Federer record vs. top 10

bluescreen · Nov 14, 2011

Hi guys, I'm performing a statistical analysis of Roger Federer's performance from this year compared to what I consider to be his best year, 2006. One piece of data I'm really interested in is his record vs. the top 10 for each of these years.

atpworldtour.com gives me the data for this year, but not for previous years. Does anybody know where I can find this statistic for previous years?

angler · Nov 14, 2011

Interesting, but very difficult. First of all, define top 10.
Let's take Tipsarevic this year. He was top 50, top 40, top 30, top 20 and now he is top 10. Do you mean top 10 at the week Federer played someone or top 10 at the end of the year ranking?

FedError · Nov 14, 2011

As a last resort you could probably go through his 2006 playing activity:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Roger-Federer.aspx?t=pa&y=2006&m=s&e=0#

and manually count up the wins/losses (it already gives the opponent's ranking at the time).

Or you could search online and try to find the statistic on Wikipedia or something.

FedError · Nov 14, 2011

It should probably mean top 10 at the time. Soderling is out of the top 10 now but shouldn't Federer's wins against him when he was ranked #5 be counted?

DjokovicForTheWin · Nov 14, 2011

Ask Mustard he's geeky enough to have it all No insult intended

Sid_Vicious · Nov 14, 2011

DjokovicForTheWin said:
Ask Mustard he's geeky enough to have it all No insult intended

In Mustard we trust.

Emet74 · Nov 14, 2011

bluescreen said:
Hi guys, I'm performing a statistical analysis of Roger Federer's performance from this year compared to what I consider to be his best year, 2006. One piece of data I'm really interested in is his record vs. the top 10 for each of these years.

atpworldtour.com gives me the data for this year, but not for previous years. Does anybody know where I can find this statistic for previous years?

It's pretty simple as he only lost to Nadal and Murray that year and Murray was not yet top 10.

So that would be a perfect record against the top 10 other than Nadal.

He was 2-4 against Nadal; losing consecutively in Dubai, MC, Rome and RG before prevailing at Wimby and YEC.

Emet74 · Nov 14, 2011

And BTW, altho' he lost more total matches than in 2006, in 2004 he had a perfect record against the top 10 and a perfect record in finals. (and semifinals)

Mustard · Nov 14, 2011

Federer's win-loss record against top 10 players is:

1998: 0-1 (0 winning percentage)
1999: 1-4 (20 winning percentage)
2000: 3-8 (27.27 winning percentage)
2001: 5-5 (50 winning percentage)
2002: 10-5 (66.67 winning percentage)
2003: 9-5 (64.29 winning percentage)
2004: 18-0 (100 winning percentage)
2005: 15-2 (88.24 winning percentage)
2006: 19-4 (82.61 winning percentage)
2007: 17-4 (80.95 winning percentage)
2008: 7-10 (41.18 winning percentage)
2009: 14-10 (58.33 winning percentage)
2010: 15-6 (71.43 winning percentage)
2011: 5-9 (35.71 winning percentage - after Paris Indoor)

Career: 138-73 (65.40 winning percentage)

DjokovicForTheWin · Nov 14, 2011

Mustard said:
Federer's win-loss record against top 10 players is:

1998: 0-1 (0 winning percentage)
1999: 1-4 (20 winning percentage)
2000: 3-8 (27.27 winning percentage)
2001: 5-5 (50 winning percentage)
2002: 10-5 (66.67 winning percentage)
2003: 9-5 (64.29 winning percentage)
2004: 18-0 (100 winning percentage)
2005: 15-2 (88.24 winning percentage)
2006: 19-4 (82.61 winning percentage)
2007: 17-4 (80.95 winning percentage)
2008: 7-10 (41.18 winning percentage)
2009: 14-10 (58.33 winning percentage)
2010: 15-6 (71.43 winning percentage)
2011: 5-9 (35.71 winning percentage - after Paris Indoor)

Career: 138-73 (65.40 winning percentage)

What'd I tell ya

These numbers corroborate Fed's prime was 04-07 and there was a massive decline in 08, I'm sure even the vilest of posters could comprehend this list. The data are the data.

bluescreen · Nov 14, 2011

Mustard said:
Federer's win-loss record against top 10 players is:

1998: 0-1 (0 winning percentage)
1999: 1-4 (20 winning percentage)
2000: 3-8 (27.27 winning percentage)
2001: 5-5 (50 winning percentage)
2002: 10-5 (66.67 winning percentage)
2003: 9-5 (64.29 winning percentage)
2004: 18-0 (100 winning percentage)
2005: 15-2 (88.24 winning percentage)
2006: 19-4 (82.61 winning percentage)
2007: 17-4 (80.95 winning percentage)
2008: 7-10 (41.18 winning percentage)
2009: 14-10 (58.33 winning percentage)
2010: 15-6 (71.43 winning percentage)
2011: 5-9 (35.71 winning percentage - after Paris Indoor)

Career: 138-73 (65.40 winning percentage)

Awesome. Thanks so much Mustard.

And thanks to everyone else too for your inquiries.

I'll be sure to post my analysis when I'm done. I'm separating Federer's performances into two samples spaces: 2005-2006 and 2010-2011 (I chose 2-year intervals to get larger sample sizes). I'll be comparing the two samples spaces based on overall attributes, and match-unique attributes.

For the 2-year sample spaces I'll compare his W/L records (combining 05-06 into one W/L record, for example), the numbers of slams won, and the average rank of the players he played at the slams.

I will then analyze each individual grand slam match he played to compare 1st serve %, 1st serve points won, 2nd serve points won, break points per game (total games played/break point opportunities), and break points converted.

I'm starting with just the slams for now and will then branch out into Masters and other tournaments (which is why I was inquiring about overall yearly records versus the top 10).

Cup8489 · Nov 14, 2011

Mustard said:
Federer's win-loss record against top 10 players is:

1998: 0-1 (0 winning percentage)
1999: 1-4 (20 winning percentage)
2000: 3-8 (27.27 winning percentage)
2001: 5-5 (50 winning percentage)
2002: 10-5 (66.67 winning percentage)
2003: 9-5 (64.29 winning percentage)
2004: 18-0 (100 winning percentage)
2005: 15-2 (88.24 winning percentage)
2006: 19-4 (82.61 winning percentage)
2007: 17-4 (80.95 winning percentage)
2008: 7-10 (41.18 winning percentage)
2009: 14-10 (58.33 winning percentage)
2010: 15-6 (71.43 winning percentage)
2011: 5-9 (35.71 winning percentage - after Paris Indoor)

Career: 138-73 (65.40 winning percentage)

this confirms what I was GOING to post, that 2005 was actually probably the better year for Fed. sure, results wise not as much, but playing level definitely.

DjokovicForTheWin · Nov 14, 2011

Cup8489 said:
this confirms what I was GOING to post, that 2005 was actually probably the better year for Fed. sure, results wise not as much, but playing level definitely.

But then that would imply that 2004 > 2005 playing level wise, but maybe not true.

Mustard · Nov 14, 2011

Federer's losses in 2004 were to:

#11 Tim Henman in Rotterdam QF
#34 Rafael Nadal in Miami R32
#39 Albert Costa in Rome R32
#30 Gustavo Kuerten in French Open R32
#21 Dominik Hrbaty in Cincinnati R64
#79 Tomas Berdych in Athens Olympics R32

Emet74 · Nov 14, 2011

Cup8489 said:
this confirms what I was GOING to post, that 2005 was actually probably the better year for Fed. sure, results wise not as much, but playing level definitely.

IMO not really since all the 2006 losses were to the same player, Nadal.

His problem was that matchup (esp on clay where he lost 3 matches); not his overall level of play, at least based on win/loss stats alone.

Bergboy123 · Nov 14, 2011

What the hell, is Mustard like a book or something? You're amazing!!

purge · Nov 14, 2011

its hard to pick which year was actually his best during his peak because he was just amazing throughout pretty much

you could also rate 2005 down because he lost a few matches he maybe shouldnt have lost.

Biscuitmcgriddleson · Nov 14, 2011

Mustard said:
Federer's win-loss record against top 10 players is:

1998: 0-1 (0 winning percentage)
1999: 1-4 (20 winning percentage)
2000: 3-8 (27.27 winning percentage)
2001: 5-5 (50 winning percentage)
2002: 10-5 (66.67 winning percentage)
2003: 9-5 (64.29 winning percentage)
2004: 18-0 (100 winning percentage)
2005: 15-2 (88.24 winning percentage)
2006: 19-4 (82.61 winning percentage)
2007: 17-4 (80.95 winning percentage)
2008: 7-10 (41.18 winning percentage)
2009: 14-10 (58.33 winning percentage)
2010: 15-6 (71.43 winning percentage)
2011: 5-9 (35.71 winning percentage - after Paris Indoor)

Career: 138-73 (65.40 winning percentage)

Stuff like this is why Mustard is the real GOAT

tennis_pro · Nov 15, 2011

So Federer is 69-8 against top 10 in 2004-2007.

sbengte · Nov 15, 2011

Mustard, can you also share similar stats for Rafa ?

angler · Nov 15, 2011

Must applaud to Mustard devotion to tennis. Well done.

joeri888 · Nov 15, 2011

tennis_pro said:
So Federer is 69-8 against top 10 in 2004-2007.

Of this 8, about 6 or so came against Nadal?

Mustard · Nov 15, 2011

sbengte said:
Mustard, can you also share similar stats for Rafa ?

Sure. Nadal's win-loss record against top 10 players is:

2003: 2-1 (a 66.67 winning percentage)
2004: 2-2 (a 50 winning percentage)
2005: 5-3 (a 62.50 winning percentage)
2006: 10-3 (a 76.92 winning percentage)
2007: 11-7 (a 61.11 winning percentage)
2008: 17-6 (a 73.91 winning percentage)
2009: 14-11 (a 56 winning percentage)
2010: 11-5 (a 68.75 winning percentage)
2011: 15-9 (a 62.50 winning percentage - after Shanghai)

Career: 87-47 (a 64.93 winning percentage)

Mustard · Nov 15, 2011

tennis_pro said:
So Federer is 69-8 against top 10 in 2004-2007.

69-10.

joeri888 said:
Of this 8, about 6 or so came against Nadal?

Federer's 10 losses to top 10 players between 2004-2007 were:

2004
None.

2005
#4 Safin in Australian Open SF
#5 Nadal in French Open SF

2006
#2 Nadal in Dubai F
#2 Nadal in Monte Carlo F
#2 Nadal in Rome F
#2 Nadal in French Open F

2007
#2 Nadal in Monte Carlo F
#2 Nadal in French Open F
#4 Djokovic in Montreal F
#7 Gonzalez in Masters Cup RR

MichaelNadal · Nov 15, 2011

Very impressive stuff, thanks Mustard

_maxi · Nov 15, 2011

Didn't Nadal play ATP matches in 2001 and 2002? I thought he became professional in 2001.

Mustard · Nov 15, 2011

_maxi said:
Didn't Nadal play ATP matches in 2001 and 2002? I thought he became professional in 2001.

Nadal did turn professional in 2001. Nadal started out on the Satellite circuit at the start of 2001, when he was 14 years old. He tried to qualify for the main tour event in Mallorca that year, but lost to Sergio Roitman in straight sets. In July 2001, he played on the Futures tour for the first time, and in September 2001, he played on the Challenger circuit for the first time. 2002 saw Nadal mostly play on the Satellite and Futures tours, with a handful of Challenger tournaments. He tried and failed to qualify for 2002 Barcelona, losing to Stefano Galvani in straight sets, and he did get a wildcard into 2002 Mallorca, winning a match against Ramon Delgado, before losing to Olivier Rochus.

Nadal virtually skipped the juniors almost entirely. The only junior events he played were 2002 Junior Wimbledon, losing in the semi finals to Lamine Ouahab after he had beaten current pros by the name of Brian Dabul and Philipp Petzschner, and 2002 Junior Davis Cup in France where he won every match he played.

Nadal's first match against a top 10 player was against the reigning French Open champion, Albert Costa, at 2003 Monte Carlo. Costa was ranked #7 in the world while Nadal was ranked #109 in the world. Nadal won 7-5, 6-3. 1 month later at 2003 Hamburg, Nadal beat world number 4, Carlos Moya, 7-5, 6-4.

tennis_pro · Nov 15, 2011

Mustard said:
Federer's 10 losses to top 10 players between 2004-2007 were:

2004
None.

2005
#4 Safin in Australian Open SF
#5 Nadal in French Open SF

2006
#2 Nadal in Dubai F
#2 Nadal in Monte Carlo F
#2 Nadal in Rome F
#2 Nadal in French Open F

2007
#2 Nadal in Monte Carlo F
#2 Nadal in French Open F
#4 Djokovic in Montreal F
#7 Gonzalez in Masters Cup RR

Wasn't Nalbandian ranked in the top 10 when he beat Federer at the 2005 MC?

Mustard · Nov 15, 2011

tennis_pro said:
Wasn't Nalbandian ranked in the top 10 when he beat Federer at the 2005 MC?

No. Nalbandian was ranked at #12 at that time.

sheq · Nov 15, 2011

Mustard said:
No. Nalbandian was ranked at #12 at that time.

Mustard you must be the Goat !

DjokovicForTheWin · Nov 15, 2011

Hey Mustard, I think the board really appreciates your efforts, but tell us the truth, do you get chicks?

beast of mallorca · Nov 15, 2011

Kudos to you Mustard. Great job !

Mainad · Nov 15, 2011

DjokovicForTheWin said:
Hey Mustard, I think the board really appreciates your efforts, but tell us the truth, do you get chicks?

"Hey Gorgeous, wanna come up and see my stats?" is one of the oldest chat-up lines in the business. Didn't you know that? :wink:

beast of mallorca · Nov 15, 2011

Mainad said:
"Hey Gorgeous, wanna come up and see my stats?" is one of the oldest chat-up lines in the business. Didn't you know that? :wink:

He doesn't. He doesn't have Mustard's charisma, lol

vive le beau jeu ! · Nov 15, 2011

DjokovicForTheWin said:
Hey Mustard, I think the board really appreciates your efforts, but tell us the truth, do you get chicks?

2003: 2-1 (a 66.67 flirting percentage)
2004: 2-2 (a 50 flirting percentage)
2005: 5-3 (a 62.50 flirting percentage)
2006: 10-3 (a 76.92 flirting percentage)
2007: 11-6 (a 64.71 flirting percentage)
2008: 16-6 (a 72.73 flirting percentage)
2009: 14-11 (a 56 flirting percentage)
2010: 11-5 (a 68.75 flirting percentage)
2011: 15-9 (a 62.50 flirting percentage - after Paris-Boulogne)

between 2005 and 2007, mustard was at his peak: he got 26 chicks out of 41 (but none in the top 10).

sorry mus'... just teasing.

Agassifan · Nov 15, 2011

So Rafa is steady against the Top 10, whereas Fed has had ups and downs, but his ups were devastatingly brilliant. Amazed that even in Rafa's best year, he was only 11-5

RF20Lennon · Nov 15, 2011

DjokovicForTheWin said:
Ask Mustard he's geeky enough to have it all No insult intended

I know all the scores of fed matches on the top of my head LOL seriously so what would that make me?

sbengte · Nov 16, 2011

Thanks Mustard, you truly are the stats GOAT

Mustard said:
Federer********************************* Nadal
1998: 0-1 (0 winning percentage)
1999: 1-4 (20 winning percentage)
2000: 3-8 (27.27 winning percentage)
2001: 5-5 (50 winning percentage)
2002: 10-5 (66.67 winning percentage)
2003: 9-5 (64.29 winning percentage)*****2-1 (66.67 winning percentage)
2004: 18-0 (100 winning percentage)*****2-2 (50 winning percentage)
2005: 15-2 (88.24 winningpercentage)*****5-3(62.50 winning percentage)
2006: 19-4 (82.61 winning percentage)****10-3 (76.92 winning percentage)
2007: 17-4 (80.95 winning percentage)****11-6 (64.71 winning percentage)
2008: 7-10 (41.18 winning percentage)****16-6 (72.73 winning percentage)
2009: 14-10 (58.33 winning percentage)***14-11 (56 winning percentage)
2010: 15-6 (71.43 winning percentage)****11-5 (68.75 winning percentage)
2011: 5-9 (35.71 winning percentage)***** 15-9 (62.50 winning percentage)

Career: 138-73 (65.40) ************** 86-46(65.15)

I just put the two side by side for comparison. Federer's prime clearly is 2004-2007 in which he had multiple 3 slam years. On the other hand, Rafa doesn't have a clear prime going by these stats. You can probably say 2006-2011 with 2009 being a slump year.
The player with the higher winning percentage against top 10 always had more slams than the other, with 2010 being an aberration. Although Rafa won 3 slams in 2010, his winning percentage against top 10(68.75) is less than Federer's(71.43) in 2010 who won just one slam in that year.
Also, Fed beat a lot more top 10 players in the years he dominated and won 3 slams (18,19,17) while Rafa beat far less(11).

glazkovss · Nov 16, 2011

And what about Djokovic, Murray?

Mustard · Nov 16, 2011

glazkovss said:
And what about Djokovic, Murray?

Djokovic's win-loss record against top 10 players
2005: 1-2 (a 33.33 winning percentage)
2006: 1-7 (a 12.50 winning percentage)
2007: 6-10 (a 37.50 winning percentage)
2008: 11-11 (a 50 winning percentage)
2009: 14-12 (a 53.85 winning percentage)
2010: 4-8 (a 33.33 winning percentage)
2011: 20-2 (a 90.91 winning percentage - after Paris Indoor)

Career: 57-52 (a 52.29 winning percentage)

Murray's win-loss record against top 10 players
2005: 0-2 (a 0 winning percentage)
2006: 4-4 (a 50 winning percentage)
2007: 5-6 (a 45.45 winning percentage)
2008: 10-8 (a 55.56 winning percentage)
2009: 14-6 (a 70 winning percentage)
2010: 7-5 (a 58.33 winning percentage)
2011: 7-7 (a 50 winning percentage - after Paris Indoor)

Career: 47-38 (a 55.29 winning percentage)

Cup8489 · Nov 16, 2011

Mustard said:
Djokovic's win-loss record against top 10 players
2005: 1-2 (a 33.33 winning percentage)
2006: 1-7 (a 12.50 winning percentage)
2007: 6-10 (a 37.50 winning percentage)
2008: 11-11 (a 50 winning percentage)
2009: 14-12 (a 53.85 winning percentage)
2010: 4-8 (a 33.33 winning percentage)
2011: 20-2 (a 90.91 winning percentage - after Paris Indoor)
Career: 57-52 (a 52.29 winning percentage)

Murray's win-loss record against top 10 players
2005: 0-2 (a 0 winning percentage)
2006: 4-4 (a 50 winning percentage)
2007: 5-6 (a 45.45 winning percentage)
2008: 10-8 (a 55.56 winning percentage)
2009: 14-6 (a 70 winning percentage)
2010: 7-5 (a 58.33 winning percentage)
2011: 7-7 (a 50 winning percentage - after Paris Indoor)

Career: 47-38 (a 55.29 winning percentage)

Jesus.....

DjokovicForTheWin · Nov 16, 2011

sbengte said:
Thanks Mustard, you truly are the stats GOAT

I just put the two side by side for comparison. Federer's prime clearly is 2004-2007 in which he had multiple 3 slam years. On the other hand, Rafa doesn't have a clear prime going by these stats. You can probably say 2006-2011 with 2009 being a slump year.
The player with the higher winning percentage against top 10 always had more slams than the other, with 2010 being an aberration. Although Rafa won 3 slams in 2010, his winning percentage against top 10(68.75) is less than Federer's(71.43) in 2010 who won just one slam in that year.
Also, Fed beat a lot more top 10 players in the years he dominated and won 3 slams (18,19,17) while Rafa beat far less(11).

Pretty much proves that Rafa has simply geared his whole career to beat Roger. Whereas Roger is the better tennis player since he fares better against the field. Hell even at Rafa's peak in 2010, Roger fares better against the field. Very very telling.

dudeski · Nov 16, 2011

Mustard said:
Sure. Nadal's win-loss record against top 10 players is:

2003: 2-1 (a 66.67 winning percentage)
2004: 2-2 (a 50 winning percentage)
2005: 5-3 (a 62.50 winning percentage)
2006: 10-3 (a 76.92 winning percentage)
2007: 11-6 (a 64.71 winning percentage)
2008: 16-6 (a 72.73 winning percentage)
2009: 14-11 (a 56 winning percentage)
2010: 11-5 (a 68.75 winning percentage)
2011: 15-9 (a 62.50 winning percentage - after Shanghai)

Career: 86-46 (a 65.15 winning percentage)

So basically Nadal's prime started in 2005 which mean Fed competed against prime Nadal since 2005. Which means Fed only had only one year (2004) of his own prime with so called weak competition i.e. without a double digit slam winner being his main rival. In conclusion the so called weak era overlapped only one year (2004) of Fed's prime.

dudeski · Nov 16, 2011

DjokovicForTheWin said:
Pretty much proves that Rafa has simply geared his whole career to beat Roger. Whereas Roger is the better tennis player since he fares better against the field. Hell even at Rafa's peak in 2010, Roger fares better against the field. Very very telling.

2006 was peak Nadal according to those stats. So in 2006 Federer had 92-4 year while dealing with peak year of a 10+ slam winner.

nhat8121 · Nov 16, 2011

if 2006 were the peak year of Federer, what does that make Nadal? Nadal beat Fed 4 times that year.

dudeski · Nov 16, 2011

nhat8121 said:
if 2006 were the peak year of Federer, what does that make Nadal? Nadal beat Fed 4 times that year.

Wrong. Look at the stats again. 2006 was Nadal's peak year. 2004 and 2005 were better for Fed.

Cup8489 · Nov 16, 2011

nhat8121 said:
if 2006 were the peak year of Federer, what does that make Nadal? Nadal beat Fed 4 times that year.

The french open champion, as opposed to the Australian Open, Wimbledon, and US Open Champion.

tennis_pro · Nov 16, 2011

nhat8121 said:
if 2006 were the peak year of Federer, what does that make Nadal? Nadal beat Fed 4 times that year.

3 times on clay and once on hard courts where Federer was still injured. Thanks for playing.

DjokovicForTheWin · Nov 16, 2011

nhat8121 said:
if 2006 were the peak year of Federer, what does that make Nadal? Nadal beat Fed 4 times that year.

Hmmm, Nadal could beat Fed 4 times that year, yet he won fewer slams. Curiouser and curiouser.

nadalwon2012 · Nov 16, 2011

So..

Federer is 65.4% vs top 10.
Nadal is 65.15% vs top 10.

Interesting to see who finishes with the better winning% when they retire. Federer's fall from grace has been steep. Nadal being the hard-worker that he is will probably always be consistently decent vs top 10, even in decline.

Federer record vs. top 10

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