2021 Race to WTF

[mightyjeditribble]

The race to make it to the World Tour Finals is entering its final stretch. Djokovic, Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Zverev, Rublec & Berrettini are already qualified. In the competition for the remaining two spots, here are the current live standings according to Live-Tennis.EU:

7. Ruud 3015
9. Hurkacz 2955
10. Norrie 2795
11. Sinner 2640 (at most 2845 after Antwerp)
12. FAA 2330
13. Karatsev 2075 (at most 2280 after Moscow)
14. PCB 1920
15. Basilashvili 1885
16. Shapovalov 1835
17. Schwartzman 1750 (at most 1955 after Antwerp)
18. RBA 1630
19. Opelka 1505
20. Harris 1407 (at most 1612 after Antwerp)

Of these, Karatsev, Shapovalov and RBA are entered for St Petersburg (250) next week; all the others are playing Vienna.

With Norrie making that run at IW and catapulting himself into contention, predictions are risky. But it looks very much like a race for the last 2 places between Ruud, Hurkacz, and Norrie, potentially joined by Sinner if he wins Antwerp. There is a very slight chance that FAA could play himself into contention with a title win in Vienna, but even then he would rely on at least a QF in Paris AND the guys above him in this race all dropping early in Vienna & Paris - which seems unlikely.

Who do you think will make it?

 

[stringertom]

I like the two Miami finalists. Sinner <3s some indoor HC (2x Sofia champion). Hurkacz has all the tools to thrive indoors as well (Metz champion).

It’s really tight and the path from Moscow/Antwerp to Stockholm in order to be in at Torino is like Around The Continent In 30 Days. Lots of twists, turns and road hazards. It’s crazy that a match or two in Stockholm could determine who’s in The Elite 8.

 

[BGod]

Hurkacz & Norrie both going past Ruud.

 

[stringertom]

Two Saturday SFs will help to determine contender vs pretender status for Sinner (vs Harris at Antwerp) and Karatsev (vs Khachanov at Moscow).

A loss by Karatsev in particular will be his - 30 - moment, being the trailing horse in the race and choosing to play the ATP250 in St. Petersburg next week instead of ATP500 Vienna.

Sinner’s path won’t fully close if the tough Harris pulls off the mild upset but he won’t squeeze past idle Norrie into the effective #9 slot with the Antwerp title.

 

[Aabye5]

Two Saturday SFs will help to determine contender vs pretender status for Sinner (vs Harris at Antwerp) and Karatsev (vs Khachanov at Moscow).

A loss by Karatsev in particular will be his - 30 - moment, being the trailing horse in the race and choosing to play the ATP250 in St. Petersburg next week instead of ATP500 Vienna.

Sinner’s path won’t fully close if the tough Harris pulls off the mild upset but he won’t squeeze past idle Norrie into the effective #9 slot with the Antwerp title.

He'd still be an alternative, provided nobody leapfrogs him. Worth it to have someone else pay for the ticket home.

 

[James P]

I'm unironically excited seeing these young guys battle it out these last 3-4 weeks for the chance to play in Turin. Keeps me interested in the down portion of the season.

 

[stringertom]

He'd still be an alternative, provided nobody leapfrogs him. Worth it to have someone else pay for the ticket home.

You mean alternate at Torino? Way too early to project how #9-#12 looks in the end.

The next step in reading the tea leaves is to see the Vienna draw and where everyone falls into place as hurdle or hurdler. It’s one stacked competition when you have Tiafoe the #1 seed in qualifying.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

I like the two Miami finalists. Sinner <3s some indoor HC (2x Sofia champion). Hurkacz has all the tools to thrive indoors as well (Metz champion).

It’s really tight and the path from Moscow/Antwerp to Stockholm in order to be in at Torino is like Around The Continent In 30 Days. Lots of twists, turns and road hazards. It’s crazy that a match or two in Stockholm could determine who’s in The Elite 8.

When I looked at the rules for the ATP finals, it said those in the top eight after Paris would qualify - i.e. Stockholm will be irrelevant for Turin. Did I misunderstand that?

 

[mightyjeditribble]

I've gone for Hurkacz and Sinner, more because that's who I'd like to see than anything, really.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Ruud with Harris in Vienna R1 is a pretty brutal draw - unless Harris withdraws due to his deep run in Antwerp?

Hurkacz with Murygoat in R1 is also not great luck for either - Andy would have liked an easy match in R1 for once and I'm sure that Hurkacz also could have done with a more straightforward opener in his bid to secure his Turin spot.

Sinner v Opelka could be a banana skin too, although I think Jannik should go through this if he has enough in the tank after Antwerp. That quarter also has Ruud, so how it plays out could be quite significant for Turin - particularly if Stef continues his slide and bombs out early in the top half.

Norrie v FAA could end the latter's Turin hopes for good, although either is likely to fall to Zverev in the QF.

 

[stringertom]

When I looked at the rules for the ATP finals, it said those in the top eight after Paris would qualify - i.e. Stockholm will be irrelevant for Turin. Did I misunderstand that?

Could it have been amended recently? The projected field includes everyone in this free-for-all for #7 and #8.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Could it have been amended recently? The projected field includes everyone in this free-for-all for #7 and #8.

Currently on the ATP website:

Rankings | Pepperstone ATP Rankings FAQ | ATP Tour | Tennis | ATP Tour | Tennis

Pepperstone ATP Rankings Frequently Asked Questions: How does the men's professional tennis ranking system work and more?

www.atptour.com

"The top seven players in the FedEx ATP Race To Turin after the Rolex Paris Masters on 8 November qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals."

But perhaps they forgot to update? Curious.

 

[stringertom]

Currently on the ATP website:

Rankings | Pepperstone ATP Rankings FAQ | ATP Tour | Tennis | ATP Tour | Tennis

Pepperstone ATP Rankings Frequently Asked Questions: How does the men's professional tennis ranking system work and more?

www.atptour.com

"The top seven players in the FedEx ATP Race To Turin after the Rolex Paris Masters on 8 November qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals."

But perhaps they forgot to update? Curious.

OK. Here’s the source of the confusion: Why would they mention “Top 7” when Torino has a field of Top 8? The “Top 7” could only refer to the Race to Milan, where there is a WC for the #8 slot in the NextGen Finals.

The link you provided has no text but a header that mentions Milan.

The Race to Torino has to include Stockholm results to determine not only perhaps the last two in a field of 8 but also who goes there as alternates.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

OK. Here’s the source of the confusion: Why would they mention “Top 7” when Torino has a field of Top 8? The “Top 7” could only refer to the Race to Milan, where there is a WC for the #8 slot in the NextGen Finals.

The link you provided has no text but a header that mentions Milan.

The Race to Torino has to include Stockholm results to determine not only perhaps the last two in a field of 8 but also who goes there as alternates.

Top 7 because there's a special rule for place 8 regarding to slam winners who didn't qualify but are ranked in top 20 (iirc). It's definitely the second on the race to Turin that I quoted.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

However, Stockholm open themselves said Stockholm counts when they announced the new date:

"In its new position in the final week of the regular ATP season, the Stockholm Open could play a key role as the final qualification spots for the season-ending Nitto ATP Finals are determined, and we look forward to seeing another successful edition of this historic event."

New dates for Stockholm Open 2021 - Stockholm Open

Stockholm Open will, as the last stop before the ATP finals, take place on 6-13 November 2021. Tickets available from May 28.

stockholmopen.se

Also, Wikipedia says:

Players receive places in the following order of precedence:

First, the top 7 players in the ATP Race to Turin on the Monday after the final tournament of the ATP Tour, that is, after the Paris Masters.

Second, up to two 2021 Grand Slam tournament winners ranked anywhere 8th–20th, in ranking order

Third, the eighth ranked player in the ATP rankings

In the event of this totaling more than 8 players, those lower down in the selection order become the alternates. If further alternates are needed, these players are selected by the ATP.

I've checked the ATP rulebook, and indeed this states clearly that it's the last tournament of the ATP tour that matters
So Stockholm counts! And the ATP simply did not update their own information on their own official website. Figures ...

 

[mightyjeditribble]

New standings. Sinner up into 10th with his Antwerp win. Karatsev - and Schwartzmann - add significant points but it's likely too late for them.

7. Ruud 3015
9. Hurkacz 2955
10. Sinner 2845
11. Norrie 2795
12. FAA 2330
13. Karatsev 2280
14. PCB 1920
15. Basilashvili 1885
16. Schwartzman 1855
17. Shapovalov 1835
18. RBA 1630
19. Opelka 1505
20. Harris 1452

 

[stringertom]

New standings. Sinner up into 10th with his Antwerp win. Karatsev - and Schwartzmann - add significant points but it's likely too late for them.

7. Ruud 3015
9. Hurkacz 2955
10. Sinner 2845
11. Norrie 2795
12. FAA 2330
13. Karatsev 2280
14. PCB 1920
15. Basilashvili 1885
16. Schwartzman 1855
17. Shapovalov 1835
18. RBA 1630
19. Opelka 1505
20. Harris 1452

Karatsev is and has been in win or die mode every round since 2R Moscow but has the advantage of being in St. Pete, away from the Vienna minefield made up of the fine young cannibals free-for-all. It’s conceivable that with a title in Petrograd he moves right into #5 behind only Ruud, Hurk, Sinner and Norrie. If those four exit early he could be within 400 points of #8. Paris-Bercy gets real interesting at that point with a lot of momentum on his side.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Jannik Sinner Storms Past Diego Schwartzman For Antwerp Title | ATP Tour | Tennis

Jannik Sinner beats Diego Schwartzman 6-2, 6-2 to win the European Open in Antwerp and become the youngest player since Novak Djokovic in 2007 to win five tour-level titles.

www.atptour.com

Curiously, ATP has Berrettini as not officially qualified yet, while Live-Tennis.eu does. In any case, I think we can agree that three players gaining 985+ points in the last three tournaments while Matteo gains none is not going to happen.

The remaining race is fairly tight, but Ruud & Hurkacz are in pole position, while Sinner and Norrie need a good performance in Vienna more urgently.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

What do people think about how Hurkacz's exit affects the race? It could definitely give Ruud a chance to tighten his hold on one of the places, after navigating the tricky Harris opener.

Norrie and Sinner get a chance to close the gap or even overtake Hurk, making sure they are really in contention.

FAA is still an outside chance of being in the conversation if he has a really good run here. But his path through Norrie and Zverev doesn't look promising ...

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Sinner through without drama. The projected Sinner-Ruud QF could be quite consequential for the race. Unless fatigue becomes a factor, I'd fancy Sinner to win that one. Their only meeting can't in Vienna a year ago, with Jannik prevailing.

 

[stringertom]

Sinner through without drama. The projected Sinner-Ruud QF could be quite consequential for the race. Unless fatigue becomes a factor, I'd fancy Sinner to win that one. Their only meeting can't in Vienna a year ago, with Jannik prevailing.

Don’t overlook Sonego, who kinda likes Vienna IIRC. One match at a time as Sinner prepares for hometown Novak.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Ruud v Sinner a very consequential match for the Turin qualification.

If Ruud wins, he'll enter Paris at least 240 points ahead of all the other contenders. That's a sizeable margin, and for two players to catch him would be rather unlikely.

If Sinner wins, he'll go past Hurkacz into the last qualification spot, and he'll have a chance to pass Ruud too if he goes further.

Not much to see at the bottom of the draw with respect to Turin, although FAA continues his unlikely quest to play himself into contention. He beat Zverev at Wimbledon this year but has never taken a set off him on hard courts.

With Karatsev out in St Pete, he's effectively out of the race unless he wins Paris.

 

[stringertom]

Ruud v Sinner a very consequential match for the Turin qualification.

If Ruud wins, he'll enter Paris at least 240 points ahead of all the other contenders. That's a sizeable margin, and for two players to catch him would be rather unlikely.

If Sinner wins, he'll go past Hurkacz into the last qualification spot, and he'll have a chance to pass Ruud too if he goes further.

Not much to see at the bottom of the draw with respect to Turin, although FAA continues his unlikely quest to play himself into contention. He beat Zverev at Wimbledon this year but has never taken a set off him on hard courts.

With Karatsev out in St Pete, he's effectively out of the race unless he wins Paris.

Also, Sinner has expanded that ultra thin margin he barely enjoyed over Norrie with his win and FAA’s defeat of the lefty from everywhere. It’s up to a robust 50 point lead or 10x the size of the photo finish margin they were headed towards.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Currently it's

Ruud 3105
Hurkacz 2955
Sinner 2925
Norrie 2875

Winner of Ruud/Sinner will get an additional 90/210/410 points, depending on whether he finishes SF/F/W.

FAA could get up to 2830, touching distance of Norrie, with a W in Vienna.

 

[Tennisfan339]

Yeah it's practically over for Auger, Norrie and Karatsev unless they WIN Bercy which is highly unlikely.
This will be between Sinner, Ruud and Hurkacz. 2 of them will play and 1 will be out. They're all very close. Whoever wins the Ruud/Sinner match will have 1 foot & a half in Turin. The other player and Hurkacz will compete in Bercy for the last ticket.

 

[James P]

And then there were six. Everyone else not in this table is eliminated.

Race Position		Name	Age	Nation	Race Points		Next Points (Vienna)	Title Points (Vienna)
7		Casper Ruud	22.8	NOR1	3105	+90
8		Jannik Sinner	20.2	ITA2	3015	+170	3135	3335
10		Hubert Hurkacz	24.7	POL1	2955
11		Cameron Norrie	26.1	GBR1	2875	+35
12		Félix Auger-Aliassime	21.2	CAN1	2420	+90
13		Aslan Karatsev	28.1	RUS3	2280

 

[stringertom]

Yeah it's practically over for Auger, Norrie and Karatsev unless they WIN Bercy which is highly unlikely.
This will be between Sinner, Ruud and Hurkacz. 2 of them will play and 1 will be out. They're all very close. Whoever wins the Ruud/Sinner match will have 1 foot & a half in Turin. The other player and Hurkacz will compete in Bercy for the last ticket.

You left out Norrie, who sits just 80 points behind Hurkacz. Also, if it’s still that close for that final slot, Stockholm results may sort out the free-for-all.

 

[Cortana]

When was the last time a 20yo played the WTF?

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Yeah it's practically over for Auger, Norrie and Karatsev unless they WIN Bercy which is highly unlikely.
This will be between Sinner, Ruud and Hurkacz. 2 of them will play and 1 will be out. They're all very close. Whoever wins the Ruud/Sinner match will have 1 foot & a half in Turin. The other player and Hurkacz will compete in Bercy for the last ticket.

Mostly agree, although I don't think Norrie is quite out of it yet - a SF in Paris could be enough. He'll need a friendly draw though and some help from the results of the others.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

When was the last time a 20yo played the WTF?

Zverev in 2017?

 

[Forgive Me Father]

The Paris draw is a bit of a bummer.

Sinner is much likelier to lose early than Hurkacz, sending Hurkacz to the WTF.

 

[Forgive Me Father]

So is Sinner ahead of Ruud right now?

 

[Aabye5]

So is Sinner ahead of Ruud right now?

I was confused, too, but I think depending on this match (SF), Janny will end up either a few points ahead of Ruud or 10 points behind Ruud.

 

[James P]

So is Sinner ahead of Ruud right now?

I was confused, too, but I think depending on this match (SF), Janny will end up either a few points ahead of Ruud or 10 points behind Ruud.

Sinner is 90 behind Ruud at the moment. Wins this match, adds 120, so he'll be 30 points ahead of Ruud in the Race.

 

[Aabye5]

Sinner is 90 behind Ruud at the moment. Wins this match, adds 120, so he'll be 30 points ahead of Ruud in the Race.

By at the moment, you mean today, right? Not based on the pre-tournament points?

 

[James P]

By at the moment, you mean today, right? Not based on the pre-tournament points?

His live ranking. His ranking in between his QF win and the result of this SF in Vienna.

 

[I Am Finnish]

The Paris draw is a bit of a bummer.

Sinner is much likelier to lose early than Hurkacz, sending Hurkacz to the WTF.

What is his potential opponents?

 

[James P]

That changed a lot. Bad loss by Jannik.

 

[Aabye5]

What is his potential opponents?

Alcaraz for Sinner, and Struff for Hurkacz.

 

[Aabye5]

Rafa will end the year outside the top 10 after 6000+ days. Zed inches closer to Tsitsipas. And the final two spots in Torino are still open for the taking. Bring on Bercy!

 

[Baseline_Bungle]

May very well come down to Stockholm. Which is fun and all, but also a little bit ridiculous. This really should have been planned better.

 

[James P]

Rafa will end the year outside the top 10 after 6000+ days. Zed inches closer to Tsitsipas. And the final two spots in Torino are still open for the taking. Bring on Bercy!

No he won't. He's still going to be in the top 10. Rublev 100% will pass him by season's end, but nobody else likely will. If you're talking about the Race, that won't effect the "top 10 for 6000+ days."

 

[Aabye5]

No he won't. He's still going to be in the top 10. Rublev 100% will pass him by season's end, but nobody else likely will. If you're talking about the Race, that won't effect the "top 10 for 6000+ days."

Ah, is the because of the Covid rules? Normally, the Race == Ranking by end of year, right?

 

[James P]

Ah, is the because of the Covid rules? Normally, the Race == Ranking by end of year, right?

Yup

 

[James P]

This is where the race stands going into Paris and how each potential permutation can form at the masters tournament:

Race Position	Name	Age	Nation	Current ATP Race Points	Paris 1R	Paris 2R	Paris 3R	Paris QF	Paris SF	Paris F	Paris W
7	Casper Ruud	22.8	NOR1	3105	N/A	3105	3185	3275	3455	3695	4095
8	Jannik Sinner	20.2	ITA2	3015	N/A	3015	3095	3185	3365	3605	4005
10	Hubert Hurkacz	24.7	POL1	2955	N/A	2965	3045	3135	3315	3555	3955
11	Cameron Norrie	26.1	GBR1	2865	2865	2900	2945	3035	3215	3455	3855
12	Félix Auger-Aliassime	21.2	CAN1	2420	2430	2465	2510	2600	2780	3020	3420
13	Aslan Karatsev	28.1	RUS3	2280	2290	2325	2370	2460	2640	2880	3280

This is how Stockholm can effect the race. I'm just adding the potential points added, as opposed to the ATP Race Points. Notice it isn't a straightforward +250 for a win, no matter what (due to tournaments being replaced with better results). Zverev, Ruud, Hurkacz, and Sinner are currently slated for byes:

Race Position	Name	Age	Nation	Current ATP Race Points	Stockholm 1R	Stockholm 2R	Stockholm QF	Stockholm SF	Stockholm F	Stockholm W
7	Casper Ruud	22.8	NOR1	3105	0	0	0	+45	+105	+205
8	Jannik Sinner	20.2	ITA2	3015	0	0	0	+45	+105	+205
10	Hubert Hurkacz	24.7	POL1	2965	0	0*	+45	+90	+150	+250
11	Cameron Norrie	26.1	GBR1	2865	0	0	0	+45	+105	+205
12	Félix Auger-Aliassime	21.2	CAN1	2430	0	+10	+35	+80	+140	+240
13	Aslan Karatsev	28.1	RUS3	2290	0	+20	+45	+90	+150	+250

(* Because Hurkacz is expected to get a bye, he will earn nothing for losing in the 2R. If he gets bumped out of the bye, unlikely, he'd earn +20 in the 2R)

 

[mehdimike]

No he won't. He's still going to be in the top 10. Rublev 100% will pass him by season's end, but nobody else likely will. If you're talking about the Race, that won't effect the "top 10 for 6000+ days."

Is there any chance of Rafa remaining in the top 10 in the Race too?!

 

[James P]

Is there any chance of Rafa remaining in the top 10 in the Race too?!

It's possible. Hurkacz only needs 21 points to pass him, though. And Norrie needs 121, FAA needs 556 (very unlikely), Karatsev needs 696 (also very unlikely). He's in 9th now, I suspect Hurkacz will pass him, Norrie is about a 50/50 chance, the other two probably less than a 5% chance.

Tbh, since he's not going to Turin it's pretty irrelevant, as far as I can tell.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Is there any chance of Rafa remaining in the top 10 in the Race too?!

Who cares? He's not playing until 2022.

 

[mehdimike]

Who cares? He's not playing until 2022.

Since that would be funny to me. He played only 7 tourneys including City Open and just imagine he somehow stayed in the top ten

 

[mightyjeditribble]

The four main guys left in the race (Ruud, Sinner, Hurkacz, Norrie) are conveniently distributed in the four quarters of the draw. This wasn't a given, since Norrie is seeded outside of the top 8, but he got drawn into Rublev's section of the draw, who is #5 seed and already qualified.

(Nb. Berrettini is missing the Paris tournament with a stiff neck as a "precaution" and states that he wants to be ready for the WTF.)

So the first goal of these four guys must surely be to reach the QF. Norrie, not being a top 8 seed, has to play the first round (which he is currently comfortably leading against Delbonis). Rublev has not had the greatest form recently, but getting Rublev/Sonego/Fritz in R3 is not the easiest path to the QF. Opelka could be a banana skin in R2 if he serves well, although he hasn't exactly set the world on fire recently, and might not get past Krajinovic.

Hurkacz could also have a challenging R3 against FAA/Murray/Brooksby.

Sinner got a tough potential R2 clash with Alcaraz. His potential R3 opponent PCB beat him in their only match in 2020 Rotterdam, but Sinner is a very different player now.

Ruud, who is in pole position in the race, may have the easiest route to the QF. Tiafoe/Schwartzman (potential R3 opponents) have been in good form recently, but Tiafoe may be tired after Vienna, and in any case he is a streaky player so I'm not sure he'll string two weeks of top-level play together.

If they do make the QFs, then Hurkacz has drawn the jackpot, fallen in Tsitsipas's quarter who has not been in great form recently. Stef leads the H2H 6-2, but Hurkacz won their most recent meeting on the way to his Miami title.

But the first target for all four will be to reach the QF. There are plenty of possibilities to slip up, and I doubt all four will make it. If Ruud reaches at least the QF and none of the others makes a semi, then he should be pretty secure. If Norrie loses before the QF, then he will be out of serious contention. The final decision is unlikely to come until Stockholm.