Why did so many fans call it so wrong?

[Beckerserve]

He was definitely struggling. The "wise" heads of TTW simply couldn't see what was pretty clear, before and relatively early in the match -Nadal wasn't the force he had been.

Well done on calling it. Respect is due.

Thanks. You are also one of the very few knowledgeable posters here.
Sinner is the one who made me realise Nadal is washed up and that was last October. All 3 matches they played he served for 1st set. So signs have been there.
Nadal pulled off a miracle at FO2020. If Djokovic fails to get to 20 that match will be most significant of all time a long with throatgate

 

[junior74]

LOL

Lets see

Nadal is 26-0 at RG from the semis onwards, he has been practically untouchable, with only ONE match of those 26 ever going to a fifth set.
Nadal won the last four RG, and he crushed Djokovic in the last final they played there, including giving him a bagel only 7 months ago
Nadal hadn't lost to Djokovic on clay in over 5 years, and had won 11 out of 13 sets they played and dished out multiple bagels and breadsticks along the way
Djokovic lost two sets to newcomer Musetti in the fourth round, and was struggling to prevent Mateo take him to five sets in the quarters
Djokovic's decline on clay was clear, he had lost the weight of shot, the forehand was not as penetrating as before
Nadal put his foot down on an inspired Diego and won 9 games in a row, rounding off his form and being battle tested.
Nadal was 7-1 against Djokovic at RG heading into that match, and that one loss was in 2015 when Nadal was playing the worst tennis of his career



Yes, how can so many people get it wrong.

Post of the day

 

[GabeT]

It wasn’t until Novak was 4-2 in the fourth set that I thought “OK, maybe he has a chance”

 

[GabeT]

Sure. But that's not how tennis works. If you actually watched how they were playing it was ridiculous to write Djokovic off -as so many did.

It's fine that people couldn't understand why some people made Djokovic favourite -but all this stuff about him being a massive underdog and will be lucky to win a set etc was truly ludicrous. It's Djokovic in a slam semi in 2021. He will ALWAYS have a strong chance of winning.

After 20FO, when so many thought Novak had a real chance only to be steamrolled by Nadal, most are playing it safe. And rightly so. Even those that thought Novak could win did not forecast the way he won, including the virtual bagel at the end

 

[upchuck]

Because even Djokovic fans and believers were burned by the one-sidedness of last year's FO final - a match I picked Djokovic to win going in!

But at least one of the reasons I thought Djokovic would win last year's match proved to be sound, even if it was proven months after the initial showdown. Djokovic pushed Nadal at the FO in 2012, 2013 and 2014, years when he struggled mentally in the biggest matches. For several years now I've wondered what would happen if you put post-2014 Djokovic with all of the mental strength he has gained since then, up against Nadal at the FO in an era when he has generally had the upper hand in their rivalry. I felt Djokovic could take him.

What I got wrong heading into last year's final was the idea that the strategy Djokovic has used to dominate Nadal on hardcourts would work on clay. Last year Djokovic went for Nadal's forehand and it proved a terrible tactic because Nadal crushed him with that shot. This year Djokovic mostly stayed away from the Nadal's forehand, often hitting incredible, acutely angled shots to Nadal's backhand side. Nadal couldn't even dream about running around his backhand to hit a forehand. And so he couldn't dominate. Djokovic, this time on his weaker surface, again found a strategy that works against Nadal and executed it to perfection.

 

[Poisoned Slice]

Because I dksat

 

[Spencer Gore]

Because even Djokovic fans and believers were burned by the one-sidedness of last year's FO final - a match I picked Djokovic to win going in!

I think that makes a lot of sense. Quite often when people call something badly wrong they swing wildly to the opposite. But realistically there was no way this was ever going to be anything other than a tight match. The predictions of Nadal having an easy time of it were always based on fear/trolling rather than an educated analysis of the actual match.

 

[jstr]

And while Nadal turned on his characteristic "higher gear" in the 3rd and 4th sets, Djoko withstood the pressure. A good study on persistence by Djoko, and having make his
/ your opponent hit "one more shot".

 

[Raul_SJ]

Why did so many people get it so wrong?

You should have checked the live match thread when Djoker was down 0-5.

Every dunderhead was saying the match was over and that Djoker was hitting like a weak little girl.

 

[GabeT]

You should have checked the live match thread when Djoker was down 0-5.

Every dunderhead was saying the match was over and that Djoker was hitting like a weak little girl.

It is fascinating to reread that thread!

 

[Adv. Edberg]

No! I was 100 percent sure Nadal would win the third set after he broke Djokovic twice back to back and reached set point at 6-5 40-30 and then another two set points after that.

If Nadal had won the third set, Djokovic would have cowped.

Nah, to me it was clear Djoko would win the match when 0-5 became 3-5. Even if Nadal would’ve won the third set he’d lose the match in 5. Nadal was lucky he got that 5-0 lead otherwise he’d lose in straight.

 

[Antonio Puente]

Nah, to me it was clear Djoko would win the match when 0-5 became 3-5. Even if Nadal would’ve won the third set he’d lose the match in 5. Nadal was lucky he got that 5-0 lead otherwise he’d lose in straight.

That's a complete mischaracterization of a back and forth match. Going from 5-0 to 3-5 is one break. No big deal.

Djoker did not dominate the match. Domination is what happened last year. Djoker did what he had to to do, but was hardly dominant.

 

[Adv. Edberg]

That's a complete mischaracterization of a back and forth match. Going from 5-0 to 3-5 is one break. No big deal.

Djoker did not dominate the match. Domination is what happened last year. Djoker did what he had to to do, but was hardly dominant.

Nah, Djoker had that match and should’ve won third set long before the TB. Nadal managed to hang on that set by a thread. But really it was all Djoko pretty much after 0-5 in 1st.

 

[PilotPete]

OP would have meant a lot more if it was made before the match. Any old bore can be a Monday Morning quarterback.

 

[pj80]

It has probably to do with the fact that Nadal and Djokovic have never lost in the SF/F of their pet slam. Djokovic looked emotionally vulnerable against Berryteeny whereas Nadal won 9 games in a row against a zoning Schwartzman.

it's been six years since 2015... | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)

 

[Spencer Gore]

OP would have meant a lot more if it was made before the match. Any old bore can be a Monday Morning quarterback.

I said Djokovic was the favourite before the match.

 

[Raul_SJ]

That's a complete mischaracterization of a back and forth match. Going from 5-0 to 3-5 is one break. No big deal.

Very big deal.

It went from 5-0 to 5-3 with the break.
Rafa served at 5-3 and was almost broken again. Game went to Deuce or maybe even break point. If Djoker breaks there it is back on serve at 4-5 and Djoker wins the set.

Rafa is left devastated and inconsolable.

 

[daphne]

I was genuinely surprised by how many TTW posters -especially the longest serving and most prominent Djokovic fans -were calling the semi-final and tournament for Nadal. Even during the match, when it was clear Novak was decisively gaining the upper hand, they still spoke about him doing well to get a set.

It seemed clear to me that it would be incredibly tight but that Djokovic was the favourite. He has had the edge on Nadal for years now. Last year's strange RG final was the anomaly. Once Djokovic took the second set it looked very, very ominous for Nadal.

Why did so many people get it so wrong? Is it fear of their guy losing so they preemptively admit defeat? Are people blinded by what is actually happening on court because of their tribal loyalties?

It really is fascinating-psychologically.

There are two main reasons in my opinion; their credibility on this forum (would you believe it!) - being concerned about being trolled afterwards. Like we should care what others think of anonymous accounts on an online forum who predicted it wrong. And pure and simple being too placid and accepting something easily as a norm.

When Djok was down 0:5 I've opened another beer and muted the audio while cranking up Judas Priest. The rest is history! I've even picked on @Hitman on not believing. The moment I saw Djok waking up I knew my prediction (a win in 4) would come true.


He will win today in 3.

 

[daphne]

Djokovic was bagelled TWICE, and breadsticked in 2 of the last 3 matches they played. Who really was picking Nadal to lose this match?

 

[daphne]

It wasn’t until Novak was 4-2 in the fourth set that I thought “OK, maybe he has a chance”

Soft!

 

[daphne]

Nah, to me it was clear Djoko would win the match when 0-5 became 3-5. Even if Nadal would’ve won the third set he’d lose the match in 5. Nadal was lucky he got that 5-0 lead otherwise he’d lose in straight.

And 0:2 could have easily been 2:0 for Djok has he woken up at the get go.

 

[Nate7-5]

I picked Djokovic WLWW and it was LWWW. Nadal has looked more vulnerable throughout the clay season dropping sets to odd opponents and losing to Rublev.

 

[Forehand_Slice]

Nadal is King of Clay, only normal not to bet against him. Even so I did predict a possible outcome of Djokovic winning in 5.
Nadal was unusually over aggressive during that Schwartzman match, and it seemed more of a 'finish this match as fast as I can' mode trying to avoid the distance.

 

[socallefty]

OP makes one thread stating that he knows Nadal was injured during the second set and that’s why Djokovic won. Then he makes another thread berating no one for picking Djokovic to win except himself. How are we supposed to know that Nadal will get ‘injured’ and lose? It’s all a crock of BS.

Djokovic was hammered in the 2020FO final and lost to Rafa in Rome a week before this FO. He hasn’t beaten Rafa on clay in about five years. It is not surprising that most observers didn’t pick him to win and credit to him that he did.

 

[Forehanderer]

I was genuinely surprised by how many TTW posters -especially the longest serving and most prominent Djokovic fans -were calling the semi-final and tournament for Nadal. Even during the match, when it was clear Novak was decisively gaining the upper hand, they still spoke about him doing well to get a set.

It seemed clear to me that it would be incredibly tight but that Djokovic was the favourite. He has had the edge on Nadal for years now. Last year's strange RG final was the anomaly. Once Djokovic took the second set it looked very, very ominous for Nadal.

Why did so many people get it so wrong? Is it fear of their guy losing so they preemptively admit defeat? Are people blinded by what is actually happening on court because of their tribal loyalties?

It really is fascinating-psychologically.

Thanks for the pshycoanalysis Sigmund Fraud. You and tennis analyst should receive TTW medal for your analysis and prophecy

 

[Phoenix1983]

I was genuinely surprised by how many TTW posters -especially the longest serving and most prominent Djokovic fans -were calling the semi-final and tournament for Nadal. Even during the match, when it was clear Novak was decisively gaining the upper hand, they still spoke about him doing well to get a set.

It seemed clear to me that it would be incredibly tight but that Djokovic was the favourite. He has had the edge on Nadal for years now. Last year's strange RG final was the anomaly. Once Djokovic took the second set it looked very, very ominous for Nadal.

Why did so many people get it so wrong? Is it fear of their guy losing so they preemptively admit defeat? Are people blinded by what is actually happening on court because of their tribal loyalties?

It really is fascinating-psychologically.

Maybe because Nadal had a 105-2 record at RG before the semi.

 

[Spencer Gore]

Maybe because Nadal had a 105-2 record at RG before the semi.

Analysing tennis is all about what is, not what was.

 

[Keizer]

Swartzman should have beat Nadal as should Sinner. I was only person here who said Nadal was washed up. Yesterday proves me right.

Imagine saying that two players whom he fed bagels to should’ve beaten him. The shame is that there are many users who actually take your trolling seriously.

 

[weakera]

This is a very disingenuous thread. 35-40 percent of the poll had Djokovic and in October over 45 percent had Djokovic.

 

[zagor]

OP makes one thread stating that he knows Nadal was injured during the second set and that’s why Djokovic won. Then he makes another thread berating no one for picking Djokovic to win except himself. How are we supposed to know that Nadal will get ‘injured’ and lose? It’s all a crock of BS.

Yes.

Djokovic was hammered in the 2020FO final and lost to Rafa in Rome a week before this FO. He hasn’t beaten Rafa on clay in about five years. It is not surprising that most observers didn’t pick him to win and credit to him that he did.

He picked him to win for the same reason posters like StrongRule did, because he's a superstitious Nadal fan who believes in jinxes and other nonsense.

Either way, picking a player for the win is one thing, arguing he was the favourite is quite another. Nadal was the clear favourite, he just lost, upsets happen.

 

[ABCD]

I was genuinely surprised by how many TTW posters -especially the longest serving and most prominent Djokovic fans -were calling the semi-final and tournament for Nadal. Even during the match, when it was clear Novak was decisively gaining the upper hand, they still spoke about him doing well to get a set.

It seemed clear to me that it would be incredibly tight but that Djokovic was the favourite. He has had the edge on Nadal for years now. Last year's strange RG final was the anomaly. Once Djokovic took the second set it looked very, very ominous for Nadal.

Why did so many people get it so wrong? Is it fear of their guy losing so they preemptively admit defeat? Are people blinded by what is actually happening on court because of their tribal loyalties?

It really is fascinating-psychologically.

My take is that you know tennis better than anyone else on TTW. That is the reason why you knew in advance that Djokovic will win.

 

[joekapa]

No! I was 100 percent sure Nadal would win the third set after he broke Djokovic twice back to back and reached set point at 6-5 40-30 and then another two set points after that.

If Nadal had won the third set, Djokovic would have cowped.

Nope. Still feel he didn't have enough has in the tank to take out the 4th.

He would have lost in 5.

 

[joekapa]

I was genuinely surprised by how many TTW posters -especially the longest serving and most prominent Djokovic fans -were calling the semi-final and tournament for Nadal. Even during the match, when it was clear Novak was decisively gaining the upper hand, they still spoke about him doing well to get a set.

It seemed clear to me that it would be incredibly tight but that Djokovic was the favourite. He has had the edge on Nadal for years now. Last year's strange RG final was the anomaly. Once Djokovic took the second set it looked very, very ominous for Nadal.

Why did so many people get it so wrong? Is it fear of their guy losing so they preemptively admit defeat? Are people blinded by what is actually happening on court because of their tribal loyalties?

It really is fascinating-psychologically.

Would like your prediction on today's final.

 

[Forehanderer]

Analysing tennis is all about what is, not what was.

You're an analyst you say. Why didn't you post this before the match?

 

[Forehanderer]

Would like your prediction on today's final.

He only predicts after the match is over

 

[Spencer Gore]

I can't help it if simple reality made many of the long term "knowledgeable" posters here look foolish.

It was fine to make Nadal the favourite -I can understand that, even though I posted that I thought Djokovic was favourite -but what was utterly foolish was to suggest that Djokovic had no chance and it would be easy for Nadal, as so many "wise" heads on here did.

Always analyse what is, not what you hope/fear is the case.

 

[Beckerserve]

Imagine saying that two players whom he fed bagels to should’ve beaten him. The shame is that there are many users who actually take your trolling seriously.

I think you may not have played the game. They like Nadal himself once missed chances fell away. On clay that is normal.
Sinner and Swartzman out played Nadal at the start.

 

[PilotPete]

I said Djokovic was the favourite before the match.

Last year too? lol