As of today, Federer is having 7290 points . Federer has to defend the following points 500 - Canada Masters 35 - Cincinati (chance for improvement) 1000 - US Open 250 - Tokyo 500 - Madrid 250 - Basel 0 - Paris Masters (can improve if he plays) 750 - Sanghai Total : 3285 points He has to win a lot just to defend his points. Chance for improvement is only in Cincinati and Paris. This year he has played only 1 non-masters tournament i.e Dubai and scheduled to play 2 more. He missed Doha and Halle. Points are counted upto 5 non-masters/non-slams tourneys. Now lets look at main competitor Nadal. He has 5225 points. He has to defend Canada - 75 Cincinati - 125 US Open - 250 Stockholm - 20 Madrid - 125 Paris - 0 Sanghai - 200 Total : 795 points He can improve in all his tournaments. He is scheduled to play clay court tournament Stuttgart and get points. He is targetting to be No. 1 by year end. What do you say? For the first time in 3 years, we can see a contest for No. 1.