Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Federer, Wimbledon final 2019

[Waspsting]

Novak Djokovic beat Roger Federer 7-6(5), 1-6, 7-6(4), 4-6, 13-12(3) in the Wimbledon final, 2019 on grass

Djokovic was the defending champion and this win gave him his 5th title at the venue. It was also his 4th Slam off the last 5 played. Federer was playing in a record extending 12th final (matching the women's record of Martina Navratilova) and had been gunning for a record extending 9th title. He had previously lost finals to Djokovic in 2014 and 2015

Djokovic won 204 points, Federer 218

Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (137/219) 63%
- 1st serve points won (101/137) 74%
- 2nd serve points won (39/82) 48%
- Aces 10 (1 second serve), Service Winners 2
- Double Faults 9
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (51/219) 23%

Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (127/203) 63%
- 1st serve points won (111/127) 87%
- 2nd serve points won (39/76) 51%
- Aces 25 (1 not clean), Service Winners 3
- Double Faults 6
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (69/203) 34%

Serve Pattern
Djokovic served...
- to FH 45%
- to BH 50%
- to Body 5%

Federer served...
- to FH 52%
- to BH 47%
- to Body 1%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 128 (67 FH, 61 BH)
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 41 Errors, comprising...
- 13 Unforced (8 FH, 5 BH)
- 28 Forced (15 FH, 13 BH)
- Return Rate (128/197) 65%

Federer made...
- 159 (72 FH, 87 BH), including 2 return-approaches
- 2 Winners (2 BH)
- 39 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (4 FH, 5 BH)
- 30 Forced (15 FH, 15 BH)
- Return Rate (159/210) 76%

Break Points
Djokovic 3/8 (4 games)
Federer 7/13 (10 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Djokovic 40 (16 FH, 17 BH, 3 FHV, 4 OH)
Federer 63 (28 FH, 10 BH, 11 FHV, 8 BHV, 1 BH1/2V, 5 OH)

Djokovic's FHs - 6 cc (1 pass), 3 dtl, 2 inside-out, 1 inside-in, 2 longline, 1 drop shot (possibly accidental) and 1 return net chord dribbler
- BHs - 4 cc (2 passes - 1 not clean), 9 dtl (1 pass), 1 inside-out, 1 cc pass at net, 1 inside-out/longline pass and 1 running-down-drop-shot dtl at net

- FHVs - 1 swinging pass (not a net point), 1 drop and 1 diving
- 1 OH was played net to net

Federer's FHs - 6 cc (2 passes), 4 dtl (2 passes), 9 inside-out (Djokovic fell down for 1), 4 inside-in, 3 drop shots (Djokovic fell down for 1), 1 running-down-drop-shot cc at net played at very fine angle and 1 at net
- BHs - 7 dtl (2 returns, 1 pass), 1 inside-out/longline and 2 drop shots

- 9 from serve-volley points
- 7 first volleys (4 FHV, 3 BHV), 2 of the FHVs being swinging shots
- 2 second volleys (2 FHV), 1 a stop, the other a drop

- 2 other FHVs were swinging shots, 2 BHVs were drops and 1 OH was played net to net

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Djokovic 77
- 48 Unforced (21 FH, 25 BH, 2 BHV)
- 29 Forced (16 FH, 12 BH, 1 Challenge)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.7

Federer 107
- 70 Unforced (41 FH, 27 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)
- 37 Forced (17 FH, 19 BH, 1 FH1/2V)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.1

(Note 0: the Forced Error challenge marked for Djokovic occurred as he got back in play a difficult ball that would have been marked forced error had he not. He was in a hopeless position with Federer at net to likely put away an easy winner when the challenge was made. Its been judged 'forced error')

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 18/33 (55%) at net

Federer was...
- 47/61 (77%) at net, including...
- 11/13 (85%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 9/11 (82%) off 1st serve and...
- 2/2 off 2nd serve
---
- 2/2 return-approaching
- 1/2 forced back/retreated

Match Report
As a spectacle, this match is hard to beat - defending champion, top seed and world number 1 vs record holder, 2nd seed who beat world number 2 third seed in semis... 12 titles and 16 finals between the pair going to 5 sets. Loser winning more points than the winner. First ever 5th set tiebreak at 12-12 - a rule implemented this year after a series of extended 5th sets in the last few years. 5 stars for spectacle, 5 stars for the struggle but... its not a very good tennis match by the standards of the players involved. Other than Federer's serving, nothing either player does stands out for quality. 1 good tiebreak from Djokovic and 2 bad ones from Federer settle the matter

Its also a misunderstood match, the usual take being one of Roger Federer choking to lose. He chokes in 2/3 tiebreaks all right - which is more than bad enough - but the usual take on his choking in failing to serve out the match is in my opinion, grossly exaggerated

40-15... Choke?
The part everyone remembers. Federer serves for the title, 8-7 in the fifth set. He advances to 40-15 with back to back aces (in other words, he's got his fill of points for the game from the big serve) and has 2 championship points. First he tries to runaround a decent return to hit a FH inside-out winner but misses... an UE, but very much the type of shot he was playing. Next point, he forces the issue by coming to net only for Djokovic to hit a clutch FH cc pass. Next point, he's outmuscled from the baseline (having played the type of 3rd ball BH that he avoided in going for the runaround FH winner on his first championship point) and forced into an error. Finally, he's broken, netting a routine FH

Compare that to the previous game, where Djokovic blows a 30-0 lead to get broken with 2 bad FH UEs (I'd say just 1 of Federer's 2 was bad - the other isn't 'good' obviously, but part and parcel of how he plays) and Federer making a great pass (similar to the one Djokovic made next game)

I don't see a difference... if Federer 'choked' to not serve out the match, Djokovic choked at least as much to give him the chance in the first place... why all the censure for Federer alone?

Almost the exact same thing happened earlier in the set, but in reverse order (and with even worse playing quality). Federer was broken to go down 4-2 (3 BH UEs - 2 of them winner attempts - from Fed and a great Djokovic BH cc pass winner). Next game, Djoko was broken (points he lost include a double fault, missing a routine BH and an attacking FH)…. this is just as 'chokey' as what happened later. How is Federer's 'choke' in game 16 any worse than Djoko's in game 7?

In a nutshell, Federer deserves criticism for a great many things in this match (which we'll get to in a bit), among them failing to serve out the match... but not to anything like the extent he's gotten, which is akin to reducing a 6 hour interview to a 1 line soundbite and thinking you've covered everything

Serve & Return
Djokovic's serve is at best decent on the whole. No great power, no great placement... but are down from his norm. So how does he win a lofty 74% first serve points?

Federer's return is ordinary, a bit less than decent... though that might be his norm in the period in question. You can see Fed forces 28 return errors and Djoko forces 30.... but the ones Fed forces are significantly more forced. By contrast, Fed misses a large number of 'makeable returns'... first serves of decent power but neither deep nor wide. The kind of ball a good returner should at least get in play (and a great returner, like Djokovic's norm, may well punish)

Fed does little punishing of even the second serve, let alone first

It would be an uphill task to punish Federer's first serve, by contrast. He serves excellently throughout - power and placement - and Djokovic doesn't seem to read it. Djokovic however, is quite capable of doing just that as he's proved many times before, including the finals of 2014-15

This day though, he's not upto the task. Note the 13 UEs, very high for Djokovic. And very few of those deep penetrating returns he's known for. In addition to missing so many returns, Djoko isn't particularly damaging with the ones he makes. He has just the 1 winner (which is a fluke net chord dribbler), while Federer has 2. Far from snatching initiative of the point with the return as is his norm, Djoko can't even neutralize the servers advantage... and Federer is allowed to play 3rd balls with a healthy initiative, regularly even off his second serves

 

[Waspsting]

Play - Baseline & Net
Djokovic is well down from his norm and plays a very patchy match. At times, he's an error machine, unable to keep routine balls in play. Very uncharacteristic. At others, he's steady but not particularly damaging

Federer is also up and down. He's able to nurse the advantage his serve gives him to winning points for the whole match, without being unduly aggressive. This is very good for him as a common problem is losing points to over-aggression... if he can keep winning points without undue risk, that's a solid base to be launching from

Its on neutral rallies and defensive situations that he's poor. The 37 errors he's forced into... a good bit of them are mildly forced. It doesn't take super attacking shots to win points of Federer, and that allows Djokovic, who plays well below himself, to not just hang in, but get the better of baseline rallies. And there's the small matter of 68 groundstroke UEs (Djokovic has 46). Djoko himself makes errors from defensive positions more readily than usual

In a nutshell, not a great baseline match. Fairly passive (should be noted the court is slow for grass), the successful attacking plays coming out of nowhere (low percentage stuff) or out of the serve... but point construction from both players not great

Federer's excellent 77% net points won is a bit deceptive. There's a large amount of 'insurance policy' points that have little to do with his volley and everything with the approach shot. He volleys well though and might have considered coming in more... Djoko's groundies lack the rifle shot quality that discourages coming in

Djoko's 55% net points won doesn't look good. Fed passes well and a significant number of Djoko's 33 trips to the net involve Federer drop shots, which have nothing to do with his volley

Stamina
Most of the fifth set is ugly tennis. Both players appear tired. Federer in particular moves poorly. Djoko's weariness is less obvious, but still present

Temperment - Clutch & Choke
This is what decides the match

Compartmentalizing the match by sets, Federer is the better player in sets 2 and 4. In set 2, Djokovic plays atrociously, spraying errors all over the place... and tanks at least 1 game at the end and a good many points besides in set 2.... that outcome is primarily due to his poor play.

In set 4, a combination of Federer having his best point construction of the match and Djokovic having error lapses accounts for the result. Federer is actually up 2 breaks and Djoko hadn't seen a break point yet before he snatches one back

Federer is slightly the better player going into the first set tiebreak. His serve is all but untouchable and he troubles Djoko with BH slices. The tiebreak is a choke from Fed, with Djoko holding steady... Fed bypasses a chance to come to net when he's in charge and goes on to lose the second point with a FH UE. Next point, he misses a sitting duck pass. At least those points were on Djoko's serve, so he's able to stay in the game with strong serving and leads 5-3 with a serve to come. A badly executed aggressive FH hands back the mini-break... and a couple more routine errors give Djoko the set. 5 unforced errors from Federer in the tiebreak - 4 of them FHs

Federer probably edges set 3 too... though that's near enough even. He has the only break point, on which he nets a straightforward BH return off a first serve. In the tiebreak, its the BHs turn to tighten up... 2 routine errors, 1 mishit to a routine ball, and 1 slice return (on a point where he gently pushes back an 80mph second serve return) give the set to Djokovic

5th set is fairly even also, though it feels like that equilibrium is kept by way of who plays less badly. Both players are tired physically and one imagine, nerves play a part also. Djokovic returns better than at other parts of the match and Federer's serve perhaps drops a notch. The Swiss is lucky to get away with a strange period where he keeps hitting drop shots... a very risky way of attacking. That he didnt' instead choose to come to net is an indicator that he wasn't confident up there, despite Djokovic not being anywhere near his best hitting groundies.

This tiebreak is more down to Djokovic playing well.... forcing a 1/2volley error to a serve-volleying Federer, following a third ball FH cc winner with a very good BH dtl winner to finish a good rally and otherwise keeping the ball in play with authority. Cometh the hour, cometh the man

Summing up, given the magnitude of the match, if play had been just "good" it would probably have been lauded as the greatest match ever in the way hyperbole tends to work. The reason it wasn't is because... its obviously not a good match of play. Ordinary to weak returning from both players and mostly craggy stuff from the baseline. When it counts most, Djokovic at least holds steady while Federer takes a dip

 

[Lleytonstation]

Great analysis. Good read.

But it won't take long before we get a specific stat...

 

[ForumMember]

You must be a sadist to bring it up so soon. Wounds are still green.

 

[ForumMember]

Great analysis. Good read.

But it won't take long before we get a specific stat...

are you referring to 40-15?

 

[Lleytonstation]

are you referring to 40-15?

Yes, the dreaded 4 and zero and 1 and five thingy.

 

[Breakpointerer]

You must be a sadist to bring it up so soon. Wounds are still green.

Nope.

 

[Robert Baratheon]

Good read. Keep up the great work.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Your honest and thoughtful takes are always appreciated, OP. Too bad most mugs don't bother, much easier to repeat peak fedr goat final novak boat &c.

 

[NatF]

Man reading that just frustrates me lol.

I've not hated a match like this since the AO 2009 final.

 

[Towny]

This was the match that Federer could've and should've won. This wasn't Djokovic 2015 on the other side of the net. Federer is older but he could've got the job done against a weaker Djokovic. The fairytale slam run wherein he beats Nadal and Djokovic back to back. And he was the better player throughout most of the match too. But credit to the man of rubber with the will of iron. He stayed clutch where it mattered most - the tiebreakers. Imagine Djokovic of 2012 RG - 2014 RG outclutching Fed like this in a Wimbledon final

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

This was the match that Federer could've and should've won. This wasn't Djokovic 2015 on the other side of the net. Federer is older but he could've got the job done against a weaker Djokovic. The fairytale slam run wherein he beats Nadal and Djokovic back to back. And he was the better player throughout most of the match too. But credit to the man of rubber with the will of iron. He stayed clutch where it mattered most - the tiebreakers. Imagine Djokovic of 2012 RG - 2014 RG outclutching Fed like this in a Wimbledon final

Imagine peak fedr losing three tiebreaks to anyone in a Wimbledon final...

inb4 fedr's tiebreak skill never declined, it's the rest of the tour brutally improving

 

[GabeT]

Great read. Totally agree on the “choking”. I too think it was part of the normal play and both “choked” important points and games.

In the end it was a battle of wills. I’ve never been so exhausted after watching a match. Can’t imagine how the players themselves felt.

 

[Fedforever]

I don't see a difference... if Federer 'choked' to not serve out the match, Djokovic choked at least as much to give him the chance in the first place... why all the censure for Federer alone?

It's always been the same though. It's a bit Fed's fault though since he's clear that he always regards a match as being on his racket.

 

[Towny]

Imagine peak fedr losing three tiebreaks to anyone in a Wimbledon final...

inb4 fedr's tiebreak skill never declined, it's the rest of the tour brutally improving

He's meant to be tiebreak GOAT yet it's become somewhat of a liability in recent years. In the last 2 matches against Djokovic, all 5 sets Djokovic won were tiebreak sets. All 3 sets that Federer won had a sustained break of serve. Would never have expected that

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

He's meant to be tiebreak GOAT yet it's become somewhat of a liability in recent years. In the last 2 matches against Djokovic, all 5 sets Djokovic won were tiebreak sets. All 3 sets that Federer won had a sustained break of serve. Would never have expected that

Yeah, he's lost TB H2H now too (was 13-10 before Paris 18, now is 13-15). "Fun" fact: fedr is 15-6 in TBs this year, which is great overall, but of course five of his six TB losses came in GS losses (2 against titspiss and 3 against djovak). He also lost both TBs against Millman last year, and looking a bit back the crucial TB vs delpo in 2017 too (missing 4 set points, no less). Confidence tells, or lack of it rather.

 

[StrongRule]

This was the match that Federer could've and should've won. This wasn't Djokovic 2015 on the other side of the net. Federer is older but he could've got the job done against a weaker Djokovic. The fairytale slam run wherein he beats Nadal and Djokovic back to back. And he was the better player throughout most of the match too. But credit to the man of rubber with the will of iron. He stayed clutch where it mattered most - the tiebreakers. Imagine Djokovic of 2012 RG - 2014 RG outclutching Fed like this in a Wimbledon final

Against what version of Federer? Federer in 2012 was so much better than in 2019, this isn't even close. If you are talking about 2019 Federer though then he would have lost to prime Djokovic in 4 sets at most.

 

[Towny]

Against what version of Federer? Federer in 2012 was so much better than in 2019, this isn't even close. If you are talking about 2019 Federer though then he would have lost to prime Djokovic in 4 sets at most.

I meant when they're playing at equivalent levels. Say 2019 Djokovic and 2019 Federer. Or 2015 Djokovic and 2007 Federer. Prime Djokovic wouldn't need to outclutch 2019 Federer because he'd be better.

 

[deaner2211]

Compare that to the previous game, where Djokovic blows a 30-0 lead to get broken with 2 bad FH UEs (I'd say just 1 of Federer's 2 was bad - the other isn't 'good' obviously, but part and parcel of how he plays) and Federer making a great pass (similar to the one Djokovic made next game)

You can't say that Djokovic choked because he won the match. It does not matter what lead he had and lost because he fought back and won. However, Federer did choke because he lost. At 40-15 with 2 match points nothing that happened before that mattered. People say Fed is the GOAT but GOATS are clutch. When it came to clutch shots, Jordan didn't need two because he is the GOAT. Fed has two opportunities and lost both. You can post all the stats you want but there is only one stat the matters.

 

[Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil]

You can't say that Djokovic choked because he won the match. It does not matter what lead he had and lost because he fought back and won. However, Federer did choke because he lost. At 40-15 with 2 match points nothing that happened before that mattered. People say Fed is the GOAT but GOATS are clutch. When it came to clutch shots, Jordan didn't need two because he is the GOAT. Fed has two opportunities and lost both. You can post all the stats you want but there is only one stat the matters.

Djokovic choked that particular game away, duh. Choking doesn't refer just to the final end result.

 

[Waspsting]

(regarding the idea that Djokovic losing his serve was as big a 'choke' as Federer following suit)...
It's always been the same though. It's a bit Fed's fault though since he's clear that he always regards a match as being on his racket.

Wouldn't that focus more attention on Djokovic's choke instead of Federer's?

If the match is on Fed's racquet - and I agree it usually is, that's his style - unforced errors goes with the territory
But Djokovic... his style of is more solid and less attacking... for him to lose serve via a bunch of unforced errors is more uncommon

What do you think?

We all use the phrase 'choke', but I suspect not all of us are picturing the same thing when we use the word

To me, choking is a dip in playing level, especially at critical junctures and to the extent of the dip being 'bad play' (i.e. making unforced errors.... dipping from hitting winners to forcing errors isn't a choke), from the level of play the guy is currently playing at

A match which Fed is said to have choked is the US Open final 2015... he missed a ton of break points, frequently with unforced errors. I don't see that as a choke because he was making the same type of unforced errors at all other times too

(it'd be fairly easy to test this statistically... just take a random scoreline, say Federer with 30 while returning and see how many errors he makes on that point. And measure it against how many he makes when he's on 40 and has break points)

A classic choke is Djokovic at the end of first set of 2008 USO final. Guy had made 1 or 2 errors all set, then 40-15 serving for the set makes nothing but errors to get broken. And continues making them to lose the set. And when the next set starts, lo and behold, he's back to playing solid

 

[Fedforever]

We all use the phrase 'choke', but I suspect not all of us are picturing the same thing when we use the word

Matthew Syed wrote a book "Bounce" which has a big section on choking - which he experienced himself in an Olympics match.

His theory is that it's when you start "thinking" the things you normally do instinctively - so you're consciously thinking about the way you hit the forehand rather than just doing it - of course this makes you a fraction of a second slower.

From the way you've described the match it seems like both players were just tired - hardly surprising considering they're both over 30.

 

[krosero]

At the USO the ESPN commentators said that Djokovic made exactly zero UEs in his 3 tiebreaks against Federer at Wimbledon. They said it must be some kind of record.

Federer has always played great tiebreaks and he's played many great ones in GS finals over the years, but I think what Djokovic did with these 3 TB's is equally remarkable.

USO commentators must have been working with official stats, but Tennis Abstract's chart of the match also has Djokovic making no UEs, in the 3 tb's.

Wouldn't that focus more attention on Djokovic's choke instead of Federer's?

If the match is on Fed's racquet - and I agree it usually is, that's his style - unforced errors goes with the territory
But Djokovic... his style of is more solid and less attacking... for him to lose serve via a bunch of unforced errors is more uncommon

What do you think?

We all use the phrase 'choke', but I suspect not all of us are picturing the same thing when we use the word

To me, choking is a dip in playing level, especially at critical junctures and to the extent of the dip being 'bad play' (i.e. making unforced errors.... dipping from hitting winners to forcing errors isn't a choke), from the level of play the guy is currently playing at

A match which Fed is said to have choked is the US Open final 2015... he missed a ton of break points, frequently with unforced errors. I don't see that as a choke because he was making the same type of unforced errors at all other times too

(it'd be fairly easy to test this statistically... just take a random scoreline, say Federer with 30 while returning and see how many errors he makes on that point. And measure it against how many he makes when he's on 40 and has break points)

A classic choke is Djokovic at the end of first set of 2008 USO final. Guy had made 1 or 2 errors all set, then 40-15 serving for the set makes nothing but errors to get broken. And continues making them to lose the set. And when the next set starts, lo and behold, he's back to playing solid

Different styles do make a difference in this, the player whose natural style produces more errors will always seem like more a choker than someone who's more consistent, if you're judging chokes by the number of errors.

 

[MichaelNadal]

At the USO the ESPN commentators said that Djokovic made exactly zero UEs in his 3 tiebreaks against Federer at Wimbledon. They said it must be some kind of record.

Federer has always played great tiebreaks and he's played many great ones in GS finals over the years, but I think what Djokovic did with these 3 TB's is equally remarkable.

USO commentators must have been working with official stats, but Tennis Abstract's chart of the match also has Djokovic making no UEs, in the 3 tb's.


Different styles do make a difference in this, the player whose natural style produces more errors will always seem like more a choker than someone who's more consistent, if you're judging chokes by the number of errors.

Lol what a robot

 

[BGod]

Look, I'm a Fed fan since 01. Since I hated Sampras.

But him losing this match and the gravity of it makes the biggest chokejob in men's tennis that I've ever witnessed and perhaps all time. You don't get a pass for losing all 3 tiebreaks and serving out 40-15 when you're serving great that day to boot.

And against Novak he also had 2 other chokes with 2011 being close and I'd argue worse if that was a Final not a Semi.

It's strange to be sure but Federer is both the GOAT and the greatest choker as well.

 

[RF-18]

Djokovic won cause he was capable to stay in the sets although he was struggling with his serve and return, baseline play aswell even and Fed couldn't take advantage of that despite playing better. Somehow Djokovic kept pushing it to TBs, and that's where he tightened his game while Fed couldn't. 0 UEs in all 3 TBs is unexplainable considering what a rough time he had to find a good level pre TBs. It was like two different Djokovic's were playing in the match. And he won all 3 TBs against the most successfull tiebreak player ever. It's really unbelieveable that he pulled this off.

 

[Waspsting]

Federer has always played great tiebreaks and he's played many great ones in GS finals over the years, but I think what Djokovic did with these 3 TB's is equally remarkable.

USO commentators must have been working with official stats, but Tennis Abstract's chart of the match also has Djokovic making no UEs, in the 3 tb's.

Even I do - so you know its legit

Points lost by Djoko in tiebreaks -
2 Aces
1 Service Winner
3 Return FEs
5 Winners
1 FE

1 of the returns errors was against a second serve... 3 independent sources marking it forced is interesting

 

[weakera]

My new favorite bedtime story.

 

[Snaab]

The choke was Fed's forehand pass on his second break point at 11 all in the 5th set. He came back from 0-40 that game, narrowly missed a crosscourt slice on the first breakpoint (no choke there), but he had a such a good look at his forehand on the second break point. He hits a benign forehand crosscourt passing shot that lacks any meaningful pace or angle. Played with way too much net clearance, gave Djoke a relatively easy forehand volley (which Djoke did not even put away). Fed could've pounded the forehand up the line or at least forced Djokovic to hit a tough low crosscourt volley - did neither. That's the one to lose sleep on. Chance to serve for the title at 12-11 never happens.