TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
Yes, Federer will be 2017's YE number 1.
With Rafa at 7095 and Fed at 6545 coming out of Wimbledon, it seems practically a sure thing.
In Federer's average full season recently, 2015, he gained 3335 points after Wimbledon(In his worst, 2013, he gained 1210 points after Wimbledon). In Rafa's only/worst full season recently, 2015, he gained 1500 points. (in 2013 he gained an anomalous 5720) According to this, Rafa either needs to pull off a 2013-esque performance to keep Federer from overtaking him in the race, or Federer needs to play really poorly- neither of which is likely to happen. I do think, though, that Rafa will get more than 2000 points after Wimbledon this year, however, Federer needs just 400 more points than Rafa after Wimbledon, and that has happened every year in the past 10 years other than in 2013 and 2010. Chance of Federer beating Rafa after Wimbledon: 80%.
Federer (2013): 7,755
Federer (2015): 9,880
Nadal (2015): 8,595
Nadal (2013): 12,815
Yet, there is another contender. Djokovic has 2585 points coming out of Wimbledon. If we put Federer at 9880 points, then Djokovic would need to gain 7500 points to gain #1. Even in his imperious 2015, Djokovic was "only" able to gain 6400 points after Wimbledon. The ONLY shot Djokovic would have would be for Federer to gain less than 2000 points and for him to gain 6000 points. That would be roughly equivalent to Novak having a 2015-like post-Wimbledon season, and Federer having a roughly 2013-like season. Chance of beating Novak after Wimbledon: 95%.
Federer (2013): 7,755
Federer (2015): 9,880
Djokovic (2015): 9,345
Djokovic (2016 (average)): 6,685
The final contender- Murray. 2290 points after Wimbledon. In 2016, Murray gained a great 4460 points after Wimbledon! If we assume he gets that many after Wimbledon 2017, that brings him up to 6750 points. That means that Nadal would need to get negative points after Wimbledon and Federer would need to get less than 205 points after Wimbledon. No chance. Murray's chances of YE#1 go to 0%.
So the chances of Federer's YE#1 go up to roughly 76%.
With Rafa at 7095 and Fed at 6545 coming out of Wimbledon, it seems practically a sure thing.
In Federer's average full season recently, 2015, he gained 3335 points after Wimbledon(In his worst, 2013, he gained 1210 points after Wimbledon). In Rafa's only/worst full season recently, 2015, he gained 1500 points. (in 2013 he gained an anomalous 5720) According to this, Rafa either needs to pull off a 2013-esque performance to keep Federer from overtaking him in the race, or Federer needs to play really poorly- neither of which is likely to happen. I do think, though, that Rafa will get more than 2000 points after Wimbledon this year, however, Federer needs just 400 more points than Rafa after Wimbledon, and that has happened every year in the past 10 years other than in 2013 and 2010. Chance of Federer beating Rafa after Wimbledon: 80%.
Federer (2013): 7,755
Federer (2015): 9,880
Nadal (2015): 8,595
Nadal (2013): 12,815
Yet, there is another contender. Djokovic has 2585 points coming out of Wimbledon. If we put Federer at 9880 points, then Djokovic would need to gain 7500 points to gain #1. Even in his imperious 2015, Djokovic was "only" able to gain 6400 points after Wimbledon. The ONLY shot Djokovic would have would be for Federer to gain less than 2000 points and for him to gain 6000 points. That would be roughly equivalent to Novak having a 2015-like post-Wimbledon season, and Federer having a roughly 2013-like season. Chance of beating Novak after Wimbledon: 95%.
Federer (2013): 7,755
Federer (2015): 9,880
Djokovic (2015): 9,345
Djokovic (2016 (average)): 6,685
The final contender- Murray. 2290 points after Wimbledon. In 2016, Murray gained a great 4460 points after Wimbledon! If we assume he gets that many after Wimbledon 2017, that brings him up to 6750 points. That means that Nadal would need to get negative points after Wimbledon and Federer would need to get less than 205 points after Wimbledon. No chance. Murray's chances of YE#1 go to 0%.
So the chances of Federer's YE#1 go up to roughly 76%.