When will Djokovic next win a slam via "tough" draw (according to this forum), and who will be involved in it?

jl809

Hall of Fame
Ruud
Cramparaz
Tsitsipas
Paul
Kyrgios
Norrie
Berrettini
Shapovalov.

As far as I can tell, since Footdal + Tsitsipas (RG 21) and Zverev + Medvedev (AO 21), this forum has been reduced to a frothing wreck at the processional nature of Djoker's most recent slam wins (myself included on grass). The clouds parted beautifully as Alcaraz got a handle on Djoker's serve in set 2 of the RG SF this year and it looked like we had an actual Tough Match, in which Djokovic might lose sets EVEN IF he played well. but then we know what happened.

We all know Djoker ain't done winning Ze Slams here. So when is the next time we will see an actual Tough Opponent at the late stages of a slam win for Djoker? Will it be taking down Nadal again next year at RG? Edging out Meddy and a cramp-free Charlie at the US Open? Will Andy Murray rise to the call at Wimbledon this year, and continue his Centre Court sets won streak vs the 4 time defending champion?
 

weakera

Talk Tennis Guru
Even the hardest possible draw at Wimbledon could not be considered a hard draw at this point. At US Open, something like Zverev-Alcaraz-Medvedev could definitely be considered tough.
 

ibbi

G.O.A.T.
giphy.gif
 

fedfan24

Hall of Fame
AO21,23, W21,22, RG23.., all absolute crap


Only chance of a remotely tough draw would be at the USO, something like Medvedev, Zverev, Alcaraz
 

SonnyT

Legend
Nothing less than Alcaraz (cramps-less) will do, he's the savior of tennis! Is that too much of a kid who just turned 20?
 

jl809

Hall of Fame
Will we still be waiting after USO 23? :unsure:

When he got a non-cramping Alcaraz in a slam at W23… finally a tough opponent… he lost…
 

initialize

Hall of Fame
Only way for him to get a "tough" draw (per Career Inflation Era standards) is if he played someone like Medvedev + peak Zverev in his half with Alcaraz in the final. His last several slams have had absolute nobodies before the final
 

jl809

Hall of Fame
.
"Usain Bolt is a 'weak era vulture' because he never raced somebody faster than him."
2012 Olympics in London is probably the strongest 100m race in history tbh. Sadly Tsitsipas and Paul ain’t the tennis equivalent of Yohann Blake or Tyson Gay
Only way for him to get a "tough" draw (per Career Inflation Era standards) is if he played someone like Medvedev + peak Zverev in his half with Alcaraz in the final. His last several slams have had absolute nobodies before the final
Yep. No-one was complaining about Cincy 23 being a weak draw for that exact reason
 

daggerman

Hall of Fame
2012 Olympics in London is probably the strongest 100m race in history tbh. Sadly Tsitsipas and Paul ain’t the tennis equivalent of Yohann Blake or Tyson Gay

Tsitsipas actually kinda is the tennis equivalent of Yohann Blake. Transport either of them 20 years in the past and they're the best in the world. But in their own era they came up short against GOAT-level athletes.

You only think the 2012 Olympics was the "strongest" 100m race because they actually time the runners. If we didn't know what the times were, your results-based analysis would likely lead you to argue Blake wouldn't have been able to compete with Carl Lewis or Maurice Green.
 
Joker not taking advantage of his weakest ever draw, aka the retirement parade at US '16, is hilarious. Of course, the defense is that the mentally strong goat was thrown off rhythm by said parade of walkovers/retirements. And let's not forget that pesky toenail...

Is there a draw weaker than that? 1 walkover + 2 retirements + guru tanking with style in the semis
 

daggerman

Hall of Fame
Joker not taking advantage of his weakest ever draw, aka the retirement parade at US '16, is hilarious. Of course, the defense is that the mentally strong goat was thrown off rhythm by said parade of walkovers/retirements. And let's not forget that pesky toenail...

Is there a draw weaker than that? 1 walkover + 2 retirements + guru tanking with style in the semis

Nobody is forcing you to watch tennis lol
 

LaVie en Rose

Hall of Fame
Joker not taking advantage of his weakest ever draw, aka the retirement parade at US '16, is hilarious. Of course, the defense is that the mentally strong goat was thrown off rhythm by said parade of walkovers/retirements. And let's not forget that pesky toenail...

Is there a draw weaker than that? 1 walkover + 2 retirements + guru tanking with style in the semis
Vajda said he didn’t even think he will play USO 16 (injured his wrist at OG ,Zimonic confirmed as he was at the practice).At the end they decided to play and draw started to open.Pesky toenail?,Lajovic just retired due nail infection that flared up after going through Q and beat Sinner.You thought Novak is faking inflamed ,bloody toenail ?Sheesh you ppl
 

jl809

Hall of Fame
Tsitsipas actually kinda is the tennis equivalent of Yohann Blake. Transport either of them 20 years in the past and they're the best in the world. But in their own era they came up short against GOAT-level athletes.

You only think the 2012 Olympics was the "strongest" 100m race because they actually time the runners. If we didn't know what the times were, your results-based analysis would likely lead you to argue Blake wouldn't have been able to compete with Carl Lewis or Maurice Green.
You think Tsitsipas would have been the best player in the world in 2003?
 

jl809

Hall of Fame
Let me seee....

Kyrgios
Wawrinka
Agut
Hurkacz
Fokina
Medvedev
Alcaraz

And they would still complain how easy draw is.
Except no-one on the forum was complaining about Cincy 23 being a weak M1000 win though, which shows they clearly draw the line somewhere
 

SonnyT

Legend
As of right now, the only tough draw for either Djokovic or Alcaraz is for the other one waiting at the end. If not, then the draw is eminently easy.
 

LaVie en Rose

Hall of Fame
Except no-one on the forum was complaining about Cincy 23 being a weak M1000 win though, which shows they clearly draw the line somewhere
Novak has most top 10, most top 5 wins (higest % of match playing 28% to their 22% ) of the big 3, among them won the most titles against 2 or more top 10.

Instead of being obsessed with him why not opening another of your delightful threads manifesting Murray victory by profound tennis analysis
 

daggerman

Hall of Fame
You think Tsitsipas would have been the best player in the world in 2003?

Yeah, but I don't even offer that as some controversial opinion. To me it's pretty obvious that he'd have been the best in the world. It's not meant to be lofty praise of Tsitsipas, either. He has some serious flaws in his game, but my point is that they're only flaws in the context of today's game. The standards for ballstriking, athleticism, and overall professionalism have changed dramatically over the last 20 years.

Ben Simmons can't shoot a lick, but in 2003 he'd have just dunked every time. Who's stopping him? That's not praise of Ben Simmons; that's just the nature of sports. The games evolve. Older athletes should be venerated for their contributions. They're a large part of the reason evolution is even possible.

If somebody wanted to make the case that the ~5th-best tennis player in 2023 ought to be better than Tsitsipas, go right ahead. But saying he's worse than the best players from 2003 is patently nonsensical, in my view.
 

The Blond Blur

G.O.A.T.
Yeah, but I don't even offer that as some controversial opinion. To me it's pretty obvious that he'd have been the best in the world. It's not meant to be lofty praise of Tsitsipas, either. He has some serious flaws in his game, but my point is that they're only flaws in the context of today's game. The standards for ballstriking, athleticism, and overall professionalism have changed dramatically over the last 20 years.

Ben Simmons can't shoot a lick, but in 2003 he'd have just dunked every time. Who's stopping him? That's not praise of Ben Simmons; that's just the nature of sports. The games evolve. Older athletes should be venerated for their contributions. They're a large part of the reason evolution is even possible.
Dude…he literally has a 5-5 record at the 2-1 Open. He’s not losing to GOAT tier level players. He’s losing to literally any top 50 player. Last year he lost to some random qualifier.

This is just honestly one of the worst takes I’ve seen on here. Citybus’s game has holes in his game that would be an issue regardless of what era he played in.

Who’s going to stop Ben Simmons? Idk how about prime Shaq, Duncan, Garnett, Wallace, Howard etc.
 

daggerman

Hall of Fame
Dude…he literally has a 5-5 record at the 2-1 Open. He’s not losing to GOAT tier level players. He’s losing to literally any top 50 player. Last year he lost to some random qualifier.

This is just honestly one of the worst takes I’ve seen on here. Citybus’s game has holes in his game that would be an issue regardless of what era he played in.

Who’s going to stop Ben Simmons? Idk how about prime Shaq, Duncan, Garnett, Wallace, Howard etc.

Yeah, I mean, it's "his flaws are exploitable only in today's game" vs. "his flaws are exploitable in any era." But I feel comfortable believing that the level of ballstriking and athleticism of today's game is meaningfully different from 20 years ago, both in general and as it pertains to the extent to which Tsitsipas weaknesses are weaknesses. Like, obviously if Tsitsipas played a team of high schoolers his "weak" backhand return would look GOAT-level. That's sorta the gist of my point. It's simply a question of how you perceive the difference in quality between then and now. It's not unusual for fans to think the quality was actually higher back then. I won't pretend like you're an idiot for feeling that way, if you do. I just don't think it's the correct way to view things.

None of the NBA players you named could stay in front of Simmons aside from Garnett. Had you said "Garnett could stop him, as a matter of fact. Maybe Ron Artest, too." I'd have no choice but to respect your answer. But instead of giving a credible answer, you chose to just list some NBA players who are roughly Ben Simmons' height.
 

The Blond Blur

G.O.A.T.
Yeah, I mean, it's "his flaws are exploitable only in today's game" vs. "his flaws are exploitable in any era." But I feel comfortable believing that the level of ballstriking and athleticism of today's game is meaningfully different from 20 years ago, both in general and as it pertains to the extent to which Tsitsipas weaknesses are weaknesses. Like, obviously if Tsitsipas played a team of high schoolers his "weak" backhand return would look GOAT-level. That's sorta the gist of my point. It's simply a question of how you perceive the difference in quality between then and now. It's not unusual for fans to think the quality was actually higher back then. I won't pretend like you're an idiot for feeling that way, if you do. I just don't think it's the correct way to view things.

None of the NBA players you named could stay in front of Simmons aside from Garnett. Had you said "Garnett could stop him, as a matter of fact. Maybe Ron Artest, too." I'd have no choice but to respect your answer. But instead of giving a credible answer, you chose to just list some NBA players who are roughly Ben Simmons' height.
If we’re talking about overall as in the top 100 the level of athleticism has increased, but if we’re talking about the top 20-30 then it’s actually declined like crazy. It’s not just Citybus either, pretty much all the top players have crippling holes in their games (with fewer strengths to compensate) that would prevent them from winning schlems. It’s also not unusual for fans to think that the new current era is better than ever and that *insert whatever* is always evolving.

Look if you didn’t watch basketball back in the 2000’s that’s ok, but I absolutely didn’t pick those guys because they’re close to the same height as Simmons lol. I listed them because they’d absolutely hammer his marshmallow soft game. He’d get pushed around by those guys so hard he’d have to fake another back injury.
 

daggerman

Hall of Fame
Look if you didn’t watch basketball back in the 2000’s that’s ok, but I absolutely didn’t pick those guys because they’re close to the same height as Simmons lol. I listed them because they’d absolutely hammer his marshmallow soft game. He’d get pushed around by those guys so hard he’d have to fake another back injury.

I name dropped Ron Artest. Do you really think I didn't watch basketball in the 2000s? Can you at least keep your unnecessarily hostile internet banter realistic? You can call me an idiot if you want, but obviously I watched if I'm bringing up Artest (and only Artest) in a conversation about guarding a 6'10" perimeter player.
 

daggerman

Hall of Fame
Go wash your mouth out with soap, good sir.

I rather have somebody say this than accuse me of not watching basketball after I name drop Ron Artest. That's like accusing me of not watching tennis in the 2000s after I bring up Paradorn Srichaphan in a conversation about flexibility.

I can respect this.
 

The Blond Blur

G.O.A.T.
I name dropped Ron Artest. Do you really think I didn't watch basketball in the 2000s? Can you at least keep your unnecessarily hostile internet banter realistic? You can call me an idiot if you want, but obviously I watched if I'm bringing up Artest (and only Artest) in a conversation about guarding a 6'10" perimeter player.
Literally never called you an idiot. If anything you’re the one getting upset. Besides, Simmons can’t even play from the perimeter unless he’s giving the ball. The dude can only dunk or lay the ball up if he’s trying to score.
 

Kralingen

Talk Tennis Guru
I name dropped Ron Artest. Do you really think I didn't watch basketball in the 2000s? Can you at least keep your unnecessarily hostile internet banter realistic? You can call me an idiot if you want, but obviously I watched if I'm bringing up Artest (and only Artest) in a conversation about guarding a 6'10" perimeter player.
I’ll allow this take if it means you think LeBron is GOAT.
 

Poisoned Slice

Bionic Poster
Dude…he literally has a 5-5 record at the 2-1 Open. He’s not losing to GOAT tier level players. He’s losing to literally any top 50 player. Last year he lost to some random qualifier.

This is just honestly one of the worst takes I’ve seen on here. Citybus’s game has holes in his game that would be an issue regardless of what era he played in.

Who’s going to stop Ben Simmons? Idk how about prime Shaq, Duncan, Garnett, Wallace, Howard etc.
Kendrick Perkins. :p
 

TheFifthSet

Legend
Yeah, I mean, it's "his flaws are exploitable only in today's game" vs. "his flaws are exploitable in any era." But I feel comfortable believing that the level of ballstriking and athleticism of today's game is meaningfully different from 20 years ago, both in general and as it pertains to the extent to which Tsitsipas weaknesses are weaknesses. Like, obviously if Tsitsipas played a team of high schoolers his "weak" backhand return would look GOAT-level. That's sorta the gist of my point. It's simply a question of how you perceive the difference in quality between then and now. It's not unusual for fans to think the quality was actually higher back then. I won't pretend like you're an idiot for feeling that way, if you do. I just don't think it's the correct way to view things.

None of the NBA players you named could stay in front of Simmons aside from Garnett. Had you said "Garnett could stop him, as a matter of fact. Maybe Ron Artest, too." I'd have no choice but to respect your answer. But instead of giving a credible answer, you chose to just list some NBA players who are roughly Ben Simmons' height.

He could’ve been more civil about it sure, but I don’t think these were bad names to bring up in response.

Close to 90% of Simmon’ career shots have come within 10 feet of the hoop, and a little over half (53%) right at the cup, where his finishing rates are good but not mind-blowing. In a more rim-focused game he would have to meet many of these big men at the hoop, where finishing rates have risen almost perfectly in tandem with 3pt attempts (better spacing, less clogged lanes, smaller bodies).

I’m sympathetic to the idea that Simmons might be quite a ways more impactful in ‘03, but IMO that would be more so because the league would be kinder to his weaknesses rather than amplifying his strengths. An 18 year old LeBron didn’t appear to have appreciably worse measurables than Ben, and he combined it with a perimeter game that, at the very least, had to be respected…and yet his real breakthrough didn’t come until a year later, when offences surged after the league tinkered with the ruleset. That was in ‘04-‘05.
 
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Kralingen

Talk Tennis Guru
I wanna hear Kral’s take on this tbh
I'm sitting in my car in the Wake Forest football stadium parking lot, waiting for the rain to stop, because I stupidly bought Winston-Salem 250 tickets for the one night in the entire North Carolinian summer when it decides to rain.

I swear if Coric plays like a mug when this rain finally stops I'm going to lose it. I'll give this a shot.

OK, so obviously Tsitsipas is not even close to a flawless player or someone who can be consistently relied upon to beat most players even in 2023 imo. His high spin-rate poly style (like Thiem's) may have some rare benefits when it's on, but his BH also has some clear drawbacks, especially on return. He has to rely on timing his strokes perfectly to avoid shanks and loopy shots, and concedes court positioning as a result, when he plays closer to the baseline, he can be rushed quite easily off both wings.

And the way that Novak so summarily demolishes him even now does not bode well for his prospects a decade ago. Even Murray, who literally has a metal hip that severely impacts his movement and ability to rotate into shots, is able to push him to the absolute limit. It is stupefying to suggest that Stefanos is ever going to be the undisputed best player in the world in really any scenario, to me.

What I think is more likely, though, is that using a time machine, Tsitsipas may initially beat some of the guys from 03 who hadn't seen his style before, but as with anything, they would adapt, figure out his weaknesses, use some of his techniques, and eventually usurp him and beat him regularly.

I generally think that sports, and athletics in general, are incredibly reactive pursuits. And reactivity is really how the game evolves. Someone starts doing something new, the opponents have to catch up, the level raises. And specifically in tennis, technology (both strings, racquets, surfaces, shoes, and general nutrition/training) causes new variables in the game forcing players to react. So this is why you might say on an absolute level 2023's top players are the best ever (I disagree, I don't think they're much better than 15 years ago - maybe 25 to 30 years ago, but that is mainly technology)

To make this short. You can draw such an obvious through-line for each level of player throughout history that I think much of this is just about the circumstances players have imposed on them. I don't truly believe any top players are that much better than others, just subject to different circumstances. Tilden beat Budge, who beat Gonzales, who beat Laver, who beat Borg, who beat Lendl, who beat Sampras and Agassi, who beat Federer, who beat Djokovic, who is now beating Alcaraz. Albert Pujols just hit 30 home runs at nearly age 45. LeBron James who played against Gary Payton and Karl ****ing Malone is still the best player on the floor in certain playoff games vs. Jokic, Tatum, Anthony Edwards, etc.

I think that 2023 players are allowed to do things that were not possible 20 years ago. For example Lleyton Hewitt played in 03 but he didn't slide on HCs and also wasn't using poly back then. However, even after suffering serious hip injuries, Hewitt was still out moving top players in the early 2010s, Federer among them. So it suggests to me that these players are not better movers, they specifically train to slide and play on surfaces and with shoes deliberately engineered for that exact purpose. And we saw old guys like Hewitt in 2013 upset prime “evolved” Del Potro in Flushing using this new movement principle even if it wasn’t a staple of his 00-05 movement.

It’s like Jason Kidd learning to become an elite 3 point shooter at the end of his career, and taking down the Heatles in 2011 despite being well past his best. Not going to ding guys for not emphasizing things that were either not possible or not practiced when they played. The other thing is, Tim Duncan could absolutely shut down Simmons in 2003... He was able to protect the rim at an elite level even with no hips and knees in 2014 against LeBron freaking James.
 

Kralingen

Talk Tennis Guru
I need to ask him one question.

Where Curry at?
Getting ****ing benched by his college coach in 1978 for taking idiotic long shots before the 3 point line was invented, getting cut for shooting 40% on 'step back threes' that only count for twos and being too small, and going to work at Harris Teeter for the rest of his life instead of being the best shooter ever.

This is the other part of it. How exactly would Tsitsipas look using a woodie with his modern technique? His laughable BH return would literally be humilated over and over by McEnroe approaching in 1983 if he had to use those fly swatters they call racuqets back then.

This is the unfair part. We always do forward thinking comparisons but never backwards.
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
2021 RG was the last time Djokovic had an atleast decent draw to win.
18 Wim Nadal last tough opponent.
For a tough draw per se, you have to go back as far as Wim 14. (stepanek, tsonga, cilic ,dimi, fed)
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
Yeah, I mean, it's "his flaws are exploitable only in today's game" vs. "his flaws are exploitable in any era." But I feel comfortable believing that the level of ballstriking and athleticism of today's game is meaningfully different from 20 years ago, both in general and as it pertains to the extent to which Tsitsipas weaknesses are weaknesses. Like, obviously if Tsitsipas played a team of high schoolers his "weak" backhand return would look GOAT-level. That's sorta the gist of my point. It's simply a question of how you perceive the difference in quality between then and now. It's not unusual for fans to think the quality was actually higher back then. I won't pretend like you're an idiot for feeling that way, if you do. I just don't think it's the correct way to view things.

None of the NBA players you named could stay in front of Simmons aside from Garnett. Had you said "Garnett could stop him, as a matter of fact. Maybe Ron Artest, too." I'd have no choice but to respect your answer. But instead of giving a credible answer, you chose to just list some NBA players who are roughly Ben Simmons' height.
So you're telling me all the guys across an entire decade (born in the 90's) who've won as many slams as one guy born in 2003 would be Laver's 20 years ago?
 

Sputnik Bulgorov

Professional
Yeah, but I don't even offer that as some controversial opinion. To me it's pretty obvious that he'd have been the best in the world. It's not meant to be lofty praise of Tsitsipas, either. He has some serious flaws in his game, but my point is that they're only flaws in the context of today's game. The standards for ballstriking, athleticism, and overall professionalism have changed dramatically over the last 20 years.

Ben Simmons can't shoot a lick, but in 2003 he'd have just dunked every time. Who's stopping him? That's not praise of Ben Simmons; that's just the nature of sports. The games evolve. Older athletes should be venerated for their contributions. They're a large part of the reason evolution is even possible.

If somebody wanted to make the case that the ~5th-best tennis player in 2023 ought to be better than Tsitsipas, go right ahead. But saying he's worse than the best players from 2003 is patently nonsensical, in my view.

I think the proposition of putting Tsitsipas ahead of Federer, Roddick, Ferrero and Agassi in 2003 is pretty damn controversial. Tsitsipas has an even h2h with Federer even when their first meeting happened when Federer was 37.5. He’d have an even harder time keeping up with a younger, fresher, faster and more explosive Federer.

The standards for athleticism have increased because of the sheer physicality Djokovic, Nadal and now, Alcaraz, have brought to the game, but players don’t actually live up to that standard. That’s why Djokovic and Nadal kept winning slams against 20 year olds. It’s why Alcaraz surpassed every single top player born in the 90’s before his 21st birthday.
 
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