Normally I would agree with said assessment, but Nadal's the kinda guy who can get bageled/breadsticked the first set and still come back. Even if he were down 0-2 in sets and down 0-5 in the 3rd set, he'd still have the audacity to think he has the chance to come back and win.
What Fed needs to do is just bagel bagel bagel him, as in, crush Nadal--give him no hope whatsoever. He can't give Nadal the light of day because that's all he needs and he's proven that, but Fed's also proven he's capable of laying down the hammer and he needs to smack that monkey boy to kingdom come. Here's hopin' for a bagel fest
P.S. obviously Fed's not gonna bagel him 3 times, but what I meant is he has to play with that mindset.