Federer will win Australian Open 2013

madmanfool

madmanfool

Semi-Pro
It's quite simple really. When Nadal doesn't play or loses early (before KF) Federer goes on to win the slam. The odds speak for themself ;)

2005 Wimbledon: Nadal R2 - Federer Wins
2005 Us open: Nadal R3 - Federer Wins
2006 Aus open: Nadal DNP - Federer Wins
2007 Us Open: Nadal R4 - Federer Wins
2009 Roland Garros: Nadal R4 - Federer Wins
2009 Wimbledon: Nadal DNP - Federer Wins
2012 Wimbledon: Nadal R2 - Federer Wins
2012 Us Open: Nadal DNP - Federer QF

Unfortunately the streak is broken at the last slam. But still Federer makes the most of his opportunities when Nadal is out. He destined to win the Aus Open :)
 
P

Prisoner of Birth

Banned
madmanfool said:
It's quite simple really. When Nadal doesn't play or loses early (before KF) Federer goes on to win the slam. The odds speak for themself ;)

2005 Wimbledon: Nadal R2 - Federer Wins
2005 Us open: Nadal R3 - Federer Wins
2006 Aus open: Nadal DNP - Federer Wins
2007 Us Open: Nadal R4 - Federer Wins
2009 Roland Garros: Nadal R4 - Federer Wins
2009 Wimbledon: Nadal DNP - Federer Wins
2012 Wimbledon: Nadal R2 - Federer Wins
2012 Us Open: Nadal DNP - Federer QF

Unfortunately the streak is broken at the last slam. But still Federer makes the most of his opportunities when Nadal is out. He destined to win the Aus Open :)
Click to expand...

What's a KF?
 
The Meat

The Meat

Hall of Fame
Federer to play Murray in the semis, if he wins he plays Djokovic in the finals. Might lose 6-7, 6-7, 6-7. Being realistic, I don't see him winning unless Murray somehow is drawn into Djokovic's side and knocks him out and gets tired in the the process.
 
Clarky21

Clarky21

Banned
No way. Fed is not beating Eeyore at the AO, and since he will have to beat him to win it, things don't look too good for Fed.
 
Fiji

Fiji

Legend
madmanfool said:
It's quite simple really. When Nadal doesn't play or loses early (before KF) Federer goes on to win the slam. The odds speak for themself ;)

2005 Wimbledon: Nadal R2 - Federer Wins
2005 Us open: Nadal R3 - Federer Wins
2006 Aus open: Nadal DNP - Federer Wins
2007 Us Open: Nadal R4 - Federer Wins
2009 Roland Garros: Nadal R4 - Federer Wins
2009 Wimbledon: Nadal DNP - Federer Wins
2012 Wimbledon: Nadal R2 - Federer Wins
2012 Us Open: Nadal DNP - Federer QF

Unfortunately the streak is broken at the last slam. But still Federer makes the most of his opportunities when Nadal is out. He destined to win the Aus Open :)
Click to expand...

The streak was broken by Murray. Will Murray win the AO? :lol:
 
P

Prisoner of Birth

Banned
Clarky21 said:
No way. Fed is not beating Eeyore at the AO, and since he will have to beat him to win it, things don't look too good for Fed.
Click to expand...

Do you just copy/paste the same responses over and over again? Seriously, in the past 3-4 months all I've seen you post is

"Eeyore/Cvac will win every match and every Grand Slam he plays."

"Nadal is done."

"Nadal is not coming back."

"Nadal is retired."

"Nadal is over."

"Nadal is dogfood."

"Eeyore will end up being GOAT."

"Federer is done."

"Nadal is finished."

"Eeyore, Cvac, burp, cough, phlegm."

"AAASRRRGGGGGHHHHHH!!! WAAAHHH! WAAAAHHHHHH!"

And that's it.

You must be a pain to be around.
 
madmanfool

madmanfool

Semi-Pro
Fiji said:
The streak was broken by Murray. Will Murray win the AO? :lol:
Click to expand...

I think that was Berdych, not Murray.

Funny btw how many people give me a serious answer about how Roger's not going to win. I guess I had to use more smilies. Basically I wanted to point out the stat more than anything else.
 
Fiji

Fiji

Legend
madmanfool said:
I think that was Berdych, not Murray.

Funny btw how many people give me a serious answer about how Roger's not going to win. I guess I had to use more smilies. Basically I wanted to point out the stat more than anything else.
Click to expand...

But Murray won the USO.
 
Z

zam88

Professional
madmanfool - how much money are you putting on Federer to win the 2013 Australian Open given this information?

it appears he is currently about 4.5 or 5 to 1 to win

I assume since you're making such a strong position that you are going to back it up with a good sized wager, no?
 
L

LittleTinGoddess

New User
It's a matter of chance, really. God-Mode Federer has been showing up a few times every year for the past few years. If Federer is lucky enough go on God Mode once he hits the final rounds of the tournament, then he's guaranteed to win, even if the other big players are playing at their best level.
 
Z

zam88

Professional
LittleTinGoddess said:
It's a matter of chance, really. God-Mode Federer has been showing up a few times every year for the past few years. If Federer is lucky enough go on God Mode once he hits the final rounds of the tournament, then he's guaranteed to win, even if the other big players are playing at their best level.
Click to expand...


this is pretty accurrate.

If he shows up beasting at the right time, it's definitely possible.

What's missing from 2006 Federer is mostly consistency.


We've seen tournaments where Feds looked AWESOME against some weak-ass competition only to come out just crazy flat against the next guy... like in the 2012 USO.

It's almost like you want to see him kind of screw up early on and have some donkey take him to 5 sets (like Wimbledon 12 or AO '10) and then him be priming for the QF/SF/F.. rather than bagel a bunch of suckas early and then come out flat in the end.
 
underground

underground

G.O.A.T.
To make a full comparison from since Nadal played his first GS (ironically it's 2003 Wimbledon, Fed's first title).

2003 Wimbledon 3R - Fed won
2003 US Open 2R - Fed lost
2004 French Open DNP - Fed lost
2004 Wimbledon DNP - Fed won
2004 Australian Open 3R - Fed won
2004 US Open 2R - Fed won
2005 Australian Open 4R - Fed lost
2005 Wimbledon Nadal R2 - Federer won
2005 US Open Nadal R3 - Federer won
2006 Australian open Nadal DNP - Federer won
2007 US Open Nadal R4 - Federer won
2009 French Open Nadal R4 - Federer won
2009 Wimbledon Nadal DNP - Federer won
2012 Wimbledon Nadal R2 - Federer won
2012 Us Open: Nadal DNP - Federer lost

So when Nadal doesn't appear in the QF, Fed wins 11-4 (73%). Granted though that Nadal's mental edge over Fed at slams would have only started to appear since 2005 French Open, OP's sample size is legit as well, that would make it even higher: 7-1 (87.5%)


zam88 said:
this is pretty accurrate.

If he shows up beasting at the right time, it's definitely possible.

What's missing from 2006 Federer is mostly consistency.


We've seen tournaments where Feds looked AWESOME against some weak-ass competition only to come out just crazy flat against the next guy... like in the 2012 USO.

It's almost like you want to see him kind of screw up early on and have some donkey take him to 5 sets (like Wimbledon 12 or AO '10) and then him be priming for the QF/SF/F.. rather than bagel a bunch of suckas early and then come out flat in the end.
Click to expand...

Very true. I've always insisted that in 2012 Federer's best tournament was Cincinnati, not Wimbledon, because Federer's level was much higher and dominant at Cinci, not being broken serve throughout the whole tournament. Other than the 1st set against Wawrinka, Fed brought his A game to all the matches, and even then he won the tiebreaker 7-4 I think.
 
sdont

sdont

Legend
Interesting how the OP notes that "the streak is broken" yet does not take this information into account.
 
cork_screw

cork_screw

Hall of Fame
madmanfool said:
It's quite simple really. When Nadal doesn't play or loses early (before KF) Federer goes on to win the slam. The odds speak for themself ;)

2005 Wimbledon: Nadal R2 - Federer Wins
2005 Us open: Nadal R3 - Federer Wins
2006 Aus open: Nadal DNP - Federer Wins
2007 Us Open: Nadal R4 - Federer Wins
2009 Roland Garros: Nadal R4 - Federer Wins
2009 Wimbledon: Nadal DNP - Federer Wins
2012 Wimbledon: Nadal R2 - Federer Wins
2012 Us Open: Nadal DNP - Federer QF

Unfortunately the streak is broken at the last slam. But still Federer makes the most of his opportunities when Nadal is out. He destined to win the Aus Open :)
Click to expand...

Hmmm... I would have said this 4 years ago, when it looked like Fed was owning Djokovic. Then djokovic started to get him back and then he started to own Murray. Now murray is getting him back, winning his previous 2 matches - easily. So now I don't know what to think and it seems to me that fed might be on the bottom of those three. But he does have the heart and mentality of a champion. And that carries him through a lot of matches that maybe he shouldn't have comeback to win or beat players who shouldn't have beaten (roddick wimbledon 2004). So I hope he gets a few more and this would be nice. But for the time being It's Djok, Murray then Fed.
 
madmanfool

madmanfool

Semi-Pro
sdont said:
Interesting how the OP notes that "the streak is broken" yet does not take this information into account.
Click to expand...

What makes you say that? My next sentence reads "But still Federer makes the most of his opportunities when Nadal is out"; Wouldn't you say winning 7 out 8 is pretty good?
 
P

Prisoner of Birth

Banned
Philipp Kohlscheriber #1 said:
Murray will play Djokovic in the final after Murray beats Federer and then Federer will win French and Wimbledon and Nadal will win Us openn
Click to expand...

tumblr_m2yfy2Ke4I1rs311go2_500.jpg
 
Towser83

Towser83

G.O.A.T.
The Meat said:
Federer to play Murray in the semis, if he wins he plays Djokovic in the finals. Might lose 6-7, 6-7, 6-7. Being realistic, I don't see him winning unless Murray somehow is drawn into Djokovic's side and knocks him out and gets tired in the the process.
Click to expand...

Given that Djokovic beat Nadal after getting tired in a 5 hour match with Murray, I don't think even a tired Nole is going to lose his advantage. Federer is not even a player that will draw you into long rallies like Nadal.
 
nadal_GOAT_king

nadal_GOAT_king

Rookie
Nope. I won't even bet on him beating Murray, never mind Djokovic.

Now that we've had threads on Fed winning RG, Australian... next up will be "Fed will win CYGS"
 
The Meat

The Meat

Hall of Fame
Towser83 said:
Given that Djokovic beat Nadal after getting tired in a 5 hour match with Murray, I don't think even a tired Nole is going to lose his advantage. Federer is not even a player that will draw you into long rallies like Nadal.
Click to expand...

I was talking about Murray being tired.
 
veroniquem

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
Gonzo_style said:
Believe me, Djokovic would not be tired this time, if they plays in the final
Click to expand...


The only reason Djoko got tired at USO is because he had no day off (did he play 3 or 4 days in a row? ) due to the abominable super Saturday business. Hopefully nothing of the sort will happen at AO.
 
P

Prisoner of Birth

Banned
Anyway, on topic, a Semifinal is a good performance by Federer. A final is extremely good. But it's unreasonable to expect him to win unless either Murray or Djokovic or both are upset.
 
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