Federer has practically secured YE#1

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
Yes, Federer will be 2017's YE number 1.

With Rafa at 7095 and Fed at 6545 coming out of Wimbledon, it seems practically a sure thing.

In Federer's average full season recently, 2015, he gained 3335 points after Wimbledon(In his worst, 2013, he gained 1210 points after Wimbledon). In Rafa's only/worst full season recently, 2015, he gained 1500 points. (in 2013 he gained an anomalous 5720) According to this, Rafa either needs to pull off a 2013-esque performance to keep Federer from overtaking him in the race, or Federer needs to play really poorly- neither of which is likely to happen. I do think, though, that Rafa will get more than 2000 points after Wimbledon this year, however, Federer needs just 400 more points than Rafa after Wimbledon, and that has happened every year in the past 10 years other than in 2013 and 2010. Chance of Federer beating Rafa after Wimbledon: 80%.

Federer (2013): 7,755
Federer (2015): 9,880
Nadal (2015): 8,595
Nadal (2013): 12,815

Yet, there is another contender. Djokovic has 2585 points coming out of Wimbledon. If we put Federer at 9880 points, then Djokovic would need to gain 7500 points to gain #1. Even in his imperious 2015, Djokovic was "only" able to gain 6400 points after Wimbledon. The ONLY shot Djokovic would have would be for Federer to gain less than 2000 points and for him to gain 6000 points. That would be roughly equivalent to Novak having a 2015-like post-Wimbledon season, and Federer having a roughly 2013-like season. Chance of beating Novak after Wimbledon: 95%.

Federer (2013): 7,755
Federer (2015): 9,880
Djokovic (2015): 9,345
Djokovic (2016 (average)): 6,685

The final contender- Murray. 2290 points after Wimbledon. In 2016, Murray gained a great 4460 points after Wimbledon! If we assume he gets that many after Wimbledon 2017, that brings him up to 6750 points. That means that Nadal would need to get negative points after Wimbledon and Federer would need to get less than 205 points after Wimbledon. No chance. Murray's chances of YE#1 go to 0%.

So the chances of Federer's YE#1 go up to roughly 76%.
 

reaper

Legend
Yes, Federer will be 2017's YE number 1.

With Rafa at 7095 and Fed at 6545 coming out of Wimbledon, it seems practically a sure thing.

In Federer's average full season recently, 2015, he gained 3335 points after Wimbledon(In his worst, 2013, he gained 1210 points after Wimbledon). In Rafa's only/worst full season recently, 2015, he gained 1500 points. (in 2013 he gained an anomalous 5720) According to this, Rafa either needs to pull off a 2013-esque performance to keep Federer from overtaking him in the race, or Federer needs to play really poorly- neither of which is likely to happen. I do think, though, that Rafa will get more than 2000 points after Wimbledon this year, however, Federer needs just 400 more points than Rafa after Wimbledon, and that has happened every year in the past 10 years other than in 2013 and 2010. Chance of Federer beating Rafa after Wimbledon: 80%.

Federer (2013): 7,755
Federer (2015): 9,880
Nadal (2015): 8,595
Nadal (2013): 12,815

Yet, there is another contender. Djokovic has 2585 points coming out of Wimbledon. If we put Federer at 9880 points, then Djokovic would need to gain 7500 points to gain #1. Even in his imperious 2015, Djokovic was "only" able to gain 6400 points after Wimbledon. The ONLY shot Djokovic would have would be for Federer to gain less than 2000 points and for him to gain 6000 points. That would be roughly equivalent to Novak having a 2015-like post-Wimbledon season, and Federer having a roughly 2013-like season. Chance of beating Novak after Wimbledon: 95%.

Federer (2013): 7,755
Federer (2015): 9,880
Djokovic (2015): 9,345
Djokovic (2016 (average)): 6,685

The final contender- Murray. 2290 points after Wimbledon. In 2016, Murray gained a great 4460 points after Wimbledon! If we assume he gets that many after Wimbledon 2017, that brings him up to 6750 points. That means that Nadal would need to get negative points after Wimbledon and Federer would need to get less than 205 points after Wimbledon. No chance. Murray's chances of YE#1 go to 0%.

So the chances of Federer's YE#1 go up to roughly 76%.

Djokovic is more a contender to not play another match this year than to end the year at number 1.
 

reaper

Legend
I wouldn't say so even though historical trends do point to this. He's only going to play five tournaments at most (Cincy, USO, Shanghai, Basel, WTF), maybe even four. Nadal will probably play 7 or 8. I easily see Nadal win enough points to get YE#1.

If he's neck and neck with Nadal for number 1 and feeling good, I suspect Federer will play a few more tournaments.
 

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
How is it a sure thing when he is 550 points behind Rafayel?
Because even in his more mediocre seasons, historically he's performed better than Nadal after Wimbledon.

Also because the only 2 times he didn't perform better than Nadal it was because Nadal won the US Open.

Also because Federer's record this year so far is 32-2 whereas Nadal's is 46-7. Federer has won every hard court tournament he's entered this year except for Dubai, and he loves to play Cincinatti and the WTF, so I see an easy 2500 points right there. Rafa, though, is less consistent at the end of the year and he's never won the WTF. I just see no outcome where Nadal ends as #1.
 

deBroglie

Professional
I think he'll skip two of the remaining M1000s (can't play Cincinnati and Canada consecutively, and Paris is a really boring tournament), so I expect 5 tournaments - Cincinnati, US Open, Shanghai, Basel, WTF. That would make it 12 tournaments over the year. I think Rafa is likely to finish at #1 because he has been so consistent throughout the year (making so many finals).
 

Federer and Del Potro

Bionic Poster
I think he'll skip two of the remaining M1000s (can't play Cincinnati and Canada consecutively, and Paris is a really boring tournament), so I expect 5 tournaments - Cincinnati, US Open, Shanghai, Basel, WTF. That would make it 12 tournaments over the year. I think Rafa is likely to finish at #1 because he has been so consistent throughout the year (making so many finals).

My biggest concern, with both of them actually, is inevitable fatigue. At their age and with the mileage they've accrued this season, I wouldn't be surprised if both hit a wall for the rest of the year. YE #1 going to be an interesting race, that's for sure.
 

Dilexson

Hall of Fame
A lot of it depends on the US open. If Federer wins that he will aim for the YE #1 , i think.
He'd even add more tournaments to his schedule. May be Paris, Shanghai. If Rafa wins that he'd play everything available probably.

Sent from my SM-G531H using Tapatalk
 

ACE of Hearts

Bionic Poster
A lot of it depends on the US open. If Federer wins that he will aim for the YE #1 , i think.
He'd even add more tournaments to his schedule. May be Paris, Shanghai. If Rafa wins that he'd play everything available probably.

Sent from my SM-G531H using Tapatalk

If Federer wins the u.s open he should be number 1 period! Who cares about these tournaments! It's all about the grand slams and you can't tell me a guy with 1 GS on the year deserves it over a guy with 3.
 

xFullCourtTenniSx

Hall of Fame
If my math is right, Murray is defending 5460 points for the rest of this year... With only 7750 to his name. Given that he basically sweeped the tour at this point, all Nadal needs in order to reclaim #1 is to deny Murray a few deep runs.

Nadal defends 370, Federer defends nothing, and Djokovic defends 3740 of his 6325.

This could've been a year where every player in the big 4 held the #1 ranking at one point if only Djokovic won WTF 2016. Unfortunately (for him), he didn't, so we got Fedal and Murray looking like they'll share the #1 ranking throughout different parts of this year. That could very well be the most action the #1 spot has seen in... Decades...

I see it most likely that Nadal gets to #1. All he needs is either 1) a really good performance (a USO final or masters 1000 title), 2) a good performance and one poor showing from Murray (Murray fails to defend a title and Nadal scores a few hundred points, with a few quarterfinals or an ATP 500 title), 3) one really poor showing from Murray (bombs ANY tournament he's defending points), or 4) two or three bad results.

Not saying it's unlikely that Federer reclaims #1, but it's more likely that Nadal does it, then Federer takes it soon after. More work is required from Federer. He has to outpace Nadal by 700 points, which is entirely possible (just have a Fedal final with Federer winning it), but requires several titles or several early exits from Nadal to accomplish (keeping in mind that we're expecting Federer to pace himself). If he actually reclaims #1, he could potentially finish this season with his best winning percentage ever, since it would require that he loses as few matches as possible on his lighter schedule.
 
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TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
If my math is right, Murray is defending 5460 points for the rest of this year... With only 7750 to his name. Given that he basically sweeped the tour at this point, all Nadal needs in order to reclaim #1 is to deny Murray a few deep runs.

Nadal defends 370, Federer defends nothing, and Djokovic defends 3740 of his 6325.

This could've been a year where every player in the big 4 held the #1 ranking at one point if only Djokovic won WTF 2016. Unfortunately (for him), he didn't, so we got Fedal and Murray looking like they'll share the #1 ranking throughout different parts of this year. That could very well be the most action the #1 spot has seen in... Decades...

I see it most likely that Nadal gets to #1. All he needs is either 1) a really good performance (a USO final or masters 1000 title), 2) a good performance and one poor showing from Murray (Murray fails to defend a title and Nadal scores a few hundred points, with a few quarterfinals or an ATP 500 title), 3) one really poor showing from Murray (bombs ANY tournament he's defending points), or 4) two or three bad results.

Not saying it's unlikely that Federer reclaims #1, but it's more likely that Nadal does it, then Federer takes it soon after. More work is required from Federer. He has to outpace Nadal by 700 points, which is entirely possible (just have a Fedal final with Federer winning it), but requires several titles or several early exits from Nadal to accomplish (keeping in mind that we're expecting Federer to pace himself). If he actually reclaims #1, he could potentially finish this season with his best winning percentage ever, since it would require that he loses as few matches as possible on his lighter schedule.
I never said Nadal wouldn't have #1 at some point in the year. I just think he needs a few more wins than Nadal. Say Federer wins Cincinatti and Nadal loses in the QF. That's 720 points right there. Not that hard.
 

Bukmeikara

Legend
Because even in his more mediocre seasons, historically he's performed better than Nadal after Wimbledon.

Also because the only 2 times he didn't perform better than Nadal it was because Nadal won the US Open.

Also because Federer's record this year so far is 32-2 whereas Nadal's is 46-7. Federer has won every hard court tournament he's entered this year except for Dubai, and he loves to play Cincinatti and the WTF, so I see an easy 2500 points right there. Rafa, though, is less consistent at the end of the year and he's never won the WTF. I just see no outcome where Nadal ends as #1.

Federer is 36, you cant expect him to have a flawless season like 2006. As for now he got the absolute maximum from everything and normal logic suggest that he would go down sooner than later. You could be certain that Nadal would play every possible tournament, so likely he would enter 2 extra onces compared to Roger - on average 500 points + the 550 he got= 1100. In this scenario if Rafa outperform Fed at the Open than he is pretty much number 1, see how easy it is for that to happen?! Basicaly you need for Roger to fail at the Us Open(fall before the SF) and that makes Rafa almost uncatchable. Also during the summer hard court he has about 15-20 extra guys that could cause Roger more trouble compared to grass + Nadal may not have won plenty of titles in the Fall but when he enters them with motivation and not just because of the paycheks he always reaches QF-F. Just look at his Fall in 2015 - Final Beijing, SF Shanghai(he should have beaten Tsonga in that match), Final Basel, QF Paris(down two tiebrieks against Wawrinka) and SF at the WTF. If he replicates those results, for Roger is quite the mission imposible.
 

merlinpinpin

Hall of Fame
I think he'll skip two of the remaining M1000s (can't play Cincinnati and Canada consecutively, and Paris is a really boring tournament), so I expect 5 tournaments - Cincinnati, US Open, Shanghai, Basel, WTF. That would make it 12 tournaments over the year. I think Rafa is likely to finish at #1 because he has been so consistent throughout the year (making so many finals).

I have him skipping two to *three* M1000's out of the four that are left, and still getting YE #1, ie
- Canada: probably skips. But if he doesn't, loses in the first round to a Canadian wildcard rankerd 200+
- Cincinatti: wins, beating Nadal either in the semi or in the final, depending on the draw
- US Open: wins, beating Nadal in the final (fifth set tie-break, anyone?)
- skips the whole Asian swing
- Stokholm: loses in his first match against the new Swedish hopeful, aged 16 & ranked 500-700 (or is it 700-1,200?)
- Basel: wins while Nadal plays (and loses) in Valencia
- skips Paris Bercy
- London Masters: wins, beating Nadal in the semi or final, depending on Rafa's RR matches

That's 5,000 more points to the goods, more than enough to secure YE #1.

That would put his 2017 year at:
- 9 tournaments won, including 3 slams and the Masters
- 6 wins in a row over Nadal (7 total, and counting--time to protect the H2H in 2018, Rafa?)
- no loss to the top 115 all year

Not too shabby at 36. Seems legit enough. Book it! :D

Of course, this would also get him to 97 total titles, and he would then start chasing the one record everybody knew he just had no chance to break, ie Connors 109 tournament wins... ;)
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
A lot of it depends on the US open. If Federer wins that he will aim for the YE #1 , i think.
He'd even add more tournaments to his schedule. May be Paris, Shanghai. If Rafa wins that he'd play everything available probably.

Sent from my SM-G531H using Tapatalk
If Fed wins the USO - which I think even this year is a long shot - he'll be #1 regardless of ranking from the ATP. No way a man wins three majors in a year and is not #1.

With three majors people would just laugh at the idea of anyone being better this year.
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
I have him skipping two to *three* M1000's out of the four that are left, and still getting YE #1, ie
- Canada: probably skips. But if he doesn't, loses in the first round to a Canadian wildcard rankerd 200+
- Cincinatti: wins, beating Nadal either in the semi or in the final, depending on the draw
- US Open: wins, beating Nadal in the final
- skips the whole Asian swing
- Stokholm: loses in his first match against the new Swedish hopeful, aged 16 & ranked 500-700 (or is it 700-1,200?)
- Basel: wins while Nadal plays (and loses) in Valencia
- skips Paris Bercy
- London Masters: wins, beating Nadal in the semi or final, depending on Rafa's RR matches

That's 5,000 more points to the goods, more than enough to secure YE #1.

That would put his 2017 year at:
- 9 tournaments won, including 3 slams and the Masters
- 6 wins in a row over Nadal (7 total, and counting--time to protect the H2H in 2018, Rafa?)
- no loss to the top 115 all year

Not too shabby at 36. Seems legit enough. Book it! :D

Of course, this would also get him to 97 total titles, and he would then start chasing the one record everybody knew he just had no chance to break, ie Connors 109 tournament wins... ;)
So you are ready to gift Nadal 6 wins in a row over Fed, in advance????
 

BlackSilver

Semi-Pro
When will the genius of this forum understand that Nadal isn't playing anything special? Got the second truly easy draw of his life in Australia (anyone that doesn't think Zverev+Dimitrov are an easy draw, specially for him, is a fool IMO) and was able to reach the final playing average tennis. Then another easy draw in Miami. And now is gonna to play the summer hardcourt season, where the faster courts makes easier to blown him up.

There is more chance that he will be blown up by the first mildly good offensive player that he faces, like Verdasco in AO, Fognini in 2015 or Poullie last year than to reach final. Or the genius here think he has been defeated by DJokovic in the last years ?
 

aman92

Legend
When will the genius of this forum understand that Nadal isn't playing anything special? Got the second truly easy draw of his life in Australia (anyone that doesn't think Zverev+Dimitrov are an easy draw, specially for him, is a fool IMO) and was able to reach the final playing average tennis. Then another easy draw in Miami. And now is gonna to play the summer hardcourt season, where the faster courts makes easier to blown him up.

There is more chance that he will be blown up by the first mildly good offensive player that he faces, like Verdasco in AO, Fognini in 2015 or Poullie last year than to reach final. Or the genius here think he has been defeated by DJokovic in the last years ?
No only geniuses like you think that Nadal is anywhere close to his 2015-16 level. He is miles better
 

The_18th_Slam

Hall of Fame
Federer has won every mandatory tournament he's played this season so far, and he still trails Nadal by 500 points. The YE#1 is far from guaranteed.

He'll need to play at least 5 more tournaments this year, and play them well, if he wants to get that spot, because it's probably more of a priority for Nadal than it is for Federer.
 

Pagoo

G.O.A.T.
I don't think he's secured it. He still trails Nadal and everything depends on his performance going forward. I know he's playing Cincy and the US open. He said him and his team would decide about Montreal today. I'm sure he'll play Basel, he likes Shanghai so he will probably play there too. Of course we don't know how Nadal is going to perform.

I think the US open may be decisive.
 

limmt

Rookie
I think Nadal will be #1 as soon as Canada. He just needs to outperform Murray there (both have 0 points to defend there), and even if he doesn't, Cincinnati will make him #1 (Muzz has 600 points to defend there).

Federer has a really low chance of being #1 before the US, since he's not playing Canada, even if he wins Cincinatti, he would need two bad performances from Nadal (maximum one quaterfinal), and two bad performances from Murray (maximum two quarterfinals).

But then, everytihng will be opened at the US. If one of Fedal wins here, he'll have the #1 spot secured till the end of the year.
 

Dilexson

Hall of Fame
If Fed wins the USO - which I think even this year is a long shot - he'll be #1 regardless of ranking from the ATP. No way a man wins three majors in a year and is not #1.

With three majors people would just laugh at the idea of anyone being better this year.

You are probably right , I was thinking about that reduced schedule Fed has planned and forgot how it'd look 3 vs 1.
This place will be a war zone if that happens by some freak occurrence, lol.
 
D

Deleted member 688153

Guest
I'm not overly bullish (no Nadal pun intended) about Fed's YE#1 chances just yet. We'll see.

I think the crucial thing is that he continues to play a heavily reduced schedule. I believe that is still the right move for him, as his recent success is probably due (at least in part) to him taking lots of time off to rest.

One may think that it will impact his ability to pick up lots of points, however in reality if he played a full schedule he would be more likely to lose early in big events and so he might actually gain more points by only playing 4-5 events rather than a full schedule, if that means he wins the ones he enters.
You gain a lot more points from converting a final than you do from winning a couple of early rounds.

So I think if he wants the #1 ranking, the mistake for him would be to play more events, rather than less. I think less would be more here.
 

opiate

Semi-Pro
I think he's taking a leaf out of Serena's playbook. Concentrate on winning Slams (the ones he can win, anyway). If winning Slams comes with the #1 slot then great, but if not, then... worse things have happened.
Especially when his "weeks on number 1" is safe (For now), it's better to just pad up his slams legacy, especially now he's left the realm of the men and into the land of the Amazons.
 

The_18th_Slam

Hall of Fame
I think Nadal will be #1 as soon as Canada. He just needs to outperform Murray there (both have 0 points to defend there)
Murray leads by 285 points, so Nadal will have to outperform Murray fairly significantly at Canada.

3R: 90 points
QF: 180 points
SF: 360 points
F: 600 points
W: 1000 points

Here are the scenarios for Nadal to overtake Murray after Canada:

1. Nadal will need to make the semifinal and hope Murray doesn't make the 3rd Round
2. Nadal will need to make the final and hope Murray doesn't make the semifinal
3. Nadal will need to win the title

I'd say it's pretty unlikely that Nadal gets the #1 at Canada, assuming Murray plays.
 

icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
My biggest concern, with both of them actually, is inevitable fatigue. At their age and with the mileage they've accrued this season, I wouldn't be surprised if both hit a wall for the rest of the year. YE #1 going to be an interesting race, that's for sure.

yup which is why i have no issues with fed skipping a few tournaments. i think when he meant break, he meant extended break like missing back to back tournaments or w/e. i think if he wants to skip montreal, especially because its literally right before cinci, it makes sense. He is definitely playing cinci as mentioned in his press conference and he might not want to burn out right before the USO by playing montreal and then cinci when there is like no gap in between. and then as others mentioned, i could see him skipping another one post USO. i think a lot of it would depend on how far he goes at the USO.
 

icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
I'm not overly bullish (no Nadal pun intended) about Fed's YE#1 chances just yet. We'll see.

I think the crucial thing is that he continues to play a heavily reduced schedule. I believe that is still the right move for him, as his recent success is probably due (at least in part) to him taking lots of time off to rest.

One may think that it will impact his ability to pick up lots of points, however in reality if he played a full schedule he would be more likely to lose early in big events and so he might actually gain more points by only playing 4-5 events rather than a full schedule, if that means he wins the ones he enters.
You gain a lot more points from converting a final than you do from winning a couple of early rounds.

So I think if he wants the #1 ranking, the mistake for him would be to play more events, rather than less. I think less would be more here.
makes sense if this year has proven anything, is that fed is a scheduling king and has always done what he felt was right for his body, with ofc guidance from his team. a lot of people are wondering whether he will be play montreal, he said himself that he was unsure after wimbledon. i know some people are worried that cinci is not enough to go into USO, but i also worry that he will over extend himself because if he goes into montreal, a tournament i believe he hasnt played since 2014, there is always a chance he does well and plays a lot of matches there. cinci ofc, he will always play and has done well there. there is that risk of a lot of matches played before entering USO which could actually hurt roger.
 

moonballs

Hall of Fame
Fed is going to make a push for USO. But likely calling it a year afterwards. In this scenario can he sits on the no1 briefly if he does well in the masters and USO? That's pretty good in my book.

Nadal is likely to make an all out effort the whole season. He may do well in USO and has the best chance of nabbing an elusive WTF. I think Nadal is more likely to get the year end No 1. He seems healthy and full of energy.
 

big ted

Legend
I think rafas chance of a year end #1 are slim. him and roger are close in points and there's no more clay tournaments.. rafa almost always has an early loss or two in a masters during the second half of the year & that should seal the deal unless rafa can win the usopen
 
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Newcomer

Hall of Fame
I think Federer is a lock to win Cincinnati, he is close to unbeatable in this tournament. And he will be a very very big favorite for USO. So yes, Federer will probably be the first in the race after USO.
 

cknobman

Legend
No Federer has not practically "secured" YE#1.

It is a two horse race between Federer and Nadal.

I'm sure both will be watching each others schedule and results to see how much they need to play in order to get that YE#1.
Both of them want it more than they want people to know.
 

SinjinCooper

Hall of Fame
Indeed.

Seems like people still didn't get the lesson from the past 12 months and try to predict what is going to happen in the next few months based on what happened 2 or 3 years ago.
Seems like others didn't get the lesson, "Federer has won every real tournament he has entered all year, and Nadal is his pigeon now."
 

HolgerNova

New User
I still think that Nadal is the favorite due to the fact that Federer's schedule for the rest of this season will be limited, imo. He is not 25 anymore and he needs more time to recover physically, so I expect him to skip several tournaments, including 1-3 Masters.

Guess who else isn't 25 anymore.
 

Neil_Fedfan

Rookie
Federer isn't a lock for anything, no one is infact especially when another legend (Nadal) is still 550 points ahead in the race and is arguably playing his best tennis since 2013. Federer is usually better in the 2nd half of the season but Nadal may very well have a 2013 like season to seal the deal (unlikely but certainly possible). As things stand now I'll say its 50-50.
 

D.Nalby12

G.O.A.T.
Nadal will finish #1 only if he wins USO. Federer can do otherwise. He usually performs well indoors while Nadal' season usually ends at USO.
 

WhiskeyEE

G.O.A.T.
No only geniuses like you think that Nadal is anywhere close to his 2015-16 level. He is miles better

Actually he was playing just as well at the Olympics and USO last year. Or close. Still lost to Del Potro, Nishikori, and Pouille. He had very easy draws this year. Fed showed how easily a top player should beat Dimitrov.
 

Fedinkum

Legend
I still think that Nadal is the favorite due to the fact that Federer's schedule for the rest of this season will be limited, imo. He is not 25 anymore and he needs more time to recover physically, so I expect him to skip several tournaments, including 1-3 Masters.
Didn't fed said he will be playing all his commitments after ditching the clay season?
 

tacou

G.O.A.T.
2 sounds like a break to me. How many tournaments even are there before/after the USO? Cannot be many.

Edit: 4 right? So 2/4 missed. That seems like a decent break to me.
?? there are 9 events still to play in July alone. Assuming you mean just masters, Fed has skipped Canada 3 of the last 4. I do not see him playing all 4, USO, wtf & basel
 
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