Is the Darwin Blanch hype justified?

[geromino]

Current rank is 1028, best junior results were semifinals at boys' French Open and Wiimbledon, best pro result is a semifinals at a futures tournament, highest ranked player he has beaten is #556.
For comparison by the same age (16 years 7 months):
Gasquet: ranked ~150, won French Open and US Open juniors, won multiple futures/challengers titles, won multiple tour-level matches, beat multiple top 100 opponents
Nadal: ranked ~200, won several futures titles, won a tour-level match, beat multiple top 100 opponents
Alcaraz: ranked in the top 500, won a futures title, beat multiple top 200 opponents
Murray: ranked in the top 600, won a futures title, beat a top 200 opponent
Del Potro: ranked in the top 600, won a futures title, beat a top 300 opponent
Djokovic: ranked in the top 700, won a futures title, beat a top 500 opponent
Federer: ranked in the top 700
Wawrinka: ranked in the top 700
Sinner: had only played one futures tournament, reached 2nd round

 

[InsuranceMan]

It’s called IMG/JCF

 

[Kralingen]

This is an interesting question especially the way you’ve both phrased and framed it.

First of all, the usage of the word hype is worth examining, what “hype” exactly? Are there many in the tennis community hyping Blanch, and to what end? Or are you referring to his high profile wild cards in Miami and now Madrid, putting him against none other than the clay GOAT in Rafa on his home turf? I would say those are two distinct versions of “hype”, though of course they are interrelated as very few could tell you the junior SFists at Junior Slams off the top of their head, but now having seen Blanch in a Masters tournament they have an opinion on him.

I would also say that your framing of him against other players at the age of 16 is curious, especially as it seems to be centered around ATGs or Slam Winners. Those players while highly successful did not all take the same path to stardom, in Nadal/Gasquet’s case it came early but obviously for Djokovic and Federer, it took some time. However, it is not actually a useful comparison in assessing “hype” as barely anyone knew Fed, Djokovic or Wawrinka when they were 16. On the contrary, if I was attempting to assess hype of teenagers, specifically in comparing a 16 year old Blanch to other “hyped” 16 year olds, I might use examples like Ryan Harrison for comparison.

Overall, I think that Blanch has received an inordinate amount of exposure compared to his abilities (which is logical, as he is only 16 and has many years to grow) due to his IMG connections, however I did watch him play in Miami and the beginnings of an interesting lefty game were there, so I am less sure that he is receiving too much unjustified “hype”.

Hope this helps.

 

[nolefam_2024]

I think he should get fair chance to play. It's very hard to break through. Let's see.

 

[BeatlesFan]

I think Blanch wins 2 games from Rafa tomorrow.

He's only 16, so 2 games would be a good result against clay GOAT.

 

[Neptune]

Who still hasn't recognized the power of propaganda, scripting, rigging, and manipulation?

 

[ND-13]

I think Blanch wins 2 games from Rafa tomorrow.

He's only 16, so 2 games would be a good result against clay GOAT.

He is the GOAT for many

 

[what_army]

I’ll watch anyway because this is the closest we’ll ever be to the 4.0 who can take a game or two against Nadal.

 

[socallefty]

Most of us haven’t seen him play even on TV as he has basically played one ATP match at the top level which he lost. I’m curious to see him play to understand why he has received two wild cards into M1000 tournaments with such a low ranking. Hard to have an opinion on a player that I have not seen play yet.

 

[travlerajm]

What’s his username on here?

 

[Bill Lobsalot]

Who is "hyping" him? I don't see or hear it.

 

[NaDjoFed]

Well there are jjust three Under 17 in the top 1028.

Rottgering from the Nederlands ranked 897
Cina' from Italy ranked 968
and Blanch from USA.

So yes, it is not really common to be ranked this high at 16.

 

[big ted]

what is the hype exactly? the only reason hes in the news is becuz hes playing rafa

 

[TennisBro]

Most of us haven’t seen him play even on TV as he has basically played one ATP match at the top level which he lost. I’m curious to see him play to understand why he has received two wild cards into M1000 tournaments with such a low ranking. Hard to have an opinion on a player that I have not seen play yet.

I also am uncomfortable with an unaccomplished youngster receiving a WC to Masters while other youngsters of more complete game have been bypassed. However, we are forgetting that junior ITF players in top 20 of the world rankings are in the program that offers them WCs even into Masters. So, it's not just the IMG which I loathe for monopolizing the development of tennis.

 

[geromino]

Who is "hyping" him? I don't see or hear it.

The people giving him multiple wild cards into masters 1000 tournaments.

 

[GAS]

Hopefully OP gets over the grave injustice being committed here

 

[Tshooter]

 

[BeatlesFan]

He is the GOAT for many

Great.

Djokovic has almost all the important records and that's simply a fact. I'd love to still think Fed is GOAT, but am not a delusional idiot. Denying the obvious seems an utter waste of time.

 

[Klatu Verata Necktie]

Only having seen him play once, it seems he has solid, powerful, and consistent strokes, but he lacks a bit when it comes to speed and footwork.

One of the factors that he has going for him is something that can't be taught: it's size and build. He has been gifted with a height and a frame that appears will take muscle well. We'll see how he develops over the next few years.

If he can build up his footspeed, he has a shot to become a prominent force on tour. Time will tell.

 

[austintennis2005]

what is the hype exactly? the only reason hes in the news is becuz hes playing rafa

No. There was hype when he played Machac in Miami last month. It’s because he’s 16 and practicing with alcaraz and rune he’s getting hype

 

[big ted]

No. There was hype when he played Machac in Miami last month. It’s because he’s 16 and practicing with alcaraz and rune he’s getting hype

i must have missed all the hype then

 

[ND-13]

Great.

Djokovic has almost all the important records and that's simply a fact. I'd love to still think Fed is GOAT, but am not a delusional idiot. Denying the obvious seems an utter waste of time.

What is the h2h in majors ??

 

[socallefty]

he lacks a bit when it comes to speed

No speed, won’t succeed.

 

[big ted]

I'd love to still think Fed is GOAT, but am not a delusional idiot. Denying the obvious seems an utter waste of time.

there are still ways to justify roger as the goat altho they are diminishing.. for example he has more USO and W titles than djoko which are arguably the 2 biggest tournaments in tennis

 

[buscemi]

Current rank is 1028, best junior results were semifinals at boys' French Open and Wiimbledon, best pro result is a semifinals at a futures tournament, highest ranked player he has beaten is #556.
For comparison by the same age (16 years 7 months):
Gasquet: ranked ~150, won French Open and US Open juniors, won multiple futures/challengers titles, won multiple tour-level matches, beat multiple top 100 opponents
Nadal: ranked ~200, won several futures titles, won a tour-level match, beat multiple top 100 opponents
Alcaraz: ranked in the top 500, won a futures title, beat multiple top 200 opponents
Murray: ranked in the top 600, won a futures title, beat a top 200 opponent
Del Potro: ranked in the top 600, won a futures title, beat a top 300 opponent
Djokovic: ranked in the top 700, won a futures title, beat a top 500 opponent
Federer: ranked in the top 700
Wawrinka: ranked in the top 700
Sinner: had only played one futures tournament, reached 2nd round

Alcaraz and Sinner seem like the most pertinent comparisons given that everyone else is at least a decade older when things were very different.

Alcaraz, of course, developed at a very young age and was well ahead of Sinner and Blanch at the same age.

But the Sinner comparison is interesting. You noted that Blanch has already beaten #556 by age 16 years, 7 months. That was on hard courts where he has also beaten #620 and #621. He also has a win over #663 on clay.

Unless I missed something, those four wins were against higher ranked opponents than anyone Sinner beat until he beat #546 in February 2019 when he was about 17 years, 6 months old.

Given that, Blanch seems to be on a good trajectory, especially given his physical tools.

 

[Bill Lobsalot]

there are still ways to justify roger as the goat altho they are diminishing.. for example he has more USO and W titles than djoko which are arguably the 2 biggest tournaments in tennis

And, that he's ten times more entertaining to watch.

 

[GRASScaraz]

Well Fonseca finished last year ranked 700. Blanch is slowly improving in futures and more importantly seems to be committed to playing on clay as an American. He is very raw and is still getting used to his frame (6"4) so results may come a bit later.

Does he belong in M1000? No but it is good for.him to get these experiences to further develop. I think he will start making waves in Challengers in late 2024-25.

 

[BeatlesFan]

I think Blanch wins 2 games from Rafa tomorrow.

He's only 16, so 2 games would be a good result against clay GOAT.

My prediction is almost perfect so far.

 

[jm1980]

Embarrassing that they sent out a kid to be a sacrificial lamb against Nadal

 

[Klatu Verata Necktie]

Like some other posters, I'm not sure giving such young prospects wildcards into big events is such a good idea. The image that somes to mind when this strategy fails is Donald Young. He was proclaimed the future of American tennis from the time he was 15, and the wildcards did him no good in the long run.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Embarrassing that they sent out a kid to be a sacrificial lamb against Nadal

Blanch handled it very well though, so all credit to him. To be 16 years old and only win a few points in a match had to have been difficult for him, but he remained mature and walked off the court with good body language. Seems like a nice kid!

 

[Neptune]

Is this a record for encounters between players ranked 500+ and 1000+ at the ATP Masters main draw?

 

[Bill Lobsalot]

My prediction is almost perfect so far.

Well done Miss Cleo.

 

[citybert]

Those holing it was 16 year old Rafa beating Moya are probably disappointed. But kid still can be good

 

[nolefam_2024]

Those holing it was 16 year old Rafa beating Moya are probably disappointed. But kid still can be good

Djokovic was beaten 2-1-0 in Aussie open by Safin but now Djokovic is Aussie GOAT.

This kid is younger than Djokovic was in 2005 AO. Shouldn't bash him.

 

[ALCARAZWON]

Nobody was going to beat Nadal today, nobody in the top 10 and obviously no teenager, this was a Roland Garros ready Nadal.
Blanch would have done significantly better and maybe won a set vs. Sinner or Tsitsipas or the heavily-declining-Djokovic.
No shame in being bagelled and breadsticked by Nadal, since Blanch only won ONE less game than Djokovic did in the first 2 sets of the 2020 RG Final.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Those holing it was 16 year old Rafa beating Moya are probably disappointed. But kid still can be good

I'm not sure about that. The greats always have a big shot or something special even at 16. If we could take 16 year old Agassi or Becker and put them on tour now, both would be top 5 easily. Blanch has no big weapon, his movement is average, I don't see any tremendous future for him. He's not going to develop a Sampras serve or Fed FH.

 

[NAS]

Djokovic was beaten 2-1-0 in Aussie open by Safin but now Djokovic is Aussie GOAT.

This kid is younger than Djokovic was in 2005 AO. Shouldn't bash him.

You shouldn't bash him but other thing you wrote is bs , Djokovic earned those matches by working through qualifiers, I don't think he was given any single wc in his early days, he used to play through qualifiers to earn main draw event

 

[nolefam_2024]

You shouldn't bash him but other thing ypu wrote is bs , Djokovic earned those matches by working through qualifiers, I don't think he was given any single wc in his early days, he used to play through qualifiers to earn main draw event

I agree. But djokovic was 17. This guy is 16.

This guy shouldn't be handed more wcs at 1000 level. He can work though qualies and challengers himself. But at his age, he is doing ok.

 

[NAS]

I agree. But djokovic was 17. This guy is 16.

This guy shouldn't be handed more wcs at 1000 level. He can work though qualies and challengers himself. But at his age, he is doing ok.

Dude he is given 2 wc of master level event without cracking top 1000 and you think he is doing ok!?

 

[nolefam_2024]

Dude he is given 2 wc of master level event without cracking top 1000 and you think he is doing ok!?

He won r1 in his first masters level. So is that really bad?

 

[nolefam_2024]

I am sorry, he lost in Miami r1. Needless to say, he should be getting same treatment as players his age.

 

[NAS]

He won r1 in his first masters level. So is that really bad?

He lost the first match in Miami

 

[a10best]

One cannot ever judge a U.S. male's level when they play on clay in a masters. He will do better in the summer in 250 or 500s hc.

 

[CHillTennis]

Djokovic was beaten 2-1-0 in Aussie open by Safin but now Djokovic is Aussie GOAT.

This kid is younger than Djokovic was in 2005 AO. Shouldn't bash him.

This is like comparing apples to oranges.

Safin was 24 years old and he won the tournament that year. Nadal is almost 38 years old and he's approaching the very end of his career.

 

[CHillTennis]

I agree. But djokovic was 17. This guy is 16.

This guy shouldn't be handed more wcs at 1000 level. He can work though qualies and challengers himself. But at his age, he is doing ok.

Chang won a slam at 17. Beating the best player in the world that year. I'm just saying.

Wilander also won a slam at 17. So did Boris Becker.

Borg turned 18 when he won the French.

 

[jackson vile]

Everything is manipulated to push an agenda of ideology these days instead of people just simply earning their way

 

[citybert]

I'm not sure about that. The greats always have a big shot or something special even at 16. If we could take 16 year old Agassi or Becker and put them on tour now, both would be top 5 easily. Blanch has no big weapon, his movement is average, I don't see any tremendous future for him. He's not going to develop a Sampras serve or Fed FH.

Rafa had no weapons early on too. but yes he did have much more success in futures and challengers at this age. Blanch could develop them still. of course its more likely that he is average than he is a top ten future player

 

[Klitz]

Nobody was going to beat Nadal today, nobody in the top 10 and obviously no teenager, this was a Roland Garros ready Nadal.
Blanch would have done significantly better and maybe won a set vs. Sinner or Tsitsipas or the heavily-declining-Djokovic.
No shame in being bagelled and breadsticked by Nadal, since Blanch only won ONE less game than Djokovic did in the first 2 sets of the 2020 RG Final.

Why do some people habitually bold the first letter on here? Reminds me of reddit spacing?

 

[MisterP]

What were you pubes doing at 16? I bet it wasn’t playing the GOAT on his home court in front of the world.