2010 yr end ratings...same "adjustments"??
- Thread starter vizsla
- Start date
Xisbum
Semi-Pro
I was told there would not be near as many bump ups in the 3.0-4.0 ranges this year since so many were caught last year. I did hear they were going to weed out the 4.5's after this year since they did not seem to be hit last year. Right now you have guys that were competitive 4.0's in my area that were bumped to 4.5 and are now playing club pros and good former college players just out of school. The idea is to bump those college guys and club pros to 5.0 and create a fair 4.5 division. Keep in mind, this is all rumor I have heard.
dizzlmcwizzl
Hall of Fame
At least in our area the result of the big bump up were:
In the 3.5, 4.0 and 4.5 divisions each league had a difinitive top tier and a bottom tier. Those teams comprised mostly of new players populated the bottom tier and had almost no wins against the established teams. Additionally, the total number of teams were about the same with a couple less 3.5 teams and a couple more 4.5 teams. However, our 4.5 division is still smaller than I would expect in this area with only 5 teams.
So based on this information alone I could see the USTA doing anything:
1) Another big bump up which would essentially serve the purpose of moving most players up a 1/2 level by the time this two year process is done. Where a 2009 3.5 team is roughly the same as a 2011 4.0 team.
2) Just let the situation simmer for a while and let players catch up so the gap between the haves and have-nots diminishes.
or 3) look at how non-competitive the players at the new level were on average and slowly slide players back.
To me (2) makes the most sense, so no way the USTA does this. The USTA will never admit a mistake so option 3 is out. I would not be surprised if option 1 happens.
In the 3.5, 4.0 and 4.5 divisions each league had a difinitive top tier and a bottom tier. Those teams comprised mostly of new players populated the bottom tier and had almost no wins against the established teams. Additionally, the total number of teams were about the same with a couple less 3.5 teams and a couple more 4.5 teams. However, our 4.5 division is still smaller than I would expect in this area with only 5 teams.
So based on this information alone I could see the USTA doing anything:
1) Another big bump up which would essentially serve the purpose of moving most players up a 1/2 level by the time this two year process is done. Where a 2009 3.5 team is roughly the same as a 2011 4.0 team.
2) Just let the situation simmer for a while and let players catch up so the gap between the haves and have-nots diminishes.
or 3) look at how non-competitive the players at the new level were on average and slowly slide players back.
To me (2) makes the most sense, so no way the USTA does this. The USTA will never admit a mistake so option 3 is out. I would not be surprised if option 1 happens.
(3) actually makes the most sense to me. No computer algorithm could ever be perfect at choosing who to bump. Therefore, you are stuck with two types of potential errors - "type A" errors: leaving people who should be bumped at a level where they are too strong and "type B" errors: bumping people to a level where they cannot compete. Of course, the errors occur with the people that are close to the boundaries between the levels. Until last year, the USTA erred on the side of type A errors and set the algorithm so that some people could dominate a level for years and not get bumped. Last year, they made an aggressive move to bump people and cut down on the type A errors and consequently created a lot of type B errors instead. What happened (presumably) is that the former type A errors that got bumped who were ready to compete at the next level for several years were actually able to be competitive once they were forced up. On the other hand, there were a bunch of new type B errors at every level that really struggled and presumably their results bear that out. If they do a reverse of last year's adjustment, it should have the effect of moving the type B players back to the level where they were. Additionally, there will be a lot fewer type A players that won't get bumped because all of those guys were caught the year before and are now competitive players at the higher level.
I could see a system where the adjustment alternates year by year to keep misrated people moving (both up and down) to their correct level. Of course, the side effect of all of this, since the real distribution of tennis ability is continuous and not discrete, is that the players whose ability is really in between the USTA's defined levels will constantly move up and down with every bump and un-bump movement. But these people are a problem for the system anyway. If you want to put them at one level, should it be at the lower level where they will constantly dominate (which is not fair to the rest of the people at that level) or at the higher level where they will forever be losing players (which is not really fair to them)?
OrangePower
Legend
Good observations; a see similar results in my area.
And I agree that option 2 is best:
I think at the individual level, most of the new bump-ups were able to be competetive with other existing players at the lower end of the new level. It's just that the team makeups exaggerate the situation - because the 'new' teams are basically all players at the lower end of the level, while the established teams may have some players at the lower end, but also have players at the higher end. (And of course the best teams have only players at the higher end.) So the gap between teams is high.
So I don't think there's a need to do much more adjustment at the individual level... I think let things develop; new bump-ups will continue to improve, and also over time teams will mix in more players, and things will sort themselves out...
ibeeskeef: Did a local and/or state official mention the above?
ace18
Professional
Not sure what section you guys are in but the August, early start ratings are available for Georgia now, http://www.ustageorgia.com/adults/usta_leagues/esl_info.htm
This does not help players outside the ESL states.
ace18
Professional
So I guess that not all states have early start ratings? Georgia has ESL's in March for summer season, August for winter season and then year end ratings. Oh well, I guess this will let the GA guys know if they've been bumped
JoelDali
Talk Tennis Guru
I believe Spencer made the claim about this year's adjustments.
Not sure if I believe him though. Hes kinda a wise ass.
I believe Spencer made the claim about this year's adjustments.
Not sure if I believe him though. Hes kinda a wise ass.
Who's Spencer?
dizzlmcwizzl
Hall of Fame
we wont get them until sept / october
Usually they come out the week after Thanksgiving.
polski
Semi-Pro
Amen! I can't compete with the kids, but I can with those who played in college 15 years ago & took a big layoff.
PinkTennisNinja
Rookie
I have a question. If I was undefeated last fall (5.5 combo) and undefeated in the spring (3.0 ladies) and lost 5 out of 16 in mixed (6.0 and 7.0) in the summer (just ended), will I get double bumped? I'm a 3.0 and I really want to get bumped to 3.5 (and I think I will) but I don't think I could stand a chance in 4.0. Is there any possibility that might happen?
Seems doubtful without having played any 3.5 adult league matches along the way, but stranger things have happened. Did you generally win 6-1 6-0 in your 3.0 ladies matches?
PinkTennisNinja
Rookie
Lots of 6-0s,1s and 2s. One third setter.
And I know I can play up. However in my area you can't just play up, you have to be asked and the girls around here are pretty set and stuck with there ppl only. I'm a relative newbie around here. I've only been playing league since the beginning of 09 and everyone else started in like 01 to 05ish. Got to be in the "clique" to be on the team haha. But I did finally find my tennis family after this last spring....or they found me
polski
Semi-Pro
Lots of 6-0s,1s and 2s. One third setter.
And I know I can play up. However in my area you can't just play up, you have to be asked and the girls around here are pretty set and stuck with there ppl only. I'm a relative newbie around here. I've only been playing league since the beginning of 09 and everyone else started in like 01 to 05ish. Got to be in the "clique" to be on the team haha. But I did finally find my tennis family after this last spring....or they found me
If you keep winning a lot, you'll find yourself in the clique. Even if not the best team, you'll get picked up by some & the other teams will underestimate you the first time they play you...based on being a 3.0. If you beat them, you'll earn respect & find yourself with more invitations the next time through.
PinkTennisNinja
Rookie
That's actually exactly how I got on the team I'm on now. I stomped the captain and her partner 6-1 6-3 and I'm a really friendly person on and off the court (especially since I was winning haha) so we became friends
And then she asked me to be on all her teams whether it be mixed or ladies. I think we're one of the top 3 teams out of 13 and their not clique-ish at all. Their about having fun and friends and competition The only reason I wasn't able to play up before was because I got stuck on a 3.0 "let's drink and have fun, who cares about winning" ladies team. While it was fun, I still like competition and a challenge. That's when I left and became a "free agent" lol
PinkTennisNinja
Rookie
That's what I'm hoping for
And I'm hoping 6.5 combo this fall will hopefully somewhat prepare me to start playing at a 3.5 level. I think I'm there but I don't want to get there and realize I'm not ready. But I do love a challenge And I don't mind losing (even though I really don't like it haha) as long as I'm improving 
J011yroger
Talk Tennis Guru
That's what I'm hoping for
Best luck in the season!
The moral of the story doesn't change as the numbers get bigger. Keep beating people and doors open.
It isn't fair, but it is how tennis works.
J
rainman007
Rookie
I am pretty sure the only matches that will affect your rating is the spring (3.0) ladies league you were in.. if you played at least two matches your mixed scores do not count.. Your combo scores do not count at all.. Any scores you had in your adult league (ladies 3.0) that were 6-0,6-0 do not count.. So, just going by those scores if you won 6-0, 6-1 and went undefeated you will be a 3.5..
While it is likely, you cannot say that with certainty as we do not know the strength of the opponents.
A double-bump is theoretically possible. I know two players who were double-bumped from 3.0 to 4.0 last season while playing 3.0. However, that was part of "the great realignment", and is likely to be very unusual if this year's ratings aim to maintain the same overall level.
PinkTennisNinja
Rookie
We get our next yr rankings in december. I thought that the scores that go towards that bump were fall combo from the previous yr, spring of that yr and summer mixed....is that not true?
rainman007
Rookie
Combo Does not count at all no matter what.. If you dont play adult and play mixed you get a year end rating (M).. If you play at least 2 adult matches you get a computer rating (C).. if you goto state for adult you get a computer rating but you will be benchmarked (B) and cannot appeal your rating.. also, if you play at least two adult matches none of your mixed scores count at all they only go off adult league.. 6-0, 6-0 scores do not count so just look at all your adult scores to judge your rating..
PinkTennisNinja
Rookie
I don't mean to beat a dead horse but where did you find that out? When I first started I looked up how you got bumped and I couldn't find that kind of description anywhere.
The whole point of this is that if they bump enough of the 4.5s, then there will be enough for a 5.0 league. 5.0 plays 1 singles, 2 doubles instead of 2 & 3, so you don't need as many people on each team.
Each local league can decide what format it wants to play for 5.0 (or any other level). The Atlanta season that is just coming to a close had 2 singles and 3 doubles for 5.0, but in recent years has had 2S/2D and 1S/2D. The great realignment created enough 5.0s to have a full 2S/3D format.
rainman007
Rookie
I don't mean to beat a dead horse but where did you find that out? When I first started I looked up how you got bumped and I couldn't find that kind of description anywhere.
http://besttennislinks.com/USTA Ratings and How the System Works.htm
J011yroger
Talk Tennis Guru
Even in 5.0, every team has a legit 5.5-6.0 player to play the singles spot, sometimes 2. So you end up having lots of real 5.0s playing 4.5 anyway.
And then when the singles player can't make it the team throws a legitimate 5.0 into the singles slot and he catches up with an 0&2 beating.
Even the dubs players are ex DI or pro players, or otherwise just awesome older dubs players.
So if you are a singles player, and you get bumped from 4.5, unless you are an absolute dead ringer beating 4.5 #1 singles guys (most of whom are 5.0s) 0&1, you will get slaughtered in 5.0 singles. So if you can't play dubs well, then you are kind of S.O.L..
That is my experience, and I can only speak for my section, but I imagine it is the same everywhere.
J
polski
Semi-Pro
That may be true here, but we also don't have enough 5.0+ rated players to get leagues filled. There are several 4.5's playing here that are clearly above that rating.
Frankly, the top of the ladder anywhere is going to be an "Open" league division. Since they don't play a lot of high DNRP players, the top players in our local area probably don't get enough high level competition to even get dynamically bumped.
SuperLotto
New User
I am a 3.5 player and have played in 12 3.5 doubles matches and won all of them in 2 sets, easily. 6-0, 6-3--ish. Actually, I think I did go 3 sets once. Will I get bumped up to 4.0?
it depends on the level of the 3.5 players you were playing - were they low 3.5s and/or 3.0 players...if they were you will probably stay at 3.5.
dizzlmcwizzl
Hall of Fame
Like Dafox said it depends on who you played. If your scores were truly this lopsided and most of your matches were against legitimate 3.5's and you will get bumped.
However, if you partnered with a very strong partner playing against very weak opponenets you could play for a long time with being bumped.
SuperLotto
New User
When does the rating season end? After the spring USTA season or after the Fall USTA season? I am speaking specifically of the Ladies USTA.
Obviously as people have said, it depends on the dynamic ratings of your partner and opponents, but most likely, yes, you will be bumped. We had a guy DQ'd this year who only played weak competition but won every match easily, so it would seem that the algorithm puts more emphasis on margin of victory than opponent rating.
dizzlmcwizzl
Hall of Fame
Usually they post year end ratings soon after the last national leaque championship is finished. These championships are played in the fall through november.
SuperLotto
New User
Do you mean the nationals for the spring league? Sorry, I obviously don't know a lot about this stuff.
Also, I can't imagine that all the 3.5 matches I played in that I played against su@ky, 3.5's. That's a lot of matches. I played with different partners on my team, whoever the captain told me to play with.
From what I am reading all the strong 3.5's got bumped up and I ended up playing vanilla 3.5. Problem is that if I get bumped, I will struggle with 4.0's The 3.5's at my club that got bumped are dying on the vine on 4.0.
Also, I can't imagine that all the 3.5 matches I played in that I played against su@ky, 3.5's. That's a lot of matches. I played with different partners on my team, whoever the captain told me to play with.
From what I am reading all the strong 3.5's got bumped up and I ended up playing vanilla 3.5. Problem is that if I get bumped, I will struggle with 4.0's The 3.5's at my club that got bumped are dying on the vine on 4.0.
dizzlmcwizzl
Hall of Fame
I suspect success the spring league qualifies you for the district, sectional and national championships. However, I know different regions all vary in when the play thier leagues. Some are considered early start and play their seasons nearly a full year before nationals ... you should ask someone where you are, whever that is.
All of your adult, senior and super senior matches played will count towards your year-end rating.
Don't be afraid of 4.0. All of the top 4.0's got bumped last year, too, and it's not like 4.0 is tour-ready players. Just work on improving if you get bumped and don't play scared.
rainman007
Rookie
If you were 12-0 at a level and you call them sucky and vanilla you need to be 4.0.. if it doesn't bump you to 4.0 i will be shocked.. if it doesn't bump you to 3.5 you will have a choice to keep killing people and never get better or take some losses and make yourself improve.. I would probably play both if i were you but i would say theres a 99.9 percent chance you'll be bumped with a 12-0 record and the ustas efforts to make players at higher levels this year..
SuperLotto
New User
I am playing both 4 and 3.5. Haven't played a 4.0 yet. I have been shocked at how bad the 3.5's have been that I have played on USTA. Either that, or I have gotten a lot better. I really think they bumped up too many of the 3.5's.
