USO Odds?

[BGod]

The current Top 9 from Ontario Lottery and Gaming, which if anything typically undersells true odds to give themselves better margins.

I'm personally surprised to still see Zverev so high considering he may well not even play at all. But I DO think Kyrgios and Nadal are pretty well in line. Not to take too much from Canada but winning 7 Best of 5 matches in a row is going to be harder for younger or mentally fragile (Daniil) players as oppose to veterans. Kyrgios is simply on a massive hot streak so it's hard to ignore but by and large it shaping up a very open Slam since Novak's DQ in 2020, coincidentally him being blocked this year as well.

Felix may be the best dark horse candidate at 22-1.

Cilic and Busta could conceivably come through in a broken draw.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

Nadal will win easy. With Novak out, Zverev out, Meddy not in form then I see Rafa winning easy. None of those outsiders listed are good enough in my opinion. Krygios may have a deep run due to his good form currently though.

 

[Tshooter]

What about Egg?

 

[Pmasterfunk]

What about Egg?

I feel like we should be calling him Yolkovic instead of egg

Edit: I can't spell

 

[BGod]

Busta moved from 101-1 to now a respectable 81-1..... Hurkacz & Thiem both 41-1.

 

[SystemicAnomaly]

Busta moved from 101-1 to now a respectable 81-1..... Hurkacz & Thiem both 41-1.

"Busta move(d)" ... very clever choice of words

 

[BGod]

Busta's latest odds are in the 40s.

If Nadal loses early at Cincy I think his odds go down to maybe 7.

Shap can only improve from 67 he had after Montreal, already in high 50s.

 

[Deleted member 791948]

I give Nadal a 100% chance of winning the US Open after seeing him today, his service speeds are exactly where he likes them, averaged 114mph 1st Serve and 98mph 2nd Serve.
Served some double faults, but was only broken ONCE in a very very long match.
And his groundstrokes look very powerful too, he's shaken off the rust and ready to get Slam #23

 

[DSH]

What about Egg?

Fried!

 

[MugOpponent]

What is Coric? I can't find odds on him at any American site.

 

[BGod]

What is Coric? I can't find odds on him at any American site.

Ontario gaming has Busta at 51 but before he lost Cincy he was as high as 47. I imagine Coric will be anywhere from 40-60 considering his wins against Nadal and if he beats Tsitsipas whereas Busta was not as strong.

But yeah, in cases like this the betting lines are held back until tournament ends. Tsitsipas has remained 12-1 for USO despite already making Final at Cincy.

Can only imagine Medvedev will be dropping substantially. I think Fritz and Tsitsipas will be under 10 now. Alcaraz should drop below them or not much above.

 

[BGod]

So I checked back into the 90s and it seems there's nowhere close the historical precedent for back to back 100-1 longshots winning Masters. Yes, Busta was 100-1 at Canada.

 

[Entername]

So I checked back into the 90s and it seems there's nowhere close the historical precedent for back to back 100-1 longshots winning Masters. Yes, Busta was 100-1 at Canada.

No Djokodal = ATP becomes like WTA where anyone can win any event

 

[PSNELKE]

Give me Cilic any day of the week. He's won the tournament before and if he can reach a RG SF (with a favorable draw), I certainly believe he can win the USO on his best surface. I'll always pick the dude who reached the finals of three different majors and the SF on his worst surface (RG) over mugs who reached one major SF each

 

[Pheasant]

My current odds to win the USO:

Medvedev 3/1
Nadal 5/1
Coric 7/1
Kyrgios 10/1
Tsitsipas 12/1
Alcaraz 12/1

Nadal might get injured again, since he hasn't really had a chance to get match-tough yet. He's also quite rusty. Had Rafa gotten in 7-8 qualify matches at Canada and Cinci, then I'd have him as the overwhelming favorite.

Medvedev has a semi, and 3 finals(bagged a title) in his last 4 hard court slams. He's got to be the favorite. He has proven that he can actually win a slam in a decent fashion.

Coric was in the USO QF in 2020. However, this time, he is now serving 8 mph faster on average on his first serves. This kid is dangerous and is my #3 pick.

Tsitsipas could make a run. But he'll choke. You can count on that. But he's still kind of dangerous.

Kyrgios is likely a bad pick here. But with this field, even a part-time player named Kyrgios could cause some damage. To be fair, I'm likely still overrating him, due to his Wimbledon run a couple of months ago.

 

[BGod]

My current odds to win the USO:

Medvedev 3/1
Nadal 5/1
Coric 7/1
Kyrgios 10/1
Tsitsipas 12/1
Alcaraz 12/1

Nadal top 6-1 just for experience
Daniil at 7-1
Tsitsipas is my 3rd at around 8-1

Fritz, Alcaraz, Kyrgios, Coric, Busta, Hurkacz all around 12-1 given the right draw.

The Quarters are gonna be such a clown show.

 

[DIMI_D]

My current odds to win the USO:

Medvedev 3/1
Nadal 5/1
Coric 7/1
Kyrgios 10/1
Tsitsipas 12/1
Alcaraz 12/1

Nadal might get injured again, since he hasn't really had a chance to get match-tough yet. He's also quite rusty. Had Rafa gotten in 7-8 qualify matches at Canada and Cinci, then I'd have him as the overwhelming favorite.

Medvedev has a semi, and 3 finals(bagged a title) in his last 4 hard court slams. He's got to be the favorite. He has proven that he can actually win a slam in a decent fashion.

Coric was in the USO QF in 2020. However, this time, he is now serving 8 mph faster on average on his first serves. This kid is dangerous and is my #3 pick.

Tsitsipas could make a run. But he'll choke. You can count on that. But he's still kind of dangerous.

Kyrgios is likely a bad pick here. But with this field, even a part-time player named Kyrgios could cause some damage. To be fair, I'm likely still overrating him, due to his Wimbledon run a couple of months ago.

Top contenders are
1) Nadal
2) Med
3) Alcaraz
4) Tsitsipas
5) Kyrgios
6) FAA
7) Fritz
8) sinner

 

[Cheese&IPA]

Nobody is beating Nadal like if he stays fit, took 7/1 on him a week ago which I thought was an unbelievable price really.

 

[BGod]

Nobody is beating Nadal like if he stays fit, took 7/1 on him a week ago which I thought was an unbelievable price really.

Anything under 10-1 for an outright tournament win is higher risk than reward. When you have plenty matches at Masters tournaments paying 3-4 in more than foreseeable outcomes. Just recently Shap over Dimitrov was 3-1 at Cincy and Busta paid 4-1 beating Berrettini in Canada. That's real value.

Cilic at 60+ and Tsitsipas at 12-15 are much better markers in my opinion.

Unless you're betting hundreds.

 

[Nadal - GOAT]

Nobody is beating Nadal like if he stays fit, took 7/1 on him a week ago which I thought was an unbelievable price really.

I think once Rafa makes it through the initial 2-3 rounds, he is definitely the favorite. Rafa is difficult to beat in slams as they are BO5 and have rest days. Without Novak, he will be very hard to stop once he makes it past the first couple of rounds.

Though the issue with him lately has been the rustiness/ lack of match fitness in the initial rounds. It is good odds no doubt but betting on Rafa has its own risks as well.

 

[BGod]

Nadal has a powerfully weak draw to the QFs with Kecmanovic-Schwartzman being his worst case scenario. Then his QF is a likely Rublev/Norrie ticket. I mean......that's the PROJECTED case, upsets would veer into 2017 territory dumpster fire.

Even the SF relies on surprise heat or in form Alcaraz/Sinner. Yeah.....

Whoever bet big on Rafa at 6-1 or higher can easily cash out with confidence at SF-F level if they don't want to risk it.

 

[BGod]

Alcaraz & Sinner are the only Top 10 pre-tournament plays still alive and face each other.

Despite Ruud's seeding he was rightfully way down the list. Khachanov was worse than Busta and not even an option on most mainstream lines. Neither was Tiafoe.

But here we are. If the Final ends up Khachanov & Tiafoe by chance, it would be lowest pre-tournament odds since 1996 Krajicek vs. Washington where I think that one was still slightly higher (though Washington is one of the biggest longshots in OE).

 

[fundrazer]

Alcaraz & Sinner are the only Top 10 pre-tournament plays still alive and face each other.

Despite Ruud's seeding he was rightfully way down the list. Khachanov was worse than Busta and not even an option on most mainstream lines. Neither was Tiafoe.

But here we are. If the Final ends up Khachanov & Tiafoe by chance, it would be lowest pre-tournament odds since 1996 Krajicek vs. Washington where I think that one was still slightly higher (though Washington is one of the biggest longshots in OE).

Think commentators said last night that Khachanov's odds were the same as Jaume Munar's which is absolutely hilarious if you think about that for a second.

 

[Chanwan]

Give me Cilic any day of the week. He's won the tournament before and if he can reach a RG SF (with a favorable draw), I certainly believe he can win the USO on his best surface. I'll always pick the dude who reached the finals of three different majors and the SF on his worst surface (RG) over mugs who reached one major SF each

Cilic' got great odds for AO 2023

 

[PSNELKE]

Cilic' got great odds for AO 2023

I don't regret picking him at all. Match against Alacaraz could've gone either way, but his serve let him down being up a break in the 5th.

Former finalist and semifinalist in Melbourne I'd pick him as a "dark horse" again

 

[Chanwan]

I don't regret picking him at all. Match against Alacaraz could've gone either way, but his serve let him down being up a break in the 5th.

Former finalist and semifinalist in Melbourne I'd pick him as a "dark horse" again

I got a 100/1 in Melbourne on him, pretty great odds given his history there and the current field

 

[PSNELKE]

I got a 100/1 in Melbourne on him, pretty great odds given his history there and the current field

If I know one thing...it is that if Cilic doesn't run into Novak and catches fire, he can steamroll pretty much anyone. I personally don't bet, but if I would have to I'd definitely place my money on Cilic. I can imagine it being more profitable than going with Alcaraz who barely survived yesterday

 

[BGod]

If this is the future if tennis it will make more sense to put money on like 10-20 longshots looking at draws than any of the favourites.

I had Busta at 101, Shap at 69, Cilic at 67 & Tsitsipas at 12-1.

 

[DSH]

If this is the future if tennis it will make more sense to put money on like 10-20 longshots looking at draws than any of the favourites.

I had Busta at 101, Shap at 69, Cilic at 67 & Tsitsipas at 12-1.

How much were the odds on Ruud, KK and Tiafoe paying before the start of the tournament?

 

[Chanwan]

How much were the odds on Ruud, KK and Tiafoe paying before the start of the tournament?

Ruud probably around 20. KK above 100, maybe even 200. Tiafoe I reckon was around 70. All just guesses though, I think there's a place where you can view historical odds.

 

[BGod]

How much were the odds on Ruud, KK and Tiafoe paying before the start of the tournament?

Both Khachanov and Tiafoe were well above 100, Ruud was around 30s.

 

[DSH]

Both Khachanov and Tiafoe were well above 100, Ruud was around 30s.

Lucky bastards (or geniuses) who bet on them.