Wawrinka

slicefox · Mar 31, 2009

This guy is more talented than Nadal. Look at the end-match stats, he basically beat himself.

The only reason Nadal won (barely), is because of Wawrinka's errors. Other than that he owned the match. More winners, more aces, more net-points.

If Rinka works on his consistency I can see him ousting Nadal no problem. Rafa's baseline game can't last too long, he will either have to change his game, or pack his bags and hit the highway.

icedevil0289 · Mar 31, 2009

Stats?
10 char

skip1969 · Mar 31, 2009

might be a bit too early to put this up in this section (without a spoiler warning). that, and the fact that there's a thread praising stan up in match results (directly related to the match he just played with nadal).

some posters get a little worked up over stuff like this, just so you know.

swedechris · Mar 31, 2009

yes please.. some stats. he like many others ( tsonga,berdych, gasquet etc)have better shots but not at the times it counts .

slicefox · Mar 31, 2009

Ok I didn't memorize the stats, but he had like 41 unforced errors, rest of the stats were all favoring stan. More winners, more aces, more volleys, etc.

MichaelNadal · Mar 31, 2009

slicefox said:
Ok I didn't memorize the stats, but he had like 41 unforced errors, rest of the stats were all favoring stan. More winners, more aces, more volleys, etc.

Aww why so bitter? If Nadal lowered his focus and or determination THEN Stan might have won. He didn't go away and most of those unforced errors came after a SICK shot from Rafa.

skip1969 · Mar 31, 2009

well, to say that stan is more "talented" than nadal is purely subjective, so never mind that. as far as stats, out-acing nadal (7 to 0) is hardly a big deal. nor is winning more points at net, since nadal is barely up there. i'm not sure what the final winners tally was, but yeah, he had a few more than rafa. he also had a bunch more errors, so the +/- is in rafa's favor.

don't get me wrong, stan played well. not his best, i don't think. but rafa wasn't at his best, either. stans errors were on the forehand, and he had a ton in the first set and sort of settled down a bit in the second. he served at 56%, which was pretty lousy, though he came up with some key serves, for sure. he saved 11 of 12 break points, which is pretty startling against nadal. but i wouldn't say he "owned" the match, not by a long shot.

nadal doesn't win matches by winning the aces/winners/net points categories. he wins by doing exactly what he did tonight, which is outlasting you, out-gutsying you. in that category, he rules. and that's why he's no 1. he's not about stats, he's about heart.

skip1969 · Mar 31, 2009

winners: nadal 22, stan 27
errors: nadal 28, stan 41
net points: nadal 13/17, stan 18/26
break points: nadal 1/12, stan 1/5

kimbahpnam · Mar 31, 2009

I saw the stats at the end of the match, but I didn't think to screen shot it......what I remember is

Nadal: 0 aces
Nadal: 0 or 2 DFs (can't remember exactly)

Wawrinka had a few aces and a few DFs

Shaolin · Mar 31, 2009

wrong section

saram · Mar 31, 2009

You will be blasted for a spoiler..

But a damn close match and although I cannot remember the stats off hand--he really did beat himself tonight.

Nadal_Freak · Mar 31, 2009

One great match and he is more talented than Nadal? Ridiculous the amount of knee jerking reactions to one match but I guess that is normal around here. You are only as good as your last match.

Bottle Rocket · Mar 31, 2009

slicefox said:
The only reason Nadal won (barely), is because of Wawrinka's errors. Other than that he owned the match. More winners, more aces, more net-points.

Anyone notice that Nadal wins a ridiculous amount of matches against opponents that are "better" and more "talented"?

Too bad that doesn't take any talent.

FD3S · Mar 31, 2009

This match was very Blake-esque.

Nadal_Freak · Mar 31, 2009

FD3S said:
This match was very Blake-esque.

Like Blake could handle those long ralleys. Blake would've been exhausted after an hour of that style against Nadal. Wawrinka is a beast.

EtePras · Mar 31, 2009

Nadal is more talented than any player in the world except for possibly Federer.

ESP#1 · Mar 31, 2009

Wawrinka is talented for sure but its a bit of a stretch to say he's more talented than Nadal, I liked the fact that he played more aggressive tonight than I've seen him play in the past, this explains the high number of unforced errors, he knew he had to play big to have a chance. Very entertaining match to say the least

FD3S · Mar 31, 2009

Nadal_Freak said:
Like Blake could handle those long ralleys. Blake would've been exhausted after an hour of that style against Nadal. Wawrinka is a beast.

I dunno - 2009 Blake, yeah. But watching Wawrinka reminded me of Blake's 2006 run in the top ten; hard flat strokes, backed up with great wheels. Inconsistency's a common thread, though.

Nadal_Freak · Mar 31, 2009

FD3S said:
I dunno - 2009 Blake, yeah. But watching Wawrinka reminded me of Blake's 2006 run in the top ten; hard flat strokes, backed up with great wheels. Inconsistency's a common thread, though.

Wawrinka is best on clay. He likes the ball up high and can also put some major spin on the ball as well as hitting flat like Blake. Aggressive clay courters seem to have the most success against Nadal because they also have the endurance. Clay requires great endurance.

ESP#1 · Mar 31, 2009

It should also be said that Nadal hasn't been at his best this week, maybe its the fast hard courts or something, but it must be said he isn't playing his best tennis, funny how he's still so clutch on big points

BreakPoint · Mar 31, 2009

Wawrinka had the right strategy serving and volleying on match point and forced an easy floating return from Nadal but Wawrinka made the mistake of hitting his first volley right back to Nadal instead of the wide open court. Had he hit that volley into the open court for a winner, he may have eventually won the match. He certainly had plenty of opportunities throughout the match to win it.

TennisandMusic · Mar 31, 2009

BreakPoint said:
Wawrinka had the right strategy serving and volleying on match point and forced an easy floating return from Nadal but Wawrinka made the mistake of hitting his first volley right back to Nadal instead of the wide open court. Had he hit that volley into the open court for a winner, he may have eventually won the match. He certainly had plenty of opportunities throughout the match to win it.

Wow really? So because he admittedly plays a bad point on one of the match points and loses, he could have won had he not done that? That is QUITE a jump to make. Nadal would have served for the match on the next point and who knows where it goes from there. You think Nadal just goes away in the third set? That really is some statement...if Wawrinka saves that particular match point he may have gone on to win the match! I mean it's not over until it's over but come on...

Also the only reason it was that tight was because Nadal squandered many many chances to put him away earlier. 1/12 on break points.

Ronny · Mar 31, 2009

he hit lots of winners and unforced errors...that means he was playing risky perhaps? and by doing that he lost the match as he missed too many because he couldnt keep up with nadal on baseline and tried to crank everything

BreakPoint · Mar 31, 2009

TennisandMusic said:
Wow really? So because he admittedly plays a bad point on one of the match points and loses, he could have won had he not done that? That is QUITE a jump to make. Nadal would have served for the match on the next point and who knows where it goes from there. You think Nadal just goes away in the third set? That really is some statement...if Wawrinka saves that particular match point he may have gone on to win the match! I mean it's not over until it's over but come on...

Also the only reason it was that tight was because Nadal squandered many many chances to put him away earlier. 1/12 on break points.

And who was the one that was ahead and was so close to being up a double break in the 2nd set?

TennisandMusic · Mar 31, 2009

BreakPoint said:
And who was the one that was ahead and was so close to being up a double break in the 2nd set?

Who was never a double break up though? Who had match points earlier? Nadal was never behind in the grand scheme of things, even though he was down for a bit in the second set.

It doesn't matter, the point is your statement about maybe winning the match if he wins THAT particular match point is silly. Completely unfounded speculation. Wawrinka was outplayed on a night where Nadal wasn't even playing anything near his best tennis and Wawrinka was hustling.

BreakPoint · Mar 31, 2009

TennisandMusic said:
Who was never a double break up though? Who had match points earlier? Nadal was never behind in the grand scheme of things, even though he was down for a bit in the second set.

It doesn't matter, the point is your statement about maybe winning the match if he wins THAT particular match point is silly. Completely unfounded speculation. Wawrinka was outplayed on a night where Nadal wasn't even playing anything near his best tennis and Wawrinka was hustling.

The stats say otherwise.

The-Champ · Apr 1, 2009

slicefox said:
This guy is more talented than Nadal. Look at the end-match stats, he basically beat himself.

The only reason Nadal won (barely), is because of Wawrinka's errors. Other than that he owned the match. More winners, more aces, more net-points.

If Rinka works on his consistency I can see him ousting Nadal no problem. Rafa's baseline game can't last too long, he will either have to change his game, or pack his bags and hit the highway.

This is the 4th time they play each other, and still Wawrinka couldn't get a set. At the AO in 2007, Rafa totally smoked him.

edmondsm · Apr 1, 2009

Nadal_Freak said:
Like Blake could handle those long ralleys. Blake would've been exhausted after an hour of that style against Nadal. Wawrinka is a beast.

Which is exactly why Blake would have ended those rallies with a winner or an error, either way they would have ended. But that's neither here nor there. Wawrinka didn't beat himself. Nadal draws errors out of his opponents and has for a long time.

edmondsm · Apr 1, 2009

BreakPoint said:
The stats say otherwise.

The stats don't make the match. Try actually watching........

rubberduckies · Apr 1, 2009

Wawrinka was extremely clutch in this match to save 11/12 breakpoints he faced, and Nadal was extremely not clutch to give up all those breakpoints. This match was very much like the Simon Madrid match where Nadal was pretty much in control but couldn't quite convert when he had the chance. It was a good effort by Wawrinka. He'll probably never come any closer to beating Nadal. Rafa had some amazing points in that match but had a lot of trouble returning and sent too many backhands into the net.

tahiti · Apr 1, 2009

Every player tries to beat Rafa with flat out winners on every shot because it's the only way to keep the points short. Thing is Rafa gets back many winners. I didn't see the match but I know Wawrinka is a great player. When I first saw him, I thought here was a good successor for Fed. He has plenty of talent.

But Rafa did well to save all those break points. Again mental nerve and fantastic defence must has saved the day. Also pure talent.

BreakPoint · Apr 1, 2009

edmondsm said:
The stats don't make the match. Try actually watching........

I did watch the match or else how would I know what Wawrinka did on match point? And I still don't agree that Wawrinka was "outplayed".

Safinator_1 · Apr 1, 2009

edmondsm said:
The stats don't make the match. Try actually watching........

BP doesn't know what his talking about its a waste of time

Safinator_1 · Apr 1, 2009

BreakPoint said:
I did watch the match or else how would I know what Wawrinka did on match point? And I still don't agree that Wawrinka was "outplayed".

BP there are no if's in a match when its all said and done thats it.

Ronny · Apr 1, 2009

^^^ great post...puts the fedfans to rest about the ao final and more

Gen · Apr 1, 2009

Stats do not win matches, Nadal does. "Talented" Wawrinka played one good match and he is better than Nadal? Are you kidding? BTW does OP know Wawrinka's career record? He is older than Nadal and he won only one (1) tournament (Umag). What has this super-talent been doing all these years?

Deleted member 3771 · Apr 1, 2009

The score is a better reflection of talent.

slicefox said:
This guy is more talented than Nadal. Look at the end-match stats, he basically beat himself.

The only reason Nadal won (barely), is because of Wawrinka's errors. Other than that he owned the match. More winners, more aces, more net-points.

If Rinka works on his consistency I can see him ousting Nadal no problem. Rafa's baseline game can't last too long, he will either have to change his game, or pack his bags and hit the highway.

charliefedererer · Apr 1, 2009

tahiti said:
Every player tries to beat Rafa with flat out winners on every shot because it's the only way to keep the points short. Thing is Rafa gets back many winners. I didn't see the match but I know Wawrinka is a great player. When I first saw him, I thought here was a good successor for Fed. He has plenty of talent.

But Rafa did well to save all those break points. Again mental nerve and fantastic defence must has saved the day. Also pure talent.

No one thinks that they can simply outrally Rafa. Everyone knows that they have to go for the winner to end the point before Nadal wins it. Then, even on a shot that seems like a sure winner, Rafa retrieves it and gets it back with pace and depth. Very often two or three "winners" in a row have to be hit to take the point from Nadal. Of course just like in Vegas where the house can occasionally lose to one gambler, at the end of the day the odds favor the house, and "the house always wins".
Yet, there is no better strategy than to play like Warinka did last night. He really played well. You just have to tip your cap to Nadal.

Josherer · Apr 1, 2009

slicefox said:
This guy is more talented than Nadal. Look at the end-match stats, he basically beat himself.

The only reason Nadal won (barely), is because of Wawrinka's errors. Other than that he owned the match. More winners, more aces, more net-points.

If Rinka works on his consistency I can see him ousting Nadal no problem. Rafa's baseline game can't last too long, he will either have to change his game, or pack his bags and hit the highway.

Lol @ you.

No shiiit!

That's what happens in tennis. People make errors and loose the match.

Wawrinka's not that good. He played out of his skin against Nadal and he'd be lucky to play like that again.

Too say he is more talented than Nadal is absolute Rubbish!

Your a joke.

bad_call · Apr 1, 2009

Wawrinka played great but committed a bit too many errors. Nadal digs deep when he sees an opening, momentum change, etc...and finds results. Never sell Rafa short.

looking forward to more great stuff from Stan the Man.

Banger · Apr 1, 2009

Josherer said:
Lol @ you.

No shiiit!

That's what happens in tennis. People make errors and loose the match.

Wawrinka's not that good. He played out of his skin against Nadal and he'd be lucky to play like that again.

Too say he is more talented than Nadal is absolute Rubbish!

Your a joke.

I agree with you that saying Stan is more talented is crazy but on the other hand its also rubbish that you say Stan is not that good and he would be lucky to play like that again. You must not have ever watched him play before then to make a comment like that and you dont make it into the top ten if you are not that good. With a little more consistency he will get back and remain in the top ten. Nadal is talented but i feel the only thing that separates him from the rest of the field is consistency and heart.

deltox · Apr 1, 2009

all you can really take from this match was this:

on any given day any can excel and compete with the top players in the world. consistancy and errors made the difference in the match.

another fact that can be taken from this match is to all those who doubt a 1h backhand, better watch wawrinka

TennisWooh · Apr 1, 2009

I watched the match and remembered thinking that Stan had the perfect mentality for the match. He had no fear and was willing to play gritty points to beat Nadal. I wish Federer would come on court with that mentality.

Although the match was close there wasn't a point where I thought he could pull it off. I don't see him having the shots. Put Federer's shots with Stan's mental aspects together and I think that would have tipped the balance.

deltox · Apr 1, 2009

TennisWooh said:
I watched the match and remembered thinking that Stan had the perfect mentality for the match. He had no fear and was willing to play gritty points to beat Nadal. I wish Federer would come on court with that mentality.

Although the match was close there wasn't a point where I thought he could pull it off. I don't see him having the shots. Put Federer's shots with Stan's mental aspects together and I think that would have tipped the balance.

he gave a little hope near the end of the first set. otherwise, it was just outside his grasp the whole match. but nonetheless, for someone noone gave a chance, he HAD his chances.

JediMindTrick · Apr 1, 2009

Wawrinka understood early in the match that he cannot rally with Nadal, so he threw any caution to the wind and bludgeoned the ball at every opportunity. That's why he had so many winners and much more UE. This doesn't mean that if he made fewer errors he would have won, because to make fewer errors he would have had to tone it down a little in which case Nadal would have outrallied him. In any case the match was close only because Wawrinka served out of his mind and Nadal sprayed a bit more than usual.

Moose Malloy · Apr 1, 2009

winners: nadal 22, stan 27
errors: nadal 28, stan 41
net points: nadal 13/17, stan 18/26
break points: nadal 1/12, stan 1/5

It's a shame 'forced errors' aren't included in post match stats, that's often the most important stat(& its easy to figure out)

Nadal won 97 points, Wawrinka 89.

Using those numbers, by my calculations, both players induced 34 forced errors from their opponent(Nadal often does higher in this stat than one would think, its a bit misleading for some to say he wins all his matches by just playing defensively. if that was the case he wouldn't get so many forced errors as well as unforced from his opponents. Forced errors are as important as winners in judging how agressive a player is, and even though he hit 5 less winners than Wawrinka he was equal to him in the forced errors category.)

veroniquem · Apr 1, 2009

JediMindTrick said:
Wawrinka understood early in the match that he cannot rally with Nadal, so he threw any caution to the wind and bludgeoned the ball at every opportunity. That's why he had so many winners and much more UE. This doesn't mean that if he made fewer errors he would have won, because to make fewer errors he would have had to tone it down a little in which case Nadal would have outrallied him. In any case the match was close only because Wawrinka served out of his mind and Nadal sprayed a bit more than usual.

Excellent analysis.

cknobman · Apr 1, 2009

TennisandMusic said:
Who was never a double break up though? Who had match points earlier? Nadal was never behind in the grand scheme of things, even though he was down for a bit in the second set.

It doesn't matter, the point is your statement about maybe winning the match if he wins THAT particular match point is silly. Completely unfounded speculation. Wawrinka was outplayed on a night where Nadal wasn't even playing anything near his best tennis and Wawrinka was hustling.

If you watched the match you would not have said that. True for a game or two he was off but the last 6 games of the second set Nadal was playing his best tennis. Many of those points were just jaw dropping shots by both guys.

Nadal_Freak · Apr 1, 2009

cknobman said:
If you watched the match you would not have said that. True for a game or two he was off but the last 6 games of the second set Nadal was playing his best tennis. Many of those points were just jaw dropping shots by both guys.

Did you get to see the finals of Indian Wells? Nadal is capable of way better tennis.

Benhur · Apr 1, 2009

winners: nadal 22, stan 27
errors: nadal 28, stan 41
net points: nadal 13/17, stan 18/26
break points: nadal 1/12, stan 1/5

Moose Malloy said:
It's a shame 'forced errors' aren't included in post match stats, that's often the most important stat(& its easy to figure out)

Nadal won 97 points, Wawrinka 89.

Using those numbers, by my calculations, both players induced 34 forced errors from their opponent(Nadal often does higher in this stat than one would think, its a bit misleading for some to say he wins all his matches by just playing defensively. if that was the case he wouldn't get so many forced errors as well as unforced from his opponents. Forced errors are as important as winners in judging how agressive a player is, and even though he hit 5 less winners than Wawrinka he was equal to him in the forced errors category.)

I agree it's an important figure and easy to calculate (add the winners by a player to the errors by his oponent. Substract the result from the total points won by the player, and you have the total number of forced errors he induced on his opponent.)

But of course there is always the problem that judging an error as forced or unforced is almost always a subjective judgment and varies wildly depending on who does the counting.

There is also the issue of how the player is trying to play. There is a big difference between going for a big shot and missing by inches, or merely trying to hit the ball back safely, not doing anything special, and still missing. The unforced error count by Nadal's opponents tends to be high in part because most of them figure (correctly) that the only plausible chance they have of winning is to play very aggressively, hope they have a good day, and pull the trigger sooner rather than later, as Stan did last night. Maybe there should be an intermediate category for errors that were not strictly forced by the opponent, but were "forced" in the sense that they occurred when the player was simply trying to execute a trigger-pulling strategy that he knows to be very risky to begin with, but still less risky than just playing within himself.

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