Nole fans, should he fight for 7th YE n1?

[mehdimike]

It's a weird world where a guy who won 3 slams might actually lose the YE #1 ranking to a guy who won one slam.

I can't see Novak travelling all the way to IW to pad his lead by another 1,000 points, assuming he'd win. He already holds the YE #1 record, I wouldn't play much if I was him. It's been a mentally exhausting year, to put it mildly.

Well, TBH I feel the other way around. How can someone end the year as #1 by not winning any M1000s. Has anyone achieved this feat yet? Even worse than that he has reached only 5 atp Finals this year. You can't just play at slams and then rest and chill out while other are working their ass off in multiple tourneys. Still he would mostly end this year as #1.

 

[maratha_warrior]

Even if Year End Number One was not on the line , Novak wouldn't end his season . That is not Novak's style to sit out 4-5 months after a tough loss , unless he has injury .
And he has done it only once after Wimbledon 2017 to heal from injury .

He likes playing matches and being match-fit . Taking long gaps doesnt help his game much .

He will participate in IW Paris and WTF and if he collects 1000 points , Year End No1 is guaranteed .
Hopefully, he wins one masters among the two and end this debate soon .

 

[Hitman]

Even if Year End Number One was not on the line , Novak wouldn't end his season . That is not Novak's style to sit out 4-5 months after a tough loss , unless he has injury .
And he has done it only once after Wimbledon 2017 to heal from injury .

He likes playing matches and being match-fit . Taking long gaps doesnt help his game much .

He will participate in IW Paris and WTF and if he collects 1000 points , Year End No1 is guaranteed .
Hopefully, he wins one masters among the two and end this debate soon .

Even if he makes a semi and a quarter between IW and Paris, it should still be enough. He doesn't need to do too much IMO.

 

[irishnadalfan1983]

Medieval era is upon all now, but I expect Djokovic to fight and make a last stand. He will not want yet another massive milestone slip away after losing at USO. He doesn't even need to win much.

True but is there really even a debate?? I'd imagine he is planning to play Paris and YEC anyway.....Can't seem him flying to California in 3 weeks....He must be exchausted and he doesn't even need to go there points wise...

 

[uscwang]

Even if he makes a semi and a quarter between IW and Paris, it should still be enough. He doesn't need to do too much IMO.

But he is only about 1800 pts ahead of Tsitsipas in the race (2800 ahead of Medvedev). If Tsitsipas goes wild and plays every tournament left, e.g. San Diego 250, IW 1000, Vienna 500, Paris 1000, WTF 1500. That's 4250 max pts.

 

[thrust]

If he wants to be fresh for 2022, especially mentally, no he shouldn't.

Being a Novak fan, I accept the likelihood that Novak will probably never have a chance at another YE at #1 after this year, primarily due to age. Therefore, it would be foolish of him, if healthy, not to try this year as he is so close. Chances are he doesn't have to win any tournaments but just reach semis or finals.

 

[Kralingen]

But he is only about 1800 pts ahead of Tsitsipas in the race (2800 ahead of Medvedev). If Tsitsipas goes wild and plays every tournament left, e.g. San Diego 250, IW 1000, Vienna 500, Paris 1000, WTF 1500. That's 4250 max pts.

Think you’ve got them mixed up, man.

race points currently: Novak 8370
Medvedev 6380
Tsitsipas 5470
Zverev 4915

Tsitsipas and Zverev are barely mathematically relevant but they would quite literally have to win both Masters and the WTF to have a chance. Medvedev could conceivably do it.

 

[uscwang]

Think you’ve got them mixed up, man.

race points currently: Novak 8370
Medvedev 6380
Tsitsipas 5470
Zverev 4915

Tsitsipas and Zverev are barely mathematically relevant but they would quite literally have to win both Masters and the WTF to have a chance. Medvedev could conceivably do it.

You are right. ATP hasn't updated with USO points. But Med is still close, with ~4000 pts to play for. I think Novak needs 10,000 pts to be safe.

 

[Hitman]

But he is only about 1800 pts ahead of Tsitsipas in the race (2800 ahead of Medvedev). If Tsitsipas goes wild and plays every tournament left, e.g. San Diego 250, IW 1000, Vienna 500, Paris 1000, WTF 1500. That's 4250 max pts.

Interesting. Race really is on.

 

[ItalianFan]

You are right. ATP hasn't updated with USO points. But Med is still close, with ~4000 pts to play for. I think Novak needs 10,000 pts to be safe.

If we consider only Novak vs. Daniil, Med is playing IW, Paris and WTF, 3500 pts. So Novak needs just 1500 pts to be safe, this assuming that Med sweeps all of IW, Paris and WTF, which is highly unlikely.

 

[Cortana]

If we consider only Novak vs. Daniil, Med is playing IW, Paris and WTF, 3500 pts. So Novak needs just 1500 pts to be safe, this assuming that Med sweeps all of IW, Paris and WTF, which is highly unlikely.

So 2x SF and 2 RR wins at the WTF should be enough.

 

[Vamos Rafa Nadal]

Medvedev was asked about this and he doesn't think he can do it, just too many points to defend (and Djokovic too few). So I think Djokovic will most likely get the year end #1 ranking. I would love for Medvedev to win it, just don't think there is enough time for it. Stranger things have happened in tennis though!

 

[nolefam_2024]

Medvedev is not the best on clay but he gained just around 400 pts in clay season due to covid.

Next year most likely Nole loses the year end ranking. Nole already has confirmed the 344 weeks at number 1. If he stays till January end at the least, he might add 8 more to get over 350. Steffi's record is 376 so not too far. Let's see. A lot can change if Zverev Rublev and others beat Medvedev early.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Had Zverev been in medvedev side of the draw, this might even be a moot question. Zverev would have taken either legs of Medvedev or outright beaten him. Instead he got FAA. What a joke.

 

[dr325i]

It's a weird world where a guy who won 3 slams might actually lose the YE #1 ranking to a guy who won one slam.

I can't see Novak travelling all the way to IW to pad his lead by another 1,000 points, assuming he'd win. He already holds the YE #1 record, I wouldn't play much if I was him. It's been a mentally exhausting year, to put it mildly.

Interesting reality however, it does show that a season is not all about slams. 8,000 points do not guarantee #1, maybe not even #2…

 

[Sephiroth]

Isn't YE1 based on 2021 results and not ranking this time?

Djokovic should be safe then

 

[GabeT]

Novak should go to Indian wells and should try his best to clinch the rank 1 position and of course he should aim for the YEC as well.

This is a no brainer, only fanatics of Sampras would want Novak to not aim for 1

He is a professional athlete who is fit, he is not some injured guy recuperating his knee or something. After the YEC when clinched the rank 1 mathematically he can rest the remaining time till the Aus open .... no big deal.... a few months will be enough

If I was Novak then I would fight tooth and nail to clinch this year end 1 because it will help break ties with Sampras and that matters.

Once again, we agree. And how much does Novak need to play, in any case? Reach SF in a few tourneys?

 

[Hitman]

Interesting reality however, it does show that a season is not all about slams. 8,000 points do not guarantee #1, maybe not even #2…

And this record is massive. Sets Novak apart.

 

[Sunny014]

Once again, we agree. And how much does Novak need to play, in any case? Reach SF in a few tourneys?

No idea about the points system.
I don't know how can someone win 27 out of 28 matches in slams in an year and not be ranked 1, so rankings r tricky, maybe winning indian wells or finals will seal it ???

 

[Sunny014]

Interesting reality however, it does show that a season is not all about slams. 8,000 points do not guarantee #1, maybe not even #2…

A person who can take 8000 points or even 7200 points will take another 7K-8K points.

Federer and Novak reached 15,900-16000+ types in the years when they won 3 slams out of the 4 and reached finals of the 4th slam.

 

[Cortana]

If you win all 4 slams, all Masters, the WTF and one ATP 500 tournament, you'll end up with 19'000 points. If you reach every final of those tournaments and lose there, you'll end up with 11'500 points.

 

[Third Serve]

I don't think Novak would go all the way over to Indian Wells but he will probably rack up enough points in the indoor stretch to sustain his ranking.

I would also be very surprised if Med continues his winning streak after winning the US Open. If he does somehow manage to reach the top of the rankings, I'm still gonna call Djokovic the real #1, but he'll have earned a newfound respect from me if he fights like that to get there a la Murray 2016.

 

[Sunny014]

End of Season ATP Points Pct. Difference Between No. 1 and No. 2

Rank	Country	Name	No. 2 Player	Points No. 1	Points No. 2	Points Pct. Diff.	Season
1	SUI	Roger Federer	Rafael Nadal	8370	4470	87.2%	2006
2	SRB	Novak Djokovic	Andy Murray	16585	8945	85.4%	2015
3	SUI	Roger Federer	Andy Roddick	6335	3655	73.3%	2004
4	USA	Andre Agassi	Yevgeny Kafelnikov	5048	3465	45.7%	1999
5	SRB	Novak Djokovic	Rafael Nadal	13630	9595	42.1%	2011
6	USA	Pete Sampras	Patrick Rafter	4547	3210	41.7%	1997
7	SUI	Roger Federer	Rafael Nadal	6725	4765	41.1%	2005
8	ESP	Rafael Nadal	Roger Federer	12450	9145	36.1%	2010
9	USA	Pete Sampras	Michael Chang	4865	3597	35.3%	1996
10	AUS	Lleyton Hewitt	Andre Agassi	4485	3395	32.1%	2002

 

[Jokervich]

Medieval is invading the kingdom. Is war an option?

Yes I think he should. Do you really need months of rest? 1 month of rest should do it, then come back for Paris Masters and WTF (Paris Masters is end of October right?)

 

[BGod]

Like Fed in 2017, Novak should take his chances as they come. Could potentially be his last opportunity if he plays so sparingly moving forward.

Theoretically he can lock it up getting to SF of Paris and winning Vienna or winning Vienna and making WTF SF.

 

[Sunny014]

IMO Novak should not skip Indian Wells, he lost in the 3rd round last time??? There is no Federer at Indian Wells this time, no reason to skip it ..... Try to make the finals/win it and take 1000 valuable points...

Indoor Season will be too risky, youngsters will be dominant in the indoor season and Medvedev especially will be a force at the WTF, it should not go down to the wire.