Will Djokovic be In/Out of Year End Top 10?

[BGod]

His current ranking for the year is #20 after losing Monte Carlo.

He's currently 280 points out of #10.

The guys ahead of him between #19-11 of note are Murray, Nishikori, Pouille, Berdych and Zverev.

For my money, I think it all falls on the Slams, if he has early exits prior to R16 at both, he likely finishes outside.

 

[r2473]

He'll be #1

 

[Tennisanity]

Yeah, he'll be back. The field can't play above Djokovic 2015 level forever.

 

[sportsfan1]

Last year Djokovic lost in the second round to Jiri Vesely, and then went on to win RG. Of course this year he's had more losses, but it goes to show that performance at MC is not necessarily an indicator for the rest of the year. Grand slam performance certainly is, so we have to wait for RG.

 

[BGod]

Last year Djokovic lost in the second round to Jiri Vesely, and then went on to win RG. Of course this year he's had more losses, but it goes to show that performance at MC is not necessarily an indicator for the rest of the year. Grand slam performance certainly is, so we have to wait for RG.

Hasn't won a major title since Canadian Masters. 2nd and 3rd Round exits last 3 Slams. Aided greatly by match-ups, 2 walkovers and a retirement at USO to reach Final.

Can't put it all on RG, if he fails to win any major titles this year he's certainly outside Top 5.

 

[-NN-]

In.

 

[VexlanderPrime]

2nd and 3rd Round exits last 3 Slams.

Wut

He'll figure it out eventually, doubt he'll drop out of top 5

 

[OrangePower]

Of course he will be in the top 10. Really it doesn't take much these days.
Look at Berdych who ended #10 last year:

Slams: 1 SF, 2 QF
1000: 4 QF

Basically you just need to make QF in half the slams and 1000's. Anything on top of that is gravy.

Does anyone seriously think Novak isn't going to achieve at least that?

 

[BGod]

Of course he will be in the top 10. Really it doesn't take much these days.
Look at Berdych who ended #10 last year:

Slams: 1 SF, 2 QF
1000: 4 QF

Basically you just need to make QF in half the slams and 1000's. Anything on top of that is gravy.

Does anyone seriously think Novak isn't going to achieve at least that?

Don't forget it's easier to get into Top 10 if the Top 3 is grabbing all the big points. This appears to be a more even year with some outside guys getting Masters titles. Anywho, to your question:

2nd Round at Slam
4th Round at Masters
Skipped
Quarter at Masters
*Attended 1 250 event and won

So far, this has got him #20 on the year. So clearly not quite enough for Top 10.

He's likely to skip 1 more Masters event, maybe Canada, but then that's his last major title. If he loses prior to the 4th Round at 2/3 Slams this year, that might very well be the death nail.

 

[Poisoned Slice]

 

[Deleted member 716271]

Waiting till after RG to pass judgement on Novak.

 

[OrangePower]

Don't forget it's easier to get into Top 10 if the Top 3 is grabbing all the big points. This appears to be a more even year with some outside guys getting Masters titles. Anywho, to your question:

2nd Round at Slam
4th Round at Masters
Skipped
Quarter at Masters
*Attended 1 250 event and won

So far, this has got him #20 on the year. So clearly not quite enough for Top 10.

He's likely to skip 1 more Masters event, maybe Canada, but then that's his last major title. If he loses prior to the 4th Round at 2/3 Slams this year, that might very well be the death nail.

Yeah, but it's so early in the season that the gap between Novak at #20 and the #10 spot is currently < 300 points.
And some of the guys above him are there only because of a good result at a smaller tournament (500/250).
If Novak makes QF at the majority of the remaining slams and 1000s then it will be enough for top ten.

 

[Roddick85]

In all honesty, I'd be surprised to see him out of the top 10 by YE, but he's free falling at the moment, so anything is possible. I'd like to believe he'll shake this off sooner rather than later and perhaps win some titles again, but I think his days of being the man to beat (like 2011, 2015) are over. What concerns me with Djokovic's downfall isn't his physical problems, as he should be able to recover from those eventually. What worries me is he looks done mentally speaking.

 

[Deleted member 743561]

The only opinion that matters here, or carries any weight, is Srdan Djokovic's. What is his latest take?

 

[BGod]

Yeah, but it's so early in the season that the gap between Novak at #20 and the #10 spot is currently < 300 points.
And some of the guys above him are there only because of a good result at a smaller tournament (500/250).
If Novak makes QF at the majority of the remaining slams and 1000s then it will be enough for top ten.

Statistically the chances of him finishing outside the Top 8 let alone 10 spots is about 10% at the moment.

We'll see Verdasco's 2009 for reference, where he finished #9:

S-Q-4-4 at the Slams
Q-Q-Q-Q-Q-3-1-2-3 at Masters
3 Finals at 250 events, winning 1

So yeah, certainly achievable, but right now Novak has a 2nd round exit at a Slam and one Q at a Master.

 

[smoledman]

In all honesty, I'd be surprised to see him out of the top 10 by YE, but he's free falling at the moment, so anything is possible. I'd like to believe he'll shake this off sooner rather than later and perhaps win some titles again, but I think his days of being the man to beat (like 2011, 2015) are over. What concerns me with Djokovic's downfall isn't his physical problems, as he should be able to recover from those eventually. What worries me is he looks done mentally speaking.

Agreed he's mentally done.


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[Chanwan]

Statistically the chances of him finishing outside the Top 8 let alone 10 spots is about 10% at the moment.

We'll see Verdasco's 2009 for reference, where he finished #9:

S-Q-4-4 at the Slams
Q-Q-Q-Q-Q-3-1-2-3 at Masters
3 Finals at 250 events, winning 1

So yeah, certainly achievable, but right now Novak has a 2nd round exit at a Slam and one Q at a Master.

how do you measure that statistically? I can't see how it can be anything other than your estimate and expectation
Barring major injury, he's def. in top 10 and top-8, high probability of top-5 and decent probability of top-3 or better imo.

 

[Sentinel]

Son of God will make it inshallah!

 

[ollinger]

Is 5555 the ultimate "fair weather friend"?? Can we please hear from this Djokovic shill when his boy is down in the dumps??

 

[InsideOut900]

I finally reached the point where I no longer trust Djokovic after yesterday's match.
He made life complicated for himself the whole tournament and in the end he left the court gassed.

If he doesn't do anything until RG, he will be in the same situation as Nadal 2015 ranking-wise.

And who can expect him to have a resurgence in the 2nd part of the season, on his weaker surfaces?

 

[BGod]

how do you measure that statistically? I can't see how it can be anything other than your estimate and expectation
Barring major injury, he's def. in top 10 and top-8, high probability of top-5 and decent probability of top-3 or better imo.

In reference to the 10%? It's a flat ballpark given his odds and historical precedent. However his last 9 months has opened the door.

If he were to say, lose 3rd Round at Rome & Madrid and 4th at French. The odds would increase given the remaining schedule.

You saying high probability of Top 5 is purely subjective considering his recent performances.

 

[Chanwan]

In reference to the 10%? It's a flat ballpark given his odds and historical precedent. However his last 9 months has opened the door.

If he were to say, lose 3rd Round at Rome & Madrid and 4th at French. The odds would increase given the remaining schedule.

You saying high probability of Top 5 is purely subjective considering his recent performances.

Historical precidence tells you that the Big 4 do not leave the top-5 if they play a full year with no significant injuries (exception possibly being Rafa 2015).
If you were to follow the odds, you wouldn't even entertain the idea that he's not top-10 at the end of the year. Bookies still have him as a top-2 favorite for the 3 remaining slams.

But yeah, my estimates are subjective too - based on what I know from past history, how I view the field and Novak's situation etc., etc.