Cumulative stats in AO16 - Fed vs. Nole (SF)

[helterskelter]

@falstaff78 @FedFosterWallace

I agree that it is a (slight) advantage for Federer to face Djokovic in the semis rather than in the final. The underdog normally has more chance in an earlier round than in a later round. I was thinking pessimistically for Federer though: even with more chance, he's probably still the underdog. If he loses to Djokovic, I think it's better to lose in a final than in a semi-final. If he loses in a final, he has at least made the final. (Also, it would make a difference to be seeded #2 at Wimbledon. If that happened, Djokovic might play Murray in the semis and lose, and Federer might then beat Murray in the final. I would regard that as more likely than Federer himself beating Djokovic. I think he could still beat him at Wimbledon under the roof. I'm not sure he can still beat him on a sunny day).

 

[BeatlesFan]

While the OP's stats are impressive, none of it matters. I would have thought that Wimbledon 2014 and 2015 would have eloquently proven that. Or the USO 2015. In all those matches, Roger came into the match ON FIRE and the "in form" player of the tournament.

We all know what happened once he met Djokovic.

At 34, Roger is not going to defeat Nole on his favorite surface, no matter what form he is in. Even as a Fed fan, I would still expect Djoker to beat him even if Roger was up 6-2, 6-4, 4-1. I don't think Fed has the mentality anymore to defeat Novak in a slam-- nor the endurance.

 

[falstaff78]

While the OP's stats are impressive, none of it matters. I would have thought that Wimbledon 2014 and 2015 would have eloquently proven that. Or the USO 2015. In all those matches, Roger came into the match ON FIRE and the "in form" player of the tournament.

We all know what happened once he met Djokovic.

At 34, Roger is not going to defeat Nole on his favorite surface, no matter what form he is in. Even as a Fed fan, I would still expect Djoker to beat him even if Roger was up 6-2, 6-4, 4-1. I don't think Fed has the mentality anymore to defeat Novak in a slam-- nor the endurance.

Sadly it's very hard to argue against this. Each of the last three major meetings I've thought, ok THIS time he has it. Only to have my hopes dashed.

 

[sbengte]

Thanks. I did stop, but only for a few weeks!

Ha ha, glad that you forgave Federer's indiscretions

Good stats, but like someone above has said, what will be more interesting is to see the -ve delta in Fed's stats vs Djoker and the +ve delta in Djoker's stats vs Fed when compared to their respective stats vs the field. This has been obvious over the past couple of years and the three slam finals they played.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Great stats. Somewhat onesided because of what the pusher Simon did. I would say overall comparable.

 

[uscwang]

Great stats by the OP.
The key has always (almost) been and will likely still be Novak's 60ish winning percentage on Fed's 2nd serve. Novak does it to everybody, everytime. Win 60% on the opponents 2nd serve and the match.

 

[falstaff78]

Ha ha, glad that you forgave Federer's indiscretions

Actually he apologised!!

Good stats, but like someone above has said, what will be more interesting is to see the -ve delta in Fed's stats vs Djoker and the +ve delta in Djoker's stats vs Fed when compared to their respective stats vs the field. This has been obvious over the past couple of years and the three slam finals they played.

Thanks. I'll look into it!

 

[falstaff78]

Great stats by the OP.

Thanks!

 

[sportsfan1]

Nice stats. But as we have seen, those same Fed stats take a dive against Djokovic, certainly at slams. First serve percentage, double faults, returns made, break point conversion all come in significantly worse. So the head 2 head group of stats for those same categories will be more relevant and better indicators of the outcome of this match.

Edit: Just saw the posts above for the deltas, and +1 for that.

 

[ThunderSnap]

Awesome post OP. Love the stats+analysis. Keep it up!!

 

[Match_Point]

The only thing thats different are:

1) Novack was in form for US'15 and Wimb'15. His couple of games in this years AO has been terrible. I mean 100UEs? Dont let the score line of yesterdays match vs Kei fool you.

2) Semi-finals rather than finals and Feds yet to peak. If his BH clicks tomorrow, we're in for a cracker of a game. Close 3~4 sets. I doubt it will go to a 5.

 

[metsman]

The only thing thats different are:

1) Novack was in form for US'15 and Wimb'15. His couple of games in this years AO has been terrible. I mean 100UEs? Dont let the score line of yesterdays match vs Kei fool you.

2) Semi-finals rather than finals and Feds yet to peak. If his BH clicks tomorrow, we're in for a cracker of a game. Close 3~4 sets. I doubt it will go to a 5.

novak wasn't in great form for USO....still didn't matter.

 

[helterskelter]

While the OP's stats are impressive, none of it matters. I would have thought that Wimbledon 2014 and 2015 would have eloquently proven that. Or the USO 2015. In all those matches, Roger came into the match ON FIRE and the "in form" player of the tournament.

We all know what happened once he met Djokovic.

At 34, Roger is not going to defeat Nole on his favorite surface, no matter what form he is in. Even as a Fed fan, I would still expect Djoker to beat him even if Roger was up 6-2, 6-4, 4-1. I don't think Fed has the mentality anymore to defeat Novak in a slam-- nor the endurance.

This is probably true, although I suspect there's an element of not wanting to get too excited in case it all goes wrong in your thinking. (For example, while it's clear that Federer's stamina is not on a par with that of Djokovic, I think it's good enough that if he were leading 6-2 6-4 4-1 he would have a 95% chance of closing out the match. Perhaps more if the 4-1 lead were with two breaks).

One question: what is the relationship between Federer's mental toughness and his age? That he gets nervous because he knows he doesn't have many more chances? This doesn't seem to be so obvious to me. Some older players might get less nervous because they are mature enough to realize that they will recover from any temporary blow and it won't haunt them for ever. Especially an older player with as much experience of both triumph and defeat as Roger Federer.

 

[helterskelter]

@FedFosterWallace

One problem with a Djokovic/Federer semi-final is that it increases the risk of a Djokovic/Murray final. That would probably be a dreadfully boring match. They've played three finals here before and they were all poor. Last year's may have been the least poor. I thought the 2013 final was an absolute snoozefest. The 2011 final at least had the grace to be over relatively quickly, but it had no suspense about the outcome whatsoever. Their 2012 semi-final was quite a good match, but that still puts them at 1/4 (and many of their Slam matches at other Slams weren't thrillers either). Their playing styles are just too similar to make their matches particularly interesting.

Either Djokovic/Federer or Federer/Murray would be a better final. Perhaps we'll still get the second of those options.

 

[falstaff78]

Nice stats. ...+1 for that.

Thank you sir!

 

[falstaff78]

Awesome post OP. Love the stats+analysis. Keep it up!!

Many thanks!

 

[falstaff78]

I'd be curious to see stats on how much Federer's game drops from its tournament average, and Djokovic's rises from its tournament average

@dh003i @sbengte @SQA333

I ran the numbers for USO 2015, and highlighted the only numbers that matter

 

[Deleted member 743561]

@FedFosterWallace

One problem with a Djokovic/Federer semi-final is that it increases the risk of a Djokovic/Murray final. That would probably be a dreadfully boring match. They've played three finals here before and they were all poor. Last year's may have been the least poor. I thought the 2013 final was an absolute snoozefest. The 2011 final at least had the grace to be over relatively quickly, but it had no suspense about the outcome whatsoever. Their 2012 semi-final was quite a good match, but that still puts them at 1/4 (and many of their Slam matches at other Slams weren't thrillers either). Their playing styles are just too similar to make their matches particularly interesting.

Either Djokovic/Federer or Federer/Murray would be a better final. Perhaps we'll still get the second of those options.

Yeah... aside from stylistic preferences, I agree that the predictability of the outcomes has become a problem in some of these match-ups. The pro game has been in a strange state for the past few years. I'd enjoy a Fed-Murray final. Sneaking suspicion that Raonic may get through... but kind of thinking that Fed will represent the top half.