Can Sinner accomplish the greatest result in Grand Slams?

[AO13]

By doing the unimaginable, unachievable, a feat no one has ever done in history of tennis, let alone in one season - defeating Novak Djokovic at Australian Open and Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros?

To even get a chance to do that, he has to play good enough to face them in the final rounds of those slams. Also, Novak has to get to semi final of AO (currently at R16) and Nadal to semi final or final of RG.

Key points:

1. Novak never lost AO semi final or final match (20 wins). He did lose on 8 occasions, but it was before the semis. Novak lost to Marat Safin in 2005 R128, Paul Goldstein in 2006 R128, Roger Federer in 2007 R16, Andy Roddick in 2009 QF, Jo Wilfriend Tsonga in 2010 QF, Stan Wawrinka in 2014 QF, Denis Istomin in 2017 R64 and Hyeon Chung in 2018 R16. So far in his career, he has achieved 92 wins out of 100 matches.

2. Rafael Nadal is virtually untouchable on RG, but as this would probably be his last year on tour, it's the best chance one could get to beat him on his favorite tournament. The God of clay has suffered only 3 defeats in his lifetime on French clay, those being against Robin Soderling in 2009 R16, Novak Djokovic in 2015 QF and Novak Djokovic in 2021 SF. Once he enters the final, it's over - 14 titles from 14 finals. So far, he has achieved 112 wins out of 115 matches.

As you can see, no player ever has beat both Novak on AO and Rafa on RG in history of tennis. Not even great Roger Federer could do that, as he didn't manage to get to 5th set against Rafa on 4 occasions, while he lost to him in 3 sets on 2 occasions.

One could argue Jannik Sinner currently plays best tennis on tour and he has the game for every surface. He's full of confidence and he looks like he's ready to start winning slams. If he wants to win, he'll have to beat the best - Novak already in SF in Australian Open. If the matchup occurs and Jannik wins, I believe he'll have to face Nadal in RG and I do believe he can beat him, thus achieving the Holy Duo accomplishment.

What are your thoughts?​

 

[Airspun]

Nah

 

[StefanV]

It would be amazing if Sinner could beat old declined veterans.

 

[Jonesy]

That is possible.

But depending on Nadal's form at RG it could be easier than beating Fed at 2021 Wimbledon.

Now beating Djokovic in his best form at his pet slam would be really a great feat.

 

[Milanez82]

He could beat Nadal in 1st round of Rolland Garros.
Not exactly an achievement.

 

[Razer]

Yes, why not ?

If Federer can be bageled at Wimbledon by a player, something which Nadal or Djokovic could never dream of, then why not ?

Impossible feats like beating Djokovic and Nadal at their pet slams will also happen in some years. Be patient.

 

[AO13]

Impossible feats like beating Djokovic and Nadal at their pet slams will also happen in some years. Be patient.

But this could be Rafa's final season, so it's last chance. Also it's all in, wouldn't be surprised if Nadal wins RG and day after announces retirement.

 

[AO13]

He could beat Nadal in 1st round of Rolland Garros.
Not exactly an achievement.

It is. Nadal lost to two men for his whole career. And if Sinner beats Novak at AO SF before that, it could be one of the greatest achievements ever, of course if Sinner gets the titles.

 

[Spartan6-1]

The likelihood of Sinner beating Novak at the AO is higher than him beating Rafa at the French.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Are you part of sinner hype machine ?.

 

[Milanez82]

It is. Nadal lost to two men for his whole career. And if Sinner beats Novak at AO SF before that, it could be one of the greatest achievements ever, of course if Sinner gets the titles.

To put things in perspective 32nd ranked player has 1220 points.

Any version of a well playing Nadal will accumulate those points during clay season in lead up to RG meaning he will be seeded and can't face Sinner in 1st rd.

If he plays those tournaments and struggles to gain 1220 points then beating him at RG is as formidable as it's beating Murray at the moment with his top 50 ranking.

Of course taking defending champ and current no 1 Djokovic will be a hell of an achievement just like it was when Alcaraz beat him at Wimbledon.

 

[Razer]

But this could be Rafa's final season, so it's last chance. Also it's all in, wouldn't be surprised if Nadal wins RG and day after announces retirement.

If Nadal wins RG then I am sure he wont announce retirement.

The Big 3 want to achieve as much as possible and only leave when they are sure they have nothing left.

 

[nolefam_2024]

To put things in perspective 32nd ranked player has 1220 points.

Any version of a well playing Nadal will accumulate those points during clay season in lead up to RG meaning he will be seeded and can't face Sinner in 1st rd.

If he plays those tournaments and struggles to gain 1220 points then beating him at RG is as formidable as it's beating Murray at the moment with his top 50 ranking.

Of course taking defending champ and current no 1 Djokovic will be a hell of an achievement just like it was when Alcaraz beat him at Wimbledon.

Djokovic was not number 1 during Wimbledon. Raz won it in queens.

Ofcourse what you said is right because it was sham ranking which pushed Raz to the top and by Miami this year the real ranking will occur.

 

[gqnelly]

If Jannik can continue improving his all court game, he can. If he can’t occasionally make his way to net and finish points…this is an area that will be exploited by the best players. His power baseline game is as good as anyone’s but his volleys are a bit like a greased elephant seal juggling a couple bowling balls.

 

[AO13]

If Nadal wins RG then I am sure he wont announce retirement.

The Big 3 want to achieve as much as possible and only leave when they are sure they have nothing left.

Yes, but I remember one year Nadal could barely walk after winning RG and he had to skip grass season all the way to USA season, so maybe it's his last hurrah.

What better way to end your career than after winning a slam. To be honest, I always thought Nadal would end it like that, but it could actually be RG 2025.​

 

[malbaker86]

he won't come close

 

[yash_chanda72]

Maybe, he has taken two sets from Novak in winbeldon, when he was "not in his prime", but still he has to play his absolute best tennis and hope novak doesn't do the same. Then hopefully he has 0.1% chance. But on clay Beating Rafa? Not a 0.000000001% chance. Relaistically impossible!

 

[ALCARAZWON]

Sinner is even weaker than Tsitsipas mentally at slams, so I doubt he's got anything significant in his future.
Whereas Carlos can win all 4 slams this year, except for Roland Garros if Rafa is healthy.

 

[mahatma]

Lol from not beating either of them in any slams to beating both of them in their best slams. Buy a lottery ticket if you are feeling that lucky for Sinner.

Only age beats these warriors or they themselves to each other

 

[DSH]

He could beat Nadal in 1st round of Rolland Garros.
Not exactly an achievement.

"Chicken legs" lost to an unknown last year in the first round of RG.
Nadal, almost 38 years old and with his battered body, could still defeat a player whose characteristics do not stand out on clay.

 

[DSH]

If Nadal wins RG then I am sure he wont announce retirement.

The Big 3 want to achieve as much as possible and only leave when they are sure they have nothing left.

Nadal is 95% Finnish, so his career is very close to ending and the Paris Olympics could be his last tournament.

 

[Spartan6-1]

The likelihood of Sinner beating Novak at the AO is higher than him beating Rafa at the French.

Dang that's crazy.

 

[AO13]

The first step is done. The Australian Open title will go to Sinner on sunday.

Beating Rafa at RG this year will transform Sinner into tennis God. He's halfway through it.

 

[tex123]

Medvedev is on the cusp of winning against Zv. Can Sinner find a way to beat Medvedev? He seems to struggle against the wall. I hope he does.

 

[BGod]

The closest to this scenario are the following examples and I mean in Semis-Finals only as that denotes the losing player being good enough to make it that far and in rhythm.

Safin defeated Sampras at the 2000 USO (and without Pete having a much harder SF as was the case the following year's Final)
Safin defeating Federer at 2005 AO

Nadal defeating Federer at 2008 Wimbledon and 2009 Australian Open.
Wilander defeating Lendl at 88 USO and 85 FO.

Lendl defeating champion McEnroe at 85 USO, champion Wilander at 86 French and 88 Wimbledon champion Edberg the year before on his worst surface. Keeping in mind he would defend his 86 FO title in 87 and twice defend his USO. So collectively this is a great 1-2-3 run on 3 different surfaces (even moreso back then).

Now I will also say Novak defeating Nadal at 2015 French is what it is followed up with Federer at Wimbledon and USO who didn't drop sets on route.

 

[aman92]

The first step is done. The Australian Open title will go to Sinner on sunday.

Beating Rafa at RG this year will transform Sinner into tennis God. He's halfway through it.

Beating a decrepit 38 year old Rafa surely proves Sinner's God worthy credentials

 

[BGod]

Beating a decrepit 38 year old Rafa surely proves Sinner's God worthy credentials

Yeah, unfortunately sometimes no opportunities exist for immortality.

Soderling achieved the feat beating prime Nadal in the middle of a 10 year run at the French. Such a win is unlikely to ever happen again but who knows. Nadal beat Federer at 2008 Wimbledon but as we know Federer would barely win 2009 then lose to Berdych and Tsonga before surviving early scares to win 2012. It's completely different. Just like Delpo beating Federer at 2009 USO which then saw Fed make just 1 more final.

Obvious points for Krajicek besting Sampras inbetween his 8 year run at Wimbledon and Wawrinka against Novak inbetween his 6 year run at AO but not quite the same right? Querrey an outside mention beating Novak in 2016 still not quite the same measure.

 

[AO13]

Beating a decrepit 38 year old Rafa surely proves Sinner's God worthy credentials

Yes, because no one else would be able to do so untill SF or F, other than Sinner or Djokovic. You'll see.