His best mounted chances were 2012 and 2017, blew off both by horrible choking losses or idiotic decisions (Montreal 2017)...Any chance he is #1 by YE as a 38 yr old?
His best mounted chances were 2012 and 2017, blew off both by horrible choking losses or idiotic decisions (Montreal 2017)...
Definitely he's not ending ye#1 unless rafa djok and sascha all 3 are half drunk throughout the year
I don't think his chances are zero.
How close would this get him?
4th round and QF on the two Clay tournaments. QF being the French.
Win Stuttgart, Wimbledon, Cincy, US Open SF, Win Basel, Finals of Shanghai and WTF.
I mean he's ahead as of today. If Nadal wins the French and Novak doesn't win the USOpen Fed probably would be #1 in the above scenario
Not sure how you can say zero..he is currently No. 1 in the race (barely) and neither Nadal nor Djokovic have shown much consistency yet this year.He has about 0% chances of becoming #1 again. Of course, if he wins Wimbledon and Djokovic and Nadal get injured during MC 1st round, his chances will go up. But that would imply a good USO and he's been unable to play well there since 15, so very very long odds.
He has a boatload of points to defend this summer, but can gain on clay. It's way too early to know who will end #1. Djoker's lead over Nadal is 2300 points, hardly insurmountable. Remember in April, 2016 Nole was ahead by something like 8,000 points in the rankings and Muzz came roaring back to snatch YE #1.Djokovic will do it most likely. 6th ye#1
Defending points doesn't matter for the YE #1 rankingHe has a boatload of points to defend this summer, but can gain on clay. It's way too early to know who will end #1. Djoker's lead over Nadal is 2300 points, hardly insurmountable. Remember in April, 2016 Nole was ahead by something like 8,000 points in the rankings and Muzz came roaring back to snatch YE #1.
Take even a crazy scenario like Zverev winning Madrid, Wimbledon, Toronto and getting to the finals of the USO. Theoretically he could end up YE #1.
So was he in 17 and 18 and by a much bigger marginNot sure how you can say zero..he is currently No. 1 in the race (barely) and neither Nadal nor Djokovic have shown much consistency yet this year.
Of course, clay season is where he is likely to lose ground in the race, so we'll see soon enough.
Zero!
Any chance he is #1 by YE as a 38 yr old?
Has anyone done the scenarios and the math with Nadal, Djokovic and Sasha in the 3 spots above?
Defending points doesn't matter for the YE #1 ranking
The USO loss was still disappointing though, considering Novak and Andy looked beatable in that tournament. Fed was also cruising and had a walkover before that loss to Berdych too. It was all lining up and would've been the perfect cap to that year long run and the ultimate redemption after 10 & 11.I wouldn't say he choked anything in 2012, he just ran out of steam after a ridiculous run for a year post USO 2011 (Wins: Basel, Bercy, WTF, Rotterdam, Dubai, IW, Madrid, Wimbledon, Cinci; F: Halle, Olympics; SF: Doha, AO, Rome, RG).
The USO loss was still disappointing though, considering Novak and Andy looked beatable in that tournament. Fed was also cruising and had a walkover before that loss to Berdych too. It was all lining up and would've been the perfect cap to that year long run and the ultimate redemption after 10 & 11.
Karma for RG '11.That walkover messed up his rhythm big time. I was worried it would.
Djokovic will do it most likely. 6th ye#1
Karma for RG '11.
I had him finals of YEC sorry if it wasn't clear.How likely is it though Fed Himself wins all of Wimbledon and YEC? Sure IF that happens he could probably be #1 but realistically does that seem like it could happen? I really don't think he can at this point....
Its certainly POSSIBLE...but that doesn't mean its likely.
He wasn't far off in 2014 either, if I remember right. Djokovic slammed the door shut decisively in the end, but in the early fall it was mathematically possible for Fed to end the year number one. If he had converted the US Open after Djokovic lost or had won the the fifth set of their Wimbledon final, he might have been able to just nose ahead. Crazy how close to the top he's managed to stay even deep into his 30s.His best mounted chances were 2012 and 2017, blew off both by horrible choking losses or idiotic decisions (Montreal 2017)...
Definitely he's not ending ye#1 unless rafa djok and sascha all 3 are half drunk throughout the year
If he can rack up enough clay points and defend most of the HC he should be able to get #2 in USO draw which would keep him opposite Nole on the other half. He seems to be able to handle Sasha and RafaIt would be a crazy achievement. Absolutely frikkin mad.
And that is precisely why it won't happen.
I just hope he is 4th(3rd is too much to ask) in the race once clay ends. Thiem will most probably surpass him by the end of FO as he should. Hoap Fed stays ahead of Tsits. This way he can be 3rd once grass ends.
And then he will have a chance to be 2nd going ahead of Nadal probably but YE#1 seems extremely unlikely.
Let's devise a hypothetical scenario where Fed can become YE#1.
I am assuming that his(or anyone's) fight for YE#1 will be against Djoker instead of Nadal.
I will make a scenario and you decide how probable it is. I already think it is extremely unlikely.
Fed(current points- 2280):
Madrid: QF 180
RG: R16 180
Halle: 500
Wimbley: W 2000
Cincy & Shanghai: W & F 1000+600
USO: 360
Basel: 500
WTF: 1300
-----
Total: 8900
Djoker(current:- 2225):
Assuming he won't play Barcelona & Eastbourne & Basel/Vienna & Beijing. Will consider them later.
MC: SF 360
Madrid: F 600
Rome: SF 360
RG: F 1200
Wimbley: SF 720
Canada, Cincy, Shanghai, Paris: SF, SF, W, QF 360+360+1000+180
USO:720
WTF: 800
-------
Total: 8885
So even when I have Djoker playing like **** by his standards pretty much the whole year and Federer playing awesome pretty much everywhere (except clay and USO)-- which is the best scenario for Rog-- Rog only edges Djoker by 15 points.
If Fed loses one match outside of this best case scenario he won't have that YE#1.
Also if Djoker feels like Fed is going after the YE#1 he will certainly play Beijing or Vienna/Basel which pretty much closes the doors for a Fed YE#1.
Also as you see I have Djokovic losing in the SF of USO in this scenario and Fed losing in the QFs.
If neither of them wins it, who will?
Most probably Nadal.
And if he does he will jump right into contention for the YE#1.
Let's see.
He has 1600 till now.
1000+500+1000+180+2000 from dirt.
360 from Wimbley.
2000 from USO.
That takes him to 7640.
And then he needs about 1300(to surpass Fedovic) from Canada, Cincy, Beijing, Shanghai, Paris & WTF.
Even an injured bull can manage that.
So yeah I don't really see a scenario where Federer gets that YE#1 in the presence of healthy Djokodal.
He may be able to handle Sasha and Rafa everywhere else but at USGarros seems too much for Roger at his age.If he can rack up enough clay points and defend most of the HC he should be able to get #2 in USO draw which would keep him opposite Nole on the other half. He seems to be able to handle Sasha and Rafa
PreachThe amount of points fed has to defend has no correlation with where he will finish at the end of the year
Halle not StuttgartI'll list more clearly what I was thinking:
Madrid - 4th
French - QF
Stuttgart - W
Wimbly - W
Cincy - W
US Open - SF
Basel - W
Shanghai - F
YEC - F
--
So it is a lot of wins, but Wimbeldon is the only really substantial needle moving win. (Cincy has always been kind to him)
Also, it's only 9 more tournaments over the next 5-6 months.
It's probably not enough quantity, but realistic enough quality that I think it's plausible
Yes, I learned that many moons ago. OldmanFan got what I meant.Defending points doesn't matter for the YE #1 ranking
True but there is correlation in terms of seeding. If he is #2 at some point he will be guaranteed to be opposite Nole(assume #1) at USO and other M1000s. Which should help. But a very low correlation at bestThe amount of points fed has to defend has no correlation with where he will finish at the end of the year
The USO loss was still disappointing though, considering Novak and Andy looked beatable in that tournament. Fed was also cruising and had a walkover before that loss to Berdych too. It was all lining up and would've been the perfect cap to that year long run and the ultimate redemption after 10 & 11.
He wasn't far off in 2014 either, if I remember right. Djokovic slammed the door shut decisively in the end, but in the early fall it was mathematically possible for Fed to end the year number one. If he had converted the US Open after Djokovic lost or had won the the fifth set of their Wimbledon final, he might have been able to just nose ahead. Crazy how close to the top he's managed to stay even deep into his 30s.
It would be a crazy achievement. Absolutely frikkin mad.
And that is precisely why it won't happen.
I just hope he is 4th(3rd is too much to ask) in the race once clay ends. Thiem will most probably surpass him by the end of FO as he should. Hoap Fed stays ahead of Tsits. This way he can be 3rd once grass ends.
And then he will have a chance to be 2nd going ahead of Nadal probably but YE#1 seems extremely unlikely.
Let's devise a hypothetical scenario where Fed can become YE#1.
I am assuming that his(or anyone's) fight for YE#1 will be against Djoker instead of Nadal.
I will make a scenario and you decide how probable it is. I already think it is extremely unlikely.
Fed(current points- 2280):
Madrid: QF 180
RG: R16 180
Halle: 500
Wimbley: W 2000
Cincy & Shanghai: W & F 1000+600
USO: 360
Basel: 500
WTF: 1300
-----
Total: 8900
Djoker(current:- 2225):
Assuming he won't play Barcelona & Eastbourne & Queens & Basel/Vienna & Beijing. Will consider them later.
MC: SF 360
Madrid: F 600
Rome: SF 360
RG: F 1200
Wimbley: SF 720
Canada, Cincy, Shanghai, Paris: SF, SF, W, QF 360+360+1000+180
USO:720
WTF: 800
-------
Total: 8885
So even when I have Djoker playing like **** by his standards pretty much the whole year and Federer playing awesome pretty much everywhere (except clay and USO)-- which is the best scenario for Rog-- Rog only edges Djoker by 15 points.
If Fed loses one match outside of this best case scenario he won't have that YE#1.
Also if Djoker feels like Fed is going after the YE#1 he will certainly play Beijing or Vienna/Basel which pretty much closes the doors for a Fed YE#1.
Also as you see I have Djokovic losing in the SF of USO in this scenario and Fed losing in the QFs.
If neither of them wins it, who will?
Most probably Nadal.
And if he does he will jump right into contention for the YE#1.
Let's see.
He has 1600 till now.
1000+500+1000+180+2000 from dirt.
360 from Wimbley.
2000 from USO.
That takes him to 7640.
And then he needs about 1300(to surpass Fedovic) from Canada, Cincy, Beijing, Shanghai, Paris & WTF.
Even an injured bull can manage that.
So yeah I don't really see a scenario where Federer gets that YE#1 in the presence of healthy Djokodal.
I agree with most of the things you say and I don't think Fed's low changes of getting YE#1 are due to his form. It's primarily due to his schedule.All reasonable scenarios. But then, it was also reasonable to expect from the Sunshine Double 1100+ points from Djokr (at least a W+QF or 2 Fs, or maybe a F+SF) and 700+ from Nadl (at least 2 SFs or F+QF). Djokr left with 135pts(!) and 3 match wins, and Nadl left with 360pts and an injury. All 3 have aged, yes, but only Fedr has shown true consistency, even moreso when you consider that he was hampered by a hand injury after Stuttgrat18 thru WTF18 (still made it deep everywhere while playing meh). Fedr's form is better this year (Tsitsipas was a close loss, could've easily won).
2019 YE#1 race should be interesting either way.
I don't think it's impossible for Federer to be YE #1, stranger things have happened.... It's just that at this point in his career with the reduced schedule, he needs some outside help to make that happen. It will be interesting to see how Federer/Nadal/Djokovic are doing after Wimbledon. Everyone is making assumptions based on past performance that Nadal & Djokovic will be splitting the big titles for the rest of the year or so, but I'd like to remind everyone that Nadal's health is still a question mark and Djokovic lost early in 2 of his "fortress" on his favorite surface, so who knows what the future holds for them....we all know how easily things can change on tour.
I agree with most of the things you say and I don't think Fed's low changes of getting YE#1 are due to his form. It's primarily due to his schedule.
He is slated to miss 4 out of 9 masters(not sure if he is playing Paris).
And that is the biggest reason I don't think he can gain the points required for YE#1. But we will see.
Sorry, yah Halle. Well spottedHalle not Stuttgart
I think his chances at YE1 went out the window the moment he went out in the 4th round of Australia. Only 180 points there sank him before his campaign even began.I agree with most of the things you say and I don't think Fed's low changes of getting YE#1 are due to his form. It's primarily due to his schedule.
He is slated to miss 4 out of 9 masters(not sure if he is playing Paris).
And that is the biggest reason I don't think he can gain the points required for YE#1. But we will see.
You are very likely correct.I think his chances at YE1 went out the window the moment he went out in the 4th round of Australia. Only 180 points there sank him before his campaign even began.
Bingo.Unless he wins Wimbledon, no chance of YE#1. Even with Wimbledon, he'll need Nadal to slow down in the clay season and Djokovic to slow down everywhere else, so that they split the points.
Tbh, if he wins Wimbledon, I don't care about anything else, that would be just amazing in itself.
ExactlyUnless he wins Wimbledon, no chance of YE#1. Even with Wimbledon, he'll need Nadal to slow down in the clay season and Djokovic to slow down everywhere else, so that they split the points.
Tbh, if he wins Wimbledon, I don't care about anything else, that would be just amazing in itself.
Zero!
Any chance he is #1 by YE as a 38 yr old?
Has anyone done the scenarios and the math with Nadal, Djokovic and Sasha in the 3 spots above?
It is hilarious we are talking about it.Bingo.
It's pretty hilarious that we're even talking about this. And it's literally only because Novak had a little mini-slump post-Australia and some people want to believe it's permanent.