Dawgie Dawg
Rookie
UGA 80%
USC 10%
UCLA 5%
Ohio State 4%
Kentucky 1%
what do you think?
USC 10%
UCLA 5%
Ohio State 4%
Kentucky 1%
what do you think?
USC 58% - clear favorite in my book, as dubs and Johnson will give them a 2-0 lead in each match they play on the way to the title
UVA 16% - top 3 clicking now, but relatively weak dubs, questionable depth, and likely a tough draw shaping up...also I question Domi's toughness in the heat (and with rowdy crowds like he saw last year at Stanford) against some of the top #2s he will face...UVA might be wise to switch him and Frank for NCAAs
Ohio St 10% - if they play great dubs like they did in Indoors, they will be a tough out, but they will likely lose to a deep team like UGA or UCLA after losing a fickle dubs pt (or just lose straight up to the two better teams above) - @theotherkobe is the man, but he won't beat a guy like Frank again in NCAAs
UCLA 6% - the Meister-Thompson switch will hurt them, and I don't know if their depth can overcome that against the top teams - those guys will have to outdo themselves for UCLA to even make a final now
UGA 4% - yeah yeah home court advantage blah blah blah - this team has not looked like a superpower to me this season - they'll probably barely survive a team similar to UF like they did in the regular season then lose in the quarters - if their dubs was better I might buy into "the pit" carrying them to a title match a bit more
Duke 3% - 1) need another team to take out USC, which isn't likely to happen 2) need dubs pts, which they have a fighting chance of against most teams and 3) need Cunha to stop losing to guys like Jenkins and Hernandez and reclaim his inner barriCunha
Kentucky 3% - similar in a lot of ways to Duke - they'll need to get ahead of the game with dubs pts and get some good play out of the veteran Quigley
anyone else 0%
UVA 16% - top 3 clicking now, but relatively weak dubs, questionable depth, and likely a tough draw shaping up...also I question Domi's toughness in the heat (and with rowdy crowds like he saw last year at Stanford) against some of the top #2s he will face...UVA might be wise to switch him and Frank for NCAAs
Sounds like some of this analysis is seriously out of date. Domijan was a nervous freshman in his first NCAA final 16 last year. That won't be a problem this year, and that is one reason the sophomore Domijan stays ahead of the freshman, Frank.
Drew Courtney flew to Alabama a little while ago to get custom shoe orthotics for his foot problem. He seems to be a new man. You might want to check his results from the ACC tournament at #1 doubles and #4 singles. "Top 4 clicking now" is even better than "top 3 clicking now." You also might want to check the results at #3 doubles.
Most of your assessment sounds spot on if only it had been written about a month ago.
Also what do you think about UVa's doubles lineup? Hard to believe (especially with the scores from the ACC tournament) that frank and domijan will stay at 3 doubles. I thought they were better than rooda/shane all along. Do you think they should keep the rooda/shane pairing together?
It's not always pretty or dominant. But a win's a win. Results speak for themselves.
Sounds like some of this analysis is seriously out of date.
Domijan was a nervous freshman in his first NCAA final 16 last year. That won't be a problem this year, and that is one reason the sophomore Domijan stays ahead of the freshman, Frank.
Drew Courtney flew to Alabama a little while ago to get custom shoe orthotics for his foot problem. He seems to be a new man. You might want to check his results from the ACC tournament at #1 doubles and #4 singles. "Top 4 clicking now" is even better than "top 3 clicking now."
You also might want to check the results at #3 doubles.
Most of your assessment sounds spot on if only it had been written about a month ago.
I'm surprised that Dawgie Dawg dosen't have UGA at 100%
an, when you don't tell UGA and UVA fans that you think they are superpowers with tremendous chances of winning NCAAs, you really ruffle some feathers...sorry?
I don;t understand why a Duke fan has that much bravado.
man, when you don't tell UGA and UVA fans that you think they are superpowers with tremendous chances of winning NCAAs, you really ruffle some feathers...sorry?
No feathers ruffled here. I was just providing a counterpoint to what you said, because it honestly sounded like the same things that UVa fans were saying as we worried about our team a month ago. Drew Courtney was really struggling in every match a few weeks ago, even against competition that was not that great. His performance at the ACC tourney was three excellent doubles matches and three excellent singles matches, not just one win against Saba.
(truncated)
Notice I did not contradict your claim that we are shaky at 5 and 6, because we have yet to prove otherwise against top level competition. Another wild card is that Domijan and Frank are looking great at #3 doubles, but will probably have to play #2 in the NCAAs as a result. At this point, we don't even know who that will leave at #3 doubles. However, when you consider that we were losing almost every doubles point against top 25 teams for a good stretch of the season, and now we have two doubles teams that are suddenly looking very good, then there is some reason for optimism. We have to continue to keep an eye on the bottom of the singles and doubles lineups in the NCAA regionals before we can decide exactly how optimistic we should be. If we cannot pick up wins at #3 doubles and #5-6 singles, then it is a tough task. But if Courtney still was struggling at #4, then it would have put us in the long shot category -- say, about 16% chance of winning it.
a solid enough response
i'll just say
#1) there's a big difference b/t middle-of-the-road ACC competition at 4 singles and UCLA / USC / OSU at those positions - same w/ 3 dubs...turning things around bigtime vs some ACC opponents doesn't tell me much of anything about how things will go at the next level of competition...so yes a step in the right direction but I'll stay skeptical
#2) even some of the positions where UVA has been great like #1 dubs will likely be underdogs vs the big guns - USC, OSU, and UCLA are fantastic at that spot - did you see UCLA treat Cal and Stanford's #1 dubs teams like they were a couple of 4.5 USTA teams in back to back matches? - so again I don't know if UVA can win more than 2/4 dubs pts even if they have gotten a bit better at the lower spots
The best that Virginia fans can say about the 5/6 singles positions is that we will see how we look at the NCAA regionals, and even the round of 16, before we decide whether we are optimistic or not. UCLA is a depth team. The bottom two positions are their strength. I don't see them getting a point at the top 4 positions, however, and I think the doubles point is probably going to be a toss-up if we play them. I am not sure that they will end up on our side of the draw. Depends on the USC-UCLA match tomorrow. If Thompson beats Sarmiento, then UCLA has a shot at another 4-3 win, and that would put them at #2 in the nation by my calculations, and Virginia would be down to #5, on the other side of the draw. But I would be happy right now if you told me that we will meet UCLA in the final!
UCLA is a depth team. The bottom two positions are their strength. I don't see them getting a point at the top 4 positions, however, and I think the doubles point is probably going to be a toss-up if we play them.
USC 58% - clear favorite in my book, as dubs and Johnson will give them a 2-0 lead in each match they play on the way to the title
No weaknesses? Here's one. I really think UCLA exposed a few cracks in the Trojan foundation, and I'm going to question their depth. I really like Hanfmann and I think he can develop into their #1 player over the next few years, but he is just a freshman. Quiroz has not been overly dominant, and it's hard not to say that Gomez is having a sophomore slump. I'm not saying they can't step up, but I could see them being seriously tested in the semis and finals if they make it that far.
No weaknesses? Here's one. I really think UCLA exposed a few cracks in the Trojan foundation, and I'm going to question their depth...[truncated]...I could see them being seriously tested in the semis and finals if they make it that far.
never said they have no weaknesses and i can see them being tested also - we're talking about chances of winning not chances of never sweating en route
but like i said in my little blurb about them - i see them getting a 2-0 cushion in each match they play - weaknesses or not at the #2-6 positions, i wish other teams the best of luck winning 4 out of those remaining 5 spots
Don't forget about some floaters. Teams like Duke,Pepperdine and maybe Kentuckly can be upset by Oklahoma,Ole Miss or Miss State.
The tournament will be so fun
congrats to UVA on probably avoiding the 4-5 match vs UCLA
OSU vs UCLA now???
Ohio State vs. UCLA is a really tough match to predict, position by position, especially due to some recent inconsistency from the players on both teams. I have said before that it is really tough to predict how college athletes in general will perform. These are not mature professionals. In a pressure sport like tennis, it is especially true.
Then you have very little in common opponents from these two teams from different regions of the country. How do you gauge Novikov vs. Kobelt, Giron vs Van Engelen with Giron's talent but injuries and inconsistencies and youth, Meister vs. Buchanan?
How do you gauge Novikov vs. Kobelt
only one of these players has hit a game-winning shot against Big Walnut - novikov has no comparable athletic achievement
so i'd have to go with @theotherkobe
Look me in the eye and tell me your team is going to beat the Dawgs on the Dawg Pound.
Yeah didn't think so
I'll go:
USC 40%
Uva 20%
Uga 15%
UCLA/OSU 10% each
Uky, Oklahoma, 5% each
Field 0%
I'm going USC over UVa in the finals
bad math, I'll take out the %5 for OU now haha
a solid enough response
i'll just say
#1) there's a big difference b/t middle-of-the-road ACC competition at 4 singles and UCLA / USC / OSU at those positions - same w/ 3 dubs...turning things around bigtime vs some ACC opponents doesn't tell me much of anything about how things will go at the next level of competition...so yes a step in the right direction but I'll stay skeptical
#2) even some of the positions where UVA has been great like #1 dubs will likely be underdogs vs the big guns - USC, OSU, and UCLA are fantastic at that spot - did you see UCLA treat Cal and Stanford's #1 dubs teams like they were a couple of 4.5 USTA teams in back to back matches? - so again I don't know if UVA can win more than 2/4 dubs pts even if they have gotten a bit better at the lower spots
True. I can hardly imagine someone beating Cal's #1 doubles team badly. How could UCLA do that? Certainly, Virginia could never do that.