You are offered 10 million dollars to run a 4:30 mile within 1 year. Here are the stipulations. You only get 1 shot at it, barring practice of course, and you have to do a real mile and not 4 laps at your local track which could easily be shorter than a regulation track. 10 million would set you for life, but is it worth quitting your current job and investing a year of training for it? Elite milers would have no problem with a 4.5 time, but can a non elite miler accomplish this goal within a year?
A 4:30 mile requires a steady state VO2 of about 74 ml/min/kg, and assuming a typical anaerobic work capacity typical of an elite male athlete who could generate about 110% of their VO2 max for that duration, could be done with a VO2 max of about 67 ml/min/kg.
This is a level that is beyond average genetic capabilities, and because a person loses about 1% in VO2 max per year over about age 35 or so, must be accomplished by someone fairly young or someone exceptionally gifted. This is a level in a man that is genetically possible in probably around 1 in 50,000 in the 20-35 age group.
For women, the highest verified laboratory measured VO2 max values have been in the middle 70's, and with lower anaerobic work capacity probably means a woman would need 68 or 69 ml/min/kg VO2 to run that duration. This is probably closer to 1 in 1,000,000 in the 20-35 age range.
So, in the US with a population of about 225 million, there are probably about 5000 living men who have ever had that capability, maybe 500 of whom are in the right age range. For women, there are probably about 150 women who have ever had that capability, maybe 15 or so who would be in the right age range.
Almost assuredly, men who have this capability will be athletic in some capability. It is probably about as common as being nearly 7' tall, so the ability would be easily recognized just in PE class in school. Among the women, it would clearly be noticed very early on.
