So......how does Federer beat Djokovic?

[pmh1983]

Federer has now won 6 out of the last 7 against Nadal and has turned a poor H2H record into a fairly respectable one.

His H2H against Djokovic is a lot closer at 25-22 (to Novak), however Djokovic has won the last 4 matches, 8 out of the last 10 total, 3 recent GS finals in a row and their last 4 GS matches.

If Federer can win I think it could serve as a platform against Djokovic much like beating Rafa in the Australian Open 2017 final did for future meetings, but my question is just how can Federer defeat Djokovic? Novak seems like he will have more in the tank than Rafa, and for that reason the first set is vital, much like yesterday.

My worry is he has peaked in the SF against Rafa, I hope I am wrong but that is my fear.

**Will also state that even though I want Federer to win, I hope the crowd gives Novak the respect he deserves; the guy is a legend and will at worst be one of the best ever**

 

[Feather]

By winning the last point.. isn't it obvious?

 

[Rago]

Don't give Novak any rhythm.

Serve well obviously.

 

[tennisaddict]

Another day with 75% first serve and aggressive play.

 

[Enga]

I think he can hold serves, get mini breaks here and there. I suspect he will go for the net more often than he did against Nadal. Rushing Djokovic is one of the best tactics available to his opponents, because Djokovic always plays best with a steady rhythm.

 

[aman92]

He can't

 

[Raining hopes]

I got it right with the SF. About baseline focus.



Here Fed should still be focused on baseline, but there should be a lot of variety thrown in. BH Slices that prolong rallies but also ask tough questions. The courts are low bouncing. Switch to BH topspin from slices within the rallies to get an advantage and set up the FH.

And most importantly HIT. THE. DAMN .FOREHAND. Go for shorter angles. But be absolutely ready to hit 3-4 more shots than required.


Serve from a tree for at least two sets. Find some solution for those returns dropping at his feet.

Attack net efficiently not constantly.

Again be ready to be passed , blown off of BH side, made to look like a fool. But next point go back to square one. Do the same thing next point even if it means the same results.



In the end SIMPLY BEL21VE

 

[raph6]

For Federer, the key will be to put pressure on Novak. To do this, he will need a high percentage (more than 70%) of 1st serve. He will also need to be aggressive on the return, especially on the second serve return to put a high pressure on Novak.

He will also need to take the net a lot, like he did in Shanghai 2014. If the points lasts too much (more than 8 shots), Novak will be like a fish in the sea.

 

[JackGates]

It's really impossible to predict this one. We have no clue how their games and mentality matchup up against each other, since both are so different than in 2015. Four years is huge gap in tennis.

 

[Badabing888]

Novak will most likely hurt Roger on Roger’s second serve more than Roger hurting Novak on his because of Novak’s superior return of serve. That was the key to both previous finals and why Novak got the upper hand as it allowed him to get superiority in the baseline rallies. It’s hard to see Roger really doing anything more unless Novak is below par on Sunday.

Hard to see Roger serving at 70% consistently over 5 sets v Novak. At best I would think low to mid 60s. Novak’s return of serve is just too good.

 

[tennisaddict]

Novak will most likely hurt Roger on Roger’s second serve more than Roger hurting Novak on his because of Novak’s superior return of serve. That was the key to both previous finals and why Novak got the upper hand as it allowed him to get superiority in the baseline rallies. It’s hard to see Roger really doing anything more unless Novak is below par on Sunday.

Novak has been below par against several players in finals this decade, except for Fed.

This is Novak's chance to make that even

 

[JackGates]

Novak will most likely hurt Roger on Roger’s second serve more than Roger hurting Novak on his because of Novak’s superior return of serve. That was the key to both previous finals and why Novak got the upper hand as it allowed him to get superiority in the baseline rallies. It’s hard to see Roger really doing anything more unless Novak is below par on Sunday.

I see your point here. But their styles and mindset changed so much in the last four years, that it's impossible to predict really. They are both very different players, so who knows how they match up now. Nothing would surprise me, really. Could be that this new Fed is matching up even worse against Nole, since he has less variety. Or this new mentally more solid from the baseline Fed can finally turn the tides. That's why this match is so great. On top of that Nole isn't at his absolute peak best yet.

 

[Badabing888]

Would love Roger to turn it around on Sunday and somehow defy expectations and win but i am setting them low. None of this believe nonsense. He either wins the big battles of the game ie second serve and baseline exchanges or he will not win on Sunday.

 

[albertobra]

LOL Roger's going to beat down Novak in this Wimbledon final. 3 sets to love.
Formidable BH. Always taking ball early, Novak will feel dizzy, and will not be able to angle shot as he usually do.
You guys will see what it means to play on grass vs this version of Roger Federer.

 

[Krish0608]

Federer has more than a decent shot. He just NEEDS a good serving day. His ground game and net game are locked in. Clutcherer needs to make an appearance. Heck, I'll call it. Fed in 4, for one of the most impressive grand slam victories of his career.

 

[vex]

He probably doesn’t. On serve I think he needs to win with aces and first strike winners. Every service point that goes past 5 shots favors Djokovic dramatically. Same deal on return, he needs to be very aggressive.

This is assuming Djoker has his A game. Djoker could always lay an egg.

 

[DjokoLand]

Well it goes without saying that Djokovic takes Feds 2nd serve to the cleaners so needs at least 70-75% FS in. He needs to be ultra aggressive it most likely will cause loads of UE but he can’t just rally with Djokovic.
Djokovic having a off day will help, don’t think that will happen so he has to paint lines and hope for the best

 

[SeeItHitIt]

Another day with 75% first serve and aggressive play.

This is the formula. Speed the court up, first serves in do that. Djoker is a ++ plodder, meaning he’s going to get back a huge % of what he can reach. Take his time away, crash the net. I suppose easier said than done at 37-8, but Djoker’s flat-ish groundies would seem to center themselves in the RF97 better than the junk Rafa puts at you.

 

[Spencer Gore]

He can hope Djokovic has one of his off days.

 

[Thetouch]

There is no magic trick, every tennis match basically follows the same rules. You win with high percentage 1st and 2nd serves, by being aggressive and pressuring your opponent, hitting winners, forcing your opponent to make errors and in Roger's case attacking the net more often as well. When two players at the level of Djokovic and Federer meet in WB and both are at their best physically and mentally then usually the player wins who makes less mistakes and this can be a difference of only a few points in total. If you beat your opponent 7:6 7:6 7:6, then chances are you only won because of 3 more winners and 3 unforced errors of your opponent.

 

[Krish0608]

Djokovic will definitely up the ante tomorrow. He'll not push. He's gonna be ultra aggressive with his groundies. Fed will need to recover and be ready. I think he can do it this time. Fingers crossed.

 

[Towser83]

With Nadal he had a mental issue and a backhand issue that he solved. With Djokovic I think it's just that Novak gets so many balls back but again Fed has folded mentally vs him. I'm not sure what he does to get around Novak getting so many balls back, I think he has to be so good on the offense that it puts Djokovic off, he will need to serve amazing as well.

It's weird because vs Nadal he had an actual matchup issue because of the backhand but he solved that. With Djokovic he was always very well matched with and had the edge but now its Djokovic that has the edge and he's just a bit better overall now

 

[tennisaddict]

Djokovic has not been tested.

Fed has been tested properly... Pouille, Nishikori and Nadal.

We will see what each brings to the table tomorrow.

 

[Towny]

Serve well, obviously. He'll also need to return deep, like yesterday, to deprive Djokovic of free points. Slice works much better against Novak than Rafa so he needs to implement that, although with a good proportion of top spin backhand too. Maybe come to the net a bit more than yesterday, although not in kamikaze style.

Most importantly, he needs to stay mentally strong. One of the most impressive things about yesterday is how he came back from a mini-break down twice in the tiebreak and how quickly he recovered from losing the second set 6-1. If he can stay mentally strong, he has a chance. If not, we'll be seeing a repeat of 2015

 

[Brett UK]

Federer has now won 6 out of the last 7 against Nadal and has turned a poor H2H record into a fairly respectable one.

His H2H against Djokovic is a lot closer at 25-22 (to Novak), however Djokovic has won the last 4 matches, 8 out of the last 10 total, 3 recent GS finals in a row and their last 4 GS matches.

If Federer can win I think it could serve as a platform against Djokovic much like beating Rafa in the Australian Open 2017 final did for future meetings, but my question is just how can Federer defeat Djokovic? Novak seems like he will have more in the tank than Rafa, and for that reason the first set is vital, much like yesterday.

My worry is he has peaked in the SF against Rafa, I hope I am wrong but that is my fear.

**Will also state that even though I want Federer to win, I hope the crowd gives Novak the respect he deserves; the guy is a legend and will at worst be one of the best ever**

Balls are bouncing low so the slice backhand could be good

 

[Badabing888]

Borg won 4 Wimbledons in the 70s.
McEnroe/Becker 3 each in the 80s
Sampras - 6 in the 90s
Federer - 6 in the 00s
Djokovic on his way to 5 in the 10s.

 

[Feather]

With Nadal he had a mental issue and a backhand issue that he solved. With Djokovic I think it's just that Novak gets so many balls back but again Fed has folded mentally vs him. I'm not sure what he does to get around Novak getting so many balls back, I think he has to be so good on the offense that it puts Djokovic off, he will need to serve amazing as well.

It's weird because vs Nadal he had an actual matchup issue because of the backhand but he solved that. With Djokovic he was always very well matched with and had the edge but now its Djokovic that has the edge and he's just a bit better overall now

Novak Djokovic neutralizes current Roger Federer's greatest weapon: the serve!

On top of that the depth of Novak's shots plus his insane ability to change direction of the balls make Roger do a lot of running.

Roger should slice a lot, junkball a lot, serve well, be offensive, don't get into protracted rallies as it gives Novak a rhythm and then approach the net a lot.

Basically play a lot of low percentage game

 

[Towser83]

Novak Djokovic neutralizes current Roger Federer's greatest weapon: the serve!

On top of that the depth of Novak's shots plus his insane ability to change direction of the balls make Roger do a lot of running.

Roger should slice a lot, junkball a lot, serve well, be offensive, don't get into protracted rallies as it gives Novak a rhythm and then approach the net a lot.

Basically play a lot of low percentage game

Yeah I agree. The question is why did their matchup change? Novak has always had a great return. Is it that Fed's ability to rally has got worse or his serve is not as reliable or is Djokovic just better at returning now?

I feel it's just the relentless pressure from him and Fed is not quite as consistent in all aspects of his game. Eventually his serve falters and he makes too many errors in rallies. In his prime he was able to be a bit more consistent and apply more pressure

 

[RF#21]

Opposite to how he beat Nadal, at least on the backhand side. Gotta serve and hit the forehand well, that’s a given.

On the backhand he’s gotta hit way more short, knifing slices cross court to Nole’s backhand as opposed to driving everything like he did vs Rafa.

Make Nole constantly have to hit up on that wing and hope for some errors. Still would say Nole takes it in 4, but that semi was enough of victory for me to be content!

 

[SpinToWin]

Serve well, take the ball early to take time away, attack the net occasionally, change the pace if it ends up being effective on the day. We all know the drill by now, and the two players in question especially so. There's no real secrets here, whoever performs better on the day will take it.

 

[Luka888]

Mix it up. Serve very well. When I say well it will have to be out of this world. MIX IT UP is the keyword.

 

[RF6777]

Play like 2015..& don't lose momentum...
In 2015...He broke djoker in the first set...Then got broken....Then had 2 set points...Then lost the set....

 

[Old Gregg]

Djok is going to be ill tomorrow and Fed will play a sublime match.

 

[albertobra]

Balls are bouncing low so the slice backhand could be good

And also 1HBH is betterer than 2HBH on low bouncing balls, not only for slice, also for flat and top spin shots.

 

[chjtennis]

Federer beats Djokovic when he plays aggressively. He needs to serve above 60% for 1st serve and win 75% of them. Has to win close to 60% of 2nd serves as well. Serve is key and if he doesn't serve well, he will not win. Also, He has to attack without hesitation. Recently, he tends to waiting for his opponents to make mistakes too much. He should go for winners whenever he can. Watch all Federer's win v Djokovic, you'll see the beast Federer with animal instinct to attack. He has to find good rhythm early, needs to be sharp from the start, and take the match to Djokovic. He just cannot beat Djokovic defensively. So, the question should be is Federer still able to play attacking tennis at nearly 38. We'll see tomorrow.

 

[maupp]

He doesn't

 

[TearTheRoofOff]

I got it right with the SF. About baseline focus.



Here Fed should still be focused on baseline, but there should be a lot of variety thrown in. BH Slices that prolong rallies but also ask tough questions. The courts are low bouncing. Switch to BH topspin from slices within the rallies to get an advantage and set up the FH.

And most importantly HIT. THE. DAMN .FOREHAND. Go for shorter angles. But be absolutely ready to hit 3-4 more shots than required.


Serve from a tree for at least two sets. Find some solution for those returns dropping at his feet.

Attack net efficiently not constantly.

Again be ready to be passed , blown off of BH side, made to look like a fool. But next point go back to square one. Do the same thing next point even if it means the same results.



In the end SIMPLY BEL21VE

Man, this 'BEL21VE' stuff really doesn't makes visual sense. It made some sense when it was a teen number.

 

[AceSalvo]

Fed didn't use the slice ROS against Nadal. I think we will see a lot of that against Djoko.

 

[HowsItGoin]

Borg won 4 Wimbledons in the 70s.
McEnroe/Becker 3 each in the 80s
Sampras - 6 in the 90s
Federer - 6 in the 00s
Djokovic on his way to 5 in the 10s.

Fed on his way to most (including joint most) titles in 2 different decades

 

[MasturB]

Fed needs to slice and slice.

I think s&v'ing a lot gassed him in 2014 and 2015. He doesnt need to play extended rallies with Novak but he's gonna have to play more riskier constructed points. I would suggest drop shot Novak a lot. Novak can slide on all surfaces but sliding on grass is still more difficult because of the full sprint leading into the slide and the recovery after are more difficult than hard and clay. Get into Novak's head with drop shots and winning all those putaway volleys after the droppers.

 

[JackGates]

Fed didn't use the slice ROS against Nadal. I think we will see a lot of that against Djoko.

I love this. Rafa is lefty, so Fed's top slice goes right into his top spin forehand, and it negates the slice. But I love that Fed did use it from time to time as a surprise to keep Rafa honest and it worked.

 

[Pheasant]

Fed needs to serve like a boss and win the tiebreakers. In addition, he will need to get his 2017 backhand back.

I think that Fed will win if he can get that 2017 new-backhand clicking again. Granted, it’s been 2 years. But one can hope.

 

[Deleted member 762343]

By feeding him some gluten filled Barilla pasta before the match.

 

[icedevil0289]

Pray for a subpar Novak ala Wimbledon 2013 and also have a serving clinic

 

[icedevil0289]

Play like 2015..& don't lose momentum...
In 2015...He broke djoker in the first set...Then got broken....Then had 2 set points...Then lost the set....

Wait he had 2 sp in the first set? Damn all I I remember was that epic tb

 

[RF6777]

Yes...At 6-5....He was 40-15 on djoker's serve

 

[MasturB]

I love this. Rafa is lefty, so Fed's top slice goes right into his top spin forehand, and it negates the slice. But I love that Fed did use it from time to time as a surprise to keep Rafa honest and it worked.

Also, Fed's slice with the 90 had a lot more cut and bite to it on grass. His slice with the 97 is still world class but doesn't get the same action. Probably lost about 10-15% of the action he had compared to the 90 racquet.

Thus his chip returns aren't as effective as they used to be, but on the flipside it's easier for him to hit more offensive block returns hitting over the top of the ball with the 97 than 90. Definitely a lot less shanks.

 

[tennishabit]

pray..............nothing else gonna work, lolololololol man.....................

the odds says all..........1.55 vs 2.60...................

352 or 342 straight most likely. or, 3-1; 3(5)52 or 3(5)42 if praying really sincerely.................

might b wrong n don't bet ur house on it, man.........................

 

[JackGates]

Also, Fed's slice with the 90 had a lot more cut and bite to it on grass. His slice with the 97 is still world class but doesn't get the same action. Probably lost about 10-15% of the action he had compared to the 90 racquet.

Thus his chip returns aren't as effective as they used to be, but on the flipside it's easier for him to hit more offensive block returns hitting over the top of the ball with the 97 than 90. Definitely a lot less shanks.

Good point, but Djokovic and Nadal were never bothered much with his chip and slice, so that doesn't bother him that much, so the new racket is still net positive. Also, he was using slice and chip too much, it has become predictable too, now he uses it as a surprise, which is much more potent.

But yeah overall vs lower guys, probably slice hurts him more, because they have more problems with it.

 

[OTMPut]

If AO 19 Djoker shows up, Fed has no chance.
Djoker always ups his game in the finals.