Federer's Toughest Draws

Devin

Semi-Pro
What were Federer's toughest slam draws en route to a slam victory?

I feel like it would be between AO 2004 (Hewitt, Nalbandian, Ferrero, and Safin), Wimbledon 2004 (Johansson, Karlovic, Hewitt, Grosjean, Roddick), and AO 2017 (Berdych, Nishikori, Wawrinka, and Nadal).

At the AO in 2004, his toughest opponent was Nalbandian by a decent margin. Federer also had to prove in that slam that he would be able to get the best of Hewitt for once, and after a slow start (losing the first set), he was able to pull away with a victory. Ferrero played well for two sets out of the match, and while Safin was not at his best in the final, he made an extraordinary effort to get there, beating Agassi and Roddick in two of his career best performances. Safin was definitely able to cause Federer problems with his combination of powerful ballstriking and good movement.

Wimbledon 2004 seems to be underrated. He faced several players who had a great record on grass. 2004 had perhaps Hewitt's best form on grass. He played fine in the first set of the QF except perhaps not getting enough first serves in. He won the second set with good play, although Federer's form dipped during the tiebreak. Although his form dropped in the third set, he was able to make the fourth set somewhat competitive. Roddick had Federer on his heels in the final, winning the first set and being up a break in the third set.

The 2017 AO draw was very difficult, having to screech by many good players after taking six months off. That was finished by having to defeat someone who Federer had not beaten in a slam for 10 years (Wimbledon 2017). It is something that will forever be in the history books.

Honorable mention to AO 2005. If Federer had gotten past Safin, it may have gone down as Federer's best AO win. He would've had to beat Suzuki (who actually played very well in the match), Agassi (4-time champion), Safin (at his peak), and Hewitt (at his best AO form).

His RG 2009 victory gets a little bit underrated because he had to beat Del Potro en route to the title. Del Potro played at a similar level or better than Wawrinka did when he beat Djokovic to win the 2015 RG title. Soderling had made his way to the final beating Nadal in the process, but Federer beat him forehand-to-forehand and with quite a few exquisite forehand drop shots. His serving was also quite good. However, I can't say that this was his toughest draw.

It is difficult to decide Federer's best USO draw. I feel like there is a case for each year in all honesty. In 2004, he had to beat Agassi and Henman. Hewitt did not play well in the final, but Henman had beaten Federer in Rotterdam earlier that year and could still work his game on the faster courts. In 2005, he had to face Agassi and Hewitt back to back. He also had to deal with Kiefer, who was able to take a set off of Federer (like he also did at Wimbledon). He had to face Blake and Roddick in 2006. Blake played fine in the quarterfinal and was putting Federer under pressure in certain moments, and Roddick also took a set off of Federer, but I think he played better in the 2007 QF. 2007 involved having to beat Lopez, young Isner, Roddick, Davydenko, and Djokovic. Lopez and Roddick especially put up memorable performances against Federer. Djokovic had beaten Federer in Canada, but he lost in straight sets (he should've won the first though). In 2008, he had to beat Andreev and Djokovic. Andreev was a tough matchup for Federer due to the heavy spin that he hits with, and Djokovic had made a name for himself by winning the AO in great form that year. Murray played how he normally does at AO finals, however. I don't think Andreev would have been such a matchup issue for peak Federer though.

So, out of those five years, his toughest draw was probably between 2007 and 2005.

Hamburg 2004 was probably one of Federer's toughest draws at a Masters event. He had to beat several good clay court players (Lapentti, Gaudio, Gonzalez), Hewitt, and the best clay court player that year, Coria. It is definitely underrated overall.

Wimbledon 2006 had potential to be a tough slam draw. Many of the players Federer faced had beaten him prior to the event, but Federer made short work of all of them. Ancic could have challenged Federer in the quarterfinals by taking a set, but he was unlucky to run into one of the best possible versions of Federer.

It's difficult to decide what his toughest TMC/WTF draw was. I don't remember all of them too well. I might give it to 2003 because he had to beat Agassi, Ferrero who had made the USO final that year, Roddick who won the USO that year, and get his first victory over Nalbandian to win that title. I can also see arguments for 2010, 2004, and 2007 however. I remember that Federer actually lost to Gonzalez in the round robin stages of the 2007 TMC, but I'm not sure if Federer faced opponents that were more challenging than those that he faced in 2004 or 2010 after that. In 2004, Hewitt played well in the final and did not do much wrong except being simply outplayed, and Safin was gradually building up into the great form that would topple Federer at the AO in 2005. In 2010, he had to beat Djokovic who played well from the forehand wing in that match and Nadal, who was probably showing some of his best indoor tennis form.

Thoughts?
 

BVSlam

Professional
How easy or tough a draw is, is so difficult to decide. Even when someone ends up playing all the higher seeds, those seeds may play a terrible match and then what does the seeding matter? Then there is personal playing level vs. the level of the opponent. In what way is someone off his game without the opponent's direct influence? Or is the opponent playing so well that it causes problems for the player? And then there is always the matter of matchups, sometimes a tough opponent on paper is easier for one player than the other.

In Federer's case, AO 2017 is a tough draw imo, not just because of the opponents on paper and the fact he had six months without play and was 35, but his opponents also mostly played well in their matches. But even here it's vague, did Nadal play as well as he can? Did Berdych? How much of that was due to Fed's game?

A relatively easy draw was something like AO 2018. Without playing amazingly well he rolled through the tournament because his opponents weren't high seeded and weren't playing that well in the matches either. As soon as Cilic started hitting better, he took two sets from Fed, where it showed his game when pushed dropped. But then again, it's a five-set final against a former USO winner and two-time slam finalist. How easy it in on paper, despite what happened at Wimbledon?

So I vote for the option: every slam title with any draw counts. You just never know how opponents end up playing, seeding and potential danger on paper don't always tell the whole story. RG 2009 wasn't tough on paper but he lost six sets to win it, almost lost once and was potentially close a second time. Sure, he didn't play his best all tournament, but does that make the draw easy? His opponents played well to be honest.
 

Rogfan

Professional
Sometimes the draw opens up but by seeding I don’t remember an easy draw at all. Balanced to say the best in the past couple of years.
 

RS

Bionic Poster
Miami 2017-Beat Berdych and Kyrgios in very tough matches and had to save MPs vs Berdych . The Kyrgios match among the best of 2017 . Beat Nadal and Agut and Del Potro who were all very worthy opponents.

Cincy 2015-He beat Djokovic and Murray back to back and both played good tennis without even dropping a serve at any point in the whole event.

Wimbeldon 2009-Beat Roddick in his peak in the final while being in very good form but not at his very best. He also beat Haas who took out Djokovic twice in that grass seasons as well as beating Karlovic who had not been broken and Soderling who had just came off a RG final loss.

Wimbeldon 2012-Beat Murray in his best form on grass in the final. Beat a decent Djokovic in the SF and came back from 2 sets down early in the tourney to Julian and battled back issues in his 4R match. This regained him the number 1 ranking.
Other good draws

Wimbeldon 2007-Held of a peak Nadal in possibly a top 3 career performance on grass in a epic 5 setter. Not the strongest before the final but the final needs to be mentioned. Nadal was not far off his Wimbledon 2008 final form here at all.

Other tough draws
Canada 2006
Cincy 2005
Cincy 2009
Miami 2005
Shanghai 2017
Istanbul 2015
Dubai 2012
Halle 2006
I mentioned others along with your list.
 
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Lew II

G.O.A.T.
Highest ELO of players beat: 2012 Wimbledon

Highest ranking of players beat (geometric mean): 2007 Wimbledon

My answer: 2012 Wimbledon (2 ATGs, 6 time champions of the tournament)

edit: highest ranking ---> 2010 AO 16.2
 
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augustobt

Legend
The Master's Cup 2003.

Federer was drawn into a group where he never won a single match against two players of the group. And he had a 2-4 H2H with the third one. Agassi, who had just won the Australian Open. Nalbandian, who defeated him in both of the HC majors of the season and Ferrero who just came from the USO Final. In the SF? Roddick who actually had just won the previous encounter with Rog and had just won the USO.

He had some balls to win that.
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
Highest ELO of players beat: 2012 Wimbledon

Highest ranking of players beat (geometric mean): 2007 Wimbledon

My answer: 2012 Wimbledon (2 ATGs, 6 time champions of the tournament)
I agree with this analysis. 2012 Wimbledon and 2007 Wimbledon represent the toughest draws he ever faced, based on geometric means of ranking and ELO.
 

Third Serve

Talk Tennis Guru
AO 2017, but not just because of the draw, but the position he was in. I don't think you can expect anyone to get through an already tough draw (4 Top 10 players, and it could have been 5 had Murray not lost early) at 35 years old and having not played a professional match since Wimbledon the previous year due to injury. Yet Federer did it. Sure, he dropped a ton of sets and he was nowhere close to his best, but he did it.

If we're counting just the draw, then my pick might have to be Wimbledon 2012. He beat 2012 Djokovic and Murray consecutively. I think Murray put up a bit of a better fight, but both were tough opponents.
 

Steve0904

Talk Tennis Guru
The Master's Cup 2003.

Federer was drawn into a group where he never won a single match against two players of the group. And he had a 2-4 H2H with the third one. Agassi, who had just won the Australian Open. Nalbandian, who defeated him in both of the HC majors of the season and Ferrero who just came from the USO Final. In the SF? Roddick who actually had just won the previous encounter with Rog and had just won the USO.

He had some balls to win that.

And then in the final he did this:

 

augustobt

Legend
Fancy way of saying, “I haven’t got a clue since I never watched tennis then and hadn’t even heard of Roger Federer.” ;)

You can toss this asinine “geometric ranking” and “ELO” nonsense into the rubbish bin. Imagine at a cocktail party approaching a fellow tennis fan and saying, “what did you think of Rafa’s 12th FO based on ELO and geometric ranking!?” That crap exists in the minds of 4 people worldwide, all of them camped here.
It's always that, always the same posters with the same idiotic agenda behind. Pathetic.
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
The whole OP is spectacularly hilarious, but I've completely lost it at "he had to deal with Kiefer" and "he had to face Blake and Roddick" parts.:-D:-D:laughing::laughing:
Blake and Roddick would've been an impossible draw for Nadal on a faster surface LMAO.

I mean Blake alone would be enough.
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
Wimbeldon 2007-Held of a peak Nadal in possibly a top 3 career performance in grass in a epic 5 setter. Not the strongest before the final but the final needs to be mentioned. Nadal was not far off his Wimbledon 2008 final form here at all.

nadal was at his 2008 wim final form in the wim 2007 final.
better off the ground in 2007 wim final and better serving in the 2008 final.
 

RS

Bionic Poster
nadal was at his 2008 wim final form in the wim 2007 final.
better off the ground in 2007 wim final and better serving in the 2008 final.
Wimbeldon 2007/2008 finals vs Federer and the Wimbeldon 2008 QF vs Murray his top 3 performances on grass I think.
a small difference with both anyway I feel he was a tad more confident in Wimbeldon 2008 final which was noticeable in the last set.
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
Wimbeldon 2007/2008 finals vs Federer and the Wimbeldon 2008 QF vs Murray his top 3 performances on grass I think.
a small difference with both anyway I feel he was a tad more confident in Wimbeldon 2008 final which was noticeable in the last set.

agree with regard to 3 best grass matches
I don't agree with the overall assessment of Wim 07 vs Wim 08 final, but fair enough.
 
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Towny

Hall of Fame
Depends what you mean by tough draw. Highest level single opponent or multiple difficult opponents? Or some combination.

In terms of slams, Wimbledon 2007 Nadal was maybe the toughest single opponent he beat en-route to a win. In terms of a string of difficult opponents, AO 04 and AO 17 would be my picks. Maybe USO 07 as well.

Wimbledon 2012 having Djokovic and Murray back to back deserves a mention too (they have won every Wimbledon title since 2011 that Federer hasn't won)
 
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metsman

G.O.A.T.
Probably 04 Wimby. Hewitt and Roddick were close to/at their bests and he also played Johansson and Grosjean with Karlovic in there for good measure. He faced a slate of quality opponents in 05 Wimby too (Kiefer, Gonzo, Ferrero, Hewitt, Roddick), but none of them played great. 17 AO was tough, but I don't think Stan and Nadal were as good as 04 Hewitt/Roddick on grass. Same with 12 Wimby. 09 Wimby comes close, but there wasn't a 2nd opponent as good as Hewitt, but a slate of quality guys (Kohly, Soderling, Karlovic, Haas, Roddick). Same with 09 RG with no 2nd great opponent behind Delpo but still a deep draw (Acusaso, PHM, Monfils, Haas, Delpo, Soderling) although some of those were messes of his own making.

05/07 USO is an underrated draw too. Faced a lot of quality players in those, just made easier work of them than in 09 because he was better.
 
Fedr's draws in 2006 for his 3 Slam wins from 1/8 onwards:
2006 AO from 1/8 Haas; QF Davydenko, SF Kiefer, F Baghdatis

2006 Wimbledon 1/8 Berdych; QF Ancic; SF Bjorkman; F baby Nadal

2006 USO 1/8 Gicquel; QF Blake; SF Davydenko; F Roddick.

I mean c'mon...:oops:o_O:censored:
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
At AO: 2004 and 2017

At Wimb: 2004, 2007, 2009 and 2012.

At the USO: 2004, 2005 and 2007.

Even his 2009 FO draw wasn't exactly a walk in the park. Better than all of Nadal's USO draws.
 

RS

Bionic Poster
agree with regard to 3 best grass matches
I don't agree with the overall assessment of Wim 07 vs Wim 08 final, but fair enough.
Fair enough about the match assessment Nadal played some good tennis in the last set despite the 6-2 scoreline.
BTW who do you think wins between Djokovic 2014 Wimbeldon final and Murray Wimbeldon 2012 final? I see that going 5 which ever way and edge a little to Djokovic.
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
Fair enough about the match assessment Nadal played some good tennis in the last set despite the 6-2 scoreline.

only the last game was a subdued Nadal.
he had 2 BPs each at 1 all and 2 all. All of which Federer saved. then at 2-3 Nadal, federer broke with an excellent return game. then 4 unreturnables (including 3 aces) IIRC from federer to make it 5-2. An absolutely emphatic hold.

BTW who do you think wins between Djokovic 2014 Wimbeldon final and Murray Wimbeldon 2012 final? I see that going 5 which ever way.

yes, I'd probably take Djokovic in 5 sets.
 
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