can nadal end year 2009 no 1

satishnadal · Oct 27, 2009

nadal as of today is 1210 points less than federer . is there any chance if he wins both paris masters and atp tour finals at london he can reign no 1 this year . if there is a chance like that and if he could do that than that will great acheivemnt without particiapting in wimbeldon.

TheMagicianOfPrecision · Oct 27, 2009

satishnadal said:
nadal as of today is 1210 points less than federer . is there any chance if he wins both paris masters and atp tour finals at london he can reign no 1 this year . if there is a chance like that and if he could do that than that will great acheivemnt without particiapting in wimbeldon.

He would have to win a lot whereas fed doesnt win many matches...

Bud · Oct 27, 2009

satishnadal said:
nadal as of today is 1210 points less than federer . is there any chance if he wins both paris masters and atp tour finals at london he can reign no 1 this year . if there is a chance like that and if he could do that than that will great acheivemnt without particiapting in wimbeldon.

I believe it's possible but not likely

Danstevens · Oct 27, 2009

Bud said:
I believe it's possible but not likely

I'd agree with that statement. Mathematically, I think it's possible but as for it actually happening, that isn't likely at all. Of course, there is always the possibility of Federer getting injured or just not bothering but I can't really see either of those happening.

IvanAndreevich · Oct 27, 2009

He can, but I think it would be wiser for him to make sure he finishes the season injury-free.

TMF · Oct 27, 2009

satishnadal said:
nadal as of today is 1210 points less than federer . is there any chance if he wins both paris masters and atp tour finals at london he can reign no 1 this year . if there is a chance like that and if he could do that than that will great acheivemnt without particiapting in wimbeldon.

Mathematically, yes he can end the year #1. However, many people would still say Roger had a better year since he won 2 GS including reaching all 4 GS finals. It doesn’t make him a strong #1 since he skipped SW19, but rather weak.

In 1978, Connors ended the year #1, but in many people eyes, Borg was the better player b/c he had a stellar year by winning 2 GS plus 1 final.

lambielspins · Oct 27, 2009

satishnadal said:
nadal as of today is 1210 points less than federer . is there any chance if he wins both paris masters and atp tour finals at london he can reign no 1 this year . if there is a chance like that and if he could do that than that will great acheivemnt without particiapting in wimbeldon.

Nadal has been crushed by nearly every top player he has played since his return. Even with a complete joke/dream draw and the slow surface in Shanghai he still couldnt win. He wont be winning Paris or the year end Masters, he will be lucky to even make the semis of either. So no Nadal has no chance to end the year #1.

8pNADAL · Oct 27, 2009

^ nadal very rarely doesnt make the semis, so how would that be 'lucky' if he made them?

Blinkism · Oct 27, 2009

This is not likely. If he won Beijing and, especially, if he won Shanghai- it would be likely.

Either way, like TMF pointed out- Federer still had the better year ... slam results rule everything

What would be nice is if he could cushion the massive amount of points he'd have to defend in the first half of the 2010 season.

If he reached #1 by year's end, one would still have to think that it wouldn't be likely he retained that spot until the FO, anyways.

All that matters is that he plays well again really. It would be better if he found his form and stayed at #2 rather than risking injury or somehow lucking his way into #1 but being unprepared for next year.

8pNADAL · Oct 27, 2009

how would he risk injury by playing the final 2 events? he will play them either way regardless of whether hes chasing the ranking

Blinkism · Oct 27, 2009

8pNADAL said:
how would he risk injury by playing the final 2 events? he will play them either way regardless of whether hes chasing the ranking

I meant risking injury by playing really tough matches.

I'm not saying he should tank the tougher matches, but he should lay off the heroics (vis-a-vis the Verdasco and Federer matches in Australia at the beginning of this year).

He should definitely play the next 2 tourneys. He's only defending QF's at Paris between the next 2 tourneys, as he didn't play YEC last year.

8pNADAL · Oct 27, 2009

Blinkism said:
I meant risking injury by playing really tough matches.

I'm not saying he should tank the tougher matches, but he should lay off the heroics (vis-a-vis the Verdasco and Federer matches in Australia at the beginning of this year).

He should definitely play the next 2 tourneys. He's only defending QF's at Paris between the next 2 tourneys, as he didn't play YEC last year.

no chance of that happening, i dont think nadal can stop fighting hes obsessed with winning beyond perspective (like in the djokovic match in madrid - 3-6 7-6 (7-5) 7-6 (11-9), his tendinitis was killing him and roland garros was coming soon but he still decided not to let djokovic win even tho he knew he would have nothing left in the tank for federer)

Blinkism · Oct 27, 2009

^^

I know

It's his blessing and his curse

flying24 · Oct 27, 2009

Blinkism said:
This is not likely. If he won Beijing and, especially, if he won Shanghai- it would be likely.

This is not even really true. Even if Nadal had won those events he would trail Federer in race points for just the year, and Federer clearly is favored to do better in Paris and London on those faster courts. The fact Federer willingly chose to skip those events for no reason at all is telling. He knows Nadal cant catch him.

wyutani · Oct 27, 2009

if nadal played wimbledon this year, he will.

Dutch-Guy · Oct 28, 2009

When was the last time Rafa won anything between USO and TMC? (except Madrid 2005 where he beat Ljubicic).

ubermeyer · Oct 28, 2009

No...

Ten characters.

valiant · Oct 29, 2009

It can happen only if Fed slips and Nadal plays well at all the tournaments left which is unlikely though. Fed is well rested and I expect him to play well. So it would be unlikely.

vulcan · Oct 29, 2009

OK, well in the interest of attempting to answer this question definitively I decide to write a program to calculate all of the possible scenarios.
The result was 53,295 possible scenarios with Nadal having a 31.4% chance of regaining the Number 1 ranking. This analysis assumes an equal probability distribution of all match wins/losses (ie there is no weighting). I also wrote a handy-dandy Year End Number 1 scenario generator which allow you to both generate random scenarios and input a desired scenario to see the results, the program and Excel file with the scenarios is free to download at:
http://rapidshare.com/files/299293579/YEC_Final.zip

veroniquem · Oct 29, 2009

8pNADAL said:
^ nadal very rarely doesnt make the semis, so how would that be 'lucky' if he made them?

Don't mind him. He's jealous. + he doesn't like the fact that Nadal has made the final in Paris-Bercy while Fed has never even made the semis there :twisted:
Wow vulcan, impressive!

veroniquem · Oct 29, 2009

8pNADAL said:
no chance of that happening, i dont think nadal can stop fighting hes obsessed with winning beyond perspective (like in the djokovic match in madrid - 3-6 7-6 (7-5) 7-6 (11-9), his tendinitis was killing him and roland garros was coming soon but he still decided not to let djokovic win even tho he knew he would have nothing left in the tank for federer)

True, that was a fatal mistake but I don't think he could help it. I don't remember which player said about Rafa: "he wants to win everything, even the toss!"

Serendipitous · Oct 29, 2009

Yes

10 charz

Matt H. · Oct 29, 2009

if he won paris and london, that would give him a slam, 4 out of the 9 masters shields, and the tour championships.

i know slams are bigger, but slams account for 8 weeks of play out of like 50. That would be a stellar year.

Agassifan · Oct 29, 2009

Matt H. said:
if he won paris and london, that would give him a slam, 4 out of the 9 masters shields, and the tour championships.

If fed won paris and london, he would have 3 masters shields, 2 slams and the YEC. it would be a decent year by his standards.

roysid · Oct 29, 2009

Let's talk about facts:
This year Nadal has accumulated 8845 points. If he wins both Paris and London(including all round robin), he will be at
8845 + 1000 + 1500
= 11345 points

Federer has got 9855 points this year. He is playing Basel, Paris and London. In 3 tournaments, he has to achieve less than 1490 points for Nadal to be year end #1.

Basically, Nadal is playing one tourney less but has to earn more than 1000 points than Federer.

Tough job. Not only Nadal has to do extremely well, but Federer has to be below par.

Baikalic · Oct 29, 2009

it ain't happening. I'd say the chances are less than 5%.

NGM · Oct 30, 2009

Agassifan said:
If fed won paris and london, he would have 3 masters shields, 2 slams and the YEC. it would be a decent year by his standards.

I would call 2009 a miserable year for Federer if he didnt win FO, even if he wins everything from now to the end of the year.

P_Agony · Oct 30, 2009

Don't forget Fed himself doesn't have a lot to defend except for Basel. He reached the same round as Nadal did in Paris last year and he didn't exactly win a lot of matches at the TMC. So even if Nadal wins both titles, Federer may as well earn more ranking points.

P_Agony · Oct 30, 2009

Blinkism said:
^^

I know

It's his blessing and his curse

Didn't you say you believed Federer won Madrid because he outplayed Nadal?

chalkflewup · Oct 30, 2009

A miserable year for Fed if he didn't win the FO???? What do you mean "IF." It's so weak to toss around "IF's" and "ANDs" to justify a position. "IF" the Queen had stones she'd be King. But she doesn't you see.

2009 is without question, the most memorable year of Federer's career.

In 2008, Fed wins 1 slam, reaches 2 of the 4 slam finals and the entire tennis world sticks a fork in him - says he's done. So what does he do in 2009? He reaches ALL 4 slam finals and wins 2 of them. He beats Pete's record. And he is well positioned to finish the year #1. What's disappointing about that?

He also got married and joined the fatherhood ranks. Without question, the most memorable year of his career.

P_Agony · Oct 30, 2009

chalkflewup said:
A miserable year for Fed if he didn't win the FO???? What do you mean "IF." It's so weak to toss around "IF's" and "ANDs" to justify a position. "IF" the Queen had stones she'd be King. But she doesn't you see.

2009 is without question, the most memorable year of Federer's career.

In 2008, Fed wins 1 slam, reaches 3 of the 4 slam finals and the entire tennis world sticks a fork in him - says he's done. So what does he do in 2009? He reaches ALL 4 slam finals and wins 2 of them. He beats Pete's record. And he is well positioned to finish the year #1. What's disappointing about that?

He also got married and joined the fatherhood ranks. Without question, the most memorable year of his career.

Fixed it for you.

dropshot winner · Oct 30, 2009

Even Nadal doesn't believe that he can overtake Federer this year: "I'm close to #1 as far as the points are concerned, but the end of the year with the upcomming tournaments is difficult."

In the same interview he said "I'm not as talented as Federer" and mentioned again how difficult the time after Roland Garros was for him.

DarthMaul · Oct 30, 2009

P_Agony said:
Fixed it for you.

You will soon run out of signature space

statto · Oct 30, 2009

It's not impossible, but it's highly improbable.

vulcan · Oct 30, 2009

P_Agony said:
Don't forget Fed himself doesn't have a lot to defend except for Basel. He reached the same round as Nadal did in Paris last year and he didn't exactly win a lot of matches at the TMC. So even if Nadal wins both titles, Federer may as well earn more ranking points.

This comment makes little or no sense. Federer is defending far more compared to Nadal. He is defending 750 points total while Nadal is defending only 250 total. As my analysis shows Nadal has approx. a 1/3 chance of regaining the #1 title assuming equal win/loss probability for all matches.
Furthermore if Nadal wins both Paris and YEC, and even if he only wins two Round Robin matches at YEC, and he wins two Davis cup matches Federer will LOSE the number #1 ranking irrespective of what he does at Basel and the other two tournaments.

vulcan · Oct 30, 2009

Correction to above...Federer is defending 950 not 750

vulcan · Oct 30, 2009

dropshot winner said:
Even Nadal doesn't believe that he can overtake Federer this year: "I'm close to #1 as far as the points are concerned, but the end of the year with the upcomming tournaments is difficult."

In the same interview he said "I'm not as talented as Federer" and mentioned again how difficult the time after Roland Garros was for him.

I suggest you not confuse humility with a lack of confidence...just because Nadal is humble DOES NOT mean that he doesn't think that he can do it.

President · Oct 30, 2009

It will be very difficult for him to end 2009 #1, but I think he should regain the ranking after Wimbledon, because he has almost no points to defend at RG and Wimbledon.

vulcan · Oct 30, 2009

President said:
It will be very difficult for him to end 2009 #1, but I think he should regain the ranking after Wimbledon, because he has almost no points to defend at RG and Wimbledon.

This depends on what Federer does. There have been some rumours circulating that he might not play all of the events he is scheduled to play for the rest of the year. Assuming the tournament he is most likely to skip is Paris and neither of the other two...Nadal's chances would go up to 40% for regaining the number 1 spot.

McBrat · Oct 30, 2009

^^ vulcan, I think you've made a mistake somewhere in your calculations; Federer is fairly ahead of him.:? And you seem to be oversimplifying things. Form, fitness and matchups are (as always) more crucial than winning percentage when Nadal is playing on HCs.

vulcan · Oct 30, 2009

McBrat said:
^^ vulcan, I think you've made a mistake somewhere in your calculations; Federer is fairly ahead of him.:? And you seem to be oversimplifying things. Form, fitness and matchups are (as always) more crucial than winning percentage when Nadal is playing on HCs.

If you see a specific error please feel free to point it out. Form and fitness and not really quantifiable. As far as matchups go they are 2-2 on hardcourts so I think an even probability is reasonable though I'm sure many would argue that Federer is the better hardcourt player overall.

TMF · Oct 30, 2009

The upcoming tourneys should favor roger b/c of the surface wise. Some of the elite 8 players - DP, Murray, or Davy are more capable of beating rafa than fed at Round Robin. Nadal simply have more matchup problems than Fed in Paris and London.

McBrat · Oct 30, 2009

vulcan said:
This comment makes little or no sense. Federer is defending far more compared to Nadal. He is defending 750 points total while Nadal is defending only 250 total. As my analysis shows Nadal has approx. a 1/3 chance of regaining the #1 title assuming equal win/loss probability for all matches.
Furthermore if Nadal wins both Paris and YEC, and even if he only wins two Round Robin matches at YEC, and he wins two Davis cup matches Federer will LOSE the number #1 ranking irrespective of what he does at Basel and the other two tournaments.

vulcan said:
Correction to above...Federer is defending 950 not 750

Federer: 10305 + 500 (Basel) + 350 (Paris) + 800 (YEC) + 0 (DC) = 11955
Nadal: 9095 + 0 (Basel) + 750 (Paris) + 1300 (YEC) + 140 (DC) = 11285

Breakdown for Federer:
Basel: +500
Paris: +350 = 600 (F) - 250
YEC : +800 = 3 x 200 (RR wins) + 400 (F) - 200 (points dropped from last year)

Breakdown for Nadal:
Paris: +750 = 1000 (W) - 250
YEC : +1300 = 2 x 200 (RR wins) + 400 (F) + 500 (W)
DC : +140 = 2 x 70 (SF wins)

I could be wrong...

vulcan · Oct 30, 2009

McBrat said:
Federer: 10305 + 500 (Basel) + 350 (Paris) + 800 (YEC) + 0 (DC) = 11955
Nadal: 9095 + 0 (Basel) + 750 (Paris) + 1300 (YEC) + 140 (DC) = 11285

Breakdown for Federer:
Basel: +500
Paris: +350 = 600 (F) - 250
YEC : +800 = 3 x 200 (RR wins) + 400 (F) - 200 (points dropped from last year)

Breakdown for Nadal:
Paris: +750 = 1000 (W) - 250
YEC : +1300 = 2 x 200 (RR wins) + 400 (F) + 500 (W)
DC : +140 = 2 x 70 (SF wins)

I could be wrong...

Where do you get the starting figures of 10305 and 9095? - the ATP website has the current entry points as 9855 and 8845. Also Federer is defending 500 points at Basel so how can he gain 500 points there?

Steve132 · Oct 30, 2009

vulcan said:
This comment makes little or no sense. Federer is defending far more compared to Nadal. He is defending 750 points total while Nadal is defending only 250 total. As my analysis shows Nadal has approx. a 1/3 chance of regaining the #1 title assuming equal win/loss probability for all matches.
Furthermore if Nadal wins both Paris and YEC, and even if he only wins two Round Robin matches at YEC, and he wins two Davis cup matches Federer will LOSE the number #1 ranking irrespective of what he does at Basel and the other two tournaments.

vulcan said:
Correction to above...Federer is defending 950 not 750

Federer is defending 450 points from last year, not 750 or 950. His points from Basel 2008 have already been dropped from his totals.

According to the ATP web site:

Federer total ranking points: 10305
Year to date ranking points: 9855
Difference: 450, 250 from Paris and 200 from the Masters Cup.

Nadal total ranking points: 9095
Year to date ranking points: 8845
Difference: 250, from Paris.

The gap is therefore significantly larger than you suggest.

Moreover, if one is to assess Nadal's chances of finishing the year at no. 1 you really can't make an assumption of "equal win/loss probability for all matches." Nadal has not historically done well in the fall hard court season, partly because he is often injured and partly because he rarely dominates on fast hard courts. Since 2005 he has not won a title in the last four months of the year. Given Nadal's performances in this year's fall hard court season (losses to Cilic and Davydenko, and no victories against top 10 opponents since May) it is extremely optimistic to expect him to win either Paris or the YEC, much less both. By contrast, Federer has won Basel the last three years and the year end championship four times in the past six years.

Steve132 · Oct 30, 2009

President said:
It will be very difficult for him to end 2009 #1, but I think he should regain the ranking after Wimbledon, because he has almost no points to defend at RG and Wimbledon.

This is true only if you assume that Nadal will maintain all or most of the points that he won in the first five months of this year. He won the Australian Open and Indian Wells, but given the emergence of players like Cilic, del Potro and Soderling it is far from certain that he will retain those titles next year. Federer is also likely to perform better in the winter hard court season than he did this year.

vulcan · Oct 30, 2009

McBrat/Steve132 thanks for pointing out those corrections...I'll recrunch the numbers. As far as Nadal's performance in hardcourt events I don't think assessing his Fall performance over the past 4 years is a good barometer as his hard court play and results have improved dramatically in the last year.

vulcan · Oct 30, 2009

OK, rerunning the numbers it appears that Nadal's chances (again based on equal win/loss probability) are approx. 1/10. Needless to say a good result at Basel is important for Federer particularly if he decides not to play Paris as is being speculated.

srinrajesh · Oct 30, 2009

vulcan said:
This depends on what Federer does. There have been some rumours circulating that he might not play all of the events he is scheduled to play for the rest of the year. Assuming the tournament he is most likely to skip is Paris and neither of the other two...Nadal's chances would go up to 40% for regaining the number 1 spot.

If Nadal goes on to regain no.1 it may well be the most exciting end to the year.. however it is very difficult for him to do so. he should have played one more 500 tourney like valencia perhaps to chase the ranking and put pressure on federer...

Rjtennis · Oct 30, 2009

I don't think Nadal has a good chance at the #1 spot until FO next year. It will be tough for him to even reach the finals at YEC or Paris unless he steps it up. Also, the top players are all going to be back in the mix come the Paris Indoor.

can nadal end year 2009 no 1

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