Stop saying "Nadal is a different player at RG".

manley0702 · May 11, 2015

The stats do NOT support that claim. Historically, Nadal is equally as good at RG as he is at most other clay court tournament.

Monte Carlo: If I calculated correctly, he was 49-2 there from 2005-2014 for a winning % of 96%. Of course, at Monte Carlo you only play 5 matches instead of 7 so if you add in 2 more matches for each of those years and assume he wins those matches (they would be against weaker players), his winning percentage would be 97.2%.

Rome: By the same token his winning percentage there is 93.5%, and his adjusted winning percentage is 95.5%.

Roland Garros: His winning percentage is 98.5%. Yes, it's slightly higher, but performance at MC and Rome should be considered.

SLD76 · May 11, 2015

manley0702 said:
The stats do NOT support that claim. Historically, Nadal is equally as good at RG as he is at most other clay court tournament.

Monte Carlo: If I calculated correctly, he was 49-2 there from 2005-2014 for a winning % of 96%. Of course, at Monte Carlo you only play 5 matches instead of 7 so if you add in 2 more matches for each of those years and assume he wins those matches (they would be against weaker players), his winning percentage would be 97.2%.

Rome: By the same token his winning percentage there is 93.5%, and his adjusted winning percentage is 95.5%.

Roland Garros: His winning percentage is 98.5%. Yes, it's slightly higher, but performance at MC and Rome should be considered.

Exactly. The only reason people say this is he struggled last year on clay (relative to him) and still won the FO.

I strongly believe if he didn't have such a fortuitous draw and then played a sick puking Djoker in the final, people would not have this fall back argument.

tennisaddict · May 11, 2015

Djokovic should be sitting on 2 RG by this time. Losing every SF and final here from 2011 is beyond ridiculous given the form he shows in the warm ups.

Law of averages work. Karma works.

Inanimate_object · May 11, 2015

I would only add that, with regards to Madrid, Nadal IS a different player. And I maintain Madrid is never a very strong evaluation of chances at Paris.

SLD76 · May 11, 2015

Inanimate_object said:
I would only add that, with regards to Madrid, Nadal IS a different player. And I maintain Madrid is never a very strong evaluation of chances at Paris.

I belive that was accounted for in the initial post as OP mentioned only MC and Rome.

And Madrid or no Madrid...who ever would guess Rafa gets routined on any form of clay by Murray of all people!

Inanimate_object · May 11, 2015

And yet the outcry against Nadal is strongest now, when he has reached the final of a clay masters tournament that has little in common with the court conditions of Roland Garros.

SLD76 · May 11, 2015

Inanimate_object said:
And yet the outcry against Nadal is strongest now, when he has reached the final of a clay masters tournament that has little in common with the court conditions of Roland Garros.

And he beat Murray in 3 there last year and got blown out by the same Murray this year. Progress?

Again OP didn't even mention Madrid. And the outcry regarding Nadal is because once again like last year he is struggling on clay and losing to pidgeons left and right and is close to entering the FO without winning one European clay title.

He was damned lucky to win Madrid last year ...he was on his way to a straight sets drubbing when Nishikori blew out his back.

sbengte · May 11, 2015

SLD76 said:
Exactly. The only reason people say this is he struggled last year on clay (relative to him) and still won the FO.

I strongly believe if he didn't have such a fortuitous draw and then played a sick puking Djoker in the final, people would not have this fall back argument.

I do think Nadal got really lucky in 2014 with his RG draw. He went into RG looking as good (or bad) as he looks this year and managed to avoid all landmines and had two sick/weak opponents at the business end (Ferrer,Djoko) . Whereas 2013 I believe was probably his toughest ever RG draw. Remember in R1, Brands was a couple of points away from going 2 sets to 0. Klizan also took a set in the next round and then he played Djoko in that epic semi.That was the year I felt Nadal truly won a well deserved and hard fought RG title.

This year , the RG draw holds the key for him. He can get lucky again if he lands in Fed's half and Raonic's quarter with Djoko,Murray in the other half.
He could also avoid all potential troublemakers like Nishi, Wawa, Monfils in his quarter of the draw. He could breeze through to the semi, beat Berd there and then destroy the winner of a very long and tiring semi b/w Murray and Djoko. That is the best case scenario for Nadal. A version fairly close to this can actually play out.

Amalhotra · May 11, 2015

See though the thing is he is better at RG so yeah

tennisaddict · May 11, 2015

^^^ Agree.

Progress of Fed and Rafa are going to be determined by the draw unlike Novak and Murray.

There are just a few hot players like Monfils, Isner, Kyrgios , GGL.

If they all land up in Novak's side they are toast. You put them on Fedal's side and I can guarantee an upset

D.Nalby12 · May 11, 2015

Well we've to wait at least for month or less, when this myth will fade finally.

broxi51 · May 11, 2015

Nadal is though. Hot sunny day match Nadal is godlike at rg. Being a Murray fan I still have perspective of how dangerous Nadal will be at Roland Garos. Murray played great last night but the conditions helped. Had the match been earlier in the day, I think it would be a much closer match.

Nadal in my eyes is still the favourite for the French but he has more than Djokovic to worry about now.

Feather · May 11, 2015

sbengte said:
I do think Nadal got really lucky in 2014 with his RG draw. He went into RG looking as good (or bad) as he looks this year and managed to avoid all landmines and had two sick/weak opponents at the business end (Ferrer,Djoko) . Whereas 2013 I believe was probably his toughest ever RG draw. Remember in R1, Brands was a couple of points away from going 2 sets to 0. Klizan also took a set in the next round and then he played Djoko in that epic semi.That was the year I felt Nadal truly won a well deserved and hard fought RG title.

This year , the RG draw holds the key for him. He can get lucky again if he lands in Fed's half and Raonic's quarter with Djoko,Murray in the other half.
He could also avoid all potential troublemakers like Nishi, Wawa, Monfils in his quarter of the draw. He could breeze through to the semi, beat Berd there and then destroy the winner of a very long and tiring semi b/w Murray and Djoko. That is the best case scenario for Nadal. A version fairly close to this can actually play out.

What are you talking about? Djokovic lost fair and square. He was not sick and puking.

Mustard · May 11, 2015

manley0702 said:
The stats do NOT support that claim.

The fact that Nadal, to date, has lost only one best of 5 sets match on clay, does support the claim.

cc0509 · May 11, 2015

sbengte said:
I do think Nadal got really lucky in 2014 with his RG draw. He went into RG looking as good (or bad) as he looks this year and managed to avoid all landmines and had two sick/weak opponents at the business end (Ferrer,Djoko) . Whereas 2013 I believe was probably his toughest ever RG draw. Remember in R1, Brands was a couple of points away from going 2 sets to 0. Klizan also took a set in the next round and then he played Djoko in that epic semi.That was the year I felt Nadal truly won a well deserved and hard fought RG title.

This year , the RG draw holds the key for him. He can get lucky again if he lands in Fed's half and Raonic's quarter with Djoko,Murray in the other half.
He could also avoid all potential troublemakers like Nishi, Wawa, Monfils in his quarter of the draw. He could breeze through to the semi, beat Berd there and then destroy the winner of a very long and tiring semi b/w Murray and Djoko. That is the best case scenario for Nadal. A version fairly close to this can actually play out.

It is not really so much the draw, although the draw is important as well, it is Nadal's form and consistency which are the question marks. If his form at RG stays the way it has been and he does not peak for RG, he won't win it this year. I thought when I saw him play Berdych that he had found his form but then the Murray match happened and clearly we found out that his form is inconsistent. Murray played and executed a brilliant game plan to throw Nadal's rhythm off and we have to give Murray credit for his smart play but a 100% confident and in form Nadal would have found some way to counter Murray's play especially if Nadal's fh was working and it would have been a much closer match.

So bottom line is I don't know if what is going on with Nadal is mental, physical or a combination of both but whatever it is, if he does not remedy the situation in time for RG, he won't win. I have no idea what is going to happen.

Algo · May 11, 2015

So, he has to have a perfect score in RG and no wins in the rest to claim that?

thomasferrett · May 11, 2015

broxi51 said:
Nadal is though. Hot sunny day match Nadal is godlike at rg. Being a Murray fan I still have perspective of how dangerous Nadal will be at Roland Garos. Murray played great last night but the conditions helped. Had the match been earlier in the day, I think it would be a much closer match.

Nadal in my eyes is still the favourite for the French but he has more than Djokovic to worry about now.

Also bear in mind though that Nadal was far fresher than Murray for the final since Murray played and won a tournament the previous week that was delayed until the actual start of Madrid, and then compounding this, Murray also played night matches and had less rest before the final.

veroniquem · May 11, 2015

tennisaddict said:
^^^ Agree.

Progress of Fed and Rafa are going to be determined by the draw unlike Novak and Murray.

There are just a few hot players like Monfils, Isner, Kyrgios , GGL.

If they all land up in Novak's side they are toast. You put them on Fedal's side and I can guarantee an upset

With Fed, the upset is guaranteed no matter his draw.

wangs78 · May 11, 2015

Rafa will not win RG this year unless he does not face Djokovic or Murray along the way. Watching him play recently, he is noticeably slower and on the defensive. His shots are often short, and his FH does not seem to be the weapon it once was while his BH is so limited that opponents basically hit to this side easily neutralize him. I even see him hitting errors off his FH which he NEVER did in the past.

What would be interesting, I think, is to see Fed meet this "wounded" Rafa and see if he can get some sweet revenge on the red clay of RG. I wouldn't put money on it though. There is nothing like seeing the Swiss on the other side of the net to inspire Rafa to play his very best tennis...

Sir Percival Blakeney · May 11, 2015

Amalhotra said:
See though the thing is he is better at RG so yeah

I am convinced. The sheer power of this compelling argument has almost knocked me off my chair.

RF-18 · May 11, 2015

Okey, this thread is definet disrespect and underrating.

cc0509 · May 11, 2015

veroniquem said:
With Fed, the upset is guaranteed no matter his draw.

Why don't you just worry about Nadal for once? Don't make grand statements which could backfire on you. Just saying.

It is true that Federer will probably be upset at the FO and will likely not make it beyond the SF stage but I don't think the FO is his focus at all so it is expected. With Nadal the FO is clearly his main focus so if he loses early there it could be a much bigger problem than it would be for Federer, let's be honest.

veroniquem · May 11, 2015

cc0509 said:
Why don't you just worry about Nadal for once? Don't make grand statements which could backfire on you. Just saying.

Fed is more than welcome to prove me wrong. With the way he's been playing this year, I would be absolutely fascinated. (Maybe I would even start re-considering the existence of Santa Claus

)

Chanwan · May 11, 2015

veroniquem said:
With Fed, the upset is guaranteed no matter his draw.

Now ain't that a comfort sweetie?

manley0702 said:
The stats do NOT support that claim. Historically, Nadal is equally as good at RG as he is at most other clay court tournament.

Monte Carlo: If I calculated correctly, he was 49-2 there from 2005-2014 for a winning % of 96%. Of course, at Monte Carlo you only play 5 matches instead of 7 so if you add in 2 more matches for each of those years and assume he wins those matches (they would be against weaker players), his winning percentage would be 97.2%.

Rome: By the same token his winning percentage there is 93.5%, and his adjusted winning percentage is 95.5%.

Roland Garros: His winning percentage is 98.5%. Yes, it's slightly higher, but performance at MC and Rome should be considered.

The stats do support the claim. 90-1 in best of five (close to 99 %) vs. 223-27 in best of 3.
Also, aside from the Djoko match in 2013, he's never been truly close to losing at RG. He's been pretty close to lose more often in both MC and Rome iirc (calling Mustard??).

veroniquem · May 11, 2015

Chanwan said:
Now ain't that a comfort sweetie?

.

No, it's terrible (especially for Fed) but it's not like there is anything I could do about it...

Chanwan · May 11, 2015

veroniquem said:
No, it's terrible (especially for Fed) but it's not like there is anything I could do about it...

Come on now, you don't exactly regard it as terrible. You're relived that Fed is not exactly in form to swoop in and claim the FO with Rafa in questionable form.
Why else would you bring up Fed's worse clay results whenever Rafa is discussed?

Gary Duane · May 11, 2015

Mustard said:
The fact that Nadal, to date, has lost only one best of 5 sets match on clay, does support the claim.

Seems to me that when a player loses only 1 match at RG in 10 years, but loses more matches in other lesser tournaments, it's pretty obvious.

You and I must have a different idea of what logic is.

britam25 · May 11, 2015

Chanwan said:
Come on now, you don't exactly regard it as terrible. You're relived that Fed is not exactly in form to swoop in and claim the FO with Rafa in questionable form.
Why else would you bring up Fed's worse clay results whenever Rafa is discussed?

That's an excellent question. Don't hold your breath waiting for an answer.

OddJack · May 11, 2015

SLD76 said:
Exactly. The only reason people say this is he struggled last year on clay (relative to him) and still won the FO.

I strongly believe if he didn't have such a fortuitous draw and then played a sick puking Djoker in the final, people would not have this fall back argument.

People who say this are hos fans and they are wishful thinking

Smasher08 · May 11, 2015

manley0702 said:
The stats do NOT support that claim. Historically, Nadal is equally as good at RG as he is at most other clay court tournament.

Monte Carlo: If I calculated correctly, he was 49-2 there from 2005-2014 for a winning % of 96%. Of course, at Monte Carlo you only play 5 matches instead of 7 so if you add in 2 more matches for each of those years and assume he wins those matches (they would be against weaker players), his winning percentage would be 97.2%.

Rome: By the same token his winning percentage there is 93.5%, and his adjusted winning percentage is 95.5%.

Roland Garros: His winning percentage is 98.5%. Yes, it's slightly higher, but performance at MC and Rome should be considered.

Nope.

****** will most definitely be a different player at this year's RG.

#8, I reckon.

Chanwan · May 11, 2015

britam25 said:
That's an excellent question. Don't hold your breath waiting for an answer.

thanks - and I'm not. Not once has Vero backtracked/admitted she was wrong/something of that kind.

Still, that doesn't mean someone shouldn't call her BS.

Smasher08 · May 11, 2015

OddJack said:
People who say this are hos fans and they are wishful thinking

Yep, Vero is the only one who's come to terms with it, although Mikey doesn't seem far behind.

Andrew, on the other hand, is probably on the phone with a helpline!

Smasher08 · May 11, 2015

Chanwan said:
Come on now, you don't exactly regard it as terrible. You're relived that Fed is not exactly in form to swoop in and claim the FO with Rafa in questionable form.
Why else would you bring up Fed's worse clay results whenever Rafa is discussed?

Lashing out at the one last target left for her to hit.

So many of the Nadochists were drawn to their guy out of pure hate for Fed. With every Fed defeat and every curious case of miraculous turns their boisterousness grew louder, the constant whispering of questions regarding possible "energy drink" consumption be damned.

Now Fred will retire the undisputed GOAT, and one by one Nads will lose most of the records his fanatics prize.

Here's my question: what did Nads know as he cried repeatedly after the 2014 AO F?

What was it that he saw on the horizon?

Nostradamus · May 11, 2015

manley0702 said:
The stats do NOT support that claim. Historically, Nadal is equally as good at RG as he is at most other clay court tournament.

Monte Carlo: If I calculated correctly, he was 49-2 there from 2005-2014 for a winning % of 96%. Of course, at Monte Carlo you only play 5 matches instead of 7 so if you add in 2 more matches for each of those years and assume he wins those matches (they would be against weaker players), his winning percentage would be 97.2%.

Rome: By the same token his winning percentage there is 93.5%, and his adjusted winning percentage is 95.5%.

Roland Garros: His winning percentage is 98.5%. Yes, it's slightly higher, but performance at MC and Rome should be considered.

actually it is RG + Hot weather.......not just RG

tennisaddict · May 11, 2015

Chanwan said:
thanks - and I'm not. Not once has Vero backtracked/admitted she was wrong/something of that kind.

Still, that doesn't mean someone shouldn't call her BS.

The backtracking is hilarious.

Remember how Kyrgios was pooh-poohed last year at Wimbledon even when Kyrgios was serving for the match for the last game ? And now he is the greatest prodigy before the match against Fed at Madrid.

Same before the Madrid final. She said Murray is the whipping boy of Rafa at clay and Novak at hard.

These two losses are ones to remember !!

booson · May 11, 2015

Nadal, since last year, can barely play three sets without losing stamina. It seems he has changed from previous years. If he manages to play Bo5 and win, it'll be clear he entered RG as a different player.

Tony48 · May 11, 2015

Nadal has won RG 9 times out of 10 attempts. Historically, all events leading up to RG have had no bearing on how successful he is there. Granted, he has had some rather shocking losses this year (to Fogninni & Murray, of all people) and has been looking a little weary. Perhaps THIS is the year where the writing is actually on the wall, given the inexplicable nature.

But still, I wouldn't be surprised if he won it again.

Amalhotra · May 11, 2015

Sir Percival Blakeney said:
I am convinced. The sheer power of this compelling argument has almost knocked me off my chair.

Glad I made an impression

manley0702 · May 11, 2015

SLD76 said:
I belive that was accounted for in the initial post as OP mentioned only MC and Rome.

And Madrid or no Madrid...who ever would guess Rafa gets routined on any form of clay by Murray of all people!

Exactly, SLD. Madrid obviously plays more like a hard court which is why I didn't mention it. I also didn't mention Barca because it's a 500, but it would be a good comparison as well.

manley0702 · May 11, 2015

Chanwan said:
Now ain't that a comfort sweetie?

The stats do support the claim. 90-1 in best of five (close to 99 %) vs. 223-27 in best of 3.
Also, aside from the Djoko match in 2013, he's never been truly close to losing at RG. He's been pretty close to lose more often in both MC and Rome iirc (calling Mustard??).

The percentages are really close especially when you take out this year from your best of 3 calculations (which is only fair because RG hasn't been played this year). When you take into consideration that the first two rounds of any major are automatic wins, then the percentages become much closer. When you take into consideration that BO5 doesn't benefit Nadal now in his older age, it becomes even clearer.

sbengte · May 11, 2015

Feather said:
What are you talking about? Djokovic lost fair and square. He was not sick and puking.

Of course every loss is fair and square. But it was clear that Djoko was nowhere close to his 2013 form last year. I don't know what he was suffering from , it was probably just that he had issues with the heat.

As for Ferrer, he won the first set convincingly and just inexplicably faded away after that. It was understandable if he had collapsed after losing the first set, but this was really strange. No one bothered about it since he is Ferrer, but if you have followed him, you know it is uncharacteristic of him. I read later that he was down with the flu for 15 days after that and I definitely think he was already ill and having stamina issues as this match went on which can be the only explanation for the way he folded AFTER winning the first set. But of course you know that the tennis media exclusively covers the injuries and illnesses of only one player on the tour to the point of the commentators wondering what injury could it be when the said player is losing and the headlines screaming injury/sickness while reporting the loss.

Does that mean Nadal's victory was not legitimate ? Absolutely not. But was he lucky that Djoker/Ferrer were not at his best to pose a decent enough challenge for him ? Absolutely yes.

SLD76 · May 11, 2015

During the match they repeatedly showed Djoker puking on court. I don't know why you even bothered with the long response Sbengte, some people like to live in denial.

Backspin1183 · May 11, 2015

Nadal beat Djokovic fair and square. Everyone but bitter Nadal haters saw it. Even Chico created a thread admitting how Nadal beat Djokovic fair and square without the help of Pascal Maria lol

Djokovic has lost each match at RG to Nadal simply because Nadal is too good for him at RG.

The_Mental_Giant · May 11, 2015

tennisaddict said:
Djokovic should be sitting on 2 RG by this time. Losing every SF and final here from 2011 is beyond ridiculous given the form he shows in the warm ups.

Law of averages work. Karma works.

should doesnt matter in life or sport..

Netherlands "should" have won the world cup of 1974 and 1978 but they didnt and thats what matter.

Rios should have won AO 1998 instead of Korda.... Coria should have won Rg 2004 instead of gaudio..

The case of djokovic is different... because by the time Nole really had a chance against nadal .. lets say 2012... rafa had already 6 rg trophies.. and to the 6 time champion of the last 7 years.. we should give him the benefit of the doubt, no? lol

Mr.Lob · May 12, 2015

Backspin1183 said:
Even Chico created a thread admitting how Nadal beat Djokovic fair and square without the help of Pascal.

No way. Chico? He must have been sick that day.

Backspin1183 · May 12, 2015

Mr.Lob said:
No way. Chico? He must have been sick that day.

He saw the whole match and right after the match created that thread. I guess he was disappointed with Djokovic.

SLD76 · May 12, 2015

Backspin1183 said:
Nadal beat Djokovic fair and square. Everyone but bitter Nadal haters saw it. Even Chico created a thread admitting how Nadal beat Djokovic fair and square without the help of Pascal Maria lol

Djokovic has lost each match at RG to Nadal simply because Nadal is too good for him at RG.

....
Nobody said Nadal didn't win fair and sqaure. But it's also true that Djoker was sick and puking on court. And no I don't think it was the heat alone. This dude has been an Ironman since 2011.

He went 6 hours in a hot Australian humid summer with Nadal in 2012..I don't think a hot day in France will have him puking.

The truth is Nadal won
It's also true Djoker.was sick.

Backspin1183 · May 12, 2015

SLD76 said:
....
Nobody said Nadal didn't win fair and sqaure. But it's also true that Djoker was sick and puking on court. And no I don't think it was the heat alone. This dude has been an Ironman since 2011.

He went 6 hours in a hot Australian humid summer with Nadal in 2012..I don't think a hot day in France will have him puking.

The truth is Nadal won
It's also true Djoker.was sick.

He looked OK to me. He even blamed the crowd for the DF at championship point. If he was sick, it didn't stop him from playing as well as he could at RG. He lost to someone he has never figured out his entire career at the French Open.

I do respect your views though, Mr Hamburger.

thomasferrett · May 12, 2015

Backspin1183 said:
He looked OK to me. He even blamed the crowd for the DF at championship point. If he was sick, it didn't stop him from playing as well as he could at RG. He lost to someone he has never figured out his entire career at the French Open.

I do respect your views though, Mr Hamburger.

And he won't figure Nadal out this year either.

Best of five, Nadal is simply too fit for Djokovic to ever be able to beat on clay even if Nadal is old.

fed_is_GOD · May 12, 2015

so many raging emotions for one tournament...

djokovic better get the job done.. or else the whole world would crucify him for giving people hope...

Stop saying "Nadal is a different player at RG".

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