Djokovic and the race for 310/311

[helterskelter]

By securing the #1 ranking through the end of 2020, Djokovic guaranteed that he'll be on 302 weeks as #1 on 4 January 2021, the first week of the new season. [The ATP Cup starts on 1 January, but the points accrued there won't be a factor in the rankings until the week of 11 January, as it ends on 10 January].

Djokovic is mathematically guaranteed the #1 ranking for at least three more weeks: those of 11 January, 18 January, and 25 January. He can't be deposed until after the Australian Open at the earliest. This puts him at 305 weeks at #1 at a minimum, so five weeks behind Federer.

Despite losing in the semis, Djokovic actually gains this week on his two challengers, Nadal and Thiem, unless Thiem wins today. Djokovic got 200 points last year and 400 points this year, so he increases his tally by 200. Nadal got 400 points both years, so there's no change for him. Thiem got 800 points last year and is on 800 points this year, but he could gain 500 points today.

Has anyone done the math on what has to happen in Australia for Djokovic to lose the #1 ranking on 1 February?

If Djokovic is still #1 on 1 February, and so on 306 weeks at #1, he becomes a near lock to overtake Federer, as there aren't that many points in play in February, and Djokovic would equal Federer on 310 weeks on 1 March and overtake him on 8 March. Indian Wells only starts on 11 March.

 

[Cortana]

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[Bamoos]

Last I heard, Djokovic keeps his 2000 from Australian Open regardless of result.

 

[NoleFam]

I think if Nadal wins AO, that puts him 500 points behind Djokovic. By Thiem being a finalist last year, he can't gain as much so him winning it doesn't put Djokovic in danger of losing the ranking. That means Djokovic is basically going to keep #1 after AO no matter what scenario that plays out.

 

[Mainad]

 

[Cortana]

Points are still frozen. Don't see Djokovic losing his #1 ranking as long the ATP keeps it like that.

 

[Bamoos]

Points are still frozen. Don't see Djokovic losing his #1 ranking as long the ATP keeps it like that.

The weeks at number 1 should be frozen too in this case. Big asterisk.

 

[daggerman]

The weeks at number 1 should be frozen too in this case. Big asterisk.

OK, well you can append an asterisk all you want. That's not what will be reflected in the record books.

 

[ND-13]

The ranking has become shambles with COVID .


Djokovic got robbed from Wimbledon and the freeze in ranking impacted . I guess the only way to compensate for that is to give him 2000 points from AO 2020 even though he may lose early next year

It is also a farce Nadal keeps his USO 2019 points until USO 2021,when he deliberately avoided coming to USO to increase his chance of winning FO

And Fed is still top 5 not having touched a racket for a year

 

[BeatlesFan]

Look in the Djokovic News thread, someone did all the calculations there last week. He's basically a lock to pass Fed unless Thiem wins the ATP Cup, Doha, AO (can gain 800 points) and Dubai.

 

[Breakpointerer]

@Tenacity

 

[lucky13]

Look in the Djokovic News thread, someone did all the calculations there last week. He's basically a lock to pass Fed unless Thiem wins the ATP Cup, Doha, AO (can gain 1200 points) and Dubai.

tiem can not become no1 before March 8 even theoretically. if he wins the WTF he will still be 2400p behind nole and he can get "only" 800p if he wins the AO when he played the final this year.

 

[BeatlesFan]

tiem can not become no1 before March 8 even theoretically. if he wins the WTF he will still be 2400p behind nole and he can get "only" 800p if he wins the AO when he played the final this year.

Thanks for the correction, I should have said Thiem earned 1200 pts at the AO last year.

Here's the graphic the Nole News thread had last week:

 

[Tenacity]

@Tenacity

so good

 

[Bamoos]

Will be a bit embarrassing to trickle past the record with half your points not having been earned in the past 12 months.

Any desperate minor record to claim as joining club 20 looks out of reach for N0-Vax

 

[lucky13]

Thanks for the correction, I should have said Thiem earned 1200 pts at the AO last year.

Here's the graphic the Nole News thread had last week:

i think rafa can not get points in dubai because it is in the same week as acapulco where he gets maximum 500p.

 

[Tenacity]

Will be a bit embarrassing to trickle past the record with half your points not having been earned in the past 12 months.

Any desperate minor record to claim as joining club 20 looks out of reach for N0-Vax

Daaamn those are some big scars Novak has left on you.

 

[Bamoos]

Daaamn those are some big scars Novak has left on you.

Novak fans getting desperate. Any good tennis analyst will know the record won’t be legit unless he clears it by a huge amount. Stopping below say 350 won’t cut it with the help ATP has given him.

 

[CYGS]

Novak fans getting desperate. Any good tennis analyst will know the record won’t be legit unless he clears it by a huge amount. Stopping below say 350 won’t cut it with the help ATP has given him.

Okay none of Federer's records is legit. That's good to know.

 

[Milanez82]

Gotta feel bad for Federer for losing this one big record, since it seemed a lock to last for a very long time

 

[Justice Underworld]

Novak fans getting desperate. Any good tennis analyst will know the record won’t be legit unless he clears it by a huge amount. Stopping below say 350 won’t cut it with the help ATP has given him.

Your fave only has 209 weeks. He's got an even bigger hurdle to clear.

 

[Mivic]

Novak fans getting desperate. Any good tennis analyst will know the record won’t be legit unless he clears it by a huge amount. Stopping below say 350 won’t cut it with the help ATP has given him.

Djokovic would have already broken the record by now if not for COVID and you know it.

 

[lucky13]

Djokovic would have already broken the record by now if not for COVID and you know it.

and he would have had a bigger points lead if ATP did not freeze points at all, ie if only this year's points were counted.

it is no logic that only his AO would count for only (52-22) 30 weeks and rafas USO would count for (2x52-22) 82 weeks. all points must be counted at least 52 weeks which is a rule (and now it became longer due to covid), no reason that only nole's best period is counted in just 30 weeks.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Novak fans getting desperate. Any good tennis analyst will know the record won’t be legit unless he clears it by a huge amount. Stopping below say 350 won’t cut it with the help ATP has given him.

What nonsense. If Djokovic passes Fed by even one week, it's a totally legit record.

 

[Bamoos]

What nonsense. If Djokovic passes Fed by even one week, it's a totally legit record.

4000 free points from ATP says otherwise. Federer and Sampras didn’t need weeks at number 1 gifted to them.