Year end number 1

[timnz]

Now that Nadal has made the quarter finals at the Paris Indoor, is his hope to be year 1 number unchallengeable? Or does Novak Djokovic still have a chance to overtake him?

Nadal - can pick up 1000 points from a Paris win, 1500 points from an unbeaten WTF tournament win (1300 points if he loses a round robin match on the way to a tournament win). So adding that to his points so far this year 11670 makes 14170 points. That is the best total he can hope for. His minimum total is quarter final Points from Paris 180 points so 11850 will be his year end minimum.

Djokovic - currently on 9610 points. Can add 1000 from Paris + 1500 from WTF + 275 points if he wins both singles at the Davis Cup final and his team wins....so that comes to 12385 points - being the maximum he could earn by the end of the year. So his maximum 12385 is above Nadal's minimum 11850).

So Nadal's hasn't quite got there yet. Sounds like if he gets to the Paris final though he might have it all sewn up.

Thoughts?

It is going to crazy if Nadal is less than 275 points ahead of Djokovic at the end of the WTF....which means that Djokovic could potentially overtake him at the Davis Cup.

 

[chjtennis]

Nadal has it in his bag. I don't see Nadal failing to reach to the final in Paris. Also, I think Nadal will win at least 2 matches in WTF. Djokovic has to win both and it's far from guaranteed. Who knows? Nadal's good mate Federer may play the spoiler and knock out Djokovic in Paris to hand Nadal year end no.1. Not very likely but not impossible either.

 

[timnz]

I checked - he has to win Paris to sew it up

If Nadal loses the Paris quarters he get his points total to 11850, that is just 435 points shy of Djokovic's absolute 2013 maximum. So he would need to win 3 WTF matches to get the certain YE number 1.

If Nadal gets to the Paris final and doesn't win anymore matches in 2013 (ends up with 12270 points) and Djokovic wins all of his matches (including davis cup) for the rest of the year (Ends up with 12385 points) - then Nadal will end up with 125 points short of Djokovic's absolute maximum total. So, in that case, Nadal either has to win the Paris final or if he doesn't win, just 1 WTF match win is needed to be assured of year end number 1.

 

[Backspin1183]

It's on Rafa Nadal's racquet. Nothing much Novak can do about. I highly doubt Novak will defend the WTF this year.

It's highly unlikely for anyone to win China Open, Shanghai Masters, Paris Bercy and WTF, all four in a row. Not happening this time either.

 

[adil1972]

its a tight race, very interesting

 

[adil1972]

does anybody watches davis/fed cup. in my whole life i never bothered to watch it

 

[LazyNinja19]

This is from today's article on ATP website. It clears things up a lil bit about scenario for Nadal to clinch Year end no. 1 in Paris.

QUOTE : "The 27-year-old Spaniard won his 70th match of the season (70-5) on Thursday and he will finish No. 1 for the first time since 2010 if he has any result that is equal or better than Djokovic OR the Serb loses in the final and Nadal reaches the semi-finals OR Nadal wins the title."

 

[adil1972]

nadal never finished year end no. 1 for two consecutive years

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATP_Rankings#Singles

 

[Backspin1183]

nadal never finished year end no. 1 for two consecutive years

and here he is about to have his 3rd YE #1! 4th to come in 2014, hopefully.

 

[adil1972]

will you watch tennis after nadal/federer retirement

 

[Backspin1183]

will you watch tennis after nadal/federer retirement

I do like watching Nadal but I started playing tennis long before you knew who Nadal was or who Federer was. They weren't the reason I started watching/playing tennis. When they're gone, they'll be missed, even by their 'haters'! But life goes on, new kids will arrive with different playing styles, the world will move on.

 

[MichaelNadal]

nadal never finished year end no. 1 for two consecutive years

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATP_Rankings#Singles

But he's about to be the first man to get it back after 3 years. #Respect.

 

[andymaratkimi]

Nadal can win his first Paris 1000 title.

 

[timnz]

Where it stands now

So Nadal reaching paris semi's means he has a year end minimum total of 12030 points. The most Djokovic can get for 2013 is 12385 points. So Djokovic can do it, but he will have to play perfectly until the end of Davis Cup to do it. The 355 gap means that Nadal will have to win 2 round robin WTF matches to guarantee to finishing year end number 1.

 

[Backspin1183]

Simply put: it's Rafa Nadal's racquet.

 

[timnz]

Adjustment

I was wrong about the 275 points for Djokovic. Apparently it is 225 points. That means that if Djokovic is unbeaten at the WTF and wins two live rubbers in the final of Davis Cup (and his team wins) - he could still take YE number 1. It could only happen if Nadal wins no more than 1 match at the WTF though. Hence at the WTF Nadal needs to win 2 matches to guarantee the YE number 1.

Strangely Djokovic being YE number 1 is also dependent on the Serbian Second seed losing his first rubber in the Davis Cup finals or the doubles team losing. That has to happen so Djokovic's last match is a live rubber.

 

[tipsa...don'tlikehim!]

how many topics about YE 1 ? Six ? Eight ? I lost the count

 

[timnz]

Some scenerios

1/ Nadal wins no matches at the WTF (remains on 12030) points, then Djokovic can still afford to lose 1 round robin if he wins the WTF overall and wins two live rubbers (he needs his doubles team to lose so his second match is a live rubber) and his team wins at the Davis Cup finals. (Djokovic 10610 present points + 1300 (WTF win with 1 round robin loss) + 225 (Davis Cup maximum) = 12135 ie 105 points ahead of Nadal.

2/ if Nadal wins no matches at the WTF, Djokovic could sew up the YE number 1 with an unbeaten run at the WTF, he wouldn't then have to rely on Davis Cup points. Djokovic would be at 12110 points after the WTF (80 points ahead of Nadal).

3/ Nadal wins 1 match at the WTF but no more, then Djokovic needs to go unbeaten at the WTF and win all Davis Cup matches (again he needs his doubles team to lose so his second match is a live rubber) and his DC team wins the cup. In that case Nadal is at 12230 points. Djokovic will be at 10610 + 1500 + 225 = 12335 ie 105 points ahead.

4/ Nadal wins 2 WTF matches and no more, which put him on 12430 points. There is nothing Djokovic can do to get to number 1 this year, in that scenerio. Even if Djokovic goes unbeaten at the WTF and Davis Cup - his maximum possible total is 12335 ie 95 points short of Nadal.

 

[90's Clay]

I doubt Nadal makes the finals of the WTF. Nole ends the Year #1.

Its better just to get ready for January

 

[The_Order]

Doesn't Davis Cup get added or "roll over" to next year?

If so, he'll only have to win 1 RR match to seal the YE#1.

 

[timnz]

Nadal needs 2 WTF wins

Doesn't Davis Cup get added or "roll over" to next year?

If so, he'll only have to win 1 RR match to seal the YE#1.

Davis Cup in 2013 gets included in 2013 points totals. Nadal needs 2 wins not 1 at the WTF to be assured of the YE #1(see my posting 3 threads above).

 

[andymaratkimi]

Federer and Del Potro are not easy task for Djokovic.

 

[Clarky21]

Federer and Del Potro are not easy task for Djokovic.

Yes they are.

 

[Sentinel]

Congrats to Nadal for YE #1.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Yes they are.

Agreed lol.

 

[LazyNinja19]

Rafa will have to earn his way to No.1. 2 wins in RR needed.
Djoker seems to be on his way to win his remaining 7 matches.

 

[adil1972]

now stupid djoker will be tired from paris final

 

[MichaelNadal]

Nadal was talking about the race and ranking months and months ago. He's playing 3 guys he certainly has a shot to beat and you know he's going to go balls to the wall to win. I'm not too pressed.

 

[Death Master]

I like that spirit.

lets just hope he does not injure the damn knee.

 

[timnz]

Congrats to Nadal for YE #1.

Bit premature, don't you think? Nadal has to win 2 WTF matches to be assured of that.