Betting 40000$ on Federer: to do or not to do
- Thread starter Rubens
- Start date
Thats utterly stupid dude. An idiot could make 5% fool proof return on 40K e.g. bonds, depedning on your countries interest rates just putting it in the bank etc and less foolproof but it is easy to make 5% return in stocks in a year
If you have 40k to spare then why are you getting advice on the likes of this forum
If 40K means nothing to you as either your very rich or simply dont care then by all means go for it but youd be better off on betting fed to lose to get big bucks and more excitement
If you have 40k to spare then why are you getting advice on the likes of this forum
If 40K means nothing to you as either your very rich or simply dont care then by all means go for it but youd be better off on betting fed to lose to get big bucks and more excitement
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True Fanerer
G.O.A.T.
Living dangerously.. Can I borrow 20 bucks?
Sudacafan
Bionic Poster
If you have money to bet $40,000 you surely don´t give a d**n about money.
So bet that on Fucsovics, if you win, you win big. If you lose, you will be happy Roger won. It's a win-win situation.
Sudacafan
Bionic Poster
The odds are not so unfavorable, I prefer the vulture fund style.
D
Deleted member 3771
Guest
Can you loan me 40k and put a bet on for me. I'll pay you back the 40k after Fed wins. 
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
I mean, he won't lose to Fucsovics. So you get a free $1000, pretty much. As long as you're fine with the risk that Federer loses it, go for the free money.
tennis_pro
Bionic Poster
There is almost 0 chance Federer loses to Fucsovics but still don't do it, man.
tacou
G.O.A.T.
You've got this gambling thing down cold.
MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
Or you know, don't bet 40 grand on anything...ever...
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
He won't lose = in several hours we check back here and see I was right.
Risk that he loses = even though I will be right, there's a chance I'm not.
In effect, what I'm saying is I don't think Federer will lose. I'd be willing to put down $40000 dollars on it and reap that profit. If this guy's fine with the risk, I say go for it. Understand, or do I need to dumb it down a bit?
Bartelby
Bionic Poster
That's what I would have thought.
Betting sites have ways and means to stop you betting on sure things from what I read.
They are even refusing bets based on your online track record.
Betting sites have ways and means to stop you betting on sure things from what I read.
They are even refusing bets based on your online track record.
Rubens
Hall of Fame
Yea that's what I heard too. So they'd probably stop me anyway.
Bartelby
Bionic Poster
An interesting story:
Which set me thinking, could short odds betting, whereby the chances of something happening are relatively high, at the very least beat interest rates offered by banks and building societies? And could I achieve this while heeding the industry’s obligatory warning to “gamble responsibly”?
For a middle class softy the inside of a bookie’s can be an alien environment. Never mind the primary colours, bright lighting and air of stale sweat; seeing familiar faces from the neighbourhood hunched over fixed odds machines – the milch cow of high street bookmakers now that much of the action has gone online – was hardly uplifting. Especially as I recognised one of them as the same young man who a week earlier had begged a fiver off me on the street with a brilliantly convincing sob story.
But I kept at it. Every week, en route to the farmers’ market, I popped into Ladbrokes and staked £20. (When I told one of the staff that it was no great diversion since I was passing anyway, she guffawed, “that’s what they all say”.)
But soon I was the one laughing. In fact, with 50 bets now under my belt, my profit margin stands at 18.5%; my £1,000 has turned into £1,185.48. Beat that, Nationwide.
How have I done it? First, by betting only on short odds. Never more than 1/1 (or “evens” as I learned to call it), but more often around 4/9. Thus my highest profit was £20, though typically it ranged from £6-£9.
Secondly, I paid only in cash. As certain pals of mine admitted, internet accounts are an open doorway to temptation.
Thirdly, I kept detailed records, to log my progress but also to ensure that I never tried to kid myself.
Fourthly, as seasoned pro told me, “Think like an investor. Never bet for emotional reasons”. (He was right. Andy Murray to beat Novak Djokovic. What was I thinking?)
Lastly, I only ever bet on “two-horse” races. Which of course meant not betting on horse racing at all, but on football, rugby, cricket or tennis matches. And only ever on the result. Never anything fancy like “both teams to score” or an accumulator. Too complicated, too great a mental strain.
Maybe I am just lucky. Of the 50 bets I have made, I lost only 12
When I tell hardened gamblers of my success rate, they ask which tipsters I read, which form guides I consult. Embarrassed, I have to admit I barely take more than five minutes a week to choose which match to bet on. Mostly I just look at a website called Oddschecker, then maybe a league table, then at recent results… and that’s it.
One gambler muttered “unprofessional” when I said I always go to the same bookie, even though another might be offering better odds. But frankly, I could never be bothered to walk the extra half mile.
Maybe I am just lucky. Of the 50 bets I have made, I lost only 12, bringing my profit for the year to £185.48.
Which set me thinking, could short odds betting, whereby the chances of something happening are relatively high, at the very least beat interest rates offered by banks and building societies? And could I achieve this while heeding the industry’s obligatory warning to “gamble responsibly”?
For a middle class softy the inside of a bookie’s can be an alien environment. Never mind the primary colours, bright lighting and air of stale sweat; seeing familiar faces from the neighbourhood hunched over fixed odds machines – the milch cow of high street bookmakers now that much of the action has gone online – was hardly uplifting. Especially as I recognised one of them as the same young man who a week earlier had begged a fiver off me on the street with a brilliantly convincing sob story.
But I kept at it. Every week, en route to the farmers’ market, I popped into Ladbrokes and staked £20. (When I told one of the staff that it was no great diversion since I was passing anyway, she guffawed, “that’s what they all say”.)
But soon I was the one laughing. In fact, with 50 bets now under my belt, my profit margin stands at 18.5%; my £1,000 has turned into £1,185.48. Beat that, Nationwide.
How have I done it? First, by betting only on short odds. Never more than 1/1 (or “evens” as I learned to call it), but more often around 4/9. Thus my highest profit was £20, though typically it ranged from £6-£9.
Secondly, I paid only in cash. As certain pals of mine admitted, internet accounts are an open doorway to temptation.
Thirdly, I kept detailed records, to log my progress but also to ensure that I never tried to kid myself.
Fourthly, as seasoned pro told me, “Think like an investor. Never bet for emotional reasons”. (He was right. Andy Murray to beat Novak Djokovic. What was I thinking?)
Lastly, I only ever bet on “two-horse” races. Which of course meant not betting on horse racing at all, but on football, rugby, cricket or tennis matches. And only ever on the result. Never anything fancy like “both teams to score” or an accumulator. Too complicated, too great a mental strain.
Maybe I am just lucky. Of the 50 bets I have made, I lost only 12
When I tell hardened gamblers of my success rate, they ask which tipsters I read, which form guides I consult. Embarrassed, I have to admit I barely take more than five minutes a week to choose which match to bet on. Mostly I just look at a website called Oddschecker, then maybe a league table, then at recent results… and that’s it.
One gambler muttered “unprofessional” when I said I always go to the same bookie, even though another might be offering better odds. But frankly, I could never be bothered to walk the extra half mile.
Maybe I am just lucky. Of the 50 bets I have made, I lost only 12, bringing my profit for the year to £185.48.
It is possible to make money gambling on short odd bets. Just gotta be patient and disciplined.
Sudacafan
Bionic Poster
There is always the risk of being injured during a match... no jinx intended.
Spencer Gore
Legend
Football, rugby and cricket aren't "two horse races": they can all be drawn, which is a third horse.
Bartelby
Bionic Poster
A tennis match has to be completed as well to pay out, but you're right.
It would be best to bet on matches not easily drawn.
It would be best to bet on matches not easily drawn.
money_ball
Rookie
A fool and his money are soon parted.
Gary Duane
G.O.A.T.
Shaolin
G.O.A.T.
He can stop anytime.
Gary Duane
G.O.A.T.
Well, he can when he is out of money, until he finds more money!
True Fanerer
G.O.A.T.
Where have you been hiding? No AO threads ready?
Bartelby
Bionic Poster
My one and only bet on tennis was for Fed to win the whole thing a while ago and, of course, he lost.
But I was betting on the outcome of seven matches, and not on one as in this scenario.
But I was betting on the outcome of seven matches, and not on one as in this scenario.
D
Deleted member 688153
Guest
Stuff Federer and buy gold instead. Seriously. That would be a good investment.
Make sure you buy physical metal and take possession of it though. No stupid paper gold certificates or anything. They're probably all fake.
Make sure you buy physical metal and take possession of it though. No stupid paper gold certificates or anything. They're probably all fake.
EloQuent
Legend
D
Deleted member 688153
Guest
I've bet against Roger a few times, and without fail, he has won.
People accuse Fed fans such as myself of being arrogant, but even we underestimate him greatly.
D
Deleted member 688153
Guest
Indeed. I wouldn't be surprised if he lost to Fuco, or if he beat Djoker and Nadal back to back and won.
Nothing he does is really surprising any more after last AO.
Shaolin
G.O.A.T.
Thats what you deserve for betting against the GOAT!!
D
Deleted member 716271
Guest
Agreed. Or you could hedge it. Clever thinking. There's money to be made if you can tolerate large losses (most people cant). Its a utility factor. If you can its worth it. Its why the rich get richer.
One also can always sign up to a new site. They won't refuse the bet unless they have a general cap.
Jackuar
Hall of Fame
Call it just FedCoin. Drop the "erer".
EloQuent
Legend
or just Coinerer
Tommy Haas
Hall of Fame
If you have 40K to blow then you might as well participate in the biggest pyramid scheme of all time called Bitcoin.
Jackuar
Hall of Fame
Nah, don't bring the error(erer) in
EloQuent
Legend
CyberererererNah, don't bring the error(erer) in
BGod
G.O.A.T.
I saw the OP and immediately saw sarcasm.
When it comes to sports betting I stayed well in the black back in college for over 2 years by long bets over short. 1 long bet could cover a dozen shorts.
But I stayed with basketball, football and tennis. With tennis I bet early rounds going for style disadvantages. S&V players against Top 50 seeds that could rarely account. Other times it was either Fed or Novak to win it all. I did win on Wawrinka USO 16 most recently as a rare bet these days.
But the OP's proposition taken at face value is insanity. There are a multitude of times a sure bet pays out 20% not 2.5% which is what the OP math was at $40,000=$1,000.
When it comes to sports betting I stayed well in the black back in college for over 2 years by long bets over short. 1 long bet could cover a dozen shorts.
But I stayed with basketball, football and tennis. With tennis I bet early rounds going for style disadvantages. S&V players against Top 50 seeds that could rarely account. Other times it was either Fed or Novak to win it all. I did win on Wawrinka USO 16 most recently as a rare bet these days.
But the OP's proposition taken at face value is insanity. There are a multitude of times a sure bet pays out 20% not 2.5% which is what the OP math was at $40,000=$1,000.
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
Unlike the others here, if the guy followed my advice, he came out of this $1000 richer...
Rafa24
Hall of Fame
haha i actually laughed out loud at that.
Rafa24
Hall of Fame
hindsight is 20/20
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
Mine was foresight, though...
Rafa24
Hall of Fame
yes, but it's easy to say I was right after the fact. Risking 40,000 isn't worth it betting on a 36 year old who's back could go out like it did in the final against zverev last year. risk/reward not worth it.
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