2019: Clearly Greatest RG Everer

[Meles]

Could be best slam played due to the deep number of top contenders and of course Federer's return with strong chance to win RG given his recent record against Nadal:
1. Zverev - brought out his big hitting game in last match and won fifth set easily. Zverev is heading towards better form than when he destroyed Djokovic in Rome 2017 Final and possibly near his level when rain saved Nadal from defeat in 2018 Rome Final. Dispatched Thiem in 2018 Madrid Final so he's got the game to win RG especially if a Nadal after five set SF is in final or another playerer.
2. Nadal - definitely in prime form, but at least Goffin showed for a set he can be had. Nadal's apparent strength, but lack of peak level make 2019 very interesting.
3. Djokovic - clearly 2nd favorite and going for 4th slam in a row. Ticks the box for greatness.
4. Federer - amazing clay statistics make this perhaps the best clay Federer everer. Has not lost a set and very easy R16 match will help him immensely.
5. Thiem - A shaky if unsurprising start by Thiem who got bounced early from Rome siting the rain and how officials hurt him with match time (lack of sleep.) This is similar script to 2018 US Open where Thiem found tremendous form for R16 and QF. Could easily win RG with Nadal down a notch and Thiem's own game likely entering its peak phase this year.
6. Tsitsipas - proved himself the real deal on clay with Nadal defeat in Madrid

Other threats that make 2019 unique:
1. Goffin had some great form and took set from Nadal
2. Fognini in the form of his life this clay season and set to hit Zverev R16/Djoko/Thiem/Nadal/Federer
3. Wawrinka vs Tsitsipas in R16 - Wawrinka in surprisingly solid form and could get better. Has the worst draw with Tsitsipas/Federer/Nadal/Finalist
4. Del Potro - showed some fine form in Rome taking Djokovic three sets and clearly has the game to make final and probably beat one other than Nadal
5. Khachanov - horrible start to year, but his third straight 4th round at Roland Garros. Showed himself very dangerous in Paris last Fall and has the big serve game necessary to win slams. Like Thiem at 2018 US Open, a player due to round back into form.

The rest of the field left for R16 is quality save perhaps a hobbled Leonardo Mayer.

Simply don't remember a slam field with this much potential come R16. #DiamondAge @nn

 

[Third Serve]

You can't forget LaMonf!

 

[MarcusInKensington]

Stan looking good - will win Roland Garros.

 

[Sport]

The Next Gen will be amazing this RG. Don't lose your faith @Meles!

 

[Phoenix1983]

Zverev unlikely to get to the R16.

 

[ghostofMecir]

Could be best slam played due to the deep number of top contenders and of course Federer's return with strong chance to win RG given his recent record against Nadal:
1. Zverev - brought out his big hitting game in last match and won fifth set easily [amazing achievement this was!]
4. Federer - amazing clay statistics make this perhaps the best clay Federer everer. Has not lost a set and very easy R16 match will help him immensely.

Other threats that make 2019 unique:
1. Goffin had some great form and took set from Nadal

Simply don't remember a slam field with this much potential come R16. #DiamondAge @nn

@Meles popping shrooms again, I see...

 

[helterskelter]

One of the dullest first weeks ever. All of the top 8 through to the last 16 - in fact, all of the top ten, but the top 8 is the metric that matters in a knockout draw.

 

[helterskelter]

Zverev unlikely to get to the R16.

He's already got to the R16.

 

[Meles]

You can't forget LaMonf!

7/2018 SF Buenos Aires Clay Dominic Thiem Gael Monfils 6-2 6-1
10/2017 R16 Indian Wells Masters Hard Dominic Thiem Gael Monfils 6-3 6-2 1.91 - 1.83
45/2016 RR A ATP World Tour Finals I Hard Dominic Thiem Gael Monfils 6-3 1-6 6-4
30/2015 SF Umag Clay Dominic Thiem Gael Monfils 1-6 6-3 6-1 2.70 - 1.42

yes one can

 

[NBP]

Could be best slam played due to the deep number of top contenders and of course Federer's return with strong chance to win RG given his recent record against Nadal:
1. Zverev - brought out his big hitting game in last match and won fifth set easily. Zverev is heading towards better form than when he destroyed Djokovic in Rome 2017 Final and possibly near his level when rain saved Nadal from defeat in 2018 Rome Final. Dispatched Thiem in 2018 Madrid Final so he's got the game to win RG especially if a Nadal after five set SF is in final or another playerer.
2. Nadal - definitely in prime form, but at least Goffin showed for a set he can be had. Nadal's apparent strength, but lack of peak level make 2019 very interesting.
3. Djokovic - clearly 2nd favorite and going for 4th slam in a row. Ticks the box for greatness.
4. Federer - amazing clay statistics make this perhaps the best clay Federer everer. Has not lost a set and very easy R16 match will help him immensely.
5. Thiem - A shaky if unsurprising start by Thiem who got bounced early from Rome siting the rain and how officials hurt him with match time (lack of sleep.) This is similar script to 2018 US Open where Thiem found tremendous form for R16 and QF. Could easily win RG with Nadal down a notch and Thiem's own game likely entering its peak phase this year.
6. Tsitsipas - proved himself the real deal on clay with Nadal defeat in Madrid

Other threats that make 2019 unique:
1. Goffin had some great form and took set from Nadal
2. Fognini in the form of his life this clay season and set to hit Zverev R16/Djoko/Thiem/Nadal/Federer
3. Wawrinka vs Tsitsipas in R16 - Wawrinka in surprisingly solid form and could get better. Has the worst draw with Tsitsipas/Federer/Nadal/Finalist
4. Del Potro - showed some fine form in Rome taking Djokovic three sets and clearly has the game to make final and probably beat one other than Nadal
5. Khachanov - horrible start to year, but his third straight 4th round at Roland Garros. Showed himself very dangerous in Paris last Fall and has the big serve game necessary to win slams. Like Thiem at 2018 US Open, a player due to round back into form.

The rest of the field left for R16 is quality save perhaps a hobbled Leonardo Mayer.

Simply don't remember a slam field with this much potential come R16. #DiamondAge @nn

You mean Federe

 

[NBP]

The last two times a slam had at least 5-6 top contenders go deep was the French 2015 and last year Wimbledon. And both tournaments had great matches like the Nishikori-Tsonga QF, Murray-Djokovic SF, Stan-Djokovic F, Federer-Anderson QF, del Potro-Nadal QF, Nadal-Djokovic F and so on. Tired of bums reaching QF and SF just to mess up draws and we get drab matches.

Could also be the first time ever in the Open era that the top 8 seeds make the QF of a slam, don't quote me on that though.

 

[WhiskeyEE]

One of the dullest first weeks ever. All of the top 8 through to the last 16 - in fact, all of the top ten, but the top 8 is the metric that matters in a knockout draw.

I can't recall a less interesting week of a grand slam. Haven't even heard of half the guys I've seen on TV.

 

[Phoenix1983]

He's already got to the R16.

I meant QF.

 

[Sport]

I can't recall a less interesting week of a grand slam. Haven't even heard of half the guys I've seen on TV.

AO 2018.

 

[helterskelter]

I meant QF.

Then I agree, but only just. I would make Fognini something like a 55/45 favorite. More big a difference is that I think Fognini has more chance of giving Djokovic a run for his money. Unless Zverev somehow beats Fognini easily, which seems unlikely, Zverev might well be too tired by the QF.

 

[Third Serve]

7/2018 SF Buenos Aires Clay Dominic Thiem Gael Monfils 6-2 6-1
10/2017 R16 Indian Wells Masters Hard Dominic Thiem Gael Monfils 6-3 6-2 1.91 - 1.83
45/2016 RR A ATP World Tour Finals I Hard Dominic Thiem Gael Monfils 6-3 1-6 6-4
30/2015 SF Umag Clay Dominic Thiem Gael Monfils 1-6 6-3 6-1 2.70 - 1.42

yes one can

You can include him in the second list, since Goffin is there as well and Nadal knocked him out.

 

[helterskelter]

@Meles What do you make of the fact that nine of the last 16 men are 30+ and 11 of the last 16 are 29+? Here are the under-30 players:

Tsitsipas (20)
Zverev (22)
Khachanov (23)
Thiem (25)
Londero (25)
Nishikori (29)
Struff (29)

 

[Meles]

One of the dullest first weeks ever. All of the top 8 through to the last 16 - in fact, all of the top ten, but the top 8 is the metric that matters in a knockout draw.

Yes, but all the big guns are in R16 and very much alive. The field is well balanced save Nadal getting Nishikori, but somebody had too.

Quality early 2019 matches:
Delpo vs Nishioka - a lot of hammering going on with Delpo not always able to hit through the speed Nishioka
Coric vs Struff - Borna always with that potential with his match ups versus top players, but not Struff Enuf
Lajovic vs Zverev - Dusan definitely had his Monte Carlo form for this one, but not edge of your seat stuff
Tsits vs Krajinovic - Kraji brought the goods finally for a big match
Ruud vs Federer - Ruud showed he's on track to compete well on clay
Djokovic vs Hurkacz - very watchable tennis even if conclusion foregone
Jarry vs Delpo - (Jarry also good to watch vs Zverev in Geneva final) big guys clashing on clay is surprisingly good these days

Wawrinka vs Garin - very high tennis at the end of the bagel - hoping to catch this on replay as Stanimal was punishing a very mobile and dangerous Garin.


Its been slim picking really, but that's because draw is set up beautifully for the the last rounds. We can complain about Nishikori vs Nadal quarter, but really Nishi probably will give his best opposition to Nadal rather than the other top seeds so really its perfect leaving the other top seeds with dangerous matches for QFs.

 

[Meles]

You can include him in the second list, since Goffin is there as well and Nadal knocked him out.

Well he's got a better chance of winning his match vs Thiem than Struff, Mayer, or Londero theirs according to Ultimate Statistics. If Gael keeps it up he'll be a force on hard courts, but he's little threat on clay.

 

[Meles]

The Next Gen will be amazing this RG. Don't lose your faith @Meles!

They've been fine. It would have been nice if Coric had kept himself in the event, but Coric on clay is for me like being Linus and waiting for the Great Pumpkin:

At least Khachanov is showing signs of being alive. Thiem, Zverev, and Tsitsipas three of the top contenders so hard to complain. Clay is for Euros so its really wishful thinking to expect FAA and the likes to dominate (FAA made Lyon final.)

Exciting young clay courters this year:
Ruud (great, great stats and quality match with Federe this year at RG)
Fokina (injured, but loads of potential at age 19)
Ymer (the Younger had run out of blue at RG 2019)
Moliker (very young German who looked great and qualified)
Sinner (17 year old Italian at Rome with Delpo like electricity to his strokes)

Definitely excellent year for NextGen on clay with FAA's success at two finals.

 

[Meles]

@Meles What do you make of the fact that nine of the last 16 men are 30+ and 11 of the last 16 are 29+? Here are the under-30 players:

Tsitsipas (20)
Zverev (22)
Khachanov (23)
Thiem (25)
Londero (25)
Nishikori (29)
Struff (29)

Well clay peak can come as late as 28-30 years old. Clay favors younger players, but at slams you need stamina as well so hard for the youngerer ones to go deep.

I don't really see a bad under perform for NextGen at this event. Demon is coming back from injury and just not a great surface for him.

Hurkacz hit Djoko first round, Garin hit red hot Wawrinka, Jarry got Delpo first round. None of them have played poorly. A lot of this is luck of the draw. Ruud took care of Berrittini. Mahut torpedoed Cecchinato first round in a fine, fine match.

 

[Meles]

You mean Federe

Serious poast, no Federe or Zedzilla/Zedrot. Making statement for posterity.

I have to say the four R16 matches tomorrow are not that exciting in bold save Tsits vs Wawa, but Monday much betterer with the top half:
Djokovic N [1] v Struff J (at least Struff has the potential to hit big and make this one interesting)
Fognini F [9] v Zverev A [5]
Thiem D [4] v Monfils G [14]
Khachanov K [10] v Del Potro J [8]
Tsitsipas S [6] v Wawrinka S [24]
Mayer L v Federer R [3]
Nishikori K [7] v Paire B
Londero v Nadal R [2]

 

[helterskelter]

Yes, but all the big guns are in R16 and very much alive. The field is well balanced save Nadal getting Nishikori, but somebody had too.

Quality early 2019 matches:
Delpo vs Nishioka - a lot of hammering going on with Delpo not always able to hit through the speed Nishioka
Coric vs Struff - Borna always with that potential with his match ups versus top players, but not Struff Enuf
Lajovic vs Zverev - Dusan definitely had his Monte Carlo form for this one, but not edge of your seat stuff
Tsits vs Krajinovic - Kraji brought the goods finally for a big match
Ruud vs Federer - Ruud showed he's on track to compete well on clay
Djokovic vs Hurkacz - very watchable tennis even if conclusion foregone
Jarry vs Delpo - (Jarry also good to watch vs Zverev in Geneva final) big guys clashing on clay is surprisingly good these days

Wawrinka vs Garin - very high tennis at the end of the bagel - hoping to catch this on replay as Stanimal was punishing a very mobile and dangerous Garin.


Its been slim picking really, but that's because draw is set up beautifully for the the last rounds. We can complain about Nishikori vs Nadal quarter, but really Nishi probably will give his best opposition to Nadal rather than the other top seeds so really its perfect leaving the other top seeds with dangerous matches for QFs.

As you say, slim picking so far. Better in my view to have a stronger first week - which means not only some close matches but definitely must have some major upsets - then a dud of a first week and the potential for a good second week. We don't know that the second week will turn out well. It could easily fizzle. Anyway, a full half of the tournament being poor makes it not a contender for greatest ever, in my view. But de gustibus non est disputandum and all that jazz.

 

[helterskelter]

Serious poast, no Federe or Zedzilla/Zedrot. Making statement for posterity.

I have to say the four R16 matches tomorrow are not that exciting in bold save Tsits vs Wawa, but Monday much betterer with the top half:
Djokovic N [1] v Struff J (at least Struff has the potential to hit big and make this one interesting)
Fognini F [9] v Zverev A [5]
Thiem D [4] v Monfils G [14]
Khachanov K [10] v Del Potro J [8]
Tsitsipas S [6] v Wawrinka S [24]
Mayer L v Federer R [3]
Nishikori K [7] v Paire B
Londero v Nadal R [2]

Nishikori v Paire could be interesting. Might not be, but could be.

 

[RF-18]

@Meles Any stats on Fed so far compared to his previous versions?

 

[TheMaestro1990]

Is Zverev a top contender?

 

[Meles]

Nishikori v Paire could be interesting. Might not be, but could be.

Paire has won two events this year; he could win easily and maybe take out Dull? Five years ago one might have been foolish enough to have hope. Still a good match, but not a lot of future implications or past really for that matterer.

 

[I Am Finnish]

Nishikori v Paire could be interesting. Might not be, but could be.

Depends on paire mood

 

[Meles]

@Meles Any stats on Fed so far compared to his previous versions?

Give it a few more rounds and I might try. Misinfosys is handling the data this year and so you have to add up matches as you go. They do have their Infosys Social Heat Map for RG.

 

[Subway Tennis]

agree @Meles

The impression I get is that this might be one of the best ever second weeks of a major.

All the ATGs are in form and still in the draw, along with the enigmas like Fognini, Wawrinka, and the #nexgen campaign is in full swing. In the very least a new historic chapter to be written for Nadal, Djokovic or Federer, or a spectacular changing of the guard moment will occur.

The only area I disagree in is I am slightly more bullish about Claykori's ability to make a match of it (he still has to do his underarm serve as promised to coach Chang before the event!)

 

[Meles]

agree @Meles
The impression I get is that this might be one of the best ever second weeks of a major.

All the ATGs are in form and still in the draw, along with the enigmas like Fognini, Wawrinka, and the #nexgen campaign is in full swing. In the very least a new historic chapter to be written for Nadal, Djokovic or Federer, or a spectacular changing of the guard moment will occur.

The only area I disagree in is I am slightly more bullish about Claykori's ability to make a match of it (he still has to do his underarm serve as promised to coach Chang before the event!)

Thiem was destroyed by those in one match from Bublik.

Nishikori in the right spot in draw where he can do the most damage I'll agree.

 

[NaomiKonjuhPotapova]

Felix withdrew so no.

 

[Meles]

agree @Meles

The impression I get is that this might be one of the best ever second weeks of a major.

All the ATGs are in form and still in the draw, along with the enigmas like Fognini, Wawrinka, and the #nexgen campaign is in full swing. In the very least a new historic chapter to be written for Nadal, Djokovic or Federer, or a spectacular changing of the guard moment will occur.

The only area I disagree in is I am slightly more bullish about Claykori's ability to make a match of it (he still has to do his underarm serve as promised to coach Chang before the event!)

R16:
Stanimal Resurrection vs Goatsipas: check plus, plus, plus
Zedzilla Resurrection vs Fognini: check
Khachanov up ends Delpo: check

QFs:
WTF Champ vs Auz/Madrid Champ: check
Paris Champ vs Indian Wells Champ: check
Miami Champ vs a Stanimal: check
Rome Champ vs Brisbane Champ: check minus (Nishikori probably in best spot for him to cause a little trouble, but just went 5 with Paire)

Greatest RG everer will likely be destroyed by rain and lack of roof from here on.

 

[Meles]

You can't forget LaMonf!

Monfils actually after a horror start played the best tennis I've seen him do on a clay court.

 

[Poisoned Slice]

 

[Subway Tennis]

R16:
Stanimal Resurrection vs Goatsipas: check plus, plus, plus
Zedzilla Resurrection vs Fognini: check
Khachanov up ends Delpo: check

QFs:
WTF Champ vs Auz/Madrid Champ: check
Paris Champ vs Indian Wells Champ: check
Miami Champ vs a Stanimal: check
Rome Champ vs Brisbane Champ: check minus (Nishikori probably in best spot for him to cause a little trouble, but just went 5 with Paire)

Greatest RG everer will likely be destroyed by rain and lack of roof from here on.

Very heavy leveller type conditions incoming. We have as many as 2 ATGs fall in the next 2 rounds