If 12/1/17, what is likely cut-off for matches included in their algorithm? 11/4?
When do the new NTRP ratings come out?
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NumbersGuy
Rookie
Yesterday I believe, the date of the last non-Mixed Nationals
I think I read on schmke's blog that 90% of players stay at their level. I'm wondering aloud if that includes USTA players who are not active in a given year. It would be interesting to roughly know what percentage players who completed at least 3 matches in a year stayed at their current level.
That's what he means. If you don't play 3 matches you don't get a new rating.
OnTheLine
Hall of Fame
yes, however it is two different questions . Is it 90% of All players stay the same or is it 90% of all ACTIVE players stay the same?
If I recall @schmke 's blog post correctly that 90% is more accurate the higher the level and there is more movement as a percentage at the lower levels than at the higher levels.
If I recall @schmke 's blog post correctly that 90% is more accurate the higher the level and there is more movement as a percentage at the lower levels than at the higher levels.
schmke
Legend
Yeah, it varies by year and level, but on average around 85% of players stay the same level with 5-10% bumped up or down. And these are players that played at least three matches and get a new year-end rating. It does not include those that don't play and just keep their prior rating.
schmke
Legend
For 2016 year-end, it was 87% with 4% going down and 9% up. Google "2016 USTA League NTRP rating bump percentages" to find it since I'm not allowed to post links. You should also be able to find it broken out by section and level.
And yes, I plan to do this all again for 2017 year-end so find/read the blog.
But here is the chart for all levels by section for 2016 year-end:
BeyondTheTape
Semi-Pro
Ratings WEEK 
Post your YE rating expectation: Do you expect to stay the same level, get bumped down, bumped up?
I don't have a large sample size having only played 5 matches at my level this year. Went 3-2. Didnt make post season. With one of my losses to two players who went 2-2 at 4.5 Nationals.
Expect to stay at 4.5
There is a lot of buzz in my area this past week. Exciting times for sure.
Post your YE rating expectation: Do you expect to stay the same level, get bumped down, bumped up?
I don't have a large sample size having only played 5 matches at my level this year. Went 3-2. Didnt make post season. With one of my losses to two players who went 2-2 at 4.5 Nationals.
Expect to stay at 4.5
There is a lot of buzz in my area this past week. Exciting times for sure.
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Nostradamus
Bionic Poster
Every player in top 20 % in their respective ratings Must be bumped up. this should be a new rule. Then and only then we will have some teams going in the 5.0 USTA leagues.For 2016 year-end, it was 87% with 4% going down and 9% up. Google "2016 USTA League NTRP rating bump percentages" to find it since I'm not allowed to post links. You should also be able to find it broken out by section and level.
And yes, I plan to do this all again for 2017 year-end so find/read the blog.
But here is the chart for all levels by section for 2016 year-end:
McLovin
Legend
Yeah, same here. Went 5-1, with my lone loss being at Districts to an excellent team that was essentially a wash as the score was 6-4, 4-6, 1-0. Additionally, all my 'regular season' wins were vs 4.0s as we don't have enough 4.5s to make 2 full teams, so the 'B' team supplements w/ 4.0s. I suspect there isn't enough data to justify a 5.0 bump.Ratings WEEK
Post your YE rating expectation: Do you expect to stay the same level, get bumped down, bumped up?
I don't have a large sample size having only played 5 matches at my level this year. Went 3-2. Didnt make post season. Expect to stay at 4.5
There is a lot of buzz in my area this past week. Exciting times for sure.
However, the Mid-Atlantic 4.5 team lost in the finals of Nationals, so a bunch of them will likely get bumped to 5.0.
J011yroger
Talk Tennis Guru
J011yroger
Talk Tennis Guru
Yea, Eastern won last year and a whole bunch of guys from our section went up, not just the winning team.
I sabotaged my rating and year long effort with one bad day. Oh well. Gonna have to wreck the field in 2018.
J
Do you mean the bagel at nationals? It would be a real shame if you were punished for getting smoked by a guy who clearly tanked a whole year to even be eligible to play at that level.
Nostradamus
Bionic Poster
Right , in order for USTA to survive, this must be true for ALL sections of USA ,, not just few. only then it will bring legitimacy to USTA amateur tennis and will the Glory days of 1970's and 1080's come back to tennis in USA.
J011yroger
Talk Tennis Guru
Not really, I played below my level for a variety of reasons that weekend, it was a poor effort on all three matches.
Regardless, it was my first year of making a bunch of deep post season runs and I learned more about what it takes to do well. I also have some very big positives to take away.
I'm disappointed in the system I guess because my entire season is basically meaningless as far as ratings go, but I made the right choices personally and for my teams.
At the end of the day it's still just a number and if the worst that happens is that I get guilted into playing 4.5 another year and have to drive a couple hours and pay $30 for a 45 minute singles match it's not the end of the world.
J
J011yroger
Talk Tennis Guru
Not my fault you live in BFE. If you are going to let all manner of hackers into 5.0 then there needs to be a legitimate 5.5 division.
J
Nostradamus
Bionic Poster
top 50 % of the 4.5 guys are not hackers. we can hit tennis balls with good spin(topspin) not junk spin like 4.0's do. and many of us have played college tennis albeit 20-30 years ago.
******And my Suggestions to USTA, from this point on,,, EVERY USTA nationals should be held in that Beautiful USTA national tennis center in Florida. This will inject NEW excitement and new Vitality into Amateur USTA tennis. Just remember USTA, you can't survive without amateur players playing having fun all across the country. All that money you are pouring into Junior development will mean Nothing if Amateur tennis continues to decline as it is now.************
J011yroger
Talk Tennis Guru
McLovin
Legend
I agree on the "Its just a number", however I'd like to be bumped for the opposite reason as you: Staying at 4.5 guilts me into playing another season for my club, where if I went back up to 5.0, I could legitimately 'pass' on the season as we don't have a 5.0 league nearby, and I'm not driving 45min to/from Northern VA on the weekends or at 9PM weekdays.
Honestly I'd rather just play for fun, and throw in the occasional tournament here & there (like Grass Court Nationals). I'm tired of the USTA League BS. But, since I've belonged to the club for over 20 years, I feel obligated to support it, both in USTA and local tournaments.
SouthernCourts
Semi-Pro
For those who haven't seen it, Tennis Record now has a "bump probability" rating for each player.
J011yroger
Talk Tennis Guru
SandbaggerI didn’t get to play the spring season so I will have my same rating as last year.
Although I wish I could appeal down so I could get to my correct TT level
winchestervatennis
Hall of Fame
Maybe CF will take the place as Mid Atlantic rep for nationals. Then you'd surely get bumped to where you belong.
Wow I just looked at all the folks in our area.
There was a guy that self rated 3.0 and according to tennis record he registered a 4.25 in his first mixed match then he had a 4.11 after his second match. Looks like he sandbagged the last two matches to bring him to a 3.95.
I really hope that is just tennis record being awful and not that someone legitimately underrated themselves 3 levels.
There was a guy that self rated 3.0 and according to tennis record he registered a 4.25 in his first mixed match
then he had a 4.11 after his second match. Looks like he sandbagged the last two matches to bring him to a 3.95.I really hope that is just tennis record being awful and not that someone legitimately underrated themselves 3 levels.
Nostradamus
Bionic Poster
Wow I just looked at all the folks in our area.
There was a guy that self rated 3.0 and according to tennis record he registered a 4.25 in his first mixed match
I really hope that is just tennis record being awful and not that someone legitimately underrated themselves 3 levels.
Is the Mixed doubles rating completely separate from your regular men's USTA league ratings ?? or are they connected in anyway ?
Shankadelic
Rookie
I think TR has a lot of people rated too high right now.
J011yroger
Talk Tennis Guru
McLovin
Legend
Sorry, I misunderstood your post. I thought you were implying you wanted to be bumped to 5.0 so you could play more USTA locally, where I want to be bumped to 5.0 so I can tell the club "Sorry, can't play this year".
5.0 for me would be like 4.5 for you (i.e., having to drive 45 min for a match), which I do not plan on doing again.
Separate.
J011yroger
Talk Tennis Guru
McLovin
Legend
Ha! We'll never make it out of Districts, mainly because our team has an 'elbow' problem, ala Sam Malone...
Shankadelic
Rookie
I am sure the average number of visits to TR's website skyrocketed this week so they did a good job. Their advertisers are certainly happy.
On a serious note, I like a lot of the features TR has... except the actual rating number they have for most is wrong. Agree, minor detail.
winchestervatennis
Hall of Fame
I may be about as young as possible to get that reference without an assist from tvland or nick at night
J011yroger
Talk Tennis Guru
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Is that what the stupid little gauge on the website is supposed to be denoting?
Is that what the stupid little gauge on the website is supposed to be denoting?
Tom nguyen
New User
Hi everyone, newbie here. How do they calculate the rating? According to tennis record I am at 3.3 and tls is 3.18, but I have decent record at 19/4 with 3 wins and no defeat at dstrict (40+ and 18+). I wonder if I would get bump up or not.
MisterP
Hall of Fame
I think he's talking about the year end projected rating. Although TR has included fall results in that calculation for me, which is incorrect since only spring and mixed count towards my year end rating in my section.
Jim A
Professional
We brought cases of CO craft beer for our team gifts at Sectionals this year. Nice to know others follow the “win or lose, we grill and booze” mentality
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
J011yroger
Talk Tennis Guru
ncgator
Rookie
That's odd - TR seems to have players too low in my area...
Shankadelic
Rookie
Using TR's "very high" or "high" Bump Probability indicator, they have 20+ guys going from 4.0 to 4.5 in my area. 15+ for the ladies. The count for 3.5 to 4.0 is even higher. TLS, on the other hand, seems to be a little closer to actual (I have nothing to back that statement up except comparing people I know to each other) and have a lot less people slated for bump ups. How does TLS rate the players in your area (too high, too low, about right)?
OnTheLine
Hall of Fame
TLS hasn't updated in 2 months in my area, and our fall league counts towards ratings. They are missing about 14 of my matches, waste of space for me.
On the High level of probability among women in my area ... great migration down from 4.0 to 3.5 and down from 3.5 to 3.0 and up from 2.5 to 3.0, if they are to believed.
I will be taking a few screen shots and compare it with people who I know just to see on Friday.
On the High level of probability among women in my area ... great migration down from 4.0 to 3.5 and down from 3.5 to 3.0 and up from 2.5 to 3.0, if they are to believed.
I will be taking a few screen shots and compare it with people who I know just to see on Friday.
ncgator
Rookie
I completely discount TLS ratings since they were so inaccurate last year, but they generally show players with lower rating than USTA (i.e. predicting many more bump downs than actually occurred). There was very little movement either way (bump up or down) last year at 4.0/4.5 level in my area (North Carolina/Southern).
ncgator
Rookie
TennisLink currently showing the following message: ATTENTION TENNISLINK CUSTOMERS: TennisLink will be unavailable between 3AM and 7AM EST for system maintenance on Tuesday November 28th. We apologize for the inconvenience.
Any chance this is to update year-end ratings, and ratings could be published earlier than Friday?
Any chance this is to update year-end ratings, and ratings could be published earlier than Friday?
