There are several reasons. One is age, and if you check return stats, the always go down with age. So the only way aging players compensate is by ending points faster, but that's risky. And it means that when they get in trouble, they can't grind the same way. So you see them push harder to take control. It's beautiful to see when it works because then you see all the experience and tactical growth come online. That's why you see all of the Big 3 look magnificent at times.
But look carefully at Joker so far this year:
28%. For just about any other player that would be amazing, but not for him. Why did he win? Because of this:
Service games won leaders and stats by career, year, surface and country from men's professional tennis on the ATP Tour.
www.atptour.com
Almost 91%. Put those together and you have 59.5% of games. And of course it's only fair to take into account the injury.
But if that stays there, that 28% on return, he's slipping. If it falls lower he's in decline. Then if he can't stay close to 90% on serve, which he has never done before in a year on hard, he's touchable. He can still win, but he becomes a bit more mortal.
So when aging players start to reach this point - it's already happened to Fed and Nadal - they start to know they are vulnerable, and that makes them choke more. I've been watching this happen all the way back to Laver and Rosewall.
Fed fans know that. Rafa fans know that. Fans of Novak don't. Sooner or later it will hit them in the face, because it always happens. But they just won't believe it until it's fact. Look at when Novak started winning. It was Miami, 2007, his first 1000. AO before his 21st birthday. Do you think for one minute that if there were young guys playing like the Big 3 were playing in their early 20s that the Big 3 would still be cleaning up?
If you are the fan of any of the Big 3, you can enjoy the weakness of the young players, but it should not be happening. Nadal and Novak should not be cleaning up. Fed should not have cleaned up in 2017. What is happening should not be happening, and the only explanation is incredible weakness in the young players.