Should Federer skip Miami?

[mike danny]

I know it is too early to talk because IW has just begun. But IMO at this stage of his career he has to pick his battles. Miami has rarely been kind to him and he struggles at this event big time.

He has 2 titles there, which is more than enough, considering how tough it is for him to win there. He barely beat Nadal who was 18 in 2005 and he had to win 3 tough tiebreaks to beat Ljubicic in 2006. He also has a losing H2H at Miami to Roddick of all people. I think the only losing H2H he has against the american in any category. So obviously it is a tough event if he even struggled to beat Roddick. The only match he won vs him, he barely won it.

Grinding against the likes of Nadal, Djokovic and Murray on these courts will do him no good at all. I think he should skip it entirely. It is too slow for him. Even slower than the AO. W, USO, Toronto, Cincy, these are faster courts and Edberg's approach will work far better on them. Federer will struggle to make the same approach of ending points at the net at Miami, It will be difficult to apply the Edberg approach.

So should he skip it and preserve himself for what's about to come?

 

[urundai]

I know it is too early to talk because IW has just begun. But IMO at this stage of his career he has to pick his battles. Miami has rarely been kind to him and he struggles at this event big time.

He has 2 titles there, which is more than enough, considering how tough it is for him to win there. He barely beat Nadal who was 18 in 2005 and he had to win 3 tough tiebreaks to beat Ljubicic in 2006. He also has a losing H2H at Miami to Roddick of all people. I think the only losing H2H he has against the american in any category. So obviously it is a tough event if he even struggled to beat Roddick. The only match he won vs him, he barely won it.

Grinding against the likes of Nadal, Djokovic and Murray on these courts will do him no good at all. I think he should skip it entirely. It is too slow for him. Even slower than the AO. W, USO, Toronto, Cincy, these are faster courts and Edberg's approach will work far better on them. Federer will struggle to make the same approach of ending points at the net at Miami, It will be difficult to apply the Edberg approach.

So should he skip it and preserve himself for what's about to come?

If he goes deep in IW, especially if he wins it, I expect him to skip Miami.

 

[LazyNinja19]

I think he'll play Miami, because there are a lot of points to be gained there since he didn't play last year.
Even if he doesn't win there, gaining points will help him improve ranking, and get better draws for later tournies.

Depends a lot on the IW performance actually.

 

[NEW_BORN]

Even though his record at Miami in recent years has not been great, i would hate for him to miss it.

In my book, Miami and Rome are the 2 most prestigious masters out there and i would love for him to win it 1 more time before he retires.

 

[chjtennis]

Federer can play in Miami and he will be fine. If he feels tired, though, I'm sure he'll just pull out.

 

[cluckcluck]

Even though his record at Miami in recent years has not been great, i would hate for him to miss it.

In my book, Miami and Rome are the 2 most prestigious masters out there and i would love for him to win it 1 more time before he retires.

You must be an Italian living in Florida. :razz:

 

[TheMusicLover]

It will all depend on whether he feels well or not.
As he's got a bucket of points to pick up in Miami, I only expect him to skip it in case he 1) wins IW, and 2) feels the need for rest thereafter.

As I don't expect him to win IW, I'd say 95% chances he'll be there in Miami this year.

 

[NatF]

He's got a better chance of getting back that important top 4 ranking if he plays Miami.

 

[NEW_BORN]

You must be an Italian living in Florida. :razz:

Not quite

And i'm not a Floridian living in Rome either...in case you're wondering.

 

[mike danny]

I have a feeling both Nadal and Federer will skip Miami this year. Just like last year

 

[Backspin1183]

Even though his record at Miami in recent years has not been great, i would hate for him to miss it.

In my book, Miami and Rome are the 2 most prestigious masters out there and i would love for him to win it 1 more time before he retires.

Italian Open is probably the most prestigious Master 1000 but Miami???

 

[WhiskeyEE]

He needs ranking points to get back into the top 4.

 

[timnz]

Miami

Italian Open is probably the most prestigious Master 1000 but Miami???

Miami was the most important event outside the slams and the WTF in the late 80's (it was termed the '5th Slam' in those days)....but I think of recent years, Indian Wells has gone past it, with Larry Ellison's input.

Agree with the sentiment that the Italian Open is the most pretigious. I base this on the fact that it has (along with Monte Carlo, which isn't compulsory anymore) been the only one that has stayed as a Top 9 Tournament all the way through:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis_Masters_Series_records_and_statistics

 

[Chanwan]

It will all depend on whether he feels well or not.
As he's got a bucket of points to pick up in Miami, I only expect him to skip it in case he 1) wins IW, or reaches the final)and 2) feels the need for rest thereafter.

As I don't expect him to win IW, I'd say 95% chances he'll be there in Miami this year.

Pretty much this. He's got DC right after Miami, but apart from that, he's got all of April off. And he needs the ranking points as being in the top-4 would be of great value come RG and especially Wimbledon

 

[Vensai]

I think he should.

 

[TheMusicLover]

Pretty much this. He's got DC right after Miami, but apart from that, he's got all of April off. And he needs the ranking points as being in the top-4 would be of great value come RG and especially Wimbledon

Good correction/addition to my post!

Yep, I think it's all about the ranking points for Fed right now - and seeing as how close all of the #8 to #4, or even #3, of the ATP ranking are at the moment, it seems a too good chance to let go for him.

 

[Chanwan]

Good correction/addition to my post!

Yep, I think it's all about the ranking points for Fed right now - and seeing as how close all of the #8 to #4, or even #3, of the ATP ranking are at the moment, it seems a too good chance to let go for him.

Yeah - and with Ferrer and Delpo struggling, it's between Fed, Wawrinka, Murray and Berdych. I think Fed would think he has at least a 50-50 of getting back to 4th or better soonish.

 

[TheMusicLover]

Yeah - and with Ferrer and Delpo struggling, it's between Fed, Wawrinka, Murray and Berdych. I think Fed would think he has at least a 50-50 of getting back to 4th or better soonish.

Indeed. Well of course Berdych is in good form, we'll have to see how Wawrinka returns from his grandiose AO, but Murray's form is - I think - questionable. So, too good a chance to let this pass for Fed.

 

[Talker]

He should play.

A heavy schedule would do him good and get his game tuned up.

 

[Chanwan]

Indeed. Well of course Berdych is in good form, we'll have to see how Wawrinka returns from his grandiose AO, but Murray's form is - I think - questionable. So, too good a chance to let this pass for Fed.

Yeah, just did a quick calculation. Here are their points between now and Wimbledon.

Wawrinka, Stanislas (SUI)
5,650 - 1720 to defend

Ferrer, David (ESP)
5,160 - 2120 to defend

Berdych, Tomas (CZE)
4,890 - 1270 to defend

Murray, Andy (GBR)
4,885 - 1710 to defend

Del Potro, Juan Martin
4,870 - 790 to defend

Federer, Roger (SUI)
4,625 - 1480 to defend

Too good a chance to miss. I hope Murray gathers pace soon (the game needs him at his best), but I'm not so sure it will happen this month already.

 

[chjtennis]

I think Federer still is missing something with his game and needs more time on court to get it back. Probably Federer himself feels that way, and it looks like he wants to play more to find his 'feel' back as soon as possible. Playing 3 tournaments in 1 month with so much travelling + Davis Cup may be too much for him now, but I guess he will skip Monte Carlo anyway and will enjoy good rest in April, so that's doable. If he feels it's an overwhelming schedule, he will pull out.

 

[Bobby Jr]

I think he'll play Miami, because there are a lot of points to be gained there since he didn't play last year.
Even if he doesn't win there, gaining points will help him improve ranking, and get better draws for later tournies.

I agree with this.

Not winning a tournament isn't a blight for Federer's resume. As long as he plays well and has a good showing they're necessary for rankings which, in theory, help him in the tournaments that matter - the majors.

It wouldn't matter if Federer played another 5 years on tour without winning a single title if it culminated in him winning one more major. Having his eye the prizes that matter is what is important imo.

 

[NEW_BORN]

It wouldn't matter if Federer played another 5 years on tour without winning a single title if it culminated in him winning one more major. Having his eye the prizes that matter is what is important imo.

I disagree with this mentality.

Winning titles large or small is a huge confidence booster. If given the choice of Fed winning 1 more slam or have him win 10-12 more titles of my choice, i would pick the latter in a heartbeat.

Imagine him winning 1)Olympic Singles Gold, 2)Rome, 3)Monte Carlo, 4)Miami, 5)Montreal, 6)Shanghai, 7)Paris Indoor, 8 )Indian Wells, 9)Cincinnati, 10)Madrid, 11)Year End Championship, 12)Davis Cup, over the next few years
OR
Only winning 1 of the 4 majors
It's a no-brainer imo.

 

[Bobby Jr]

Imagine him winning 1)Olympic Singles Gold, 2)Rome, 3)Monte Carlo, 4)Miami, 5)Montreal, 6)Shanghai, 7)Paris Indoor, 8 )Indian Wells, 9)Cincinnati, 10)Madrid, 11)Year End Championship, 12)Davis Cup, over the next few years
OR
Only winning 1 of the 4 majors
It's a no-brainer imo.

None of those titles would improve his legacy in the eyes of the vast, vast majority of tennis followers, nor the media, other than an Olympic title. I agree with you on that one but all the others combined would be barely a blip on the radar compared to winning another Wimbledon or French Open in particular.

People get remembered mostly for the big things they achieve in tennis, not the masses of little things. They only matter to statisticians and very dedicated followers.

 

[Federer20042006]

Miami was the most important event outside the slams and the WTF in the late 80's (it was termed the '5th Slam' in those days)....but I think of recent years, Indian Wells has gone past it, with Larry Ellison's input.

Agree with the sentiment that the Italian Open is the most pretigious. I base this on the fact that it has (along with Monte Carlo, which isn't compulsory anymore) been the only one that has stayed as a Top 9 Tournament all the way through:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis_Masters_Series_records_and_statistics

Indian Wells and Miami (formerly Key Biscayne) have always been ahead of the others, thanks to the larger draw.

You can basically luck your way into any of the other 7.

 

[NEW_BORN]

None of those titles would improve his legacy in the eyes of the vast, vast majority of tennis followers, nor the media, other than an Olympic title. I agree with you on that one but all the others combined would be barely a blip on the radar compared to winning another Wimbledon or French Open in particular.

People get remembered mostly for the big things they achieve in tennis, not the masses of little things. They only matter to statisticians and very dedicated followers.

Which is why they matter a hell of a lot to me

But anyway, i still would prefer to see him win titles here and there, regardless of prestige, rather than consistently making qfs and sfs of majors and not get through that final hurdle of winning the title.

 

[Russeljones]

I know it is too early to talk because IW has just begun. But IMO at this stage of his career he has to pick his battles. Miami has rarely been kind to him and he struggles at this event big time.

He has 2 titles there, which is more than enough, considering how tough it is for him to win there. He barely beat Nadal who was 18 in 2005 and he had to win 3 tough tiebreaks to beat Ljubicic in 2006. He also has a losing H2H at Miami to Roddick of all people. I think the only losing H2H he has against the american in any category. So obviously it is a tough event if he even struggled to beat Roddick. The only match he won vs him, he barely won it.

Grinding against the likes of Nadal, Djokovic and Murray on these courts will do him no good at all. I think he should skip it entirely. It is too slow for him. Even slower than the AO. W, USO, Toronto, Cincy, these are faster courts and Edberg's approach will work far better on them. Federer will struggle to make the same approach of ending points at the net at Miami, It will be difficult to apply the Edberg approach.

So should he skip it and preserve himself for what's about to come?

You make it sound like Ljubicic was some mediocre player in 2006.