing?

We are mostly likely about to find out in the next couple years.

Minotaur is under sized and fast. Goffin and Simon (of all people) seem to be doing well on fast Auz warm up surfaces. If they keep the courts really fast the mighty midgets will continue to be a force and it will be harder to perform well on these surfaces for some of the clay courters. The major issue as we've discussed before with faster courts may only be an issue on high bouncing hard; servebots. Most of these guys are tall and like high bounces (Delpo, Cilic, Anderson), but plexicushion bounces a lot lower rendering their flatter shots a lot harder to keep in the court, etc. with them making contact with the ball roughly a foot lower. (Flat shots in play do real well on plexicushion getting to the back wall really fast after bouncing.) I've got no problem with fast Auz Open as it doesn't mean we'll be over run by servebots. I suspect it won't do Kyrgios any favors so Tennis Australia probably would be wise to drop it after this year. These shorter players will struggle on all the other normal speed surfaces save perhaps grass.

 

[Gary Duane]

These are tools. You might have said the same thing about Kyrgios, Dimitrov, and Tsonga from their early hard court stats in 2017, but they sure had the results later in the season.

I would never rank off this list, but it tempers one's views and you have to realize the players played etc. Baena really stands out in the list and we had Bolelli in 2016.

Its pretty simple these are the contenders in 2018 for the top so again pick your players you'd rate above Rublev and I'll shoot them down for you.

About points:

As I've discussed with you, in general you look at points, subtract 50, double, add back to 50 but a little more. Meaning that if you see 51% of points figure on 52% of games, but a bit more.

This is not predictable over very short periods, and the closer we get to 50%, the more unpredictable it becomes.

But if you are looking for future stars, best look to ATGs - before they were ATGs. The problem is that the data early in careers, in the past, was so unreliable, and it MAY be equally unreliable now.

Example:

Points for Fed, all surfaces, 2000. 50.4, according to TA. My data, from the ATP, says 50.40. In other words, a match.

Federer finally broke into the top 50 in March of that year.

He did not break into the top 20 until a year later. But he did not break into the top 10 until May of 2002.

His points for 2002: 52.65

So for any of the younger players you are tracking, look for a jump in points, which will push a jump in games, which will signal a jump in winning events.

Don't bother hyping anyone until those points clearly go up.

 

[Gary Duane]

Minotaur is under sized and fast. Goffin and Simon (of all people) seem to be doing well on fast Auz warm up surfaces. If they keep the courts really fast the mighty midgets will continue to be a force and it will be harder to perform well on these surfaces for some of the clay courters. The major issue as we've discussed before with faster courts may only be an issue on high bouncing hard; servebots. Most of these guys are tall and like high bounces (Delpo, Cilic, Anderson), but plexicushion bounces a lot lower rendering their flatter shots a lot harder to keep in the court, etc. with them making contact with the ball roughly a foot lower. (Flat shots in play do real well on plexicushion getting to the back wall really fast after bouncing.) I've got no problem with fast Auz Open as it doesn't mean we'll be over run by servebots. I suspect it won't do Kyrgios any favors so Tennis Australia probably would be wise to drop it after this year. These shorter players will struggle on all the other normal speed surfaces save perhaps grass.

Not so sure shorter players will struggle more on clay, but for sure on high bouncing HCs. Because the bounce is longer and therefore gives players more time on clay, they have more time to adjust to either taking the ball way back or stepping in more.

For all surfaces other than clay I think the issue of high bounce is huge, and I don't like it. Perhaps people who tinker with the surfaces realize that, on some level.

In the end the "speed" of a surface is mostly related to the time the ball is in the air, from the moment it bounces until it is hit. The horizontal component is about speed of the ball, but a ball that bounces 3 feet into the air is in the air for the same amount of time regardless of how quickly it takes off. There is an obvious change in reaction time, but the feeling of no time to get to the ball is mostly linked to low bounce, which is why grass continues to play "fast" but is "slower" than it used to be, because the bounce is higher.

I'm not sure, but it is possible that the highest bounce, on average, is on clay? Or is it just that the ball does not move as fast horizontally, so that players are mainly reacting to the position of the ball? Looking, it seems to me that on clay, because the ball does not move as fast horizontally that players have more time to adjust to the exact height of the bounce, that they prefer. Whereas on fast HCs, when the bounc is low, it skips through so fast that all that is impossible.

I'm not sure.

But I still think that short players have very good chances on clay. I don't expect a guy like Schwartzman to have a problem on it, and is it possible that if we had average heights for great clay court players, the figures might be smaller?

 

[BorgCash]

Seems to me that he begins to play better now and control himself better as well - it's very high %-age of connection for him. at least what i watched these days.

 

[Meles]

Not so sure shorter players will struggle more on clay, but for sure on high bouncing HCs. Because the bounce is longer and therefore gives players more time on clay, they have more time to adjust to either taking the ball way back or stepping in more.

For all surfaces other than clay I think the issue of high bounce is huge, and I don't like it. Perhaps people who tinker with the surfaces realize that, on some level.

In the end the "speed" of a surface is mostly related to the time the ball is in the air, from the moment it bounces until it is hit. The horizontal component is about speed of the ball, but a ball that bounces 3 feet into the air is in the air for the same amount of time regardless of how quickly it takes off. There is an obvious change in reaction time, but the feeling of no time to get to the ball is mostly linked to low bounce, which is why grass continues to play "fast" but is "slower" than it used to be, because the bounce is higher.

I'm not sure, but it is possible that the highest bounce, on average, is on clay? Or is it just that the ball does not move as fast horizontally, so that players are mainly reacting to the position of the ball? Looking, it seems to me that on clay, because the ball does not move as fast horizontally that players have more time to adjust to the exact height of the bounce, that they prefer. Whereas on fast HCs, when the bounc is low, it skips through so fast that all that is impossible.

I'm not sure.

But I still think that short players have very good chances on clay. I don't expect a guy like Schwartzman to have a problem on it, and is it possible that if we had average heights for great clay court players, the figures might be smaller?

Replied with a new thread on this because I got stuck and can't respond in this thread till that response cleared.
https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/predicting-surface-success.607322/

 

[Meles]

Seems to me that he begins to play better now and control himself better as well - it's very high %-age of connection for him. at least what i watched these days.

 

[Meles]

Well Rublev lost to Monfils today so he's got another 100 points to go. The difference was Rublev was exhausted from SF and Monfils had a bye; turn the conditions around and Rublev probably wins easily. Rublev in Auckland next and had the misfortune to draw the other red hot NextGen player Tsitsipas in the first round FFS.

We'll see how Angrey does versus Sock and Querrey ongoing since I'm pretty sure that's the measuring bar unless Kyrgios goes into points overdrive down under.

 

[Meles]

About points:

As I've discussed with you, in general you look at points, subtract 50, double, add back to 50 but a little more. Meaning that if you see 51% of points figure on 52% of games, but a bit more.

This is not predictable over very short periods, and the closer we get to 50%, the more unpredictable it becomes.

But if you are looking for future stars, best look to ATGs - before they were ATGs. The problem is that the data early in careers, in the past, was so unreliable, and it MAY be equally unreliable now.

Example:

Points for Fed, all surfaces, 2000. 50.4, according to TA. My data, from the ATP, says 50.40. In other words, a match.

Federer finally broke into the top 50 in March of that year.

He did not break into the top 20 until a year later. But he did not break into the top 10 until May of 2002.

His points for 2002: 52.65

So for any of the younger players you are tracking, look for a jump in points, which will push a jump in games, which will signal a jump in winning events.

Don't bother hyping anyone until those points clearly go up.

Yes. Its good to see your formula again. Generally really good players seem to have one big boost year to year once in their career. Thiem might be going in for 2nds this year based on the early going in 2018. Early data is always a problem and you have to look at earlier events.

I prefer to look at surfaces, but that could be refined for some players. A player like Shapovalov probably should have their clay numbers ignored completely, while Thiem and Zverev definitely need seperate numbers. Possibly grass and hard could be combined, but I prefer to ignore grass entirely. Hard courts is the best. I've not done it yet, but I believe Ultimate Tennis has a way to break out some of the hard courts away from others (indoor, etc.) In any event I never look at overall stats across all surfaces. This just is not good for predicting results and breakthroughs on surfaces.

I'll hype who I like thank you. The problem with your conservatism is the ship has already sailed for these younger players by the time you have enough data. I use my eyes with the data and its served me well. Examples:
1. Thiem's initial game in 2017 looked good and then he delivered solid stats on clay from the get go so his success was no surprise (and I called for his rise to the top of the game in 2016 (points) by RG, but was after RG.)
2. Zedbot was just a huge success and he has delivered until late

I've not crunched numbers on Sock, but very impressed with his end to 2017. Goffin was not a great surprise and I noted before clay season that his serving on hard courts was up nicely in 2017. Was pretty crazy about Tsonga, Kyrgios, and Dimitrov from early hard courts in 2017 and look where they are now.

I was more ambivalent towards Shapovalov (justly so), but feel his long term prospects are fantastic given the high level of his serve points won for his age (better than Big 4) and despite an early loss in 2018 I like how his game looked and the serve was nicely improved. Kyrgios I've heard from @BeatlesFan had a good off-season, but his future is clouded by a knee issue plus Kyrgios being Kyrgios when not feeling his best. His serving was so good against Dimitrov yesterday and that is a huge sign for him as at all of his big tournament wins he's been unconscious on serve. If his knee recovers he could easily win Auz. If healthy and dedicated he could take Wimby and US Open as well with such a serve. I'm ambivalent because of his history of injuries. For players like Shapovalov, Tsitsipas, and De Minaur we just don't have much of a baseline (months instead of several years worth of data) so it takes a lot of guess work.

So I have not stats to say Rublev, Thiem, Kokkinakis, and Tsitsipas are off with a bang in 2018, but I am hyping for now. Why?
1. Thiem had a mental issue of sorts holding him back for part of late 2017 and he'll get over it with new coach plus much better serving and returning in early 2018. Why wait for stats given his track record and age?
2. Rublev already had my eye big time because of unprecedented stats improvement on hard and clay over the last three seasons. And now his movement looks insanely improved in early 2018. Its not hard to predict all his numbers will go up significantly this year.
3. Tsitispas is 100% eyeball test and I do trust my eye
4. Kokk is eyeball and a general feeling that despite the time off (nearly 2 years of sporadic play), he's been able to increase his physical capabilities perhaps even more so than his peers. He was 80 when he left the game two years ago and he's at least top 50 caliber right now and could easily be top 30 by end of the year (higher if he's as good a match close as he appears to be.)

Why wait until the year is done and they say they're ones to watch when we've missed a year of watching? The Meles Hype Machine rolls on.

 

[Thundergod]

After seeing PCB make top 10, I'm not surprised at the thought of anyone making the top 10. However, I would take a recovering Djokovic or Stan over Rublev on clay. Yea, clay is not so great for older players, but weren't 3/4 SFist last year over 30? One of them barely has a hip lol.

 

[Meles]

After seeing PCB make top 10, I'm not surprised at the thought of anyone making the top 10. However, I would take a recovering Djokovic or Stan over Rublev on clay. Yea, clay is not so great for older players, but weren't 3/4 SFist last year over 30? One of them barely has a hip lol.

A lot of that was a weak top half at RG, but we are talking ranking points. Nole and Stan are defending points from last year through RG; that is why they aren't in contention for top ten by the end of RG. Your PCB comparison is apt because if the Big 5 were playing and in the top 10 right now, it would be a lot harder for Rublev to make this run. We're basically talking about Rublev beating Jack Sock by 800 points through RG. The list in the OP has everything dropped off. I believe Rublev will make up the difference sometime during the clay season. Angrey needs a lot of work on serve, but his massively improved footwork is going to make his ground game a real asset on clay. Don't think the serve will kill him on clay. Angrey will be seeded for Auz Open so he's probably getting direct entry to anything he wants the rest of this period.

 

[BorgCash]

I mean he depends of his temper so much

 

[zagor]

What do you people see in Rublev? I mean, he's still young and rising up in the rankings reasonably fast but so far the only impressive thing about him for me is his FH. Everything else is just meh.

 

[TheGhostOfAgassi]

Yes. Its good to see your formula again. Generally really good players seem to have one big boost year to year once in their career. Thiem might be going in for 2nds this year based on the early going in 2018. Early data is always a problem and you have to look at earlier events.

I prefer to look at surfaces, but that could be refined for some players. A player like Shapovalov probably should have their clay numbers ignored completely, while Thiem and Zverev definitely need seperate numbers. Possibly grass and hard could be combined, but I prefer to ignore grass entirely. Hard courts is the best. I've not done it yet, but I believe Ultimate Tennis has a way to break out some of the hard courts away from others (indoor, etc.) In any event I never look at overall stats across all surfaces. This just is not good for predicting results and breakthroughs on surfaces.

I'll hype who I like thank you. The problem with your conservatism is the ship has already sailed for these younger players by the time you have enough data. I use my eyes with the data and its served me well. Examples:
1. Thiem's initial game in 2017 looked good and then he delivered solid stats on clay from the get go so his success was no surprise (and I called for his rise to the top of the game in 2016 (points) by RG, but was after RG.)
2. Zedbot was just a huge success and he has delivered until late

I've not crunched numbers on Sock, but very impressed with his end to 2017. Goffin was not a great surprise and I noted before clay season that his serving on hard courts was up nicely in 2017. Was pretty crazy about Tsonga, Kyrgios, and Dimitrov from early hard courts in 2017 and look where they are now.

I was more ambivalent towards Shapovalov (justly so), but feel his long term prospects are fantastic given the high level of his serve points won for his age (better than Big 4) and despite an early loss in 2018 I like how his game looked and the serve was nicely improved. Kyrgios I've heard from @BeatlesFan had a good off-season, but his future is clouded by a knee issue plus Kyrgios being Kyrgios when not feeling his best. His serving was so good against Dimitrov yesterday and that is a huge sign for him as at all of his big tournament wins he's been unconscious on serve. If his knee recovers he could easily win Auz. If healthy and dedicated he could take Wimby and US Open as well with such a serve. I'm ambivalent because of his history of injuries. For players like Shapovalov, Tsitsipas, and De Minaur we just don't have much of a baseline (months instead of several years worth of data) so it takes a lot of guess work.

So I have not stats to say Rublev, Thiem, Kokkinakis, and Tsitsipas are off with a bang in 2018, but I am hyping for now. Why?
1. Thiem had a mental issue of sorts holding him back for part of late 2017 and he'll get over it with new coach plus much better serving and returning in early 2018. Why wait for stats given his track record and age?
2. Rublev already had my eye big time because of unprecedented stats improvement on hard and clay over the last three seasons. And now his movement looks insanely improved in early 2018. Its not hard to predict all his numbers will go up significantly this year.
3. Tsitispas is 100% eyeball test and I do trust my eye
4. Kokk is eyeball and a general feeling that despite the time off (nearly 2 years of sporadic play), he's been able to increase his physical capabilities perhaps even more so than his peers. He was 80 when he left the game two years ago and he's at least top 50 caliber right now and could easily be top 30 by end of the year (higher if he's as good a match close as he appears to be.)

Why wait until the year is done and they say they're ones to watch when we've missed a year of watching? The Meles Hype Machine rolls on.

So who are we hyping this year apart from Rublev?

 

[Meles]

What do you people see in Rublev? I mean, he's still young and rising up in the rankings reasonably fast but so far the only impressive thing about him for me is his FH. Everything else is just meh.

Was rather amazed that Doha commies preferred the backhand to the forehand. Beat the WTF finalists soundly at the US Open. Footwork looked slow, but return numbers on a big rise over last few years. Coming from off-season footwork now looks electric. Add that to tourney win on clay at Umag and the OP sees a surge up the rankings given the lowered threshold atm for top ten. Angrey is winning with a bad serve which with time and maturity should get much better.

 

[Meles]

So who are we hyping this year apart from Rublev?

That’s pretty much the list except for Monfils and Ruud of course who just qualified for Auckland. Gael has a new serve stance and looks back in 2016 form.

 

[Charleneriva]

Rublev has all the tools to have a great clay season and squeak into the top 10 by the conclusion of Roland Garros.

That's pretty bold and I hope you're right. I'm definitely eager to see him doing well this clay season. But I still have doubt about his fitness and nerves. Game wise, he can only improve from now on and he has heart and will to do it imo.

Was rather amazed that Doha commies preferred the backhand to the forehand.

I like his BH as well, especially his aggressive return approach, and think it has potentials.

 

[Meles]

That's pretty bold and I hope you're right. I'm definitely eager to see him doing well this clay season. But I still have doubt about his fitness and nerves. Game wise, he can only improve from now on and he has heart and will to do it imo.



I like his BH as well, especially his aggressive return approach, and think it has potentials.

He never gives ground with BH which got him high marks.

 

[Deleted member 307496]

https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...a-huge-threat-at-wimbledon-and-beyond.593726/

Meles, your predictions have fallen flat so far every single time. These guys won't make the top 8 by then.

Some of the guys you mention as the stars of tomorrow will likely end up as career journeymen.

 

[tennisaddict]

https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...a-huge-threat-at-wimbledon-and-beyond.593726/

Meles, your predictions have fallen flat so far every single time. These guys won't make the top 8 by then.

Some of the guys you mention as the stars of tomorrow will likely end up as career journeymen.

You can look at Meles predictions and then you know what not to bet on

 

[TheGhostOfAgassi]

You can look at Meles predictions and then you know what not to bet on

He won the leagues last year, pretty much based on predictions

 

[abmk]

Delpo will be.
Rublev ? Umm, no.

 

[tennisaddict]

He won the leagues last year, pretty much based on predictions

The clock is also right twice a day.

He is big on whoever won a title or made a F the previous week.

 

[YellowFedBetter]

He won the leagues last year, pretty much based on predictions

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