tennisenthusiast
Hall of Fame
Does Federer just have to perform better than Rafa at USOpen or does he have to win it all by at least two rounds difference?
Here's how Lord Fedr can take over no.1 directly from Murray after Cincy 2017
- Thread starter falstaff78
- Start date
Fedberg20
Semi-Pro
It will depend on what Rafa does at Cincinnati. Too many options to calculate now, but if he wins it then Rog probably won't be able to do it at the Open without winning it AND Rafa losing within the first 3-4 rounds.
It's looking much better in the race where Rog is behind only 50 points (currently). However, his health issues now have to come into the equation and it might just be a bridge too far for him. Still had a great run this year, so nobody should really complaint, we all knew this was always a possibility.
falstaff78
Hall of Fame
With Fedr out of TRS this thread is dead. Will update numbers after TRS, so we know precise permutations for USO. As @Fedberg20 mentioned there are too many options to calculate sensibly at the moment.
tennisenthusiast
Hall of Fame
Let's revisit the scenarios now! Would you? 500 point difference between Nadal and Federer; 5 point difference between Murray and Federer. Thing seems to be turning into a airtight race.
mightyjeditribble
Hall of Fame
Murray defending USO QF (360 points) and Nadal R16 (180).
So Fed needs to outperform Nadal by 315 points. If Roger reaches at least the semis, at least matches Murray and outperforms Nadal, he will be #1.
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BeatlesFan
Bionic Poster
If Fed takes the USO, he'll be #1 for a lot longer than a few weeks. He'll be entering the HC season which is traditionally his bread and butter, whereas Nadal has won exactly ONE indoor title in his entire career. Fed will safely be #1 until post-AO in 2018, unless he gets injured. Also remember the YEC awards 1500 pts to the winner and Fed's won that 6 titles. Nothing's certain in tennis, of course, but once Federer gets back #1, he will hold it for many months.
falstaff78
Hall of Fame
1. Point situation:
2. Implications:
3. Point differentials (for reference)
@volleynets @tennisenthusiast @mightyjeditribble @BeatlesFan
- To be #1 after USO, Federer needs to outperform Nadal by 320 points
- To be #1 after USO, Murray needs to outperform Nadal by 675 points and Federer by 355 points
- No one else is close enough to get number 1 after the USO, regardless of results
2. Implications:
- If any of the three wins the USO, he automatically gets number 1
- This is because the difference between a W and a RU is bigger than the largest of the above differentials (800 > 675)
- Murray can get #1 in either of the following scenarios:
- Murray RU ==> Nadal QF & Federer SF
- Murray SF ==> Nadal R64* & Federer QF
- Federer can get #1 in any of the following scenarios:
- Federer RU ==> Nadal SF & Murray SF
- Federer SF ==> Nadal QF & Murray SF
- Federer QF ==> Nadal R128 & Murray QF
- Failing all of the above, Nadal gets number 1 after the USO
3. Point differentials (for reference)
- W minus RU = 800
- RU minus SF = 480
- RU minus QF = 840
- SF minus QF = 360
- SF minus R16 = 540
- SF minus R32 = 630
- SF minus R64 = 675
- SF minus R128 = 710
- QF minus R16 = 180
- QF minus R32 = 270
- QF minus R64 = 315
- QF minus R128 = 350
@volleynets @tennisenthusiast @mightyjeditribble @BeatlesFan
Last edited:
icedevil0289
G.O.A.T.
damn my head is spinning, but well done. ty
falstaff78
Hall of Fame
Following #DrawGate, the ranking situation very simple now:
- if either Federer or Nadal reach final, he's number 1 regardless of the other
- If either reaches the semi and the other doesn't, he's number 1
- If Federer reaches the QF and Nadal loses in round 1, Fed's number 1
- If Federer fails to reach the SF and Nadal wins a single match, Nadal is number 1
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