Should Rafa skip Grass Court Season?

[Gary Duane]

Kyrgios is the younger guy I like the best in terms of his tennis game/style but mentally he's a flake who has a long way to go.

I don't like Kyrgios's game because his return is weak, and I don't see that getting better. I don't like guys (watching them) who peak winning barely over 20% of their service games.

I loved young Pete. But when he got old, I didn't like to watch him much of the time because he started turning into a servebot. Federer was headed in that direction for awhile, dropping down to lower than 20% of return games on grass one year.

I hate watching poor returning because it means that most of the time you might as well skip to a TB for close matches, or just pay attention to the one break of serve in a set.

Whereas when someone like Nadal is in full flight, you know to pay attention to every game. He is going to break almost one out of every two games. Of course that only happens on clay.

Thiem's game is hugely overrated for me and he's not even close to being a Djokovic or Federer on clay. What I like about him is his calm personality and he seems like a decent guy.

The one thing I might agree with you about Thiem, on clay, is that much of the time he looks out of control. I don't think his way of throwing himself at every ball is good for longevity. But if he somehow stays healthy, I don't think he is finished maturing as a player.

I think he can win an RG, at least one. I hope so.

Zverev probably is the most stable of the three in terms of game and necessary motivation/mental stability but he's a giant and may have issues with injury. We'll have to see how it all plays out for those three. It could go in a million different directions.

There is an assumption that all tall guys get injured more easily. Maybe it is valid, maybe not. Considering the number of wrist injuries, which has nothing to do with size, I wonder if we are looking at the wrong thing?

You can look at Raonic and how often he is injured, but then we see the same thing happening to Nishi. DelPo is close to the biggest out there who is winning. He's only about one inch shorter than Zverev, at the most. Cilic is close to the same height. But DelPo has mainly suffered from wrist injuries.

I would think Alex would be most vulnerable in his knees and ankles because of his smaller ankles and thinner legs.

But injuries are so unexpected and unpredictable. I think they are more about good/bad genes than about height.

In any case, we'll have to agree to disagree because the younger players should be stepping up more IMO no matter how great Federer/Nadal/Djokovic are and how much fitness, medicine and technology have improved.[/QUOTE]

 

[shankster]

ummm... why not also skip clay ?... or simply 'skip tennis' ?

Why don't you skip this forum and spare us your vitrolic, hateful, abhorrent agenda camoflagued in the guise of humour?

 

[SpinToWin]

That would be beyond belief. I think even his fans would be stunned if that happened.

I'm already stunned to be honest LOL

 

[Fiero425]

With the luck of the draw, Nadal could very well get a nice quarter or semi, resulting in easy points. You don't know until you try.

True enough or he could come up against a "Serve & Volley" monster in the 1st round and drop some points! Which is more likely?

 

[zagor]

Only he knows how his body feels but with the way he's been serving this whole year, I think he has a better shot at Wimbledon than he had for years.

 

[Bukmeikara]

I think that given his age, Nadal probably knows that this would be, if not last, the best chance to have an impact at Wimbledon. He is extremely competitive and not to mention the number 1 factor, if he reaches it would be huge. I myself thought he wont reach WTF in 2017 and he is about to be number 1, mindblowing!

 

[Fiero425]

I think that given his age, Nadal probably knows that this would be, if not last, the best chance to have an impact at Wimbledon. He is extremely competitive and not to mention the number 1 factor, if he reaches it would be huge. I myself thought he wont reach WTF in 2017 and he is about to be number 1, mind-blowing!

That says a lot about him as well as the "also-rans" of the tour to allow a 2nd coming of FEDAL!

 

[zagor]

Kyrgios is the younger guy I like the best in terms of his tennis game/style but mentally he's a flake who has a long way to go. Thiem's game is hugely overrated for me and he's not even close to being a Djokovic or Federer on clay. What I like about him is his calm personality and he seems like a decent guy. Zverev probably is the most stable of the three in terms of game and necessary motivation/mental stability but he's a giant and may have issues with injury. We'll have to see how it all plays out for those three. It could go in a million different directions.

In any case, we'll have to agree to disagree because the younger players should be stepping up more IMO no matter how great Federer/Nadal/Djokovic are and how much fitness, medicine and technology have improved.

Zverev and Thiem are both stable or well-rounded gamewise (aside from their netplay). Problem is that that alone doesn't bring you success on the big stage, especially at a younger age. You need something special in terms of weapons, Kyrgios is the only one of the three who has that in his arsenal (problem is of course that he makes Safin look dedicated). Zverev and Thiem are just too vanilla for my taste, I can't see them yet making the best players sweat when the latter are motivated and focused (in slams).

Forget about ATGs, think about how say a young (barely out of his teens) Ivanisevic was dangerous on grass. I think he'd have even the very best sweating bullets if they were to face him on grass this year. Young guns used to relish facing the older legends and proving themselves, nowadays they seem to be content to wait them out.

 

[icedevil0289]

Zverev and Thiem are both stable or well-rounded gamewise (aside from their netplay). Problem is that that alone doesn't bring you success on the big stage, especially at a younger age. You need something special in terms of weapons, Kyrgios is the only one of the three who has that in his arsenal (problem is of course that he makes Safin look dedicated). Zverev and Thiem are just too vanilla for my taste, I can't see them yet making the best players sweat when the latter are motivated and focused (in slams).

Forget about ATGs, think about how say a young (barely out of his teens) Ivanisevic was dangerous on grass. I think he'd have even the very best sweating bullets if they were to face him on grass this year. Young guns used to relish facing the older legends and proving themselves, nowadays they seem to be content to wait them out.

i feel like kyrgrios kind of has that, problem is it comes and goes i suppose depends on how he is feeling about tennis atm

 

[Nadal_Django]

No he should play as he is the favorite for the Wimbledon title. He is in sublime form and when he is playing on that level nobody can touch him. Also contrary to 2012-2014 when he played great at RG but lost early in Wimbledon this year he didn't spend too much physical and mental energy during the clay season as his traditional rival Novak Djokovic wasn't there to be that extra mental and physical torn in Rafa's quest for his 2017 clay titles.
So watch out. Rafa is coming for the precious Wimbledon title this year, and nobody can stop him.

 

[TheMaestro1990]

Based on the last couple years I would give him better odds on HCs.

This could change this year. I hope it does. But first he needs to turn around the decline in his return game on grass.

I think will he do just that. Just look at he returned in AO and IW-Miami.

 

[Semidios]

Maybe Fed wins three

¿A three slam season ten years apart from his last one? Sorry even with the current field seems delusional.

 

[TheMaestro1990]

¿A three slam season ten years apart from his last one? Sorry even with the current field seems delusional.

With Djokovic out of form and Murray being Fed's pigeon since 2014, is it really THAT unlikely he would bag Wimbledon and US Open? Just look at the odds dude.

 

[ppmishra]

Do you think Nadal is that confident that he will simply win RG #11 next year? And full well knowing that he's had issues with his wrist and knees and back over the past 2-3 years? I doubt Nadal is looking that far ahead.
I could see Kyrgios, Querrey, Anderson, Raonic, Dimitrov, Zverev, Verdasco, Del Potro, etc all knocking any of the big 4 guys out of Wimbledon. Actually Raonic knocked Federer out last year, Kyrgios knocked Nadal out in 2014, and Querrey took out Djokovic last year also, and Dimitrov took out Murray in 2014 I believe. Granted that the big 4 were ailing or in a rut during those losses but that's part of the sport. If you're not playing at your very best on a particular day, you can be eliminated if you run into a big hitter. And last I checked, the big 4 are all in their 30s now and are nowhere near as physically strong or as robust as they were in their 20s. Federer already dealt with back issues and knee surgery. Murray had back surgery. Nadal's wrist issues cost him most of the 2016 season, and Djokovic also had shoulder and wrist problems among other things.

There are no guarantees for any player over 30 (I mention this number since this has held true for previous generations), especially with the current grind of the tour, but I think rafa is aware of this more than ever and there is every indication he is training smarter not harder like he did under Toni. The new style of play is to use his backhand more and run less and shorten points with more variation in his serving. Of course he is concerned about his knees on grass, but I hope he gets a good draw ESP for the early rounds and his current style of play should serve him well. Managing his schedule will be crucial for him, no question. Personally, I think he has one more RG in him before thiem hits his stride, but Time waits for no one, though one can hope he plays at this level for the next two years if possible.

 

[ppmishra]

Nadal has had a Federer-esque approach since 2012. After a shock defeat to Rosol, he disappeared for 6-7 months, skipping 2 Slams and then coming back on clay and peaking for RG. He played Indian Wells but opted out of Miami to manage his body. He also skipped USO 2014 because of a wrist injury and never recovered top form until 2 years later in 2017, skipping Wimbledon 2016 also because of another wrist issue. He's certainly thinking about how to stay in his best health so he can continue competing at the highest level. But it seems Nadal has a history of wrist issues and knee issues. Who knows how long his body will hold up. RG #11 is no guarantee.

But it's not just thiem, there are others who can break through.

 

[Semidios]

With Djokovic out of form and Murray being Fed's pigeon since 2014, is it really THAT unlikely he would bag Wimbledon and US Open? Just look at the odds dude.

Let him start with a multi-slam season by winning the upcoming Wimbledon.

 

[Mike Sams]

With Djokovic out of form and Murray being Fed's pigeon since 2014, is it really THAT unlikely he would bag Wimbledon and US Open? Just look at the odds dude.

Nadal can win anything if his health is fine. He should be one of the favourites for every title. But since 2010, he's only won 1 non-clay Slam title, although he's made countless finals across multiple Slams. The last time he ran the deck was in 2013 where he dominated clay and autumn hardcourts. But he had rested significantly going in. He skipped out on AO 2013 and made his big return closer to clay season so he could peak for RG. Then he went out in round 1 of Wimbledon and rested up for a couple of months before tearing it up in the autumn hardcourts. But this year he's been playing almost every event. And history has shown that he plateaus by the second half of the season as his body starts feeling the burden of playing so much. The last time he played a full season was 2011. If not for the insane form of Djokovic, Nadal might've had another legendary season. He probably could've won 3 Slams and 5 Masters titles in 2011.

 

[TheMaestro1990]

Nadal can win anything if his health is fine. He should be one of the favourites for every title. But since 2010, he's only won 1 non-clay Slam title, although he's made countless finals across multiple Slams. The last time he ran the deck was in 2013 where he dominated clay and autumn hardcourts. But he had rested significantly going in. He skipped out on AO 2013 and made his big return closer to clay season so he could peak for RG. Then he went out in round 1 of Wimbledon and rested up for a couple of months before tearing it up in the autumn hardcourts. But this year he's been playing almost every event. And history has shown that he plateaus by the second half of the season as his body starts feeling the burden of playing so much. The last time he played a full season was 2011. If not for the insane form of Djokovic, Nadal might've had another legendary season. He probably could've won 3 Slams and 5 Masters titles in 2011.

Wasn't Nadal healthy going into Wimbledon 2013, 2014?

I don't see him winning the title there.

I'll count on Nadal for the US Open though.

 

[TheMaestro1990]

Let him start with a multi-slam season by winning the upcoming Wimbledon.

Yes let him START with that

 

[Mike Sams]

Wasn't Nadal healthy going into Wimbledon 2013, 2014?

I don't see him winning the title there.

I'll count on Nadal for the US Open though.

Yeah, I think he was.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Wimby 2013, Toni said Nadal didn't take practice seriously and he had a bad attitude. At the time he probably considered 2012 a fluke and didn't expect what happened.

 

[ultradr]

I really don't understand why his knees have more trouble on grass than hard courts.

uncertain footing? clays are quite uncertain surfaces.

 

[zep]

I really don't understand why his knees have more trouble on grass than hard courts.

uncertain footing? clays are quite uncertain surfaces.

Mostly due to low bounce and perhaps the slipperiness of the surface puts more strain on his knees.

 

[ultradr]

Mostly due to low bounce and perhaps the slipperiness of the surface puts more strain on his knees.

Grass courts of last 15 years have much higher bounces than the classic grass courts.
Players reported hard court like bounces particularly after 1st week at wimbledon.
I guess it's a problem if combined with slippery surfaces.

 

[TheGhostOfAgassi]

I really don't understand why his knees have more trouble on grass than hard courts.

uncertain footing? clays are quite uncertain surfaces.

Players have to bend their knees more to get to the ball. And its slippery too. But the bending is what kills the knees.

 

[zep]

Grass courts of last 15 years have much higher bounces than the classic grass courts.
Players reported hard court like bounces particularly after 1st week at wimbledon.
I guess it's a problem if combined with slippery surfaces.

Well he has crossed the first week only once in the last 5 years, that too by just one match. In the first week it's still much lower compared to other surfaces as the balls skid through on fresh grass. But you're right. it's a combination of both the factors. I honestly don't see him playing Wimbledon for much longer even if he stays on the tour for a few more years.

 

[malbaker86]

Why?

Serious question.

Because the higher the rankings, the easier the draws become (in theory, and on paper).

as you become older, this becomes more important

 

[ultradr]

Because the higher the rankings, the easier the draws become (in theory, and on paper).

as you become older, this becomes more important

not just in theory, you really have advantages.

Since slams switched from 16 seeds to 32 seeds, we have much less number of upsets and most of top 4 seeds usually make the semi's.
Along with surface homogenizations, one of the reasons why we have inflations in top players career slam counts.

 

[ultradr]

I think he should skip the Grass Court Season to give his body enough rest then return during NA events.
No point in playing to get embarrassed by random journeyman.

maybe.
but not this year.
His form is very good

and he didn't exactly played a lot last 2 months, you know.
His court time is pretty low actually.
He is pretty well rested already coming into short grass season this year.

 

[gn]

Rafa posted on Facebook that he skips Queen's.

"I am very sorry to say that I am not going to be able play Queen’s next week. I am sad to make this decision because I love Queen’s, I won the tournament in 2008 and every time I reached the Wimbledon final it was after playing Queen’s. I was hoping to take some days off and then be ready, but at 31, and after a long clay court season with all of the emotions of Roland Garros, and after speaking to my team and doctors, I have decided my body needs to rest if I am going to be ready to play Wimbledon. Sorry to all the great fans in Britain and to the tournament organisers. I hope to see you at Queen’s next year."

 

[BeatlesFan]

It would be the smart move for Nadal and he already has Fed leading the way by skipping his least desirable surface this year. Let's face it, Nadal hasn't won W in 7 years and hasn't made it past the first couple of rounds in 4 or 5 years. He says he likes playing on clay but that it compromises his knees. He's just won a major and has had an incredible year. Why mess with his momentum by playing a tournament where he routinely crashes out to nobodies? (yes, Nadal fans, I know he's won it twice, but that was 7 and 9 years ago now).

 

[cc0509]

I don't like Kyrgios's game because his return is weak, and I don't see that getting better. I don't like guys (watching them) who peak winning barely over 20% of their service games.

I loved young Pete. But when he got old, I didn't like to watch him much of the time because he started turning into a servebot. Federer was headed in that direction for awhile, dropping down to lower than 20% of return games on grass one year.

I hate watching poor returning because it means that most of the time you might as well skip to a TB for close matches, or just pay attention to the one break of serve in a set.

Whereas when someone like Nadal is in full flight, you know to pay attention to every game. He is going to break almost one out of every two games. Of course that only happens on clay.

The one thing I might agree with you about Thiem, on clay, is that much of the time he looks out of control. I don't think his way of throwing himself at every ball is good for longevity. But if he somehow stays healthy, I don't think he is finished maturing as a player.

I think he can win an RG, at least one. I hope so.

There is an assumption that all tall guys get injured more easily. Maybe it is valid, maybe not. Considering the number of wrist injuries, which has nothing to do with size, I wonder if we are looking at the wrong thing?

You can look at Raonic and how often he is injured, but then we see the same thing happening to Nishi. DelPo is close to the biggest out there who is winning. He's only about one inch shorter than Zverev, at the most. Cilic is close to the same height. But DelPo has mainly suffered from wrist injuries.

I would think Alex would be most vulnerable in his knees and ankles because of his smaller ankles and thinner legs.

But injuries are so unexpected and unpredictable. I think they are more about good/bad genes than about height.

We'll have to wait and see what happens with all three younger guys, Kyrgios, Zverev and Thiem. At the moment they all have their flaws/good points but it's also my opinion that they should be stepping up more than they have been, i.e. to greater heights.

 

[cc0509]

It would be the smart move for Nadal and he already has Fed leading the way by skipping his least desirable surface this year. Let's face it, Nadal hasn't won W in 7 years and hasn't made it past the first couple of rounds in 4 or 5 years. He says he likes playing on clay but that it compromises his knees. He's just won a major and has had an incredible year. Why mess with his momentum by playing a tournament where he routinely crashes out to nobodies? (yes, Nadal fans, I know he's won it twice, but that was 7 and 9 years ago now).

Nadal shouldn't skip Wimbledon if he's healthy. His confidence is sky high and if he won Wimbledon twice before he can theoretically win it again no matter how many years have past since the last time he won it (see Federer AO 2017.) If he has a decent draw he can go deep. His game is more aggressive than ever. Djokovic isn't back to form and Murray doesn't look great either. The younger players like Kyrgios and Zverev can act as stoppers but they won't win the whole thing. Plus, if Nadal and Murray meet at W would you ever bet on Murray?

Would you want to see Nadal vs Federer in the final? Be honest. Would you be confident if that were the final? Because I think if that were the final the result would be 50-50 based on their AO 2017 encounter and the fact that Nadal seems to have improved since then.

But, I just saw he's not playing Queens so maybe he will skip the grass season. Who knows with him.

 

[cc0509]

Zverev and Thiem are both stable or well-rounded gamewise (aside from their netplay). Problem is that that alone doesn't bring you success on the big stage, especially at a younger age. You need something special in terms of weapons, Kyrgios is the only one of the three who has that in his arsenal (problem is of course that he makes Safin look dedicated). Zverev and Thiem are just too vanilla for my taste, I can't see them yet making the best players sweat when the latter are motivated and focused (in slams).

Forget about ATGs, think about how say a young (barely out of his teens) Ivanisevic was dangerous on grass. I think he'd have even the very best sweating bullets if they were to face him on grass this year. Young guns used to relish facing the older legends and proving themselves, nowadays they seem to be content to wait them out.

Exactly. I couldn't agree more with all of it. Good post.

 

[Alba Barragan]

Young guns used to relish facing the older legends and proving themselves, nowadays they seem to be content to wait them out.

Zverev has that, but when he said it out loud you all called him arrogant.

 

[Mainad]

Rafa posted on Facebook that he skips Queen's.

"I am very sorry to say that I am not going to be able play Queen’s next week. I am sad to make this decision because I love Queen’s, I won the tournament in 2008 and every time I reached the Wimbledon final it was after playing Queen’s. I was hoping to take some days off and then be ready, but at 31, and after a long clay court season with all of the emotions of Roland Garros, and after speaking to my team and doctors, I have decided my body needs to rest if I am going to be ready to play Wimbledon. Sorry to all the great fans in Britain and to the tournament organisers. I hope to see you at Queen’s next year."

So he's already started to skip the grasscourt season!

 

[zagor]

Zverev has that, but when he said it out loud you all called him arrogant.

I'm talking actions, not words. I don't give a crap who's more arrogant than whom. I rarely read or care about player's interviews or statements.