Had AO 2011-2016 sped up like AO 2017, Would Federer stand a chance against Djokovic/Nadal

Between AO 2011-2016, Federer lost 5 semi-finals against Djokovic, Nadal and Murray. Would the hypothetical speedup of AO during 2011-2016 could possibly change the match results? I do think it might affect AO 2011, AO 2012 and AO 2014. He might even win AO 2011 and 2014.

Any thought?
 

deacsyoga

Banned
Between AO 2011-2016, Federer lost 5 semi-finals against Djokovic, Nadal and Murray. Would the hypothetical speedup of AO during 2011-2016 could possibly change the match results? I do think it might affect AO 2011, AO 2012 and AO 2014. He might even win AO 2011 and 2014.

Any thought?

Djokovic absoutely still wins in 2011. He was just in the sharper form that year. It might not be straight sets but he still wins.

2012 he would have had to beat both Nadal and Djokovic, which still would have been too much IMO. If he beats Nadal in the semis (which I am not sure of) I doubt he has enough left to then beat Djokovic in the finals.

2014 is the one he would have had the best chance to possibly win with the sped up courts especialy since if he beats Nadal he gets his pigeon Wawrinka, who is even more his pigeon on faster court. And the only one I could see it making the difference.
 

Dilexson

Hall of Fame
Eventual playing conditions weren't much different this year despite courts being faster at least not enough to affect the outcome imo.
 

underground

G.O.A.T.
He might have edged out against Rafa in 2012. Definitely would have beaten Murray in 2013 and had a shot at Djoker there IMO.
 

deacsyoga

Banned
He might have edged out against Rafa in 2012. Definitely would have beaten Murray in 2013 and had a shot at Djoker there IMO.

ROTFL at winning in 2013. He wasnt in even close to the form needed to win the Australian Open over Djokovic that year. That was his worst year of tennis ever probably, even if the Australian Open was some of his better form that year.

And I am not sure at all he beats Murray since even though it was 5 sets as it was, he wasnt really close to winning and it went long since he won close sets.
 
D

Deleted member 512391

Guest
Is there any data regarding the court speed for the period between 2011 and 2016?
 
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Between AO 2011-2016, Federer lost 5 semi-finals against Djokovic, Nadal and Murray. Would the hypothetical speedup of AO during 2011-2016 could possibly change the match results? I do think it might affect AO 2011, AO 2012 and AO 2014. He might even win AO 2011 and 2014.

Any thought?
Probably not. the matches all would have gone up to 4-5 sets from 2012-2016. Novak is just too good at AO. Murray is as well, but always loses in the finals. Nadal would be edged out quickly with the fast paced courts. Fed may have a chance, but highly unlikely.
 

BVSlam

Professional
2014-2016 editions were already faster than 2011-2013. People act as if 2017 is the only decently fast edition since the change to Plexicushion, but 2014 set the trend already. Many players commented on that during the 2014 edition as well.

But yes, 2017 was a little quicker than that still. Would it have mattered? That's difficult, because Federer's playing mindset was different in many of those editions. Maybe he would have beaten Nadal in 2012 because he was in good form and lost it when Nadal started to use the slow conditions to get many of Federer's near-winners back in play. But then to beat Djokovic as well...tough. You'd say 2014 is a chance, but he was still bombing it against Nadal back then, who was also a lot more explosive on the forehand even at AO 2014 than at AO 2017, and again, 2014 was already faster than 2012 for example. And outside of the Tsonga and Murray matches, he didn't play all that great in that edition of the AO.

Maybe he'd sneak one in if different conditions made any of those three opponents play a little worse themselves.
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
He'd have a far better chance in 2012 in 2014, not in 2011 (Djokovic too hot), 2013 (average form), 2015 (even worse), 2016 (Djokovic too hot).
 

Vish13

Semi-Pro
2014 is the one he would have had the best chance to possibly win with the sped up courts especialy since if he beats Nadal he gets his pigeon Wawrinka, who is even more his pigeon on faster court. And the only one I could see it making the difference.

Don't know how much sped up the court would need to be in 2014 to convert a 7-6, 6-3, 6-3 routine loss into a win.
 

deacsyoga

Banned
Don't know how much sped up the court would need to be in 2014 to convert a 7-6, 6-3, 6-3 routine loss into a win.

Good point, I had forgotten how relatively one sided that match was.

Yeah there probably isnt a year he wins with a faster court. 2012 probably his best shot, but it would depend on if he could win hard fought matches with Nadal and Djokovic back to back (a hard ask).
 

Mind Doctor

Rookie
So once again Nadal loses the matches that didn't happen:rolleyes:
As long as Nadal wins the matches that *did* happen I'm OK with that. :)

Let them build their imaginary world filled with wonder and victories that never happened.

alice1920.jpg
 

TennisCJC

Legend
Eventual playing conditions weren't much different this year despite courts being faster at least not enough to affect the outcome imo.

I disagree. I think this year AO was slight advantage to Federer who when healthy and confident, the best fast court player of the big 4.
 
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