Do you think Sinner will succeed more in Bo3 or Bo5 and why?

[dking68]

Sinner was the youngest player to make QF of all 4 slams since Djokovic in 2008 in 2022 before Carlos and was the first player born in the 2000s to do so. He had chances to win Wimbledon 2022 and USO 2022, had great chance to make his first slam final at AO 2023. Finally wins AO 2024. Do you think he will be more successful in best of threes or best of fives and why?


He has only won 1 masters tournament, and won it at a very late age compared to most legends - won it days before turning 22.

He did not make a masters final in 2022. In 2023 he lost meekly to Medvedev and had some early exits, retirements and non- participations.

Why did it take so long for Sinner? And months after, he has finally won his first slam.

For me personally - the longer tennis format fits Sinner better. I notice he breaks serve a lot and generates a lot of break points in the best of fives and his dominance ratio points strongly to it - both in 2023 and 2024. Yes, he has had some bad losses in the best of fives, but I believe it fits his powerful baseline game more. If he continues to improve his conditioning, he’ll be the man to beat in best of fives in years to come

Dominance ratio vs his opponents in 2023

Sinner vs Tsitsipas - DR of 1.06, statistically the better player, but lost. Generated double the amount of break points his opponent generated. Very ineffective, painful loss for Sinner and should’ve defeated him in 3/4 sets

Sinner vs Altmaier - His worst loss in the 2023 season. Generated 21 break points vs 9 break points for his opponent and he lost! DR of 1.06, better player but lost. Should’ve won in 3 sets

Sinner vs Djokovic - DR of 0.97. Almost equal to Djokovic, failed on break points. Easily could’ve gone Sinners way

Sinner vs Zverev - DR of 0.91. Was injured in this match. Who knows how it would’ve gone if he was fully fit

 

[MichaelNadal]

Unless something drastic happens he should definitely win at least 5-8 slams in his career.

 

[dking68]

Unless something drastic happens he should definitely win at least 5-8 slams in his career.

I think so too but I have a feeling he’s going to have more success in slams than Masters events

 

[Fabresque]

I think so too but I have a feeling he’s going to have more success in slams than Masters events

That’s pretty hard to do. There’s over double the amount of masters than slams, naturally top players will win more of them than the slams. Alcaraz has 4 compared to his 2 slams.

But that also doesn’t prove that Alcaraz is better at BO3, and it won’t prove that Sinner is either.

 

[dking68]

@Rovesciarete whats your take on this?

 

[Rovesciarete]

You win and lose tight matches. I was never worried about his five set record as Sinner was improving steadily in pretty much every relevant area and he was losing fighting hard!

Personally his three set loss to Novak has been greatly undervalued. Jannik has repeated time and time again that he felt closer than in the five setter the year before and was almost derided for it.

I have already written that Sinner should be especially suited for slams. He is a great tennis player with devastating linear power which can really rush and move people around. Increasingly he can win points quickly and efficiently with the serve or at the net. Few can return like him and drag them into long rallies where his shots can be weighty punches.

Add a great mentality, fighting spirit, increasing athleticism and particular body suited to endure. Now you have a competitor almost built to do well in the long run in long matches…

 

[dking68]

You win and lose tight matches. I was never worried about his five set record as Sinner was improving steadily in pretty much every relevant area and he was losing fighting hard!

What your verdict? Better in bo3 or bo5?

 

[Pheasant]

We need to define better. My guess here is that it’s winning a higher percentage of titles. Example. If he wins 1 slam in 4 tries this year and 2 Masters in 7 tries, then .286 > .250. Thus, that’d make him better at Masters

This being said, I’d say he will be best at ATP 500 events(weaker draws), followed by slams, then followed by Masters 1000 events. Sinner will be easier to upset in a Best of 3 setup, with all things being equal.

 

[dking68]

We need to define better. My guess here is that it’s winning a higher percentage of titles. Example. If he wins 1 slam in 4 tries this year and 2 Masters in 7 tries, then .286 > .250. Thus, that’d make him better at Masters

This being said, I’d say he will be best at ATP 500 events(weaker draws), followed by slams, then followed by Masters 1000 events. Sinner will be easier to upset in a Best of 3 setup, with all things being equal.

I think he’ll win any 500 easily. He’s a top three player and he’ll be the top seed at all 500s from now on. Slams coming second makes sense. Masters, I think he’ll do well but I think he’ll be stronger at slams

 

[ActualTennisPlayer]

Sinner has shown his excellence at best of 3 events. Just look at his indoor hard court run last year. And the competition at last years ATP finals, China open, Vienna open and Davis cup is comparable to what he would face at a master 1000.

Sinner still has some question marks whether he can play multiple 5 setters at slams. He hasn’t proven that to us yet.

 

[ChrisRF]

Best of 5 IMO, for a very simple reason: He will be the best tennis player in the world for quite some while (either already starting now or at least after Djokovic is finally gone). And the best player is always less likely to be beaten if the distance is longer.

 

[Rovesciarete]

What your verdict? Better in bo3 or bo5?

Better for the reasons @ChrisRF mentioned…

 

[dking68]

Best of 5 IMO, for a very simple reason: He will be the best tennis player in the world for quite some while (either already starting now or at least after Djokovic is finally gone). And the best player is always less likely to be beaten if the distance is longer.

I agree but I think the longer format fits Sinner better. He returns better as the match goes longer

 

[MeatTornado]

He sure seems to have the legs to do better than others over 5 sets

 

[NeutralFan]

I certainly want him to succeed more in bo5 . I couldn't care less about BO3 . He should have slam first approach and leave BO3 for the teeth.

 

[ghostofMecir]

Best of 5 IMO, for a very simple reason: He will be the best tennis player in the world for quite some while (either already starting now or at least after Djokovic is finally gone). And the best player is always less likely to be beaten if the distance is longer.

This.