falstaff78
Hall of Fame
As I have learned, pre-match statistics mean the square root of feck-all when it comes to forecasting Djokovic's level. Like Federer in 2004-07, he has another place to take his game, where no one else can follow. Also, he seems to have a mental hold over everyone else. So these stats are mostly just for context.
Enjoy!
1. Overall level has been very similiar. Very similiar dominance ratio (1.46 vs. 1.48), very similiar stats on service games won (90% vs. 91%), return games won (35% vs. 32%), service points won (70% vs. 71%) and return points won (44% vs. 44%).
2. Djokovic faced stronger competition. Murray's opponents had a slightly higher average rank (31 vs 42) but Djokovic's opponents won more on hard courts in the last 12 months. Also Djokovic took out the moral second best player in the world and GOAT.
3. Murray with the slighter cleaner game. Same number of winners, like literally. Murray with fewer unforced errors and therefore better differential (+57 vs. +8). If you remove Djokovic's Simon match that difference basically goes away (+57 vs. +46).
4. About even on serve.
5. Very even on return.
6. Same level of fatigue across the tournament. Murray has spent an hour and a half extra on court. That's basically the difference in the lengths of the semifinals. So this could be a factor in a fourth or fifth set. Everything else is practically identical.
Enjoy!
1. Overall level has been very similiar. Very similiar dominance ratio (1.46 vs. 1.48), very similiar stats on service games won (90% vs. 91%), return games won (35% vs. 32%), service points won (70% vs. 71%) and return points won (44% vs. 44%).
2. Djokovic faced stronger competition. Murray's opponents had a slightly higher average rank (31 vs 42) but Djokovic's opponents won more on hard courts in the last 12 months. Also Djokovic took out the moral second best player in the world and GOAT.
3. Murray with the slighter cleaner game. Same number of winners, like literally. Murray with fewer unforced errors and therefore better differential (+57 vs. +8). If you remove Djokovic's Simon match that difference basically goes away (+57 vs. +46).
4. About even on serve.
- Djokovic a little better on getting his first serves in (64% vs. 61%), and on second serve winning (62% vs. 57%). Murray a little better on first serve winning (79% vs. 76%). But these effects more or less cancel out and overall both win 70-71% of points on serve.
- Both won 90-91% of their service games. Djokovic faced break points in fewer service games (17% vs. 24%). But he lost more of the games when he did face break points (53% vs. 40%). This was because he coughed up 2.1 BPs in each of those games, whereas Murray only offered up 1.53. That is, Djokovic is more prone to shockers.
- Both players saved 74% of breakpoints. And both were equally clutch when facing BPs (i.e. 4% higher than the rate they won other service points.)
5. Very even on return.
- Not much to say about the comparison of return stats. Murray won a few more return games (35% vs. 32%) but otherwise each stat is practically identical.
- Both had the same return point winning % (44% each), the same returning first serves (34% each) and second serves (61%).
- Murray generate BPs in 50% of return games vs. 47%, and converted slightly more of those games (70% vs. 67%).
6. Same level of fatigue across the tournament. Murray has spent an hour and a half extra on court. That's basically the difference in the lengths of the semifinals. So this could be a factor in a fourth or fifth set. Everything else is practically identical.
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