Which outcome is more likely, Alcaraz eventually reaching peak Big Three level (2006 Fed/2010 Nadal/2011 Nole) or Djokovic winning the CYGS in 2024?

[Megafanoftennis100]

Honestly, I think that both outcomes are very unlikely. Djokovic will be turning 37 years old next year and Nadal is going to return to the tour to compete at Roland Garros.
Plus, Alcaraz may now have the mental edge over Novak at Wimbledon. I can definitely see djokovic winning the AO and maybe 1 (or maximum 2) more Slams next season, but all 4? I doubt it.

On the other hand, 20 year old Alcaraz barely won in a close 5-set-match against a 36 year old post-prime Djokovic who is a shadow of the player he once was back in 2011-2016. This may be even worse than Djokovic beating “post-prime” Federer, because at least the age gap between them is “only” 6 years old, which is actually very small compared to the 16 years of age gap between Djokovic and Alcaraz!

Whilst I did find this year’s Wimbledon match very entertaining and high-quality, it was clear as day that 2015 Djokovic would have destroyed 2023 Alcaraz at Wimbledon, and I bet even 2015 Federer would have done so too.
Unless Alcaraz makes a tremendous progress from now on, I do not see him ever reaching the level of prime Fedalovic.

Which outcome do you guys find more likely?

 

[Aabye5]

Honestly, I think that both outcomes are very unlikely. Djokovic will be turning 37 years old next year and Nadal is going to return to the tour to compete at Roland Garros.
Plus, Alcaraz may now have the mental edge over Novak at Wimbledon. I can definitely see djokovic winning the AO and maybe 1 (or maximum 2) more Slams next season, but all 4? I doubt it.

On the other hand, 20 year old Alcaraz barely won in a close 5-set-match against a 36 year old post-prime Djokovic who is a shadow of the player he once was back in 2011-2016. This may be even worse than Djokovic beating “post-prime” Federer, because at least the age gap between them is “only” 6 years old, which is actually very small compared to the 16 years of age gap between Djokovic and Alcaraz!

Whilst I did find this year’s Wimbledon match very entertaining and high-quality, it was clear as day that 2015 Djokovic would have destroyed 2023 Alcaraz at Wimbledon, and I bet even 2015 Federer would have done so too.
Unless Alcaraz makes a tremendous progress from now on, I do not see him ever reaching the level of prime Fedalovic.

Which outcome do you guys find more likely?

The butterfly has chosen Jannik in 2024 (So neither)

 

[MichaelNadal]

CYGS

 

[a10best]

CYGS for Djokovic. Alcaraz's game doesn't have more levels to rise.

 

[alexio]

both wont happen but if purely fantasizing it then alcatel option is a bit more likely

 

[djokovic the conqueror]

Calendar year golden super slam for Djokovic. All 4 slams + singles gold medal + Year End Championships.

Djokovic knows what it takes to win the gold medal and he will make sure he prepares for it because it's the only thing missing in his career.

 

[tudwell]

If the question is whether Alcaraz, at some point in the next 15+ years of his career, has even one season on the level of peak Big 3 OR Djokovic wins the calendar slam specifically next year… then the former seems considerably more likely, if only because Carlitos has far more opportunities available to him, while Novak has exactly one.

 

[a10best]

If the question is whether Alcaraz, at some point in the next 15+ years of his career, has even one season on the level of peak Big 3 or Djokovic wins the calendar slam specifically next year… then the former seems considerably more likely, if only because Carlitos has far more opportunities available to him, while Novak has exactly one.

I thought we were talking about 2024, not sure.
what other areas of Carlos' game do you see having more room for improvement that would get him to Peak Big 3 level?
1. not making a straight set match go 3 or more sets by going for 110mph returns or crowd pleasing droppers on the wrong point.
2.
3.

 

[RaulRamirez]

The first is an (there's the word again) objective achievement which hasn't been done in 54 years, despite Novak flirting with it.

The second is a subjective.

I'll go with Alcaraz to at some point have a three-slam season - not sure what else is required.

 

[TripleATeam]

A single year at some point being equal to the best of the Big 3? Unlikely, but doable, especially for someone with multiple slams before turning 21. It's tough to tell exactly what this means though. If we're saying 92%+ win rate with 3 grand slams qualifies, then I imagine he might get one.

Djokovic getting the CYGS specifically next year is under a 7% chance in the best of cases (50% chance at each slam, him and the field have equal odds everywhere).

I think Alacaraz's chances of hitting 92%+ are greater than Djokovic's CYGS.

 

[Kralingen]

Lol.

Carlos has a better chance of having a peak big 3 level season (3 Slams, YE #1, 11000+ pts) next year than Djokovic does of doing the CYGS.

 

[StrongRule]

As always, TTW users don't learn anything from the past.

 

[Mazz Retic]

10char

 

[DSH]

As always, TTW users don't learn anything from the past.

Next season Father Time will finish off the Cyborg of tennis.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Djokovic getting the CYGS specifically next year is under a 7% chance in the best of cases (50% chance at each slam, him and the field have equal odds everywhere).

Sorry, but saying he has a 7% chance at the CYGS is ridiculous. Why? Because it's been done once in the last 54 years. That's 216 slams played and no one has done it. But now a 36/37 year old has a 7% chance? The field has <1% chance of doing it.

 

[sten17]

Neither are likely, but of the two, Novak winning the CYGS. Due to his ranking, Carlos is now expected to win every match he plays. There’s a learning curve to always being under such expectations. Add to that the growing list of injuries at the tender age of 20. Lastly, Juan Carlos has to dial back his constant coaching from the sidelines. In the long run it’s distracting for Alvaraz, and he needs to learn to figure things out on his own out there.

 

[FeroBango]

I thought we were talking about 2024, not sure.
what other areas of Carlos' game do you see having more room for improvement that would get him to Peak Big 3 level?
1. not making a straight set match go 3 or more sets by going for 110mph returns or crowd pleasing droppers on the wrong point.
2.
3.

1. big 3 themselves weren't indestructible machines even at their peak.
2. Carlos has anyways, already had tournaments such as Indian Wells this year where he looked unimpeachable.
3. He'll get there in time, where he repeats IW 2023 more often than not. This isn't really unreasonable to think.

 

[TripleATeam]

Sorry, but saying he has a 7% chance at the CYGS is ridiculous. Why? Because it's been done once in the last 54 years. That's 216 slams played and no one has done it. But now a 36/37 year old has a 7% chance? The field has <1% chance of doing it.

Notice the key words "under 7% in the best of cases". This was an extremely liberal estimate. I don't think anyone thinks Djokovic is a >50% favorite at every single slam next year, so 7% was a definite upper bound. So just comparing Alcaraz's chances of ever having a 92%+ win rate season with 3 slams to that 7% mark can tell you something. Many already believe it's not unlikely Alcaraz will have 3 slam years. Some even pencil him in for CYGS, so I think 7% is more than reasonable. Therefore Alcaraz's chances are better, which was the point of the post.

Also, I didn't say the field has a 1% chance at a CYGS, I said if you massively highball Djokovic's chances, you get that he's even with the field at all slams.

 

[mike danny]

Lol.

Carlos has a better chance of having a peak big 3 level season (3 Slams, YE #1, 11000+ pts) next year than Djokovic does of doing the CYGS.

Carlos has higher chances next year of winning just one slam compared rather than winning multiple.

 

[Rattie]

I think it’s impossible to predict what level Alcaraz will achieve when he’s only 20 yrs old.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

Alcaraz option is more likely. Still both difficult to see.

 

[tudwell]

I thought we were talking about 2024, not sure.
what other areas of Carlos' game do you see having more room for improvement that would get him to Peak Big 3 level?
1. not making a straight set match go 3 or more sets by going for 110mph returns or crowd pleasing droppers on the wrong point.
2.
3.

Tightening up the forehand slightly so that it's not so easily rushed. Honestly I think that'll be a game changer of sorts – we kind of got a preview at Wimbledon with the footwork adjustments he made. Whenever he didn't have time to take any real kind of cut at the ball he was still hitting a very stable, loopy but deep, generally point-resetting shot, and I think he'll find a way to incorporate that to his game overall, probably through slight adjustment of his takeback (maybe a bit less of the racquet-tip-pointing-foreward Next-Gen thing at the start?) and just through shot selection – becoming more patient, more willing to hit the neutral ball rather than being aggressive even when there's not quite the opportunity.

I could also see steady improvements to the serve. He has the power. He can bang down some aces in the corners. It's just a matter of slowly strengthening his working serve, getting a little more consistent direction on the ball so that he isn't hitting so many serves right into his opponent's swing zone.

I'm sure there's plenty more but those strike me as maybe being the two most important (that I can see from my armchair here at home) – the serve and forehand are, after all, the two most important shots in the modern game, and I think it's his serve game that somewhat lets him down, while his return is quite strong (even if it can still be a bit inconsistent on hard courts).

 

[tudwell]

I think it’s impossible to predict what level Alcaraz will achieve when he’s only 20 yrs old.

Yes, I'm agreed 100%. I'm extremely hesitant to predict that he'll get anywhere close to the Big 3's numbers because so many things could go wrong over the course of an entire career... but at the same time when I see people saying he's clearly not a Big 3 level talent, I'm just like... the Big 3 themselves weren't Big 3 level talents at 20. No one could have reasonably predicted Djokovic's career based on the year he had in 2007. No one.

 

[Pheasant]

What is obtaining the level of the Big? I'll go ahead and give my version:

.900+ winning pct with 70+ match wins, 3 slam titles + WTF. This to me is playing a full schedule while winning 90% of your matches, including 4 out of the 5 biggest tourneys of the year. This defines the peakiest version of the Big 3.

With that being said, I'd give Alcaraz a 1% chance of hitting that in 2024 and Djokovic a 1.5% chance of winning the CYGS.

 

[ALCARAZWON]

Nadal peaked at 2008 Roland Garros, 2008 Wimbledon and 2009 AO.
He slowed down a bit after the physical struggles of 2009, and his 2010 RG and Wimbledon were not as good.
But his best US Open level was 2010, even though he'd slowed down, his serve was better than ever (but not for long, and his 1st Serve average was only 116mph in the 2010 USO Final vs. Novak).
2008 Olympics was probably his best hardcourt level ever, but it destroyed his knees so he had nothing left at the US Open.

 

[Rattie]

Yes, I'm agreed 100%. I'm extremely hesitant to predict that he'll get anywhere close to the Big 3's numbers because so many things could go wrong over the course of an entire career... but at the same time when I see people saying he's clearly not a Big 3 level talent, I'm just like... the Big 3 themselves weren't Big 3 level talents at 20. No one could have reasonably predicted Djokovic's career based on the year he had in 2007. No one.

Perfectly put. I agree!

 

[Megafanoftennis100]

Perfectly put. I agree!

Honestly, I think Djokovic at 20 years is very underrated. He was constantly overshadowed because he constantly had to play against Federer and Nadal in their primes, when Djokovic himself was not yet in his prime.
2007-2008 Djokovic faced significantly tougher competition than 2022-2023 Alcaraz. Djokovic had prime Fedal in their mid 20s, whereas Alcaraz has a 36 year old Djokovic who is nearing retirement and is a shadow of the player he was back in 2011-2016.
Let's break it down:
2007 AO - Djokovic was beating everyone except for peak Federer having the best AO run of his life.
2007 RG - Djokovic was beating everyone except for near-prime Nadal. Although I think he would have lost to Federer in the final even if Nadal were absent.
2007 Wimby - Djokovic was beating everyone except for near-prime Nadal, who would give peak Federer a run for his money in the final.
2007 USO - Djokovic was beating everyone except for peak Federer, and almost went 2-0 in sets. Carlos would have been destroyed by 2007 Federer at USO.

2023 AO - Alcaraz did not participate.
2023 RG - Alcaraz got cramps mid-match against a 36-year-old Djokovic, whose worst surface is clay. 2008 Fedalovic on clay would all obliterate Carlos.
2023 WB - Alcaraz won this, but he barely managed to win against a 36 year old Djokovic in a very close 5-setter, which could easily have gone either way (also, Djokovic choked a bit on crucial moments). Winning a set against 2007 Nadal at WImby is easily more impressive than this. And if there were no Federer or Nadal, Djokovic would have very likely won Wimbledon 2007.
2023 USO - Alcaraz lost to Medvedev, and yes, Medvedev played a phenomenal match, but still, 2007 Federer >> 2023 Medvedev.

For Djokovic, he was advancing far into all four Slams and he lost only to prime Fedal. He was easily the 3rd best player in 3/4 Slams in 2007. If prime Fedal did not exist, Nole would have won RG, Wimby and USO that year, along with two Masters 1000 titles which he already won.
As for Alcaraz, he lost to a 36-year-old past-prime Djokovic and Medvedev. He won 2 Masters this season so far, but never had to face anyone on the level of 2007 Fedal. On the other hand, look at Djokovic, who in 2007, beat Nadal AND Federer back-to-back to win Montreal! And don't forget that Nole could have completed the Sunshine Double this season, had Nadal not beaten him at Indian Wells. So that's 3 potential Masters 1000 titles in the absence of prime Fedal.

To summarize:
Big Titles that Alcaraz could have won this season in the absence of a prime ATG player - remains the same as it is: Wimbledon, Indian Wells, Madrid - 3
Big Titles that Djokovic could have won in 2007 in the absence of a prime ATG player - RG, Wimbledon, USO, Indian Wells, Miami, Montreal - 6, or possibly even more, because winning all those titles would have given him a serious confidence boost.
20-year old Alcaraz isn't really much better than 20-year old Djokovic. The latter was just unlucky to be overshadowed by prime Fedal before hitting his own prime.

 

[tennis24x7]

Calendar year golden super slam for Djokovic. All 4 slams + singles gold medal + Year End Championships.

Djokovic knows what it takes to win the gold medal and he will make sure he prepares for it because it's the only thing missing in his career.

Not gonna happen. He wasted away the trillion $ opportunity of CYGS by attempting the gold medal. He will either win the gold medal or 2 Slams. He was pretty much gased at the US Open this year. Father time is catching up. Besides he will have to expend a considerable amount of energy if Nadal is back next year.

 

[ryushen21]

The Big 3 era is something I don't think we're likely to see replicated in the future. To have three players dominate the game in such a way for an extended period of time like that is exceedingly rare.

By all accounts, Alcaraz should be a dominant force in the next era of tennis. He has work to do to be more consistent in his play. The intensity is already there, but he sometimes has difficulties handling his opponents with ease. He will get there once he finds the right mental coach.

I don't see Djokovic hanging it up for a few more years unless more of the current players really up their level and consistency to make him work harder at the Slams. He basically walks into any tournament he plays right now as the favorite and unless someone is really locked in, they aren't going to put up much of a struggle. It adds to his records and his wallet, so why would he walk at this point? Maybe, despite his obsession with health and fitness, things will finally start coming undone for him. But I doubt that.

 

[FeroBango]

Honestly, I think Djokovic at 20 years is very underrated. He was constantly overshadowed because he constantly had to play against Federer and Nadal in their primes, when Djokovic himself was not yet in his prime.
2007-2008 Djokovic faced significantly tougher competition than 2022-2023 Alcaraz. Djokovic had prime Fedal in their mid 20s, whereas Alcaraz has a 36 year old Djokovic who is nearing retirement and is a shadow of the player he was back in 2011-2016.
Let's break it down:
2007 AO - Djokovic was beating everyone except for peak Federer having the best AO run of his life.
2007 RG - Djokovic was beating everyone except for near-prime Nadal. Although I think he would have lost to Federer in the final even if Nadal were absent.
2007 Wimby - Djokovic was beating everyone except for near-prime Nadal, who would give peak Federer a run for his money in the final.
2007 USO - Djokovic was beating everyone except for peak Federer, and almost went 2-0 in sets. Carlos would have been destroyed by 2007 Federer at USO.

2023 AO - Alcaraz did not participate.
2023 RG - Alcaraz got cramps mid-match against a 36-year-old Djokovic, whose worst surface is clay. 2008 Fedalovic on clay would all obliterate Carlos.
2023 WB - Alcaraz won this, but he barely managed to win against a 36 year old Djokovic in a very close 5-setter, which could easily have gone either way (also, Djokovic choked a bit on crucial moments). Winning a set against 2007 Nadal at WImby is easily more impressive than this. And if there were no Federer or Nadal, Djokovic would have very likely won Wimbledon 2007.
2023 USO - Alcaraz lost to Medvedev, and yes, Medvedev played a phenomenal match, but still, 2007 Federer >> 2023 Medvedev.

For Djokovic, he was advancing far into all four Slams and he lost only to prime Fedal. He was easily the 3rd best player in 3/4 Slams in 2007. If prime Fedal did not exist, Nole would have won RG, Wimby and USO that year, along with two Masters 1000 titles which he already won.
As for Alcaraz, he lost to a 36-year-old past-prime Djokovic and Medvedev. He won 2 Masters this season so far, but never had to face anyone on the level of 2007 Fedal. On the other hand, look at Djokovic, who in 2007, beat Nadal AND Federer back-to-back to win Montreal! And don't forget that Nole could have completed the Sunshine Double this season, had Nadal not beaten him at Indian Wells. So that's 3 potential Masters 1000 titles in the absence of prime Fedal.

To summarize:
Big Titles that Alcaraz could have won this season in the absence of a prime ATG player - remains the same as it is: Wimbledon, Indian Wells, Madrid - 3
Big Titles that Djokovic could have won in 2007 in the absence of a prime ATG player - RG, Wimbledon, USO, Indian Wells, Miami, Montreal - 6, or possibly even more, because winning all those titles would have given him a serious confidence boost.
20-year old Alcaraz isn't really much better than 20-year old Djokovic. The latter was just unlucky to be overshadowed by prime Fedal before hitting his own prime.

Ifs and buts don't exist irl. Hypotheticals do not exist outside of the minds of a few individuals on obscure tennis forums.

Nah. Carlos will 'obliterate' definitely the 07/08 'Ovic (Safin whooped him lol), and early 08 Monorer; and I'm only as right as you are in this fantasy discussion.

 

[Aabye5]

Alcaraz winning handily at the moment, and I try to stick to the winning team.

 

[a10best]

Tightening up the forehand slightly so that it's not so easily rushed. Honestly I think that'll be a game changer of sorts – we kind of got a preview at Wimbledon with the footwork adjustments he made. Whenever he didn't have time to take any real kind of cut at the ball he was still hitting a very stable, loopy but deep, generally point-resetting shot, and I think he'll find a way to incorporate that to his game overall, probably through slight adjustment of his takeback (maybe a bit less of the racquet-tip-pointing-foreward Next-Gen thing at the start?) and just through shot selection – becoming more patient, more willing to hit the neutral ball rather than being aggressive even when there's not quite the opportunity.

I could also see steady improvements to the serve. He has the power. He can bang down some aces in the corners. It's just a matter of slowly strengthening his working serve, getting a little more consistent direction on the ball so that he isn't hitting so many serves right into his opponent's swing zone.

I'm sure there's plenty more but those strike me as maybe being the two most important (that I can see from my armchair here at home) – the serve and forehand are, after all, the two most important shots in the modern game, and I think it's his serve game that somewhat lets him down, while his return is quite strong (even if it can still be a bit inconsistent on hard courts).

great observations.
- Serve. Being coached by JC maybe there is not as much emphasis or improvement on the serve. Even Djokovic had to switch to Becker to improve his serving.

I think we differ about his return game (for his level). During the summer swing he had to go 3 sets with everyone and pull it out with 1 break in the third.
Maybe I expect too much of him because he has such good hands and quickness.
-

 

[a10best]

1. big 3 themselves weren't indestructible machines even at their peak.
2. Carlos has anyways, already had tournaments such as Indian Wells this year where he looked unimpeachable.
3. He'll get there in time, where he repeats IW 2023 more often than not. This isn't really unreasonable to think.

I have to take the other side:
peak Rafa is indestructable at French Open
peak Djokovic; okay yeah he did lose to Wawrinka in peak form a couple times in slam finals.
peak Roger (pre-2009) was indestructable at USO and Wimbledon, peak Roger did lose on clay badly.

 

[BauerAlmeida]

Djokovic won 3 slams two of the last three years and made the final in the other one while Alcaraz only won one slam in each of the past two years and doesn't have any extra finals. Djokovic has been closer to 4 than Alcaraz to 3. However, he should be declining and Alcaraz improving. I don't see either happening but Alcaraz more likely.