Red Rick
Bionic Poster
@paranoidandroid @Federer and Del Potro what about those tags yo?
Age this year in the quarters
- Thread starter Gary Duane
- Start date
Gary Duane
G.O.A.T.
There is more to this. You don't know something is ending until it is over. There was a Romantic drive in music that continued to push things forward, so it did not stop with Beethoven. That drive was alive and well for Debussy and Ravel. I'd argue that the end of this was around the end of Rachmaninov's life, which is why so called classical artists are now reproducing and no longer creating. There was the same kind of drive in jazz later, probably through to at least the 60s. And there has been something going on in pop for a long time. But right now I see nothing at all happening in music, unless you go into something like Hamilton which merged the old idea of musicals with rap.
Even with guys like John Williams, amazing film score composers, I don't see much happening right now with younger guys. There really are golden ages, and then they end.
D
Deleted member 756486
Guest
Federer and Del Potro
Bionic Poster
Can confirm. My last GF was 26, right in the range for PEAK girlfriend attributes.
Current gf is 22. She is quite a MUG. But we are working on that.
@Red Rick @paranoidandroid @Poisoned Slice
Current gf is 22. She is quite a MUG. But we are working on that.
@Red Rick @paranoidandroid @Poisoned Slice
Red Rick
Bionic Poster
Why? Does @Federer and Del Potro rather have us talking about him or other things without him knowing?
WHAT IF HE WANTS TO KNOW WHAT MY FAVORITE PIZZA IS.
Red Rick
Bionic Poster
Federer and Del Potro
Bionic Poster
Federer and Del Potro
Bionic Poster
My girlfriends favorite player:
Alex Zverev
Age 21
There's a direct correlation here.
The mediocrity of the youth stick together like a clump of melted skittles.
zagor
Bionic Poster
I get that viewpoint but I'm still quite skeptical because I can't see a single example of this untapped freakish talent right now among the younger crowd (now I'm sure there are some but they're probably choose another pro sport).
You say Kyrgios has (arguably) the talent necessary to be one of those guys while I don't think he's even in the same ballpark. What is near universal to all ATGs? Great movement, footwork and ROS. How often do guys as tall as Kyrgios even win slams? Very rarely (there's Goran, Safin and Delpo that I can think of and none of them are ATGs). I don't think Kyrgios is as talented as Murray for example, he has a flashy/showboating game (which I find entertaining actually so I'm not biased against him) but he doesn't excel at any tennis fundamentals aside from that great serve which just isn't enough. Murray has a comparable touch/feel for the ball, historically great ROS and amazing movement (especially footspeed and anticipation).
Shapovalov is a better example but even then the guy has a very mediocre ROS, that just won't do for a potential ATG.
Gary Duane
G.O.A.T.
That's about right. I assume, btw, that you are/were a fan of Breaking Bad.
travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
I think players who are in their late 20s and early 30s today are able to extend the period of peak performance longer in part because they have a competitive advantage over the younger guys. In 5 years that advantage won’t exist, so guys will not be as motivated to keep playing into their 30s anymore.
Poly strings appeared on the pro scene around the turn of the century. The players in their early 30s (including nadal and Djokovic) had their formative years in the pre-poly era. The guys aged 27 and younger didn’t. It’s not coincidence where the cutoff in skill level at the top is.
Poly strings appeared on the pro scene around the turn of the century. The players in their early 30s (including nadal and Djokovic) had their formative years in the pre-poly era. The guys aged 27 and younger didn’t. It’s not coincidence where the cutoff in skill level at the top is.
Red Rick
Bionic Poster
Yes, big oneThat's about right. I assume, btw, that you are/were a fan of Breaking Bad.
I might make a thing of changing my profile depending on which TV series I'm binging
tacou
G.O.A.T.
I get your point, I am simply saying it is obvious. You are using the phrase "all time great." Yes, if an all time great player appears, they will start having all time great results.Still not the point i was making
sportmac
Hall of Fame
Well, there's different 30 year old's. Fed and Lopez are 35+ year olds.The 30 year old guys probably used Poly from a fairly young age. When you look around Fed's age the attrition is dramatic. Pretty much down to Feliciano Lopez. Maybe Ferrer liked the stuff, but he's gone now and as a clay courter Poly would have been on the radar in 1997 with Kuerten and others on clay. Your good foundations argument is nonsense since basically you've only got Feliciano and maybe Fed as survivors. Fed is the only top player who survived the move with Roddick barely hanging on. When is the last time we had a top player who was older than Fed.
So it seems we have different timelines we're using to make out argument.
I'd guess almost all roughly 30 year old's would have learned with gut/nylon. They would have been around 10 in 1997, well past their early development years. Luxilon's first poly's didn't appear until a few years before that.
So not sure how much they were on the radar besides some dirtballers (and this was an era of players who specialized in dirt balling) since it wasn't until after Kuerten won that first French that they were even discussed as a part of his success. It's not until 2000's that articles appeared discussing how it was changing the game.
So it's more likely that the next generation (and I'm generally referring to a generation as roughly 5 years apart, based on nothing more than that's what I'm using -
) would have been the first to take to it.So my argument is the continued dominance of now 30+ year old's is because they have a better foundation and those would be not just the 35+ year olds. Djokovic, Murray, Stan, Cilic, Nadal, Anderson's recent surge - all over 30 and all performing better than the previous 2 generations. Still.
Some other interesting articles on it:
http://www.espn.com/sports/tennis/news/story?id=3064206
https://sports.vice.com/en_ca/artic...ow-new-technology-killed-american-mens-tennis
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2011/01/the-new-physics-of-tennis/308339/
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2009/jan/31/rafael-nadal-rackets
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Pheasant
Legend
The sample size for this year's USO quarters is too small, but I get the point. If you look at ATP's top 100 from last year, it is strewn with people that 30+(40% of players in 2017 were 30+ compared to only 6% in 1990). And the biggest reason is the money that separates these folks from the rest. Once you get outside the top 100, the percentage of 30+ year-old players drops dramatically. I.e, the players from ages 101-1000 are no older than they were 30 years ago. The players ranked outside the top 100 don't have money as a massive advantage. So we will see the top players have a longer peak player than generations of the past. And this is one reason why it is impossible to compare players across eras. Who knows how many slams Borg would have won with today's advantages of modern medicine, diet, training, and technology. Maybe a sports psychologist would have helped Borg too, or a better schedule.
Federer and Del Potro
Bionic Poster
The 30 year old guys probably used Poly from a fairly young age. When you look around Fed's age the attrition is dramatic. Pretty much down to Feliciano Lopez. Maybe Ferrer liked the stuff, but he's gone now and as a clay courter Poly would have been on the radar in 1997 with Kuerten and others on clay. Your good foundations argument is nonsense since basically you've only got Feliciano and maybe Fed as survivors. Fed is the only top player who survived the move with Roddick barely hanging on. When is the last time we had a top player who was older than Fed.
What I extrapolate from this: A 37 yr old Thiem will win the next 10 RG
Poisoned Slice
Bionic Poster
Sysyphus
Talk Tennis Guru
Not really true.
Most endurance sports have age peaks closer to 30, corresponding quite well to the current age trends of tennis. It's one of the athletic skills that peaks the latest. Explosiveness peaks earlier.
Little doubt that tennis has become a lot more endurance-intensive on the whole in the modern era. The athletic requirements are greater.
Federer and Del Potro
Bionic Poster
That's why I send you roses. Appreciate the tag.
She looks cute af in that gif. My current gf kind of looks like her
Meles
Bionic Poster
Federer and Del Potro
Bionic Poster
r2473
G.O.A.T.
Yes of course, it didn't stop with Beethoven. That's not what I meant to imply. I didn't want to pedantically go through the history of music up until the current time. My point was to create the basis for my argument.
Well that's the question. Why do they start in the first place? And why do they end? It can't be that the talent pool simply dries up. That just doesn't make any sense. It seems to me that the culture changes. Everyone is a product of their culture to an extent. So talent that comes along into the wrong culture, never fully develops to the extent that it would have in a different culture that would have driven it.
Yes, I shouldn't have mentioned Kyrgios, because his case carries with it so much baggage, the discussion goes in a different direction.
So let's use Shapovalov then. You say he lacks certain skills. What explains that? Just unlucky that he lacks the natural talent of Federer? Federer, Djokovic, and Nadal are just simply freakish talents that the world has never seen and will never see again? Maybe. But ask yourself, if they were born today into the current environment, would the develop into the freakish talents they did? Remember, their genetic advantages (freakish natural talent if you will) is identical. I'd say no. The current culture / environment wouldn't breed the Federer / Nadal / Djokovic we see today.
Poisoned Slice
Bionic Poster
She looks cute af in that gif. My current gf kind of looks like her
Awesome. All the best to your relationship. Sweet harmony.
Federer and Del Potro
Bionic Poster
Meles
Bionic Poster
Poisoned Slice
Bionic Poster
Alex Zverev makes his first semi at 29, denied in 5. Returns the next year and goes all the way.
Mythical Zverev unleashed.
Sysyphus
Talk Tennis Guru
With the hand-eye coordination and fine-motor skills of your average Russian bricklayer
It's obvious to me
. But its obviously not that obvious to some people. What counts is when a certain player peak, not If he is still dominating at 30, 32 og 37. Of course you can still dominate If the field is weak.I sometimes see the same mistake with Usain Bolt. Yes, he won the Olympics in his thirties, but he set his world records at 23/24y. That was his peak (Although, like most men, he didnt like the thought of getting older, and still thought he could beat his own records in his thirties
)
zagor
Bionic Poster
Oh no, I think Kyrgios is a good example. He's a guy who's seen as being held back from massive success by the mental aspect of the game without taking into consideration all the deficiencies in his game, not all of which could be improved with just training/dedication/professionalism (atleast no to the degree to make him an ATG). I'm not completely convinced he's more talented than say Tsonga or Berdych.
It wouldn't breed Fed/Nadal/Novak of today but different (quite possibly diminished) iterations of them that would still IMO shake up the current tennis scene far more than the current young crop of players. Goes without saying that this is speculation and just my own opinion I can't prove.
Furthemore I wouldn't put the big 3 natural talents above greats from previous era (I still think Agassi for example is peerless when it comes to pure ballstriking) but definitely far above those of the last two generations of tennis players.
Red Rick
Bionic Poster
I don't think Thiem lacks fine motor skills. I think his technique is just too big swing based. I think he has the biggest swings I've ever seen. He has a decent slice and a pretty alright transitional and volley game. His movement is very good, but not in the leagues of the big 4, but his physical strength is brutal. Only guy I've seen at his height to serve in the 220s and do it easily. Instead he's stuck hitting ridulous kickers every time.
I wonder how good he'd be if he had more conventional technique. His forehand lacks the short and explosive wrist snap that generates the really easy pace, but I don't know if that's also really dependent on physical make up. It seems that most of these barrel chested players go without that for some reason.
Paul Harman
Semi-Pro
Pmasterfunk
Hall of Fame
I think Benneteau represents well one of the flaws in the argument that the top guys are still around because they're just THAT much better than everyone. There are still quite a few players of his calibre competing reasonably well at an age where they shouldn't be.
Guys like Leonardo Mayer, Seppi, Kohlschreiber, Chardy, Haase, they're still mainstays on the tour when they should have been replaced by now. I can believe a whole generation of players wasn't able to produce an all-time great, but I have a hard time believing they haven't produced anything better than a Courier.
I agree. And as the ATP and ITF's biggest money-maker, they're not going to let go of him that easily.
Gary Duane
G.O.A.T.
That's an argument I did not make that I wish I did.
Also, playing with teams lengthens careers because it cuts down on the loneliness.
Gary Duane
G.O.A.T.
But I did.
That's the crux right there. I agree with your point.
[/quote]
Probably true, though I think someone like De Minaur would develop in the same way given the same level of talent. In his case the limitation is most likely size.
Gary Duane
G.O.A.T.
The question is: How much has that changed in the last 15 years, or over the last 4 or 5 decades? And what in your opinion has changed the balance of power in tennis?
I Am Finnish
Bionic Poster
thiem is looking gorgeous
Sysyphus
Talk Tennis Guru
Well, from the stats I've read, the main trend of increasing age began in 2005, and started first outside of the top 30 and then across the whole board.
I think this coincides nicely with the introduction of polyester and type 3 tennis ball (bigger and slower) and the ensuing advent of modern baseline tennis. And I think those two changes in equipment, and the resultant change in style of play, can explain a fair bit of the aging. There was a paper arguing this in a sports science journal, called "The older they rise the younger they fall: age and performance trends in men’s professional tennis from 1991 to 2012," but I sadly can't seem to find a version of it anymore that's not behind a paywall.
Last Wimbledon, Craig O'Shannessy published a lot of data on serve and volley rates through the years, as perhaps you saw. As most of us would expect, S&V continued to be fairly widespread through around 2002–2003 or so, and since then has virtually disappeared. The game truly has changed and has become more of a baseline war across the whole tour. The style of play may sometimes look like a beep test stretched out across three hours, with opponents running each other side to side at breakneck pace.
So the demands on endurance are just so big these days that you either need to be a fitness machine to succeed or you have to be a very tall guy with a booming serve. Which is another trait we know peaks quite late for whatever reason, and serve dominance has gone up in general in modern tennis, so that may be another part of the picture?
Anyways, I'm not saying this is the whole picture. There could be much more to it. Could also be a lack of talent due to just plain dumb luck or smartphones or whatnot.
donquijote
G.O.A.T.
WTA 1/8
Serena 37
Ka.Pliskova 26
Stephens 25
Sevastova 28
Navarro 30
Keys 23
Osaka 21 (almost)
Tsurenko 29
Serena 37
Ka.Pliskova 26
Stephens 25
Sevastova 28
Navarro 30
Keys 23
Osaka 21 (almost)
Tsurenko 29
Boom-Boom
Legend
PEDs
Thundergod
Hall of Fame
I'm still going with that they aren't good enough. Like everyone has been saying before, modern medicine is only extending/slowing down the decline careers, but not raising their peak/prime level. Some exceptions are usually big hitters/servers.
I will excuse the early losses vs. Big 4 and guys like Cilic/Delpo, though you could argue some of them should be ranked higher so they can avoid them early. However, there's still too many losses the young guys have against the mid-low tier older guys who, while having extended careers, are still 75%-85% of their best level(just throwing a %out there).
I will excuse the early losses vs. Big 4 and guys like Cilic/Delpo, though you could argue some of them should be ranked higher so they can avoid them early. However, there's still too many losses the young guys have against the mid-low tier older guys who, while having extended careers, are still 75%-85% of their best level(just throwing a %out there).
Drob
Hall of Fame
Gary Duane: do you mean to imply something by "medicine"? This is not a bait. You are thoughtful. I am sincerely interested if you have acquired reason to suppose rules are being broken. If i misunderstood you, fine. It is a delicate, indeed, ignoble notion.
Drob
Hall of Fame
Maybe . . .something rather unusual is going on.
1970-71
Laver 31-33
Newcombe 26-27
Rosewall 37-38
Roche 25-26
Nasaste 24-25
Okker 26-28
Kodes 25-26
Ashe 27-28
Smith 24-26
These players were Bud Collins' personal picks for Boston Globe as one of top six in at least one of those two seasons. Not here to split hairs w Bud. It is a very workable list of top players.
For sake of argument I will add:
Gonzalez 42-43: sentimentality? In 1970, won $50 Grand Howard Hughes Inv., 2nd highest prize $ after TCC, beating Laver. In 1971 won PSW, at that time still an M1000 equivalent. Did not make Bud's top-10 either year, but for sake of argument . . .
Gimeno 33-34. That's just the way I roll. It helps your argument anyway. I am giving you the benefit of the doubt.
Now, off the top of my head,these two years are about as close as i can come to the 2017-18 problematic. The average age is still much younger.
Can we find anything closer? Upon further thinking, maybe the superb Professional years,1959-60.
Gonzalez 31-32
Sedgman 31-33
Rosewall 24-26
Hoad 24-26
Segura 38-39
Trabert 28-29
Anderson 24-25
Cooper 22-23
Olmedo (1960) 24
I think these two pro years are as close as you will find in tennis history, in terms of an analogy to the present situation. But even here you have pro major champs of ages 24 (Doomsday), 25 (Hoad), 24 (Anderson) and 29 (Trabert).
So, what is happening now,today,is passing strange. Is it explicable?
mike danny
Bionic Poster
Except the Big 3 have little to do with the failures of young players.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
How do you explain the rise of Isner and Anderson then?
mike danny
Bionic Poster
How do you feel about its spin-off, Better Call Saul?
Red Rick
Bionic Poster
Tried to get into it twice, but not really feeling it. Also didn't like BB as much on the 3rd rewatch as during the first two times.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
I enjoy BCS, even though its pacing is a bit slow. You basically get to see the making ot the BB universe.
Also, I consider BB the standard by which all shows should be created.
Enceladus
Legend
Thiem would be able to win GS titles in the 1990s decade. Even now he would have been a two-time RG champion, not to be resurected Nadal. He has the most chances to win the GS title from all current young players, but Bull is blocking him.
At Pete I see one huge advantage, which Milos is missing - excellent mental strength.
S'in-net
Semi-Pro
Same unusual thing happening in snooker, which doesn't have the physical aspect
Hendry won the all time record 18 majors, within a ten year span from 1989 - 1999, by the age of 30
Now you have 0' Sullivan equalling Hendry's record of 18 majors, over twenty four years and counting, from 1993 - 2017, by the age of 41
Then you have Williams winning the World title this year at the age of 42...
O' Sullivan has even surpassed Joe Davis' longevity records from the 1920's....
...Just as you have the big three in tennis showing the same longevity as Max Decugis from the 1920's, who totalled 12 finals at the French open
I think it's cyclic...The late sixties in particular, was absolutely about the teen and younger generation overcoming the older generation, now the 'zeitgeist' is swung to the other side of the pendulum. The sportsmen pattern this
The 'zeitgeist', is not a natural outcropping of the 'spirit' of humanity. A large part of it is manufactured from the apex of the pyramid and then disseminated via the media, who make it look like a 'natural' outcropping
It's also like that in the challengers...Robredo won a challenger this year, and in his last 3 challengers was Q/Sf/Sf, at the age of 36
Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo was still playing challengers and winning matches last year at the age of 39
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