How do you rate Federer's chances at AO 17?
- Thread starter underground
- Start date
Jackuar
Hall of Fame
Yes. Period.
What will make things any different and difficult for Roger, will only be the seedings and the draws. If you decipher my take on his chances and see how it fits in the draws, you'll see that I'm not calculating a AO win for him. All it finally means is that he'll eventually reach QF easily, which is not much different to what he's been achieving the past 10+ years. His chances at SF and Final if he reaches, are as usual - 50% against a quality opponent. I'm not guessing anything out of the ordinary.
TheMusicLover
G.O.A.T.
WUT
It's AO 2017, and nobody has seen Fed play for over six months... troll attempt I presume.
As for the question at hand: 0-1% chance.
skynyrd1611
Rookie
Not to win, but if his serve is on he can go deep.
vanioMan
Legend
Hahahahaha
Murray is and forever will be Fed's slam pigeon.
Fed doesn't tend to lose often to weaponless pushers.
uliks
Banned
Steve0904
Talk Tennis Guru
Well first things first, I don't think he can beat Murray now. If he gets back some semblance of form by mid year then yes he could do it, but not right away on a court this slow. This happens a lot regarding Fed's AO chances. Everybody's optimistic for a HC major at the start of a new year and then we get to see how slow the court actually is and people finally start admitting that Fed's chances of actually winning the event are almost non existent. I'll be very happy with a QF result, or a 4th RD depending on who he draws.
Wawa yes. Thiem? Not so sure. He could probably still beat Thiem with one arm tied behind his back. Well not quite, but you know what I mean.
Wawa yes. Thiem? Not so sure. He could probably still beat Thiem with one arm tied behind his back. Well not quite, but you know what I mean.
Last edited:
The ooold and washed up Granpaa?!
He may be a grandpa but he's still way better than most of the mugs on tour. Only injuries prevented him from being top 2 this season.
Hahahaha no way Fed struggles with Murray. He owns pigeon Murray at grand slams and since like 2012 when he started taking masters seriously.
Depends if the Maestro or Fed-error turns up, but I think he can deal with the usual Berdych, Thiem etc but it could be a bit much to beat Murray, Djokovic or even Nadal in his state over BO5 this soon, but it is Federer so I wouldn't be overly surprised if he had a good run.
Last edited:
Russeljones
Talk Tennis Guru
QF exit.
SinjinCooper
Hall of Fame
I seriously can't comprehend all the assertion that, "Well, obviously he won't beat MURRAY..."
What in God's name has changed about Murray beyond having a different number next to his name, that's suddenly going to turn around a one-sided rivalry that has, if anything, become even more one-sided in recent years?
Now, Novak has been well off form, and that's got to feel good for Federer and his camp. And maybe it'll be a little surprising if Novak can right the ship so quickly. But if peak Novak somehow does make an appearance? Of course he can beat Fed. What if Nadal somehow turns back the hands on Father Time's clock? Not expected, but if it happens, of course he can beat Fed. There are even a handful of talented, powerful, shotmaking guys from the field who, if they catch lightning in a bottle, are capable of beating Fed.
But Murray, no matter how well he's playing, has shown over and over again that he simply doesn't have any weapons with which to trouble Federer over a best of five. Andy's patience and consistency is a real weapon against the field, but against an all-time shotmaker who's seen it a million times, it's just target practice.
Fed doesn't need to avoid Murray to make a successful run, and in fact, probably hopes he gets Murray's quarter of the draw. Murray absolutely has to avoid Federer, however, or it's game over.
What in God's name has changed about Murray beyond having a different number next to his name, that's suddenly going to turn around a one-sided rivalry that has, if anything, become even more one-sided in recent years?
Now, Novak has been well off form, and that's got to feel good for Federer and his camp. And maybe it'll be a little surprising if Novak can right the ship so quickly. But if peak Novak somehow does make an appearance? Of course he can beat Fed. What if Nadal somehow turns back the hands on Father Time's clock? Not expected, but if it happens, of course he can beat Fed. There are even a handful of talented, powerful, shotmaking guys from the field who, if they catch lightning in a bottle, are capable of beating Fed.
But Murray, no matter how well he's playing, has shown over and over again that he simply doesn't have any weapons with which to trouble Federer over a best of five. Andy's patience and consistency is a real weapon against the field, but against an all-time shotmaker who's seen it a million times, it's just target practice.
Fed doesn't need to avoid Murray to make a successful run, and in fact, probably hopes he gets Murray's quarter of the draw. Murray absolutely has to avoid Federer, however, or it's game over.
Last edited:
batz
G.O.A.T.
Your tears are yummy Vlad.
SQA333
Hall of Fame
Agree, Fed's level in 2016 when uninjured was insane and would easily finish in the top 3 in the world, ahead of Stan and Raonic.
As for AO 2017, if he makes it through to the 2nd week it'll be a massive achievement. Obviously the draw will play a huge role as he could meet Djoko/Murray in R4, or if he drops to #17 (which is likely as his Brisbane points will fall off and Dimitrov not far behind), Rafa in R3.
batz
G.O.A.T.
One other thing has changed since the last time they met - Ivan is back in Murray's box.
If Murray doesn't have the weapons to beat Roger in B05 can you explain why the H2H in Bo5 matches is 2-2 whilst under Lendl's guidance?
Seriously - some SexiGOAT fans need to cool their jets a bit. Your guy has had surgery - he hasn't just been out for the off season. As I've said before - Roger is 20/1 to win the AO. If you think he genuinely is a contender then you should be lumping on that.
Last edited:
batz
G.O.A.T.
?
Roger is 20/1, Murray is 7/4.
Counting not your strong point Vlad? Or maybe we're just taking a trip to your imaginary world again?
Roger is 20/1, Murray is 7/4.
Counting not your strong point Vlad? Or maybe we're just taking a trip to your imaginary world again?
DreddyTennis45
Hall of Fame
Even as Novak's biggest fan, it pains me to say that Federer is the favourite for the tournament.
uliks
Banned
Federer will be completely shut it down by the new Super Peak 2016 Murray. Rodge have never faced beast of this magnitude in his career before. Even Peak 2004-07 Roger would struggle against THIS Murray, and you, like a very knowledgeable expert of the game and unbiased analyst should know this the best KINGROGER...
Big_Dangerous
Talk Tennis Guru
Noelan
Legend
HaterFederer will be completely shut it down by the new Super Peak 2016 Murray. Rodge have never faced beast of this magnitude in his career before. Even Peak 2004-07 Roger would struggle against THIS Murray, and you, like a very knowledgeable expert of the game and unbiased analyst should know this the best KINGROGER...
octobrina10
Talk Tennis Guru
F
FuzzyYellowBalls41
Guest
I'm excited and anxious to see Fed play again. I'm not sure if he'll win it but I feel he can make it to the QF or SF.
BGod
G.O.A.T.
Frankly, if he has even reasonable movement, he can make it to the 4th Round on his serve alone.
That's the thing here.
Because of his ranking it's all match-ups from there but a semifinal is completely realistic if he gets those match-ups.
Having said that, since his last Final in 2010, he's only gone to a 5th set once losing to Murray (having been down 1-2). So he hasn't been very close to making it back to the Final, let alone in winner's form.
Chances are 1-5% just because he's statistically 5th most likely to win.
That's the thing here.
Because of his ranking it's all match-ups from there but a semifinal is completely realistic if he gets those match-ups.
Having said that, since his last Final in 2010, he's only gone to a 5th set once losing to Murray (having been down 1-2). So he hasn't been very close to making it back to the Final, let alone in winner's form.
Chances are 1-5% just because he's statistically 5th most likely to win.
Djokovic2011
Bionic Poster
You have to hand it to Federer fans - they're nothing if not optimistic. What gets me though is how steadfastly positive they always remain about his chances whenever a slam's about to get underway but when he inevitably gets knocked out well, duh, he's like 84 years old now so of course he was never realistically gonna win it (even though they believed he was still young enough to be victorious just a week or so earlier). Haha, they drive me up the wall but ya gotta love 'em.
tennisaddict
Bionic Poster
Anything less than a QF would be disappointing given this POS era
Did everyone forget how badly he got humiliated by Novak though? He won about 3 games in the first two sets. But oh now that Fed is a full year older he's going to clean up the draw easily just because Novak had a less than perfect season ending. Peak Murray also has zero chance of beating 35-yo match rhythm lacking Fed on a slow hard court because uhh.. why again?
metsman
G.O.A.T.
cmon you clown most serious Fed fans think it'll be a good result to get to the 2nd week.You have to hand it to Federer fans - they're nothing if not optimistic. What gets me though is how steadfastly positive they always remain about his chances whenever a slam's about to get underway but when he inevitably gets knocked out well, duh, he's like 84 years old now so of course he was never realistically gonna win it (even though they believed he was still young enough to be victorious just a week or so earlier). Haha, they drive me up the wall but ya gotta love 'em.
With him off the tour for 6 months there are a lot of unknowns.
If he has been working on his fitness intelligently and practicing, he might be the most prepared and rested person coming into the Open since there is such a short off season for everyone else. So his time off could be a plus. Does he have some good hitting partners so he doesn't have to knock the rust off when his is in Melbourne? If not, then this might be his warm up Grand Slam unfortunately.
To really have a chance I think he needs the following:
1.) Serve has to be on top (good chance he can be there).
2.) Consistency and patience especially in the early rounds. Hoping with his time off, he'll be better rested so he can take handle longer rallies and cover the court well.
3.) Still aggressive forehand
Not sure the draw will have a major effect (I feel this could fall either way). If he hits a top 10er early, he'd have to face them QF or SF normally. So get it out of the way. Imagine if the draw put him in the round of 16 vs. Murray or Djoker. Being fresher might help him then as opposed to facing them in a SF or Final. The hard thing would be something like a Murray round of 16, Cilic QF, Wawrinka semi and then Djoker in the final. It be great to see him win it but that would be tough. On the other hand if the cards fell in his favor imagine a Monfils round of 16, Thiem QF, Raonic semi and then Djoker or Murray. That wouldn't be easy but it looks possible. Plus by the round of 16 you might have a handful of top 10 guys knocked out by one match wonders.
Love to see him win. I'll always believe.
If he has been working on his fitness intelligently and practicing, he might be the most prepared and rested person coming into the Open since there is such a short off season for everyone else. So his time off could be a plus. Does he have some good hitting partners so he doesn't have to knock the rust off when his is in Melbourne? If not, then this might be his warm up Grand Slam unfortunately.
To really have a chance I think he needs the following:
1.) Serve has to be on top (good chance he can be there).
2.) Consistency and patience especially in the early rounds. Hoping with his time off, he'll be better rested so he can take handle longer rallies and cover the court well.
3.) Still aggressive forehand
Not sure the draw will have a major effect (I feel this could fall either way). If he hits a top 10er early, he'd have to face them QF or SF normally. So get it out of the way. Imagine if the draw put him in the round of 16 vs. Murray or Djoker. Being fresher might help him then as opposed to facing them in a SF or Final. The hard thing would be something like a Murray round of 16, Cilic QF, Wawrinka semi and then Djoker in the final. It be great to see him win it but that would be tough. On the other hand if the cards fell in his favor imagine a Monfils round of 16, Thiem QF, Raonic semi and then Djoker or Murray. That wouldn't be easy but it looks possible. Plus by the round of 16 you might have a handful of top 10 guys knocked out by one match wonders.
Love to see him win. I'll always believe.
Urkezi
Semi-Pro
He is indeed a clown posing as a serious and objective poster. But once you call him out on that he gets all defensive and plays the victim card. Pathetic, he can't even man up and admit what he is.
You have to hand it to Federer fans - they're nothing if not optimistic. What gets me though is how steadfastly positive they always remain about his chances whenever a slam's about to get underway but when he inevitably gets knocked out well, duh, he's like 84 years old now so of course he was never realistically gonna win it (even though they believed he was still young enough to be victorious just a week or so earlier). Haha, they drive me up the wall but ya gotta love 'em.
You read the title of the thread and write down the first thought you have? It called childish, you know.
C
Cenarius
Guest
Given the circumstances a 4R would be the best posible result.But a 1R exit wouldn't surprise me at all.
Red Rick
Bionic Poster
Are you comparing sweaty obese man throwing pointy objacts at a few circles in a huge hall with drunk people acting like their name is Al Cohol to the greatest individual sport in the world?Pretty much like Phil Taylor over on the greatest sport there is. Getting him at 10/1 this year. It might not seem like the biggest long shot ever, but you have to remember that Taylor has been odds on for his matches for years. If not odds on, certainly not 10/1. I'd say Taylor has a better chance than Federer. I don't consider either of them to be serious contenders. Still unreasonable to say they have zero chance, even if my odds on the previous post say something else
Red Rick
Bionic Poster
There's at least 3 good Roddick quotes for every situation.
'Who do you think is gonna win? Not me'
Roddick at RG
I expect Fed's most likely level to be around the 10th to 15th best player in the world. That's a crowded place level wise in the world rankings. Now, he's got a bigger chance to get hot and reach the semi's but stamina will be a massive issue. The group of players he might lose to is huge, and he might face better players from the 4th round onwards. Hell he might get Delpo in round one.
batz
G.O.A.T.
C'mon dude - he never mentioned snooker.
vanioMan
Legend
underground
G.O.A.T.
Tbf though every time he reached the SF since 2010 he lost to Djokovic x2, Nadal x2, Murray, all of which were close to peak form in their respective years. Had he been drawn in the other half he would have had a better chance (certainly the case in 2011, 2014, 2016)
When did that happen? I saw Fed choke for 2 sets, then he outplayed Djokovic once he found his top level. then choke the 4th set. How on earth is a loss in 4 sets a humiliation? Straight sets like 07 USO is humiliation if that's the case.
Fed owns Murray at grand slams. He doesn't usually lose to weaponless pushers.
Fed should teach SF minimum. If he's lucky enough to avoid Murrovic then have Murray take out Djokovic for him, he can win number 5 and 18.
Winners or Errors
Legend
How's the knee? How's his body? He's had 6 months of rehab. Maybe he has turned back the clock physically. If that's true, everyone better look out. Hoping for one last year of brilliance. I miss watching Federer.
No predictions. Just happy he is coming back.
No predictions. Just happy he is coming back.
Urkezi
Semi-Pro
Honestly, guy, you should really take it down a notch because this is getting beyond stupid now. Not just your predictions and "analysis", but how on Earth can Murray take out Djokovic and still have Fed to play? You single-handedly bring this forum down a level or two...
T
Tiki-Taka
Guest
If it's going to be like their meeting in 2012, sign me up for that.
Something like 2013 or 2015 can be tolerated.
Please no to the repeat of 2011 or 2016.
Similar threads
