The often forgotten Fedal stat

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
The reality is that after their FO 2008 fianl (and maybe even earlier), Fed has never played at his full potential against Nadal for an entire match. He was either tense when the match started or got tense on break point opportunities. Same problem for him with Djoker at the '15 Wimby and USO finals. If he is unable to calm his nerves and come out of the blocks in full flight, he's not going to win, even if he does mount a brave rally and wins a 3rd set after losing the first two or something like that. My head tells me that Fed will come out tense as he typically does against Rafa, but my heart tells me that this time will be different bc they havent played in so long, and Fed should feel he has nothing to lose given he has far exceeded expectations in this tournament already (I would have been happy with a QF showing!)
completely agree - except he's not tense indoors, but that's a different ball game.
Their hard court head to head is 7-6 in Nadal's favour too. Which isn't that big a gap.
Isn't it 8-2 to Rafa HC outdoors though?
2004 Miami, 2006 Dubai, 3 times AO, Cinci 2013, Miami 2011, IW 2013
Fed's only won Miami 2005 and IW 2012
Most of those Federer HC wins are from indoor HC WTF. 4 to be exact.

Outdoor HC Rafa has a 7-2 record against him. And one of the 2 losses was Miami05 where he was up 2 sets and a break. Really the only bad match Rafa has played against him was IW12.
8-2 in fact. Iirc correctly, what happened in that IW 2012 match was that Rafa's usual tactic, bludgeon the backhand, didn't work as Fed was having a great, great day of his backhand wing. Rafa never adjusted and Fed never broke down. But that's one match...
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
Indoor / outdoor is irrelevant. Last meeting Fed owned Rafa at Basel - a slow-medium surface plays similar to AO this year.
Plays nothing like AO and outdoor is relevant, particularly, Rafa is 3-0 v Fed at AO the most relevant of all stats. Nadal is playing a lot better than he was in 2015.
Agree with the order. There's a reason it's 5-1 indoors to Fed and 2-8 outdoors to Rafa on HC.
Part of that is that indoors, generally, plays faster and that they've often met on slow HC outdoor or, say, in Cinci in Fed's worst year and Rafa's best ever HC form.
But an even more important part is the bounce, Rafa can't generate the same ball bounce indoors as he can outdoors and thus he can't hurt Fed as much. Also, there's no wind, which allows Fed to take the ball earlier and time his shots better (Rafa, taking the ball later than Fed, ain't affected by a bad bounce and some wind to the same degree).
 

KINGROGER

G.O.A.T.
Agree with the order. There's a reason it's 5-1 indoors to Fed and 2-8 outdoors to Rafa on HC.
Part of that is that indoors, generally, plays faster and that they've often met on slow HC outdoor or, say, in Cinci in Fed's worst year and Rafa's best ever HC form.
But an even more important part is the bounce, Rafa can't generate the same ball bounce indoors as he can outdoors and thus he can't hurt Fed as much. Also, there's no wind, which allows Fed to take the ball earlier and time his shots better (Rafa, taking the ball later than Fed, ain't affected by a bad bounce and some wind to the same degree).

So overall that doesn't strike me as too relevant just the fact that it's a faster court and most "outdoor" meetings have been on the slower courts apart from 1 at Dubai (arrogant erer took Rafa too lightly after 1 set) and Cincy (during Fed's crap year and he still played really well but was very very UL on a couple of net cords twice in one point late in the final set IIRC.

The wind + bounce thing just tells me that those conditions are "perfect" so unsurprisingly Fed wins.

It's also worth mentioning that most of these meetings came in 2010 onward when Fed was past his prime but Rafa was still in his. That's the age advantage. Then you got the 04 Miami where Federer was ill.

They never met at the USO either which would've been perfect for Fed to hit through Rafa on.
 
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The_Order

G.O.A.T.
It cuts both ways. Laver had to play 90 games at the AO to win it in '69. Shorter points, for sure, but less time between points, fewer 3 set matches, and so on. No tie breaks. So there are various factors that make it complicated.

Our view of old tennis is very skewed by mostly short videos allowing us to see too little. Most points even now are relatively short. The very long points are what we remember, and coming to the net after every serve is not less physical. It's just very different. We saw that with Mischa Zverev.

You play against Rafa with a shbh and you're taking that ball costantly at shoulder height or more. That is a very physically taxing thing to do and to send it back with bite makes it even harder. I was extremely impressed with Dimitrov's ability to take that bh utl with power constantly.
 
While many laud the 23-11 H2H in Nadal's favour and the 10-9 in non-clay matches, but very few even mention that Federer leads 5-3 on non-clay finals and winning the last one, all of those 3 Nadal wins came in the deciding set.
Here's the breakdown:
Miami 2005: Federer d Nadal 26 67(4) 76(5) 63 61
Dubai 2006: Nadal d Federer 26 64 64
Wimbledon 2006: Federer d Nadal 60 76(5) 67(2) 63
Wimbledon 2007: Federer d Nadal 76(7) 46 76(3) 26 62
Wimbledon 2008: Nadal d Federer 64 64 67(5) 67(8) 97
Aus Open 2009: Nadal d Federer 75 36 76(3) 36 62
Masters 2010: Federer d Nadal 63 36 61
Basel 2015: Federer d Nadal 63 57 63

Well done in finding a stat that favours Fed. they will exist but Nadal is 9-2 in GS and 3-0 in Australia. He has history on his side.
 
While many laud the 23-11 H2H in Nadal's favour and the 10-9 in non-clay matches, but very few even mention that Federer leads 5-3 on non-clay finals and winning the last one, all of those 3 Nadal wins came in the deciding set.
Here's the breakdown:
Miami 2005: Federer d Nadal 26 67(4) 76(5) 63 61
Dubai 2006: Nadal d Federer 26 64 64
Wimbledon 2006: Federer d Nadal 60 76(5) 67(2) 63
Wimbledon 2007: Federer d Nadal 76(7) 46 76(3) 26 62
Wimbledon 2008: Nadal d Federer 64 64 67(5) 67(8) 97
Aus Open 2009: Nadal d Federer 75 36 76(3) 36 62
Masters 2010: Federer d Nadal 63 36 61
Basel 2015: Federer d Nadal 63 57 63

Well done in finding a stat that favours Fed. they will exist but Nadal is 9-2 in GS and 3-0 in Australia. He has history on his side.
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
So overall that doesn't strike me as too relevant just the fact that it's a faster court and most "outdoor" meetings have been on the slower courts apart from 1 at Dubai (arrogant erer took Rafa too lightly after 1 set) and Cincy (during Fed's crap year and he still played really well but was very very UL on a couple of net cords twice in one point late in the final set IIRC.

The wind + bounce thing just tells me that those conditions are "perfect" so unsurprisingly Fed wins.

It's also worth mentioning that most of these meetings came in 2010 onward when Fed was past his prime but Rafa was still in his. That's the age advantage. Then you got the 04 Miami where Federer was ill.

They never met at the USO either which would've been perfect for Fed to hit through Rafa on.
I guess the big question is: How fast is this year's AO? Close to AO 2014? Or closer to say, Cincinatti? No one has called this court a 'fast court'. They've simply said it plays faster than before. How much? I'd say the former, i.e. closer to AO 2014 than Cinci -> adv. Rafa.

"The wind + bounce thing just tells me that those conditions are "perfect" so unsurprisingly Fed wins."
True, but unsurprisingly, conditions aren't perfect outdoors making Fed's attacking game plan a lot harder to execute, especially with the higher bounce.
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
I'm more concerned about NADAL reaching Graf/Serena's 22+. 18 is more or less a lock when NADAL is injury-free.

Hysterical hyperbole. Now Nadal will get to 22+ slams. The same mindless BS emanated from the Djoker fans in 2015: "30 majors will be a cake walk for Prince Nole."

You must have started watching tennis about 5 months ago to make such asinine predictions with a straight face.
 

90's Clay

Banned
While many laud the 23-11 H2H in Nadal's favour and the 10-9 in non-clay matches, but very few even mention that Federer leads 5-3 on non-clay finals and winning the last one, all of those 3 Nadal wins came in the deciding set.
Here's the breakdown:
Miami 2005: Federer d Nadal 26 67(4) 76(5) 63 61
Dubai 2006: Nadal d Federer 26 64 64
Wimbledon 2006: Federer d Nadal 60 76(5) 67(2) 63
Wimbledon 2007: Federer d Nadal 76(7) 46 76(3) 26 62
Wimbledon 2008: Nadal d Federer 64 64 67(5) 67(8) 97
Aus Open 2009: Nadal d Federer 75 36 76(3) 36 62
Masters 2010: Federer d Nadal 63 36 61
Basel 2015: Federer d Nadal 63 57 63

And Fed has only won 2 best of 5 matches at slams in the last 10-11 years. Best of 3 is meaningless since there is less on the line and anyone can win those. Totally different animal than going best of 5
 

90's Clay

Banned
While many laud the 23-11 H2H in Nadal's favour and the 10-9 in non-clay matches, but very few even mention that Federer leads 5-3 on non-clay finals and winning the last one, all of those 3 Nadal wins came in the deciding set.
Here's the breakdown:
Miami 2005: Federer d Nadal 26 67(4) 76(5) 63 61
Dubai 2006: Nadal d Federer 26 64 64
Wimbledon 2006: Federer d Nadal 60 76(5) 67(2) 63
Wimbledon 2007: Federer d Nadal 76(7) 46 76(3) 26 62
Wimbledon 2008: Nadal d Federer 64 64 67(5) 67(8) 97
Aus Open 2009: Nadal d Federer 75 36 76(3) 36 62
Masters 2010: Federer d Nadal 63 36 61
Basel 2015: Federer d Nadal 63 57 63

And Fed has only won 2 best of 5 matches at slams in the last 10 years. Best of 3 is meaningless since there is less on the line and anyone can win those. Totally different animal than going best of 5
 

BGod

G.O.A.T.
Wimbledon Final: Federer 2-1
Australia Final: Federer 1-1
WTF Title: Federer 1-0
French Open: Nadal 4-0


Looks decently even really. They met more on clay and slow hard than anything else.
 

roysid

Hall of Fame
Men's tennis is funny. Last year Nadal was wiped in his ass by Novak, Murray and pretty much everyone. And in Australia Nadal came so close to winning and we're jumping Nadal is favourite for French etc.
Once Novak comes to his form I don't see how Nadal beats him and wins tournament s. Murray too.
 

Fedeonic

Hall of Fame
Seriously, has Federer put a spell on Nadal on non-clay finals?
Since Aus Open 2009, Nadal can't win against Federer on a non-clay final. That's more than 8 years, considering that Federer was Nadal's pigeon.
 

Martinl

New User
While many laud the 23-15 H2H in Nadal's favour with Federer leading 13-10 in non-clay matches, but very few even mention that Federer leads 8-3 on non-clay finals and winning the last four, all of those 3 Nadal wins came in the deciding set.
Here's the breakdown:
Miami 2005: Federer d Nadal 26 67(4) 76(5) 63 61
Dubai 2006: Nadal d Federer 26 64 64
Wimbledon 2006: Federer d Nadal 60 76(5) 67(2) 63
Wimbledon 2007: Federer d Nadal 76(7) 46 76(3) 26 62
Wimbledon 2008: Nadal d Federer 64 64 67(5) 67(8) 97
Aus Open 2009: Nadal d Federer 75 36 76(3) 36 62
Masters 2010: Federer d Nadal 63 36 61
Basel 2015: Federer d Nadal 63 57 63
Aus Open 2017: Federer d Nadal 64 36 61 36 63
Miami 2017: Federer d Nadal 63 64
Shanghai 2017: Federer d Nadal 64 63
Nice stat. While Federer is 8-3 against Nadal in non-clay finals, he is only 3-2 against Nadal in non-clay Grand Slam finals.
 

Federev

Legend
And Fed has only won 2 best of 5 matches at slams in the last 10 years. Best of 3 is meaningless since there is less on the line and anyone can win those. Totally different animal than going best of 5
I just wanted to say I got to respond to the legendary “90s Clay”…even if he is only the echo of an indelible memory in the hallowed halls of TTW.

Fed changed 2 of 5 …to 4 of 8.

Not a bad finish for an old man on his last knees vs a much younger ATG.

Take care “90s Clay”.

I’m honored to reply to this post.
 

Martinl

New User
Yes, sad that Nadal doesn't make it as deep into non-clay slams to meet Djokovic more often. Clay GOAT.
Nadal has five Wimbledon finals and another two semi finals. He has five US open finals and another two or three (I think) semifinals. He has 6 AO finals. That is a pretty decent record in terms of deep runs into non-clay slams. And by the way, two of their ten (!) meetings at RG were in quarterfinals. So although the fact that most of their GS matches have been on clay (10!) is, in part due to Novak being more consistent in terms of making deep runs into RG than Nadal has been in terms of making deep runs into the other three grand slams, it is hardly the whole story.

Novak is actually more dominant against Nadal on Hard court (20-7) than Nadal against Djokovic on clay (20-8). On grass they are tied (2-2). However, Nadal is way more dominant against Novak in clay court Grand slams (8-2, and 3-0 in finals) than Djokovic against Nadal in Hard court grand slams (3-2, all matches were finals). Given that Nadal has not been overwhelmingly successful in Hard court masteer 1000s, at least when compared to Djokovic and Federer (Nadal never won Miami, never won Paris, only won Cincinatti once, only won Shanghai once) his 6 hard court GS are quite impressive.
I think the conclusion is that Nadal raises his hard court level in the hard court grand slams
 

Fedeonic

Hall of Fame
I'm always surprised that Federer was better in non-clay finals against Nadal than in non-clay non-final matches.
Federer ended 14-10 in hard/grass against Rafa, but the breakdown is the following:
-8-3 in finals
-6-7 in non-finals.
 

Martinl

New User
And beat him in 2 AO finals and 1 Wimby final.

Nadal not reaching Nole more on slams where Nole won 17 is nadal's fault.
True! But it is a little strange that Novak is "only" 3-2" against Nadal in HC GS finals whereas Nadal is 3-0 against Novak in Clay GS finals, considering that Novak is overall more dominant against Nadal on Hard Court (20-7) than Nadal against Djokovic on clay (20-8). But then, Novak does seem to have a general problem with USO finals, he has reached 10 finals at both AO and USO, in the former he is 10-0, in the latter he is 4-6 (and he lost four USO finals to players that he has defeated in AO finals)..
 
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