What is the percentage probability of Djokovic winning 4 slams in row?

What is the percentage probability of Djokovic winning 4 slams in row?

  • 0%

    Votes: 27 19.4%
  • 10%

    Votes: 27 19.4%
  • 20%

    Votes: 26 18.7%
  • 30%

    Votes: 6 4.3%
  • 40%

    Votes: 9 6.5%
  • 50%

    Votes: 9 6.5%
  • 60%

    Votes: 8 5.8%
  • 70%

    Votes: 9 6.5%
  • 80%

    Votes: 4 2.9%
  • 90%-100%

    Votes: 14 10.1%

  • Total voters
    139

ledwix

Hall of Fame
15% chance of winning both the Aussie Open and French Open this year is about where I'd put it. 50/50 for Aussie Open and maybe 30% for French.
 

ledwix

Hall of Fame
The only man ever to win 3 slams on 3 different surfaces in a calendar year is Nadal. Nadal has proven he can adapt and win on each slam surface in a short space of time. Nadal is the master of adapting from clay to grass.

You are truly and absolutely obsessed with this statistic, LOL. Other players have won on clay and grass in the same year, too, you know.

Djokovic isn't afraid of Nadal on clay. He currently owns him on all surfaces in terms of match-ups.
 

kiki

Banned
Actually if Djoker does do it, it will be twice as good as Laver's 69 and about 10 times as good as Laver's 62 since he's done it on 3 surfaces as opposed to Laver's 2 and he did it against a full field ( unlike Laver in 62 ) .. Deal with it :twisted:

Laver won on 3 different grass courts + clay: 4 surfaces.In your face.
 

kiki

Banned
Does anyone agree that it might be toughest for Novak if he would be meeting Murray in the semis (not easy for him, plus no added pressure for Murray because of Slamfinalfever) and then Federer (who would probably have to beat Nadal which is unlikely, but Nadal could lose to Tsonga, Ferrer or Del Potro in a Quarterfinal), who is really tougher for Novak than Rafa is.

jajaja.If I was Novak, I´d rather fear much more facing Lendl coached by Murray, than Murray coached by Lendl¡¡¡¡
 
Djoker's chances all really depend on Federer. There are no other factors that can stop the Djoker train. If Fed is healthy then it's unlikely Djoker wins 4 in a row. If Fed is not up to par then it's 100% chance Djoker wins 4 in a row. The only guy capable of challenging or beating Djoker in a slam is Federer. Proof? Check the data from 2011. QED.
 

aphex

Banned
Depends on Federer? Get out of here LOL We all know Novak can go right through Federer even if he is 100%, especially at the AO.



train_suicide_wideweb__430x307.jpg

Nice illustration of your sentence LolVile LOL
 

kiki

Banned
Who said the WTA tour is so weak nowadays ?...we´ve got Djokovic,Federer,Nadal and Murray...
 

Disgruntled Worker

Professional
No one was really expecting Novak to have the year he did in 2011. Everyone will be gunning for him now. So I'd say his chances are slim to none.
 
^ Is "Bullzilla" one of those internet abbreviations like "FTW"? I keep seeing it in your posts. Have a look at Nadal-Monfils head2head record http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=N409&oId=MC65 and tell me Nadal is not a horrible matchup for Monfils.....:lol:

How many of my posts have 'Bullzilla' in them for you to keep seeing them? Perhaps you are seeing things? As for H2H, you said Fed didn't have the best chance because Djokovic beat him there the last 6 sets, so you are only looking at the most recent results correct? So what was the most recent results regarding Nadal-Monfils? :) Get a clue.

If Nadal doesn't win AO I imagine you will disappear for a much longer time :) Hurrray.
 

jackson vile

G.O.A.T.
You are still around and you could care less about Novak, so I imagine he will stay around as well.

How many of my posts have 'Bullzilla' in them for you to keep seeing them? Perhaps you are seeing things? As for H2H, you said Fed didn't have the best chance because Djokovic beat him there the last 6 sets, so you are only looking at the most recent results correct? So what was the most recent results regarding Nadal-Monfils? :) Get a clue.

If Nadal doesn't win AO I imagine you will disappear for a much longer time :) Hurrray.
 

Tony48

Legend
Djoker's chances all really depend on Federer. There are no other factors that can stop the Djoker train. If Fed is healthy then it's unlikely Djoker wins 4 in a row. If Fed is not up to par then it's 100% chance Djoker wins 4 in a row. The only guy capable of challenging or beating Djoker in a slam is Federer. Proof? Check the data from 2011. QED.

Fed needs to be MORE than healthy to stand a chance. He needs to have a once in a lifetime performance.
 
Fed needs to be MORE than healthy to stand a chance. He needs to have a once in a lifetime performance.

What a joke. He beat Novak at FO when Nole was at his best and then at the USO he's up 2 sets to 0 and you would be lying if you thought Fed was going to lose that one. So get a clue.
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
What a joke. He beat Novak at FO when Nole was at his best and then at the USO he's up 2 sets to 0 and you would be lying if you thought Fed was going to lose that one. So get a clue.

I have a feeling Federer is going to end up in Nadal's half in Melbourne.
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
Yeah it's possible, now that Fedal has lost some of its lustre.

True. But I think also this way, Novak does not stand in the way of a Fedal match. In the last three HC slams, Federer has been beaten by only one man. We know who that is.
 
I'm currently thinking that Murray will finally break through and win the AO this year.

I thought that might happen too but after AO10 in which everyone thought Murray actually beat Nadal fair and square followed by true beatings by Nadal at all later slams when Murray should only be getting better, it proved Murray will never be in the class of what Djoker and Nadal are now.
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
I thought that might happen too but after AO10 in which everyone thought Murray actually beat Nadal fair and square followed by true beatings by Nadal at all later slams when Murray should only be getting better, it proved Murray will never be in the class of what Djoker and Nadal are now.

Maybe Ivan can help him there.
 

Mike Sams

G.O.A.T.
No one was really expecting Novak to have the year he did in 2011. Everyone will be gunning for him now. So I'd say his chances are slim to none.

Nobody's gonna be gunning for him. :lol: Everybody's gonna be gunning to win the damn tournament. Just like they always were. It's just that now they all have to go through Djokovic to do it. And that's going to be a monstrous challenge.
 

mattennis

Hall of Fame
I may be totally wrong but I have a feeling that this year is going to be Djokovic and Murray, that they will end as the top-2 and that all four GS will be won by them.

I really think Nadal and Federer are going down from here on...
 

Tony48

Legend
What a joke. He beat Novak at FO when Nole was at his best and then at the USO he's up 2 sets to 0 and you would be lying if you thought Fed was going to lose that one. So get a clue.

Fed's match against Djokovic at the French is widely considered one of the best matches that he has played in YEARS. And so what Fed was up 2 sets to none against Djokovic at the U.S. Open. Djokovic stepped it up and won those next two sets even more decisively than Fed won the 1st two. Djokovic was always capable of managing Federer....even in that French match where he served for the 4th, but Fed was just playing better that day.
 
Fed's match against Djokovic at the French is widely considered one of the best matches that he has played in YEARS. And so what Fed was up 2 sets to none against Djokovic at the U.S. Open. Djokovic stepped it up and won those next two sets even more decisively than Fed won the 1st two. Djokovic was always capable of managing Federer....even in that French match where he served for the 4th, but Fed was just playing better that day.

The point which you can't comprehend is that despite Djoker having the best year of his life and one of the best years of all time, Fed still took him out at the biggest show on clay and was on the verge of it at the USO. He's the only guy who showed any evidence of being able to battle Djoker at all on the big stage.
 

bullfan

Legend
Let's hope so. But when it comes to a slam, I just haven't seen any evidence of him being able to withstand the heat.

Hence, why Muzza has hired Lendl. It's hard to say how everyone is given that Novak didn't play a warm up, and that neither Federer or Nadal made it to the final of their warm up match. Muzza looked good, but was playing lower level players, so we'll just have to wait a few weeks to see if Muzza can get over himself to win.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
Very low. I think he got very lucky at Wimbledon this year. I'm not sure he would have beaten Fed on grass or even Murray. He benefited from Rafa being the finalist and having this huge mental block against him.
As for RG, he has never even made the final there, not saying he can't but it will be a challenge for sure and he can lose to a number of players any day on that surface.
Djoko also turns 25 this year. He doesn't have that many seasons left when he would be fit enough to achieve it.
 

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
Can Novak Djokovic do what both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer failed to do? Can he become the first man since Rod Laver to win four consecutive slams in a row?

Can he? Sure. Will he? Not so sure. I think he will win at least 2 slams this year and I think he is the clear favorite to win the AO, but not sure he will win the FO in 2012 so 4 in a row is doubtful. I still think Nadal will win the FO in 2012 but I will see how it goes and make a better determination once I see what happens in the next few months.
 

All-rounder

Legend
Very low. I think he got very lucky at Wimbledon this year. I'm not sure he would have beaten Fed on grass or even Murray. He benefited from Rafa being the finalist and having this huge mental block against him.
As for RG, he has never even made the final there, not saying he can't but it will be a challenge for sure and he can lose to a number of players any day on that surface.
Djoko also turns 25 this year. He doesn't have that many seasons left when he would be fit enough to achieve it.

A number of players?? You mean like how he lost to a number of player during the clay season?? :-| Despite Novak losing the SF against Federer he still could have won the match. People seem to forget he was serving for the 4th set until Fed broke back. Using Past results to indicate how well a player will do in the future means Novak will win 3 majors again. No? Remember Novak never made the Wimbledon final before last year and won it. So nobody knows how he will do at RG this year.
 
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Tony48

Legend
The point which you can't comprehend is that despite Djoker having the best year of his life and one of the best years of all time, Fed still took him out at the biggest show on clay and was on the verge of it at the USO. He's the only guy who showed any evidence of being able to battle Djoker at all on the big stage.

Yes, Federer was the guy. I don't know how long you expect Fed to keep it up though.
 
Yes, Federer was the guy. I don't know how long you expect Fed to keep it up though.

All I said was that Djoker's chances depend mostly on Fed because Fed is the only guy who proved it. Not saying he will stop Djoker again, but no other guy is on the table for that job.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
A number of players?? You mean like how he lost to a number of player during the clay season?? :-|



No, I mean like he's lost to Kohl and who was it? Melzer? at RG in previous years. Even in 2009, when he had a pretty stellar clay court season, losing to only Rafa in every clay event, he crashed early at RG. I'm not sure if it's the 5 set format or the slower clay that is the problem but Novak seems less comfortable in RG than in other clay court events. It doesn't mean he will never win it of course just that it may be a bit more difficult (of course the same could have been said about W and he did it, it's just that I'm not sure he can win lots of W and the question was about winning all 4 consecutively. I would love to see a player do it in my lifetime and I wish Novak all the best to achieve it but my opinion is that it is not very likely to happen).
 

Clarky21

Banned
No, I mean like he's lost to Kohl and who was it? Melzer? at RG in previous years. Even in 2009, when he had a pretty stellar clay court season, losing to only Rafa in every clay event, he crashed early at RG. I'm not sure if it's the 5 set format or the slower clay that is the problem but Novak seems less comfortable in RG than in other clay court events. It doesn't mean he will never win it of course just that it may be a bit more difficult (of course the same could have been said about W and he did it, it's just that I'm not sure he can win lots of W and the question was about winning all 4 consecutively. I would love to see a player do it in my lifetime and I wish Novak all the best to achieve it but my opinion is that it is not very likely to happen).



If a hard court mug like Nadal can win the USO and the AO,Norman can surely win RG.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
I didn't say he couldn't, I said him winning all 4 consecutively is not likely. (I think it will always be easier for him to win slams on hard than on clay and grass).
 

FlashFlare11

Hall of Fame
Nobody's gonna be gunning for him. :lol: Everybody's gonna be gunning to win the damn tournament. Just like they always were. It's just that now they all have to go through Djokovic to do it. And that's going to be a monstrous challenge.

Can you imagine what this must be making all the other players feel like? This guy that they all want to...have to beat went on one of the biggest tears in recent tennis history, across all surfaces. Now, it's almost as though they're playing on Djokovic's own turf, his favorite surface.

I don't know if a player can take him out in Australia. The only player capable, it seems, is Federer. But even then, it would take an enormous effort from him to do it.

1 more week to go!
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
I know. I want to see if Lendl will make a difference in Murray's mental because I think technically speaking, Murray has everything it takes to win the AO.
 

FlashFlare11

Hall of Fame
I know. I want to see if Lendl will make a difference in Murray's mental because I think technically speaking, Murray has everything it takes to win the AO.

Murray has everything it takes to win not only the AO, but I think Wimbledon and USO as well. When he is playing well, he can beat anyone, if he gets his head straight, he can do it in the slams as well.
 
C

celoft

Guest
Djokovic can definitely win the FO in the future. But if he wins the AO this year, the pressure of completing the Career Slam AND the NCYGS at the same time might be too much for him to handle. Who knows? I even think not winning the AO might be better for his chances of winning the FO. No way he is losing at 2 slams in a row being the best player and all. If he loses at the AO, it will probably be because of injury or heat exhaustion, virus. He is just way ahead of the tour right now.
 
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Djokovic can definitely win the FO in the future. But if he wins the AO this year, the pressure of completing the Career Slam AND the NCYGS at the same time might be too much for him to handle. Who knows? I even think not winning the AO might be better for his chances of winning the FO. No way he is losing at 2 slams in a row being the best player and all. If he loses at the AO, it will probably be because of injury or heat exhaustion, virus. He is just way ahead of the tour right now.

Djokovic won't be the best player of 2012 if Nadal wins the AO. Every year is different. Nadal owned 2008, Federer owned 2009, Nadal owned 2010, Djokovic owned 2011.
 

Clarky21

Banned
If a trolling bucket like you can post **** again and again,then anything is possible.


Geez,Tushy. Are you bi-polar or something? Lol. And what I said is true. If a one-dimensional,hard court mug like Nadal can win the USO/AO,then Norman can win RG since Norman is better on clay than Nadal has ever been on hard courts. What's untrue about that?
 
How did Magnus Norman get in this thread? And what was so great about Norman on clay? What achievement made Norman better on clay than Nadal is on hardcourt? Nadal has AO, USO, Olympic Gold, a couple of Indian Wells and Canadian masters. Norman has won 7 clay events but no slams, and Rome was the only truly big clay event he won.
 
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I doubt you will be here in 2 weeks, if this crazed tone of yours continues. You just had a post of yours deleted I see.

LOL, impossible to truly get rid of me. On the other hand you will be leaving from choice like you have done so many times in the past. Sulking and crying when your hero fails :)
 

CDNguy87

Hall of Fame
I would say his chaces of winning the AO are about 50-60%, and if he wins that, his chances of winning the FO would be about 30-40%. Based on that, combined probability would be somewhere between 15-24% (i.e: roughly 20%).
 

Clarky21

Banned
How did Magnus Norman get in this thread? And what was so great about Norman on clay? What achievement made Norman better on clay than Nadal is on hardcourt? Nadal has AO, USO, Olympic Gold, a couple of Indian Wells and Canadian masters. Norman has won 7 clay events but no slams, and Rome was the only truly big clay event he won.


Norman is better on clay than Nadal has been or ever will be on hard courts. Nadal spent years and years toiling around on hard courts without doing much because he's a dirtballer. At least Norman can win on all surfaces,and doesn't struggle like crazy on the very surface most of the tour is made up of. When Nadal loses his clay points this year,and in the following years,he is scr*wed.
 
LOL, impossible to truly get rid of me. On the other hand you will be leaving from choice like you have done so many times in the past. Sulking and crying when your hero fails :)

Relatively speaking, the Australian Open is not even relevant to me. I only care about Roland Garros. It would be a complete bonus if Nadal wins any events this year apart from Roland Garros. And I think he will win many more events, but just saying, RG is the only essential event.
 
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