Irma

Gary Duane

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
How many of you are in its path? It appears to be coming right at us at the moment. We almost lost our home with Wilma. The eye went right over us and blew out windows. Homes destroyed about two blocks away.

This is very scary...
 
Vanhool

Vanhool

Hall of Fame
Gary Duane said:
How many of you are in its path? It appears to be coming right at us at the moment. We almost lost our home with Wilma. The eye went right over us and blew out windows. Homes destroyed about two blocks away.

This is very scary...
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Oh that's scary! I hope you stay safe <3
 
Gary Duane

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
Vanhool said:
Oh that's scary! I hope you stay safe <3
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Very scary, and I don't normally worry about these things until they get close. But the exact center of the projected path goes right over us, so unless it veers north or south, we're going to get slammed.

But if it misses us, this is going to do huge damage to someone unless by some miracle it goes way north.
 
Vanhool

Vanhool

Hall of Fame
Gary Duane said:
Very scary, and I don't normally worry about these things until they get close. But the exact center of the projected path goes right over us, so unless it veers north or south, we're going to get slammed.

But if it misses us, this is going to do huge damage to someone unless by some miracle it goes way north.
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That is nervewracking. Can you shelter in place where you live?
 
Gary Duane

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
Vanhool said:
That is nervewracking. Can you shelter in place where you live?
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We usually don't try unless it is predicted to be catastrophic. We are not on the beach. Usually people evacuate who live on the beach or on canals.

As you know, a storm that misses by 20 miles is almost as good as one that does not come hear you.

But this storm is going to do huge damage to someone, most likely, because there is a high pressure system that is going to stop it from veering north.

Best news so far is that it is a fast moving storm.

What made Harvey devastating is that it stalled and did not move for days.
 
Vanhool

Vanhool

Hall of Fame
Well, I hope it dies down a little before it makes landfall. Will be crossing fingers for you.
 
Gary Duane

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
It's still unpredictable. Models are showing it going right over us, with possibilities of either bending north sooner (best for everyone but unlikely) or continuing on a more western track longer, meaning we may not get the brunt of it.

It if goes as projected, no USO SFs or Fs for us, due to no electricity.
 
stringertom

stringertom

Bionic Poster
Daniel-San said:
Will stringertom be okay?
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Way too early to know where it's headed or its intensity. Check back Thursday or so.

I'm 200 miles north by northwest (love that film BTW) of @Gary Duane and 60 miles inland so that often softens impact but we'll have bad enough weather to foul everything up unless it stays south and continues in a western path into the Gulf of Mexico (like Andrew in 1992). It was actually beautiful weather in Orlando that time...just a bit windy.
 
Gary Duane

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
stringertom said:
Way too early to know where it's headed or its intensity. Check back Thursday or so.

I'm 200 miles north by northwest (love that film BTW) of @Gary Duane and 60 miles inland so that often softens impact but we'll have bad enough weather to foul everything up unless it stays south and continues in a western path into the Gulf of Mexico (like Andrew in 1992). It was actually beautiful weather in Orlando that time...just a bit windy.
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They always hype these things to the max. Part of it is warning people, but a large part is that news likes disasters because it sells news.

The projected path only suggests that the central position is most likely, but things can change hugely in only a few days. Predicting storm paths is far from an exact science. You really don't know until these things get close.
 
mikeler

mikeler

Moderator
stringertom said:
Way too early to know where it's headed or its intensity. Check back Thursday or so.

I'm 200 miles north by northwest (love that film BTW) of @Gary Duane and 60 miles inland so that often softens impact but we'll have bad enough weather to foul everything up unless it stays south and continues in a western path into the Gulf of Mexico (like Andrew in 1992). It was actually beautiful weather in Orlando that time...just a bit windy.
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It's much better for us coming due north since it has more time to weaken over land. The worst storms for Tom and I are fast moving and come across east to west or west to east quickly over the peninsula.
 
stringertom

stringertom

Bionic Poster
mikeler said:
It's much better for us coming due north since it has more time to weaken over land. The worst storms for Tom and I are fast moving and come across east to west or west to east quickly over the peninsula.
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Not so with Charlie though. That hit Punta Gorda and didn't lose its organization the whole 150 miles or more in the path to us.
 
mikeler

mikeler

Moderator
stringertom said:
Not so with Charlie though. That hit Punta Gorda and didn't lose its organization the whole 150 miles or more in the path to us.
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Irma could take a similar path although hopefully a little slower...but not too slow like Harvey

I'm a weather nerd, the system behind Irma could do the Jeanne "loop de loop" and hit us with another major hurricane after Irma. Shades of 2004...
 
stringertom

stringertom

Bionic Poster
mikeler said:
Irma could take a similar path although hopefully a little slower...but not too slow like Harvey

I'm a weather nerd, the system behind Irma could do the Jeanne "loop de loop" and hit us with another major hurricane after Irma. Shades of 2004...
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Hopefully the high system that is resisting th right hand turn pushes further southward and keeps it east-west. Then the mountains in Cuba can break it up a bit and we all stay on the northeast side of it as it regains any strength in the Gulf's warmer and shallower basin.

We have our first big convention of the season scheduled to start Thursday. It may have to be scrubbed if the path doesn't shift very soon. That will kill my business plans. The regular pleasure tourism, what little we've had this summer, is done so that's a UUUGGGEEE hit on us if this Irma comes and lays a deuce on us.
 
T

TahoeTennis

Legend
I'd get out of town asap, not worth the risk. Before Harvey they were literally telling people if they stay to write their Social Security's on their arms.
 
C

Chadillac

Guest
Best of luck Gary. In orlando we should be safe, have the good pressure coming in from the west to push it east. Further south could be trouble if one of the #1 projects is true (400 radius), hoping for #2 where it bounces north off the islands.

stringertom said:
Not so with Charlie though. That hit Punta Gorda and didn't lose its organization the whole 150 miles or more in the path to us.
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Charlie was moving very fast, no time for the land to slow it down like most hurricanes. It was like a big tornado. I live in conway and charlie took down every pole on a half mile road, just like a tornado does (lake margaret).

TahoeTennis said:
I'd get out of town asap, not worth the risk. Before Harvey they were literally telling people if they stay to write their Social Security's on their arms.
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Flooding is why this hurricane is bad for houston. We dont have that problem in florida, mainly its about keeping power and hoping a tree doesnt fall on your house.
 
dr325i

dr325i

G.O.A.T.
Gary Duane said:
It's still unpredictable. Models are showing it going right over us, with possibilities of either bending north sooner (best for everyone but unlikely) or continuing on a more western track longer, meaning we may not get the brunt of it.

It if goes as projected, no USO SFs or Fs for us, due to no electricity.
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Lived in FL for 15 years and experienced a few of those.
In Melbourne, we lived right off A1A, in Boca, not far from the beach...
Lock it up and go west. Hope it is still there when you come back
 
justRick

justRick

Rookie
I think most Floridians know the score by now. Bottled water, check. Generator and gas, check. Camp stove and propane, check. Cliff bars, check. Firearm and ammo, check. G2G. They'll be fine.
 
Seth

Seth

Legend
I'm in Sarasota. Planning on leaving tomorrow evening and going to NC for a few days.

Latest update I saw shows Irma moving toward west coast of FL. No way we're sticking around for that.
 
stringertom

stringertom

Bionic Poster
Seth said:
I'm in Sarasota. Planning on leaving tomorrow evening and going to NC for a few days.

Latest update I saw shows Irma moving toward west coast of FL. No way we're sticking around for that.
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You might want to watch the track...it has turned slightly eastward and could continue that trend, meaning you're going from the frying pan to the fire.

I cannot imagine how bad the traffic will be headed northwards and the last place you want to be if the storm catches up with you is on a road in a vehicle.
 
McLovin

McLovin

Legend
TahoeTennis said:
Seriously get out of Florida for a while. Now.
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Seth said:
I'm in Sarasota. Planning on leaving tomorrow evening and going to NC for a few days.

Latest update I saw shows Irma moving toward west coast of FL. No way we're sticking around for that.
Click to expand...
I may have to do the opposite & head TO Florida. My parents are in Naples, and when I spoke w/ them yesterday, had no plans on leaving. Hoping it turns North soon, or I may have to fly down Friday & drag them out of there...
 
stringertom

stringertom

Bionic Poster
TahoeTennis said:
Yes it's called the us highway system
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Maybe @Gary Duane can enlighten you on how jammed the highways are on even normal traffic days in South Florida.

Also, unless it's 5 million Teslas all charged up, whatcha gonna do after the first tank of gas runs out and you're a sitting duck on the side of the road???

Please think things through before you poast your ignorance again, OK???
 
T

TahoeTennis

Legend
stringertom said:
Maybe @Gary Duane can enlighten you on how jammed the highways are on even normal traffic days in South Florida.

Also, unless it's 5 million Teslas all charged up, whatcha gonna do after the first tank of gas runs out and you're a sitting duck on the side of the road???

Please think things through before you poast your ignorance again, OK???
Click to expand...

Considering there's been about a week of warning, there has been plenty of time to get out. *post
 
stringertom

stringertom

Bionic Poster
TahoeTennis said:
Considering there's been about a week of warning, there has been plenty of time to get out. *post
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Smh...we all just sit idly waiting for the next storm that may or may not be The Big One. So, when an eye forms in Cape Verde the next time we will all start packing the car to follow your directions. Will you be sending a note to our bosses asking for permission to skip out each time that happens?

You are usually fairly intelligent in your thoughts. Please stop embarrassing yourself, OK?

Pros with a lot of experience in these matters are administrating as best they can and really dangerous areas are in evacuation mode. That's all the infrastructure can handle, not everyone panicking and getting in their cars for a drive to a highway converted to a four/six/eight lane parking lot.
 
Gary Duane

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
stringertom said:
Maybe @Gary Duane can enlighten you on how jammed the highways are on even normal traffic days in South Florida.

Also, unless it's 5 million Teslas all charged up, whatcha gonna do after the first tank of gas runs out and you're a sitting duck on the side of the road???

Please think things through before you poast your ignorance again, OK???
Click to expand...
I work at a place I can walk to in 10 minutes, about a mile away. It can take me 20 minutes to drive there.

We live in a megapolis.

I'm not going to trade a word with @TahoeTennis . We are all stressed enough down here. We haven't faced anything this bad since Andrew, but Wilma was actually worse for us, personally, because the eye went over our house.
 
A

Atherton2003

Hall of Fame
I think they should have an evacuation plan in FL....so that everyone isn't leaving the same day and time....kinda stagger it.....but anyway you look at it, evacuating millions of people isn't easy. Where do they all go???? There is probably no gas left in FL...so that leaves them in FL......maybe they should open some stadiums or huge buildings for people to seek shelter?
 
stringertom

stringertom

Bionic Poster
Atherton2003 said:
I think they should have an evacuation plan in FL....so that everyone isn't leaving the same day and time....kinda stagger it.....but anyway you look at it, evacuating millions of people isn't easy. Where do they all go???? There is probably no gas left in FL...so that leaves them in FL......maybe they should open some stadiums or huge buildings for people to seek shelter?
Click to expand...

I believe there is some organization of the traffic flow from mandatory evacuation areas...probably by street or license plate numbers (odds & evens).

Stadiums would leave evacuees exposed but many public buildings are designated shelters for those displaced.

This is not even close to our first rodeo with these storms. We'll get through it as best as possible if everyone stays panic-free and follow directions from the team of experts that guide us.
 
Gary Duane

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
Atherton2003 said:
I think they should have an evacuation plan in FL....so that everyone isn't leaving the same day and time....kinda stagger it.....but anyway you look at it, evacuating millions of people isn't easy. Where do they all go???? There is probably no gas left in FL...so that leaves them in FL......maybe they should open some stadiums or huge buildings for people to seek shelter?
Click to expand...
Believe me, in order to dodge this bullet you had to make plans about a week early to "get out of Dodge". But not all people have that option, for obvious reasons. Many of us are not in evacuation areas, so making a decision to leave is not an easy one. We have families, jobs, responsibilities in the area.
 
Gary Duane

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
I got sick of just listening to the news, so about two or three days ago I started to track the storm myself.

Google Earth at all times shows an incredibly detailed view of hurricanes. You can always clearly see the eye, and the eye is a good marker of the center of the storm, both geographically and re the winds - the part of the storm that does the worst damage. Generally the winds to the east of the eye, perhaps more like to the northeast, are the worst.

All the pictures I see still show Miami being the center of the projected cone, with a bend to the north around the time Irma gets to Miami.

At the moment it looks as though the path we are seeing has not been updated properly. It shows the storm moving lower than where it is going next -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Providenciales

Each degree of latitude is around 70 miles (69 miles), so the storm will get there in a few more hours. At that time the path SHOULD be updated.
 
Gary Duane

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
4:45 PM Thursday:

Irma3.png
 
Gary Duane

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
Since posting last the hurricane is bending more towards the West, so I'm no longer confident that the models are not pretty much 100% right.
 
Seth

Seth

Legend
I started tracking it on spaghettimodels.com and compared to my local news. Given the size of the storm and the age of my two children, I felt more and more vulnerable. Living in a floodplain, the last thing I wanted to do was find myself on a cot in some evacuee shelter.

We left last night at midnight and got to NC around 11:20am. Super easy and clear driving the whole way, but gas was out at a few spots around Jax. Every rest stop was FULL of people sleeping in cars. Never seen anything like it.

Now that the storm is tracking more to the west, I feel much better about my decision to leave Sarasota. NHC/NOAA showing it to still be at least CAT3 when passing my neck of the woods.
 
Gary Duane

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
It appears the models are right, more or less. The storm is bending somewhat towards Cuba. Current prediction is that the path has moved a bit to the west, now predicted to come up Florida closer to the center. Exact path still very uncertain, which should be much clearer in 24 hours.

Bottom line: NO ONE knows for sure where it is going, not exactly...
 
skip1969

skip1969

G.O.A.T.
This is the first time I've posted since . . . well, just before the power went out, which was Wednesday at 4pm.

Here in Puerto Rico, Irma managed to stay just north of us and (I think) we avoided major damage. I say "I think" because with no electricity, I haven't really been able to catch a lot of news. I drove around the neighborhood last night (just to sit in the car with the air conditioning on, cos it's so damn hot) and other than downed tree limbs, I didn't see much chaos. No power means no road or street lights, so the roads were dark and intersections were a challenge to cross. Only a couple of stores lit and open. Generally speaking, a ghost town in my neck of the woods.

Running water is running at about 15% of normal flow, just more than a trickle really. But we have buckets everywhere already filled, as well as the jet tub in the master bedroom. Our neighbors next door have been angels. They have a generator and have run an extension cord to our place. Our fridge is running and we can keep our phones charged to communicate with the rest of the world. Little camping stove is giving us the ability to have hot meals. We'll see how long the power stays off.

Grateful for the near miss. For me, looking out my window on Wednesday night was no worse than a experiencing a regular thunder storm. But worried for all my friends in Florida who have yet to get their visit from Irma.
 
movdqa

movdqa

Talk Tennis Guru
skip1969 said:
This is the first time I've posted since . . . well, just before the power went out, which was Wednesday at 4pm.

Here in Puerto Rico, Irma managed to stay just north of us and (I think) we avoided major damage. I say "I think" because with no electricity, I haven't really been able to catch a lot of news. I drove around the neighborhood last night (just to sit in the car with the air conditioning on, cos it's so damn hot) and other than downed tree limbs, I didn't see much chaos. No power means no road or street lights, so the roads were dark and intersections were a challenge to cross. Only a couple of stores lit and open. Generally speaking, a ghost town in my neck of the woods.

Running water is running at about 15% of normal flow, just more than a trickle really. But we have buckets everywhere already filled, as well as the jet tub in the master bedroom. Our neighbors next door have been angels. They have a generator and have run an extension cord to our place. Our fridge is running and we can keep our phones charged to communicate with the rest of the world. Little camping stove is giving us the ability to have hot meals. We'll see how long the power stays off.

Grateful for the near miss. For me, looking out my window on Wednesday night was no worse than a experiencing a regular thunder storm. But worried for all my friends in Florida who have yet to get their visit from Irma.
Click to expand...

You dodged a bullet if you have internet access. I watched Houston and it was and is still a mess there and I hope that Florida catches a break.
 
David Le

David Le

Hall of Fame
I heard/saw that it will land in Georgia within by Monday. Not sure if it's the right path but if it is, hopefully I have time to get some water and food, and of course gas.
 
jaggy

jaggy

Talk Tennis Guru
Seth said:
I started tracking it on spaghettimodels.com and compared to my local news. Given the size of the storm and the age of my two children, I felt more and more vulnerable. Living in a floodplain, the last thing I wanted to do was find myself on a cot in some evacuee shelter.

We left last night at midnight and got to NC around 11:20am. Super easy and clear driving the whole way, but gas was out at a few spots around Jax. Every rest stop was FULL of people sleeping in cars. Never seen anything like it.

Now that the storm is tracking more to the west, I feel much better about my decision to leave Sarasota. NHC/NOAA showing it to still be at least CAT3 when passing my neck of the woods.
Click to expand...
Where in Carolina are you?
 
skip1969

skip1969

G.O.A.T.
movdqa said:
You dodged a bullet if you have internet access. I watched Houston and it was and is still a mess there and I hope that Florida catches a break.
Click to expand...
This is the best my phone has worked since Wednesday, which is why I decided to come and post. Making calls has been spotty. Texting has been my go-to.
 
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