Will Federer ever be back at #1?

[VolleyHelena]

I feel like this was his last ever chance to become #1 again.He has most probably lost it unless we see a magical recovery in the Asian/European swing and WTF

With the comeback of Novak Djokovic,Stan Wawrinka and possibly Andy Murray next year competition will become tougher unless all come back undercooked.

 

[Deon Sanders]

He is still the hands down favorite for the WTF

If Nadal does not win the US Open I would still favor him finishing YE #1

 

[TripleATeam]

I mean, he still can unless Nadal wins the whole thing. If he loses the semi to Delpo, Federer still has a very good chance at the WTF and the remaining Masters/Basel.

 

[BeatlesFan]

If Nadal wins the USO, Fed will be about 1800 pts behind him. He could still finish YE #1 by winning Shanghai, Paris or doing well at the WTF.

 

[deacsyoga]

His best chance is still this year, although if Nadal wins the Open (and I think he will, thought he would ever before tonight) it will be tough and quite unlikely. Still I wouldnt expect him to defend his Australian Open title, although it would be far less a surprise if he did than this years win was, and his overall points where he dominated the first 3 months of the year on hard courts, so if he doesnt do it sometime this year, and his age, it would probably be hard to get there at any point. Plus atleast 1 of Djokovic or Murray, more likely Djokovic IMO, still should rebound at some point.

 

[gn]

If Nadal wins the USO, Fed will be about 1800 pts behind him. He could still finish YE #1 by winning Shanghai, Paris or doing well at the WTF.

That will be very difficult if this form continues. TBH, it is a wonder that his good form continued for so long since the beginning of 2017. I also feel he has much tougher competition in BO3.

 

[TripleATeam]

His best chance is still this year, although if Nadal wins the Open (and I think he will, thought he would ever before tonight) it will be tough. Still I wouldnt expect him to defend his Australian Open title, although it would be far less a surprise if he did than this years win was, and his overall points where he dominated the first 3 months of the year on hard courts, so if he doesnt do it sometime this year, and his age, it would probably be hard to get there at any point. Plus atleast 1 of Djokovic or Murray, more likely Djokovic IMO, still should rebound at some point.

Very true. I agree that if he doesn't secure YE#1 right now, he loses the ability to do it in the future. He won't win the AO twice in a row and it will be practically impossible to defend both IW and Miami from Djokovic. Sure, Nadal also loses points there, but Federer will lose 800 more.

 

[mistik]

If Rafa doesnt win US he has a huge chance of becoming no 1 again.

 

[Tennisanity]

If he had lost playing well then yes he'd have a chance to be #1. But with whatever his hampering him now it's gonna be difficult to recover. So quite unlikely.

 

[Bukmeikara]

Very true. I agree that if he doesn't secure YE#1 right now, he loses the ability to do it in the future. He won't win the AO twice in a row and it will be practically impossible to defend both IW and Miami from Djokovic. Sure, Nadal also loses points there, but Federer will lose 800 more.

He can add with Rotterdam and Dubai, Nadal too has points to defend at Ao. Unless he win Uso plus WTF, Roger would stand a chance till Indian Wells

 

[ADuck]

Of course he can. I think Fed fans are getting way too pessimistic after this one loss. I think if Federer actually lived up to his fan's expectations he'd have 32 slams by now.

 

[VolleyHelena]

Of course he can. I think Fed fans are getting way too pessimistic after this one loss. I think if Federer actually lived up to his fan's expectations he'd have 32 slams by now.

I never expected him to be in a QF of a Grand Slam at 36.I'm not pessimistic but just trying to be realistic.

 

[TripleATeam]

He can add with Rotterdam and Dubai, Nadal too has points to defend at Ao. Unless he win Uso plus WTF, Roger would stand a chance till Indian Wells

He can, but therein lies the issue. Let me set it up as a math problem.

In the first 3 months of the year, Federer is defending a total of 4045 points. Assuming Federer will not play any 2 back-to-back tournaments before IW, but will play whatever else he can, we get a new total. He can win A 250 two weeks before AO, win Rotterdam, and win Dubai to gain points. That potential maximum is 1205 points, so Federer is defending 2045/3250 possible points.

Out of the same criteria, Nadal is defending 1545 points out of the same 3250 points.

This means Federer needs to outperform Nadal pre-IW by 500 points to take back the #1 position for even 1 week. This year, however, Federer and Nadal both skipped Rotterdam, so if we assume they will next year, too, then they defend 2045/2750 and 1545/2750.

If Federer is trailing at year-end by fewer than 205 points, then he can win a pre-AO tournament and overtake Nadal, regardless of Nadal's results.

After the AO, it becomes significantly harder for Federer to get back the #1 ranking.

 

[ADuck]

I never expected him to be in a QF of a Grand Slam at 36.I'm not pessimistic but just trying to be realistic.

When did you never expect this? Because he's won 2 majors this year. Seems like you're living in the past not the present.

 

[VolleyHelena]

When did you never expect this? Because he's won 2 majors this year. Seems like you're living in the past not the present.

I mean before AO2017 I didn't expect him to win another GS .He has looked desperately out of form in his last two tournaments and he isn't getting any younger,so this isn't such a pessimistic question imho

 

[ADuck]

I mean before AO2017 I didn't expect him to win another GS .He has looked desperately out of form in his last two tournaments and he isn't getting any younger,so this isn't such a pessimistic question imho

Dips in form are inevitable for all players regardless of age. For me this old age thing has been a recurring theme in the Fed camp since 2008. He'll bounce back like he always does, if anything, this year is a sign Fed will keep playing for a high level for another 4+ years. So anything is possible.

 

[AceSalvo]

If Nadal wins the USO, Fed will be about 1800 pts behind him. He could still finish YE #1 by winning Shanghai, Paris or doing well at the WTF.

No way. Fed missing clay season and Nadal winning USO seals the YE#1 deal all together.

 

[AceSalvo]

To OP's question, if Fed couldnt take advantage of Murray's and Djoko's absence, then he ain't getting to #1 again because Fed will never play a full schedule.

 

[VolleyHelena]

Dips in form are inevitable for all players regardless of age. For me this old age thing has been a recurring theme in the Fed camp since 2008. He'll bounce back like he always does, if anything, this year is a sign Fed will keep playing for a high level for another 4+ years. So anything is possible.

4+ is high unlikely.I don't think even Djokovic,Nadal or Murray would play that long.

 

[VolleyHelena]

To OP's question, if Fed couldnt take advantage of Murray's and Djoko's absence, then he a'int getting to #1 again because Fed will never play a full schedule.

Exactly unless all other members of big 4 have a massive dip in form I don't think he'll regain #1

 

[icedevil0289]

i am going to assume there is no way for fed to clinch ye#1 should nadal win USO? anyone have the scenarios in which he could get no.1

 

[VolleyHelena]

i am going to assume there is no way for fed to clinch ye#1 should nadal win USO? anyone have the scenarios in which he could get no.1

If Nadal wins USO he'll be 1860 points ahead of him with only 100 points to defend.
2 Masters,WTF AND Basel can give Roger maximum 4000 points.
Very difficult but possible

 

[TripleATeam]

i am going to assume there is no way for fed to clinch ye#1 should nadal win USO? anyone have the scenarios in which he could get no.1

Nadal wins USO means he leads Federer by 1860 points.

Assuming they just play Shanghai, Paris, and WTF, Federer would have to outdo Nadal by 1860 points to come out ahead.

If Federer wins all of them without losing a match, that's 3500 points. If Nadal is the runner up in each, then Nadal gets 2200 points and still beats Federer by 560 points. If Nadal loses in the semis of both Masters and loses 1 RR match in the WTF, then Nadal comes out 120 points behind.

After Shanghai the possibilities will be significantly easier to list.

 

[TearTheRoofOff]

Voted no. I'm confident Nadal will win the Open (I can't believe Nadal will have 3 US Opens (note: Hardcourt); the same as Djoker and Murray combined... That's almost a farce to be quite honest considering Nadal's lack of consistency on the surface).

While the non-factors of Murray and Djokovic this year were a spot of luck for Federer in chasing the #1 ranking, he was also quite unlucky for Nadal to not only romp clay but go deep in a whole bunch of other tourneys, especially as Nadal should in theory be more wrecked than Fed with his physical ailments over the last decade.

It just hasn't quite worked out for him this year. I'm not sure what the turnaround for Shanghai is at the minute, but here's hoping Roger is well prepared to make a deep run. As I thought regarding the Dubai and Stuttgart losses earlier in the year, AT LEAST those losses perhaps gave him enough time to recuperate and storm the following tournaments. In this case it happens to be at a slam, which sucks, but maybe it will give him that little of extra energy for the indoor season.

 

[GOATzilla]

Asian swing - 1500 pts
Basel - 500
Paris masters - 1000
WTF - 1500
---------------------------
Total - 4500 pts

Federer can potentially add 4500 points to his tally. So of course he has extremely good chances to end the year as #1, even IF Nadal goes the distance in New York (which I don't think he will).

 

[Bartelby]

It's far better for Federer to play less and less and focus all eforts on slams than to waste himself on chasing number one.

 

[wangs78]

His only shot is this year, so I think he will approach all remaining events on his schedule for this year seriously and with purpose. But the outcome depends equally on Rafa, so let's see what happens, starting with the SF with Delpo on Fri.

 

[Bender]

Probably not, unless Nadal loses to Delpo and falls off for the rest of the season (possible), AND Federer sweeps the indoor swing (unlikely).

 

[kevin qmto]

He'll surely need some help, I'm not positive he'll ever be #1 again, not that he needs to as anything to his legacy. Let's see how Nadal handles Delpo and then Fed's game state will be more clear.

 

[titoelcolombiano]

I voted no, not because he isn't capable, because it is probably not a priority for Fed when planning his schedule these days.

 

[chjtennis]

The year has been so unpredictable. I honestly think we have to wait until USO, but looks like Nadal will win it so maybe not this year.

 

[NatF]

It's not longer in his hands for this year. Still had a better year than I could have possibly hoped for.

 

[chjtennis]

I think Federer could still have a good run like Murray had last year and snatch YE#1. We'll see.

 

[Julian Houston]

YE#1 not impossible, Nadal is garbage on indoor hard.

Either Nadal make runs to face him and lose in H2H or Nadal tank early.

 

[KINGROGER]

Needs Del Potro to win tomorrow then I'd favour him.

 

[VolleyHelena]

Needs Del Potro to win tomorrow then I'd favour him.

Would you say that this is his last chance?

 

[KINGROGER]

Would you say that this is his last chance?

Last chance at YE#1.

He could still get back to number 1. If he sweeps a few indoor events and close the gap with Rafa. Then needs a deep AO run with Rafa going out very early.

 

[Tennis_Hands]

Doubtful.

He cannot maintain competitiveness for the rest of the season at his age and even if he could Nadal has too big of an advantage at the moment.

That is even without even considering his back problem.

In 2018 he has a ton of points to defend and will have even more competition.

It is very very unlikely, but it is also clear that he has other priorities.

 

[albertobra]

Voted yes. Absolutely he can, and pretty clear that this is what he is aiming.

 

[Tennis_Hands]

Voted yes. Absolutely he can, and pretty clear that this is what he is aiming.

What makes you think that?

 

[albertobra]

What makes you think that?

Because Roger Federer is a fighter on court and he is going to take his time to come back for next tournaments in 100% conditions. And history says he usually ends season with excellent results.
The math says that full ATP points still avaliabe for him at Shanghai, Paris and WTF. He has nothing to defend from 2016.

 

[Tennis_Hands]

Because Roger Federer is a fighter on court and he is going to take his time to come back for next tournaments in 100% conditions. And history says he usually ends season with excellent results.
The math says that full ATP points still avaliabe for him at Shanghai, Paris and WTF. He has nothing to defend from 2016.

If Nadal wins USO he will be almost 2000? points ahead.

Federer has to win everything till the end of the season AND Nadal should basically not make it past the QF of any tournament he plays in for that to happen.

Not likely.

Also back problem for Federer.

Also, he missed many tournaments where he could have gained valuable points, which says that he is firmly focused on the biggest titles.

WTF is next, but IMO, not much until then.

 

[albertobra]

If Nadal wins USO he will be almost 2000? points ahead.

Federer has to win everything till the end of the season AND Nadal should basically not make it past the QF of any tournament he plays in for that to happen.

Not likely.

Also back problem for Federer.

Also, he missed many tournaments where he could have gained valuable points, which says that he is firmly focused on the biggest titles.

WTF is next, but IMO, not much until then.

Of course not easy. But we don't know if Rafa will win USO! There is JMDP on the way, and let's not understimade Kevin Anderson, in eventual final.
That is why I feel to keep scenario open.

 

[Phoenix1983]

If Nadal wins the USO, then no chance.

If Del Potro defeats Nadal in the semis, then Fed still has a chance - and tbh, I'd like him to finish at #1, because Nadal winning only 1 slam to Fed's 2 wouldn't really deserve the top spot (unless there was a Murray-Djokovic 2016 type scenario).

 

[Roddick85]

For Federer to have a chance to be #1 again, he needs to either have Nadal not win the USO or to have a 2011 like kind of dominance during the indoor swing which I think is quite unlikely. Nadal's never been a great performer post USO which should play in Federer's favor, but Federer's form is quite questionable at the moment so who knows how many points he can really collect. If Federer doesn't claim back #1 at some point this year then I don't think it's happening ever again. An aging body, tons of points to defend in 2018, hate to pronounce the "R" word, but we're getting closer to that every day.

 

[Tennis_Hands]

Of course not easy. But we don't know if Rafa will win USO! There is JMDP on the way, and let's not understimade Kevin Anderson, in eventual final.
That is why I feel to keep scenario open.

Yes, yes, I was talking about the most unfavourable for Federer scenario.

IMO, Federer will still focus on the WTF with the outside possibility to attack #1, if Nadal doesn't win the USO and is performing badly.

I am certain that Federer will miss at least one of the remaining tourneys and possibly two.

 

[BGod]

Assume Nadal wins USO. It's not so much about #YE but setting up for next season.

Nadal would have a ton of points to defend on clay and if he has repeats of 2015-2016 Federer can make a move there.

Or Fed keeps half of his points from the fjrst triple crown and Nadal is a hot mess and decides to play clay season a bit.

Really depends how close Fed gets this year. If he finished like 500 back I'm sure he'd regret not playing Rome & RG. But yes I know about Wimbledon.

 

[Gazelle]

Voted no. I'm confident Nadal will win the Open (I can't believe Nadal will have 3 US Opens (note: Hardcourt); the same as Djoker and Murray combined... That's almost a farce to be quite honest considering Nadal's lack of consistency on the surface).

It's a farce indeed. One can get a cakewalk draw maybe once to win a slam. But Nadal will have won all 3 of his USO courtesy of the biggest jokes of draws we've ever seen.

 

[D.Nalby12]

Pray for JMDP' victory otherwise unfortunately he will never#1 again.

 

[jimjam]

Not impossible but it's looking unlikely now.

Bit of a shame. Would have been amazing to end his career with a new record. Oldest man to reach #1 in ATP rankings in open era.

I believe that would have been the case?