To anyone who always considers Federer to have a lucky draw

[joeri888]

Please name me the following:

1. the toughest out of Murray and Djokovic
2. the two toughest out of the 5 to 8th ranked
3 the 4 toughest out of 9-16.

I'd just like to compare after the draw, cause I always feel that Federer had a lucky draw no matter the outcome. Even in RG where all that really mattered was whereDjokovic landed, people were complaining about Fed's luck.

 

[All-rounder]

1.Murray
2.Del potro
3.Davydenko

 

[tudwell]

3-4:
Murray

5-8:
Del Potro
Roddick

9-16:
Tsonga
Soderling
Cilic
Davydenko

 

[thalivest]

For Federer and Nadal there is almost no such thing as a tough draw, other than maybe for Nadal on a very fast hard court/ indoor surface. Federer's toughest possible draw. Umm I would guess:

3/4- Djokovic on clay, Murray anywhere else

5-8- Del Potro on clay, Roddick anywhere else

9-16- Hardly anyone in this ranking has any shot anyway. Maybe Simon since he has beaten him twice on hard courts. Maybe Davydenko since he used to be a top 5 player before injuries this year. Maybe Nalbandian since he has one well vs Federer past.

 

[Cenc]

lol does it matter? he got dangerous djoko in roland garros and then pooooof kohlschreiber came and played a perfect match against djoko the same way gonzo did against murray and soderling against nadal
on the other hand none of them played a perfect match against fed

 

[Skanavis]

lol does it matter? he got dangerous djoko in roland garros and then pooooof kohlschreiber came and played a perfect match against djoko the same way gonzo did against murray and soderling against nadal
on the other hand none of them played a perfect match against fed

YEA!!! 10 char

 

[cucio]

I don't think Federer always has a lucky draw, although I consider he had in the last two tournaments, Madrid and RG. And draws prove lucky or unlucky afterwards, not before the tournament, you never know how things are going to pan out.

Anyway, speculating is fun... lemme see...

3-4: no easy draw here. Any of them is a tough draw for anyone, they'll probably win Queens and Halle respectively. Murray has looked perhaps a bit more dominant and has home crowd advantage, so I'll give him a small edge.

5-8: mmm, none of those look particularly dangerous on grass, always theoretically and based on previous results... on a stupidly good day perhaps Roddick, but that's a stretch nowadays. I think low bounces and ball skidding will have DelPo on his way home pretty early, but we'll see. Verdasco reached Nottingham finals last year, IIRC, I am curious about how will he fare on grass this year. Simon ain't looking all too impressive these days.

9-16: Soderling if he plays again like before RG finals. On the off-chance Cilic manages to keep his flat groundies over the tape for 3 sets he could be trouble. The rest... has any of them ever reached QF at Wimby? Blake perhaps?

17+: Haas seems sharp as of lately. Berdych, Jekyll-Nalbo can have a stupid day. Karlovic always makes you wonder, but he tends to wilt early on Wimby.

 

[zagor]

Please name me the following:

1. the toughest out of Murray and Djokovic
2. the two toughest out of the 5 to 8th ranked
3 the 4 toughest out of 9-16.

I'd just like to compare after the draw, cause I always feel that Federer had a lucky draw no matter the outcome. Even in RG where all that really mattered was whereDjokovic landed, people were complaining about Fed's luck.

If we're talking about Wimbledon I think having Murray in the SF will be a tough draw given that Andy is a tough match-up for Fed as evidenced by their H2H and also has crowd on his side.Other than that I think Nadal in the final,that's about it.

 

[akv89]

This might be the toughest possible draw at Wimbledon for Federer this year:

R128: Gulbis
R64: Haas
R32: Kohlschreiber
R16: Soderling/Tsonga
QF: Roddick
SF: Murray
F: Nadal

 

[egn]

This might be the toughest possible draw at Wimbledon for Federer this year:

R128: Gulbis
R64: Haas
R32: Kohlschreiber
R16: Soderling/Tsonga
QF: Roddick
SF: Murray
F: Nadal

That is definitely one hell of a draw though I would also for R32 give Karlovic.

R16 past would be absolute murder. The only way this draw could be tougher is if Gasquet was still around and in the early rounds, but I would agree that is probably the best assembled draw possible.

 

[jackson vile]

Please name me the following:

1. the toughest out of Murray and Djokovic
2. the two toughest out of the 5 to 8th ranked
3 the 4 toughest out of 9-16.

I'd just like to compare after the draw, cause I always feel that Federer had a lucky draw no matter the outcome. Even in RG where all that really mattered was whereDjokovic landed, people were complaining about Fed's luck.

IMO a large part of the time Roger ends up with a draw better suited to him winning (not always). Further more Roger ends up with a lot of luck where rain helps him out a lot, the rain never ever comes when Roger is playing well at Wim. only when he is doing poorly, for the Frech the surface was slowed down and bounce lower due to the rain, but did not stop the match to give Soderling even a chance.

I simply think that he is one of the most talented but also the most lucky tennis players ever, Roger has more luck than anyone else period.


Look at how many times in Nadals career that he just happend to meet someone that is just simply on fire, now think of how often that happens to Roger?

 

[R.Federer]

Look at how many times in Nadals career that he just happend to meet someone that is just simply on fire, now think of how often that happens to Roger?

total nonsense bagdhatis ao 06 gonazlez ao 07, sonderling fo 09, roddick 04, agassi uso 05, murray uso 08 were all on fire that tournament its just that federer has more options to choose from than nadal and can change up play so well, so even if they are playing out of there minds federer can still win with his great tennis ability

 

[Rhino]

So funny how people thought Federer was nearly beaten by "has-been" Haas. Go and and ask Djokovic how good Haas is these days, he'll tell you.

 

[joeri888]

Look at how many times in Nadals career that he just happend to meet someone that is just simply on fire, now think of how often that happens to Roger?

Simply on fire means you're just not good enough to deal with it. Beating Verdasco was a big sign he's maturing on hardcourts. Federer meets these guys, but he just doesn't let them hit those shots. His slicing and dicing just makes it impossible for big hitters to really outhit him.

@Zagor: I was talking Wimbledon here yes. I want to anticipate the trashtalk about Fed's lucky draw, because we'll here it whatever the draw. It might be true this time around but I'd like to hear in advance what a tough draw would look like.

What's truly remarkable is that everyone said: 8-16/5-8 hmm not really big threats for Federer there.. And then when the draw is out, they complain how easy his part is.

 

[tacou]

I don't think Federer always has a lucky draw, although I consider he had in the last two tournaments, Madrid and RG. And draws prove lucky or unlucky afterwards, not before the tournament

exactly. no further discussion on the luck of a draw needed

 

[joeri888]

exactly. no further discussion on the luck of a draw needed

This is exactly wrong. The initial draw is decided by luck, by chance, by probability margins and by statistical chance. The rest is up to the players involves zero luck. Nadal going out has nothing to do with luck.

 

[G_T_S]

This is exactly wrong. The initial draw is decided by luck, by chance, by probability margins and by statistical chance. The rest is up to the players involves zero luck. Nadal going out has nothing to do with luck.

I agree - Nadal's fate was in his own hands - but not having to face Rafa in the final was good luck for Fed! :lol:

 

[dh003i]

Yea, on clay, they dont' stop the play for minor rain. On grass, they have no choice because otherwise it is dangerous.

The idea that a rain break necessarily favors the players who are doing poorly is non-sense. It could just give them time to obsess over how poorly they're playing and be overwhelmed.

It depends on the player.

IMO a large part of the time Roger ends up with a draw better suited to him winning (not always). Further more Roger ends up with a lot of luck where rain helps him out a lot, the rain never ever comes when Roger is playing well at Wim. only when he is doing poorly, for the Frech the surface was slowed down and bounce lower due to the rain, but did not stop the match to give Soderling even a chance.

I simply think that he is one of the most talented but also the most lucky tennis players ever, Roger has more luck than anyone else period.


Look at how many times in Nadals career that he just happend to meet someone that is just simply on fire, now think of how often that happens to Roger?

 

[Cyan]

It's not just lucky draws. Also he gets lucky with the schedules. Rain screws others and their schedules, never him, he plays first before the rain, etc. Think USO 2008, etc. He is just one of the luckiest sportsmen ever. The way he won the FO seemed to be by divine intervention, TBH. He is luckier than Schumacher was from 2000-2004. But luck does not last forever in sports. Sooner or later you run out of luck like Schumacher in 2006.

 

[Deleted member 25923]

What? Always works in Roger's favor? how about when Roger had the momentum after winning the fourth set last year at Wimbledon?

 

[BreakPoint]

Federer always seems like he has a "lucky draw" because he kicks everyone's butt. Seriously, the only way Federer doesn't have a "lucky draw" is if he plays Nadal in the first round.

I mean, if the 100th ranked player gets the same exact draw as Federer, would you consider him "lucky"? :-?

 

[BreakPoint]

It's not just lucky draws. Also he gets lucky with the schedules. Rain screws others and their schedules, never him, he plays first before the rain, etc. Think USO 2008, etc. He is just one of the luckiest sportsmen ever. The way he won the FO seemed to be by divine intervention, TBH. He is luckier than Schumacher was from 2000-2004. But luck does not last forever in sports. Sooner or later you run out of luck like Schumacher in 2006.

Yeah, Federer was also so lucky that he wasn't born deaf, dumb, and blind and that he didn't become a quadriplegic in an auto accident.

Man, that guy is so lucky! :roll:

 

[tudwell]

Look at how many times in Nadals career that he just happend to meet someone that is just simply on fire, now think of how often that happens to Roger?

2007 Australian Open: Fernando Gonzalez plays lights out tennis the whole tournament, schooling Nadal in the quarterfinals. Federer straight sets him in the final.

2008 U.S. Open: Andy Murray's break-out slam. Big win over Nadal in the semis. Federer straight sets him in the final.

2009 French Open: Robin Soderling plays lights out tennis the whole tournament, beating Nadal in the fourth round. Federer straight sets him in the final.

Hmmm... I'm beginning to see a pattern.

 

[BreakPoint]

2007 Australian Open: Fernando Gonzalez plays lights out tennis the whole tournament, schooling Nadal in the quarterfinals. Federer straight sets him in the final.

2008 U.S. Open: Andy Murray's break-out slam. Big win over Nadal in the semis. Federer straight sets him in the final.

2009 French Open: Robin Soderling plays lights out tennis the whole tournament, beating Nadal in the fourth round. Federer straight sets him in the final.

Hmmm... I'm beginning to see a pattern.

And if Nadal played right-handed, Federer would have also schooled Nadal in all of their Grand Slam meetings and Nadal would now have ZERO Slams to his name. Uncle Toni was very wise to make Nadal play with his left-hand.

 

[joeri888]

It's not just lucky draws. Also he gets lucky with the schedules. Rain screws others and their schedules, never him, he plays first before the rain, etc. Think USO 2008, etc. He is just one of the luckiest sportsmen ever. The way he won the FO seemed to be by divine intervention, TBH. He is luckier than Schumacher was from 2000-2004. But luck does not last forever in sports. Sooner or later you run out of luck like Schumacher in 2006.

Whaha, you also have a thing against Schumacher than? From 2000-2004 his car was the fastest and he was always the best or one of the very best drivers around. I don't know what you are talking about when considering him too lucky. He just owned everyones ass. Pretty much like 'lucky Fed' from 2004-2007.
"Sooner or later you run out of luck like Schumacher in 2006." This we would call 'past your prime' and 'aging', it tends to happen to most people, even the greatest athletes.

 

[tacou]

This is exactly wrong. The initial draw is decided by luck, by chance, by probability margins and by statistical chance. The rest is up to the players involves zero luck. Nadal going out has nothing to do with luck.

that's exactly what I'm saying you fool. having Soderling as an opponent proved quite unlucky for Nadal, Davydenko and Gonzalez, all of whom were favorites going into the match.

you are using the word "luck" in a different way than I am, more as fortune than chance; Nadal was unlucky to face Soderling because Robin was playing much better than him on that day.