What was Federer's best chance against Nadal at Roland Garros ?
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Djokovic_is_the_best#1
Bionic Poster
RG 2011
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
2006 imo.
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
Lol I forgot I posted this. No one can say I’m not consistent
mental midget
Hall of Fame
glad someone mentioned that. scoreline wasn't outrageously close but yeah, he was in it and playing well.
Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
Feel like this is one of those matches that was closer than the scoreline reflects and one in which the scoreline is unflattering to the loser.
LaVie en Rose
Hall of Fame
He never had one.They could play 100 times he would lose each time.Other single BHs (Thiem)would have had bigger chance than than pathetic excuse of Fede*error slice BH .
LaVie en Rose
Hall of Fame
Fed*error over Nadal has 2 (1 legitimate) wins on clay.Both in specific conditions,fastest possible on clay.RG ? No way!
nolefam_2024
G.O.A.T.
I think 2005 Federer had best chance. Nadal was fast but so what. Speed is not enough vs players playing 94/95% winning seasons.
Federer was not in any disadvantage in this match. He was in better physical shape than his young rival. He had no mental baggage as well.
I think Federer did play a little bit casual in 2005. He went for too much on fh to force the issue. Some of the mishits from his fh wing on regulation balls are not expected from a guy who is called to have best forehand of all time.
After 2005, 2006 was close. I don't think Federer had mental baggage yet but Rafa had already learned his tactics vs federer. Still the match could go to fifth and anything could happen.
2007/2008 he had very little chance. Even though 2007 he might have won more pts, but it pales in comparison to pressure put vs Nadal.
2011 was as good as 2006 but not as good as 2005. He was still just 29 and he was fit as hell.
2019 no chance.
Federer was not in any disadvantage in this match. He was in better physical shape than his young rival. He had no mental baggage as well.
I think Federer did play a little bit casual in 2005. He went for too much on fh to force the issue. Some of the mishits from his fh wing on regulation balls are not expected from a guy who is called to have best forehand of all time.
After 2005, 2006 was close. I don't think Federer had mental baggage yet but Rafa had already learned his tactics vs federer. Still the match could go to fifth and anything could happen.
2007/2008 he had very little chance. Even though 2007 he might have won more pts, but it pales in comparison to pressure put vs Nadal.
2011 was as good as 2006 but not as good as 2005. He was still just 29 and he was fit as hell.
2019 no chance.
2005. He had the game but his FH failed him. 2006 he had a good chance too. Anything after then I would put at 0. Even if he wins the 1st set in 2011 Nadal would win in the end, probably in 5.
2007 was a bit lower than 2005/2006, his FH had lost something by then and Nadal’s level was higher.
2007 was a bit lower than 2005/2006, his FH had lost something by then and Nadal’s level was higher.
Pheasant
Legend
I'm changing my answer on this from 2 years ago. I used to figure that 2005-2006 was Fed's best chance. Those were 2 of his 3 best years overall. But he still lost in 4 sets each year. He's not winning on clay vs Nadal; even during those peak years. My new answer is 2017 for a few reasons:
1. Nadal's footspeed had clearly dropped 2-3 levels by then. This is by far the biggest reason. This version of Nadal was not running down many of Fed's cannon shots on all surfaces that year. Even at IW and Miami, Fed was able to blast shots past Nadal on those very slow surfaces. The 2005-2009 version ran down Fed's shots on all surfaces. Now granted, 2017 Nadal served a bit better. But that often doesn't matter much against Fed.
2. Fed's carefree attitude that year made him very clutch.
3. Fed had the new backhand that was incredibly dangerous.
4. Fed's retooled backhand had him playing extremely well on slow hardcourt surfaces. He won the Sunshine Double that year. Fed has always struggled against Nadal on those slow hardcourt surfaces. But in 2017, he punished him.
5. Fed in 2019, despite being 3 years removed from his last clay match, played quite well on clay. Madrid was his first clay court series in 3 years. He got to the QF and pushed peak Thiem hard, including having match points against him. He played in Rome and also made the QF, but had to withdraw before the match with a leg injury. Oh yeah, and 2019 Fed made it to the semis of RG; LMAO!!! This is 2-year-older rusty-as-heck Federer. 2017 Federer would have been dangerous; likely the #2 clay court player that year. I'd bet on it.
With all of this being said, I'd still put Nadal as a 3/1 favorite. But this is the match that I would have loved to see between Nadal and Federer at RG. We can toss out the time machine. Straight up, 2017 Fed has a slight chance against the slower 2017 Nadal on clay.
1. Nadal's footspeed had clearly dropped 2-3 levels by then. This is by far the biggest reason. This version of Nadal was not running down many of Fed's cannon shots on all surfaces that year. Even at IW and Miami, Fed was able to blast shots past Nadal on those very slow surfaces. The 2005-2009 version ran down Fed's shots on all surfaces. Now granted, 2017 Nadal served a bit better. But that often doesn't matter much against Fed.
2. Fed's carefree attitude that year made him very clutch.
3. Fed had the new backhand that was incredibly dangerous.
4. Fed's retooled backhand had him playing extremely well on slow hardcourt surfaces. He won the Sunshine Double that year. Fed has always struggled against Nadal on those slow hardcourt surfaces. But in 2017, he punished him.
5. Fed in 2019, despite being 3 years removed from his last clay match, played quite well on clay. Madrid was his first clay court series in 3 years. He got to the QF and pushed peak Thiem hard, including having match points against him. He played in Rome and also made the QF, but had to withdraw before the match with a leg injury. Oh yeah, and 2019 Fed made it to the semis of RG; LMAO!!! This is 2-year-older rusty-as-heck Federer. 2017 Federer would have been dangerous; likely the #2 clay court player that year. I'd bet on it.
With all of this being said, I'd still put Nadal as a 3/1 favorite. But this is the match that I would have loved to see between Nadal and Federer at RG. We can toss out the time machine. Straight up, 2017 Fed has a slight chance against the slower 2017 Nadal on clay.
nolefam_2024
G.O.A.T.
That's very very bold take. I think he would have almost no chance in 2017. You see the way he won so much was staying in the baseline and taking the first shot. He had no safety left. He could do amazing on fast courts vs big players. But vs KOC on clay, wow, he would get straight setted with that approach. Just like it happened in 2019.
Pheasant
Legend
2017 Fed was substantially better than 2019 Fed. 2019 Fed wasn't hitting the ball as hard from both wings and he had lost a little more foot speed. And he was far rustier on clay, since he was 3 years removed from playing on that surface. I'm not given 2005-2008, 2011, and 2019 Fed any chance vs Nadal those years at RG. We've seen that show before and it ended badly for Fed. I'm switching to 2017 Fed; the carefree version of Fed that had just butchered the slower version of Nadal on hard court surfaces(something 6-3, 6-2 at IW and 6-3, 6-4 at Miami).
But, you may be right. This would be yet another slaughter by Nadal at RG. 2017 Fed might not have a chance either. That's quite possible. But based on what I've seen, my money is on 2017 Fed; even though he'd still be an big underdog there as well.
nolefam_2024
G.O.A.T.
But all of Federer's exploits came on due to first strike tennis. No one can get this working in bo5 on clay vs Nadal. I will say even Thiem will beat him in RG by this point. Clay will remove all the advantage his new backhand gave him.
There is a glitch in the matrix.
D
Dwell
Guest
careful, you might lead him into an existential crisis
lidoazndiabloboi
Hall of Fame
If we are only looking at the times that they did play at RG, I would definitely say 2019. If we are just theorizing his greatest opportunity, you could be right about 2017.
By 2019, Fed was riding a 5 match win streak vs Rafa. At the 2019 RG semis, the conditions were just absolutely horrendous. The moment I saw how the wind was gusting in the 1st set, I knew Fed had no chance. They should have postponed that match to the following day. But instead tournament organizers decided to play on, which resulted in an abysmal match, and loss by Fed 3, 4, & 2. But the following match between Djokovic and Thiem, did eventually get postponed to the next day in the 3rd set, due to high winds and rain. I would have loved to see a normal match between, Fed and Rafa, as that was probably the one time I felt super confident, that Fed had a chance to beat Rafa at RG.
nolefam_2024
G.O.A.T.
It would have been even worse without wind. 3 2 2 or something worse.
lidoazndiabloboi
Hall of Fame
LOL, why would you think it would be worse? The windy conditions most definitely favor Rafa as all he has to do is get the ball in and wait for a Fed error.
nolefam_2024
G.O.A.T.
Fed was not able to stay with nadal from back. The windy conditions added more uncertainity to the rallies. It affected both.
Martin J
Hall of Fame
Don't think that Fed was ever close to beating (prime) Nadal at RG, sadly. Though the 2007 and 2011 matches were quite entertaining and less predictable due to Fed's BH holding pretty well against Ned's FH. His BH was great in 2019 too, but Fed was too old to defend well enough.
Mustard
Bionic Poster
The best Federer form against Nadal in a French Open match was probably 2007, but his break point conversion rate in the first set killed his chances. I also think 2007 was the second or third best Nadal ever at the French Open, only behind 2008 and neck and neck with 2012. 2017 was the best of all in terms of one-sided match scorelines, but that was largely because of Nadal's superior serving by his standards at the 2017 French Open.
2006 had Federer winning the first set 6-1, so a great situation there against a Nadal that wasn't playing as well at the 2006 French Open as in the French Open in other years near 2006.
2005 had Federer going into the French Open semi final as favourite against Nadal. Federer had won 11 matches in a row on clay (and 28 sets in a row) while Nadal had won 24 matches in a row on clay. Nadal won this semi in 4 sets on his 19th birthday, getting the win just before the light faded.
2011 would have been a very different kind of match in the final had Federer won the first set, but I still think Nadal would have won it, but 2011 is another chance for Federer perhaps. Overall, I'd say 2007 was Federer's best chance.
2006 had Federer winning the first set 6-1, so a great situation there against a Nadal that wasn't playing as well at the 2006 French Open as in the French Open in other years near 2006.
2005 had Federer going into the French Open semi final as favourite against Nadal. Federer had won 11 matches in a row on clay (and 28 sets in a row) while Nadal had won 24 matches in a row on clay. Nadal won this semi in 4 sets on his 19th birthday, getting the win just before the light faded.
2011 would have been a very different kind of match in the final had Federer won the first set, but I still think Nadal would have won it, but 2011 is another chance for Federer perhaps. Overall, I'd say 2007 was Federer's best chance.
welcome2petrkordaland
Professional
I say 2006, 2005, & 2011 in that order; however, I don’t recall the scoreline —wasn’t it 4 sets?—or the feel of 07, so 2007 is likely tied for second or third with 2005 & 2011, respectively. By not just 2007 but even 2006, there was significant mental damage done on Federer in this matchup on clay, so I definitely agree with some that 2005 being their first clay meeting didn’t have all that history, damage, etc. So it was more “in the air” imho. That first point in 2005 semi RG is absurd and hilarious at the same time.
In 2006 RG given the Monte Carlo and especially epic (& for Fed devastating) Rome finals, it was a mental conundrum for Federer and many would say he really didn’t have full belief deep down. Still, Fed came out rolling to a 5-0 lead and took the first set 6-1. Nadal answered 6-1 in the second. Fed’s level was awesome but it just wasn’t enough and it got warm and muggy iirc that day.
2011 Federer came out guns blazing but missed that dropshot on set point, which spelled doom for his chances even though he still played excellent iirc and won a set against a sub par Nadal.
Hypothetical 2017– now many may wonder why Fed skipped clay when healthy. It’s likely he was gunning for Wimby, which he won, so in his mind his strategy worked. It’s indeed a shame that he didn’t contest the French given how he flipped the anomalously bad Nadal matchup when he won down under, IW, AND Miami! I speculate that Federer would’ve matched up well that year and had chances vs. Rafa at RG. Impossible to know. Nadal, in his defense, destroyed the competition in 2017. The way Federer was striking it so early and cleanly in AO 17 makes me think he may have had a decent chance against slowDal, as Rafa could no longer run everything down like 2004-2012ish.
2019 and that wind presented several challenges to 37 year old Fed. Imho the wind definitely hurt Fed more, as he’s the more precise, attacking, shotmaking player compared to Nadal in such a clay matchup. Without the wind, things could have been different. I was shocked at how high level they played in such horrible conditions! I always liked to think about who would’ve won had Fed gotten past Nadal in that 2019 semi. Thiem was playing and well and I believe even beat Fed at IW final; however, Fed was looking amazing despite being 37!
In 2006 RG given the Monte Carlo and especially epic (& for Fed devastating) Rome finals, it was a mental conundrum for Federer and many would say he really didn’t have full belief deep down. Still, Fed came out rolling to a 5-0 lead and took the first set 6-1. Nadal answered 6-1 in the second. Fed’s level was awesome but it just wasn’t enough and it got warm and muggy iirc that day.
2011 Federer came out guns blazing but missed that dropshot on set point, which spelled doom for his chances even though he still played excellent iirc and won a set against a sub par Nadal.
Hypothetical 2017– now many may wonder why Fed skipped clay when healthy. It’s likely he was gunning for Wimby, which he won, so in his mind his strategy worked. It’s indeed a shame that he didn’t contest the French given how he flipped the anomalously bad Nadal matchup when he won down under, IW, AND Miami! I speculate that Federer would’ve matched up well that year and had chances vs. Rafa at RG. Impossible to know. Nadal, in his defense, destroyed the competition in 2017. The way Federer was striking it so early and cleanly in AO 17 makes me think he may have had a decent chance against slowDal, as Rafa could no longer run everything down like 2004-2012ish.
2019 and that wind presented several challenges to 37 year old Fed. Imho the wind definitely hurt Fed more, as he’s the more precise, attacking, shotmaking player compared to Nadal in such a clay matchup. Without the wind, things could have been different. I was shocked at how high level they played in such horrible conditions! I always liked to think about who would’ve won had Fed gotten past Nadal in that 2019 semi. Thiem was playing and well and I believe even beat Fed at IW final; however, Fed was looking amazing despite being 37!
nolefam_2024
G.O.A.T.
I have no idea why this hypo fed will suddenly beat nadal on clay when his game actually got worse on slow surface by this time. He started ballbashing in order to finish pts quickly. That won't work vs Nadal as he had already tried that in 2005, 2006. Of course he wouldn't beat Nadal from the baseline so he would have to come in more but not to the 2017 extent.
Roger is still single hander with backhand nowhere close to the Thiem Wawrinka power level. And sadly clay will not allow him to win without pushing Nadal back. Wawrinka could do absolutely nothing in 2017. No idea what Fed would do to win 3 sets from Nadal.
Roger is still single hander with backhand nowhere close to the Thiem Wawrinka power level. And sadly clay will not allow him to win without pushing Nadal back. Wawrinka could do absolutely nothing in 2017. No idea what Fed would do to win 3 sets from Nadal.
welcome2petrkordaland
Professional
Nachiket, this is all speculation and conjecture. I’m not saying Fed would’ve beaten Nadal in 2019 without that wind or hypo 17 RG. It is clear Fed in 17 had neutralized the fh to bh pattern with Nadal and was taking bh groundies as well as returns much earlier and hitting more cleanly. Not to mention Fed’s fh was bigger when he got his feet set his last few years than it had been maybe 2014-2016. It just seemed deadly with his overhead finish like I said, when he was set. Fed’s bh yes, is less powerful than Wawa and peak Thiem, but you’re forgetting Fed’s versatility and shot making ability. I would speculate that without that crazy wind, he takes a set and makes it much closer in 2019 RG semi. Fed’s drop shot would be deadly versus oldDal, too, with Nadal’s diminished speed & agility.
welcome2petrkordaland
Professional
Unfortunately for Federer (besides the wind), Nadal did his thing and rose to the occasion. Just look at that acute angle cc bh on set point to take the first set. Sick.
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
He was crispy af wasn’t he
nolefam_2024
G.O.A.T.
Yeah he was. Better than 2021.He was crispy af wasn’t he
Mustard
Bionic Poster
2005 French Open semi final: Rafael Nadal def. Roger Federer (6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3)
2006 French Open final: Rafael Nadal def. Roger Federer (1-6, 6-1, 6-4, 7-6)
2007 French Open final: Rafael Nadal def. Roger Federer (6-3, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4)
2008 French Open final: Rafael Nadal def. Roger Federer (6-1, 6-3, 6-0)
2011 French Open final: Rafael Nadal def. Roger Federer (7-5, 7-6, 5-7, 6-1)
2019 French Open semi final: Rafael Nadal def. Roger Federer (6-3, 6-4, 6-2)
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
Nadal gatekept like crazy lol. Federer would have 26 slams right there.
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