If Thiem was born in 1983 instead of 1993, how would his career have changed?

clout

clout

Hall of Fame
As mentioned in other threads, no one on tour has a bigger advantage than Thiem does right now. However, had he been born 10 years earlier, how would his career have turned out instead? His breakthrough season in real life was 2016 which would've been 2006 in this hypothetical. In this scenario, he would currently be 27 years old but in 2010 instead of 2020.

The field would've been a lot different had he been born a decade earlier as his prime competitors would've obviously been Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray, along with Del Potro and later Wawrinka, along with other top 10 staples like Berdych, Tsonga, Ferrer, Cilic, Roddick, Davydenko, and for a little while, Soderling.

Would he still have put up the same numbers? What would his ranking be and would he still have such a good H2H record against the big 3? Some notable performances from Thiem irl would've been equivalent to:

- 2006-2009 RG
- 2008 USO
- 2010 AO and USO
- 2009 IW
- 2009 and 2010 WTF
- 2007-2009 Madrid
- 2007 Rome
- 2008 MC
- 2008 Bercy
- In this scenario, he also would've gotten to play in the '08 Beijing Olympics (Thiem has yet to play in an OLY in his actual career)
 
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Third Serve

Third Serve

Talk Tennis Guru
Couple of deep Slam runs, but not as many as he has now. And certainly 0 Slams.

Could see him winning a Masters (a different one from IW, though; thinking Rome 2008 or something like that)

I believe he'd still rack up some wins against the Big 3, but nothing like 15-18.

But let's ignore all of that. CYGS 2006, 2007, 2008, etc. etc.
 
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ChrisRF

Legend
I don’t see what should have been different until now. He would have also met the Big 3, just like now (and don't forget Murray as well). He likely would have needed Corona 10 years earlier to win a Slam as well. The only difference now is that he should have a few years after the Big 3 are gone, and then he can add to his numbers.
 
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Deleted member 771911

Guest
He couldn't win slams when Big 3 had broken hands and were losing their minds so I am not what he could have done when they were actually earning their big 3 status.
 
clout

clout

Hall of Fame
Looking back at the scenarios.

2006-2008 RG: not a chance (16-18 Thiem irl)
2009 RG: his best shot a major (2019 Thiem irl)
2010 AO: he might have a shot at Fed although he'd be the underdog for sure (2020 Thiem irl)
2010 USO: not beating Rafa here (2020 Thiem irl)
2008 USO: same result where he'll lose to one of the big 4 in the quarters (2018 Thiem irl)
2009 IW: he's also likely not beating Rafa here (2019 Thiem irl)
2009 WTF: he might have a shot as the big 4 all slumped in that event (2019 Thiem irl)
2010 WTF: he's not beating Federer or Nadal here (2020 Thiem irl)
2007 Hamburg: he might beat Rafa but not Fed (2017 Thiem irl)
2008 Hamburg: not beating any of the big 3 here as they were all in-form at this one (2018 Thiem irl)
2009 Madrid: If he gets a drained Nadal or Fed in the finals he might have a shot (2019 Thiem irl)
2007 Rome: not beating Rafa here (2017 Thiem irl)
2008 MC: ditto 07 Rome (2018 Thiem irl)
2008 Bercy: his best chance at a Masters although 08 Tsonga was deadly (2018 Thiem irl)
2008 Olympics: you'd have to guess 2018 Thiem is not beating Rafa or Djokovic in Beijing

His best shots at a slam would be 09 RG or 10 AO; his best shots at a Masters are 08 Bercy or 09 Madrid; his best shot at a WTF would be 09; his only shot at the Olympics would be 08 where he likely wouldn't have won
 
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Im(moral) Winner

Im(moral) Winner

G.O.A.T.
ksLOUla.gif
 
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Deleted member 770948

Guest
Nadal would have been very hard to beat at 2009 Roland Garros.
Nadal had won Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Rome, made the Final of Madrid and then won 9 sets in a row at Roland Garros before losing to Soderling....
 
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clout

Hall of Fame
NADALalot said:
Nadal would have been very hard to beat at 2009 Roland Garros.
Nadal had won Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Rome, made the Final of Madrid and then won 9 sets in a row at Roland Garros before losing to Soderling....
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Well assuming the loss to Soderling still happens, '19 Thiem likely would've drew '09 Fed in the finals
 
mike danny

mike danny

Bionic Poster
clout said:
Looking back at the scenarios.

2006-2008 RG: not a chance (16-18 Thiem irl)
2009 RG: his best shot a major (2019 Thiem irl)
2010 AO: he might have a shot at Fed although he'd be the underdog for sure (2020 Thiem irl)
2010 USO: not beating Rafa here (2020 Thiem irl)
2009 IW: he's also likely not beating Rafa here (2019 Thiem irl)
2009 WTF: he might have a shot as the big 4 all slumped in that event (2019 Thiem irl)
2010 WTF: he's not beating Federer or Nadal here (2020 Thiem irl)
2007 Hamburg: he might beat Rafa but not Fed (2017 Thiem irl)
2008 Hamburg: not beating any of the big 3 here as they were all in-form at this one (2018 Thiem irl)
2009 Madrid: If he gets a drained Nadal or Fed in the finals he might have a shot (2019 Thiem irl)
2007 Rome: not beating Rafa here (2017 Thiem irl)
2008 MC: ditto 07 Rome (2018 Thiem irl)
2008 Bercy: his best chance at a Masters although 08 Tsonga was deadly (2018 Thiem irl)
2008 Olympics: you'd have to guess 2018 Thiem is not beating Rafa or Djokovic in Beijing

His best shots at a slam would be 09 RG or 10 AO; his best shots at a Masters are 08 Bercy or 09 Madrid; his best shot at a WTF would be 09; his only shot at the Olympics would be 08 where he likely wouldn't have won
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If he couldn't even beat sub par Oldovic, he is not beating 2010 AO Fed, who was actually quite good. And is he even guaranteed to beat Murray?

Also, no version of Thiem is getting past 2009 Fed in the final of RG.
 
Krish872007

Krish872007

Talk Tennis Guru
clout said:
Well assuming the loss to Soderling still happens, '19 Thiem likely would've drew '09 Fed in the finals
Click to expand...

Thiem's only real route there would be to land in Fed's half, eliminate him before the finals and also hope the rest of the tournament plays out the way it actually did (i.e. Soderling upsetting Nadal). RF played a really good final, doubt Thiem would deliver under that kind of pressure from the other half of the draw
 
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clout

Hall of Fame
mike danny said:
If he couldn't even beat off form Oldovic, he is not beating 2010 AO Fed, who was actually quite good. And is he even guaranteed to beat Murray?

Also, no version of Thiem is getting past 2009 Fed in the final of RG.
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Oh he'd be the heavy underdog for sure and it's very likely he isn't winning, but he'd still have a better "shot" there than say against Rafa at RG in 06-08 or at the USO in 2010.

2010 AO is very likely not in the books for Thiem so I think 09 RG would be his only realistic chance in this scenario. Well 2018 Thiem played well at the USO but he's definitely not good enough to beat any of the big 4 there
 
mike danny

mike danny

Bionic Poster
clout said:
Oh he'd be the heavy underdog for sure and it's very likely he isn't winning, but he'd still have a better shot there than say against Rafa at RG in 06-08 or at the USO in 2010.
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Don't see it. 2010 AO Fed was still prime Fed. There's also Murray in his path too.

As for RG, come on, it's Thiem in a big final. Would you really pick him against prime Fed?
 
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clout

Hall of Fame
mike danny said:
Don't see it. 2010 AO Fed was still prime Fed. There's also Murray in his path too.

As for RG, come on, it's Thiem in a big final. Would you really pick him against prime Fed?
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Yeah actually the more I think about it I can't see it happening either lol. If I had to pick one slam where he might have a chance, it would probably be 09 RG although he would still be the underdog there despite the match being on clay
 
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Deleted member 21996

Guest
JaoSousa said:
Except Federer's parents. Who, by the way, worked at a pharmaceutical company.
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i heard Nadal's parents have a Insurance company... a business know for the frauds... your point is?
 
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Hall of Fame
Third Serve said:
Roddick pretty clearly.

Slams: 1-1
Weeks at #1: 13-0
Extra Slam finals: 4-3
YEC: 0-0 (but Thiem has performed better)
Masters: 5-1

In general, I rate his wins higher as well.
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As of now Roddick is more successful but Thiem should comfortably pass A-Rod pretty soon I'd have to imagine
 
aldeayeah

aldeayeah

G.O.A.T.
He would be a top 10 staple but would have a real hard time breaking through peak/prime Fedal first, and Djokorray later.

He'd be in a similar situation to Ferrer or Berdych.
 
junior74

junior74

Talk Tennis Guru
As mentioned in other threads, no one on tour has a bigger advantage than Djokovic does right now.
 
skaj

skaj

Legend
He would be one of many decent, but not great players from that generation(and lose regularly to prime Federer and Nadal).

My estimation: a few masters, a couple of Roland Garros finals, top 5 ranking.
 
tennis_pro

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
Worse results obviously with the big 3 in their primes but I feel that people are selling him a bit short. The guy is mentally very strong.
 
ibbi

ibbi

G.O.A.T.
He'd probably be like Tsonga. Cult fave, lot of fun to watch, weak between the ears, and can never make that definitive step up to the next level.

To be honest looking how he gets out performed mentally by younger and/or less experienced guys on big stages that may be too much credit and he might be closer to a Verdasco?:unsure:
 
aldeayeah

aldeayeah

G.O.A.T.
tennis_pro said:
Worse results obviously with the big 3 in their primes but I feel that people are selling him a bit short. The guy is mentally very strong.
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I mean, he could be "best of the rest", but I wouldn't favor him against prime big 3+Murray, and those four tyrannized the tour in the era in which we're hypothetically placing Domi.
 
Pheasant

Pheasant

Legend
mike danny said:
As proven by his 2-7 record in big finals.
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This sums it up perfectly. To put it nicely, Thiem has been subpar in finals. This would be magnified 10-fold against much better versions of Fed and better versions of Nadal and Djokovic.

The 2020 USO could have been a straight set blowout as well if Zverev didn’t choke like crazy. That USO, after Djoker was suspended, was the weakest field imaginable.

I could see 6-7 slam finals with 0 wins. 5 -6 is those finals would be straight set blowouts.
 
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